The Sunday slate was back to being unkind to me with an overtime loss (thanks Michael Crabtree) and three teams that won their game without covering. If a couple of those close calls go the other way, then my 6-9 week would look a bit nicer, though. I feel pretty good about this week now that we've got something of a sample size with each team, so maybe this will finally be the start of a run.
Eagles -3.5 at Giants
I forgot to tweet out my pick this time because I was too busy tilting as a Odell Beckham fantasy owner facing what felt like the entire Philly team across a couple of leagues. Rooting for a team to win but its players to do poorly is not great, Bob.
Chargers -1.5 at Browns
I know this exact matchup was what gave Hue Jackson his only win in the two seasons before this one, but I also know that Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and other Chargers veterans remember that, as well. Cleveland is a better team now, but I don't think LA will let that slip up happen again, even with the early East Coast start.
Texans -7.5 versus Bills
Buffalo has been hanging in games thanks to turnovers, but that isn't sustainable, especially on the road against an explosive offense. And although Houston's backfield is a a little banged up, their defensive front can win this game on its own since the Bills best offense seems to just be Josh Allen runs.
Panthers +1.5 at Redskins
Did we all see the same game on Monday night? Sure, Carolina blew their big lead before Graham Gano's field goal to win their game, but Washington looked dreadful in just about all phases. This should be another big Christian McCaffrey game, and Washington doesn't have any threats like Beckham last week to keep pace.
Bears -3.5 at Dolphins
We don't know how Matt Nagy's team will perform after a bye, but if he's anything like his mentor Andy Reid, this should be a big win. Mitchell Trubisky had the game of his life before the off week, and they just need him to be solid to take care of business on the road against a Miami team that's regressing back to their talent level. Who knows, maybe Khalil Mack will even change the game himself with a strip sack in a fifth straight game.
Bengals -2.5 versus Steelers
The team Miami lost to wasn't especially convincing again, but they've been getting the job done. Andy Dalton is capable of outdueling Ben Roethlisberger, especially with how the latter tends to perform on the road, and I'm not buying Pittsburgh's revitalized defense from last week just yet.
Raiders +3.5 versus Seahawks (in London)
It seems like anything can happen in these foreign games, and these Oakland players have some experience in them the last couple of years. They may have some trouble stopping the run, but I don't trust Seattle's offense to be consistent enough away from home. Derek Carr hasn't exactly been the picture of reliability either, but he should be able to move the ball in this matchup.
Colts +2.5 at Jets
Maybe picking against New York at home will cost me again, but Sam Darnold only completed 10 passes in that game. Even with Indy decimated by injuries, I think they're the better team, so I'm happy to take any points with them. They are at least getting Marlon Mack back to try and spark the running game.
Vikings -10.5 versus Cardinals
Minnesota looked more like the team we expected last week, and I expect them to be ready for a big underdog coming to town this time after that Buffalo fiasco a few weeks ago. Josh Rosen was hurt by drops but also was a bit erratic in his first road start, and now he's facing a much tougher opponent. No problem laying the points.
Falcons -3.5 versus Buccaneers
Speaking of points, there are sure to be lot of them with these teams involved. I'm worried about Atlanta's decimated defense against a team coming off a bye, but they are home for Jameis Winston's first start of the season. And they still have more talent at corner than Tampa's unit that is bound to give up the monster Julio Jones game that's surely coming.
Broncos +7.5 versus Rams
I've gone back and forth on this one because it's more than a touchdown on the road again for LA, who barely won last week. Having Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp cleared from their concussions should mean they win, but with reports of snow in Denver, I'm going to take the home 'dogs to at least cover.
Titans +2.5 versus Ravens
Both teams are coming off of bad, close losses, but I'm stunned that Tennessee is an underdog at home here. If Nick Williams, who has since been cut, didn't drop a touchdown, they would've had a six point lead that wouldn't allow Buffalo to have been so conservative on the game-winning field goal drive that took up the last 4:43 of the game. Meanwhile, Baltimore should've avoided OT if not for the aforementioned Crabtree drop, but they were sloppy on the road like the Titans. I'm taking the home team with the points.
Jaguars -3.5 at Cowboys
Blake Bortles was also turnover prone on the road last week, but he made some plays, as well. If T.J. Yeldon can keep up the good work filling in for Leonard Fournette, there shouldn't be too much pressure for Bortles to win the game himself given that their elite defense is facing the Dallas offense.
Patriots -3.5 versus Chiefs
The unstoppable Pat Mahomes machine hasn't been quite as unstoppable the last couple of weeks and now has to travel to New England to try and match points with Tom Brady. Because with Justin Houston now hurt, that Kansas City defense is sure to provide little resistance against him. And if you want a little extra narrative, Bill Belichick has had a long week to prepare after their TNF win, and they're looking to avenge that opening night disaster from last season.
Packers -9.5 versus 49ers
I will not take the points with C.J. Beathard on the road. I will not take the points with C.J. Beathard on the road. I will not take the points with C.J. Beathard on the road. I will not--
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