Road Favorites
Chiefs -8.5 at Browns
It finally happened: Hue Jackson was relieved of his duties after a 3-36-1 stint. And he still had the gall to try and pass off the blame this already about not getting the players he wanted "the first two years" as if he knew exactly which quarterbacks would work out. This, from the man who tried to trade 2nd AND 3rd round picks for A.J. freaking McCarron, who was in the last year of his rookie deal anyway. I'd say this team has nowhere to go but up now, but it's not exactly like they're in much better hands with Gregg Williams. Sorry if we don't take your word on this one, Gregg.
— Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) November 2, 2018
Bears -5.5 at Bills
The CBS Sports line being released before it was on the board in Vegas due to Derek Anderson's injury is fortuitous here, but let's be honest: there's zero percent chance I'd be taking Buffalo in this spot. No matter who is under center, they have no functional passing game, which is just a bit of a problem in the modern NFL. That's especially true against a Chicago defense that still haven't allowed a rushing touchdown.
Road Underdogs
Raiders +3.5 at 49ers
I continued my streak of having the wrong pick in San Francisco games as I underestimated just how little fight Oakland has left in it after losing so many of their best players. This game needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but there's no denying that Nick Mullens was impressive in his NFL debut with his confidence in distributing the ball to the receivers Kyle Shanahan schemes open. Given C.J. Beathard's lack of pocket presence and unwillingness to let it rip at times, things could get interesting as far as who Jimmy Garoppolo's backup will be in the future.
Falcons +1.5 at Redskins
Washington has quietly been on a roll and is at home against a team that doesn't tend to fare too well outdoors, so why am I picking against them? Atlanta's offense is just so much more explosive on offense, and hopefully their beleaguered defense can get just enough stops to pull out a win. It may also be telling that the home team isn't getting the typical field goal advantage, indicating that the Falcons are the better team in a vacuum.
Jets +3.5 at Dolphins
As Rich Hribar points out, New York hasn't been effective on the ground since their 323 yard explosion against Denve, BUT Miami has been struggling against the run in their past five games. I'll lean towards the Jets defense and take the points here.
Texans +2.5 at Broncos
I know this game is in Denver, but I was still a little surprised that they're favored here considering how these teams have been playing. Even if Demaryius Thomas isn't quite up to speed with his new team to hurt his old team, I still like Deshaun Watson's chances of outplaying Case Keenum. And while the Broncos offensive line has been exceptional at run blocking, they could have issues against J.J. Watt and this pass rush.
Chargers +1.5 at Seahawks
This one is a little more understandable with Seattle's homefield advantage and their improved play of late, but LA is a much better team to me, plain and simple. You can't expect Russell Wilson's career high 8.8% touchdown rate to be sustainable, and I just don't expect him to match points with Philip Rivers in this matchup.
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| It was around this time last year when Keenan Allen exploded down the stretch. |
I might regret picking against Dallas at home again, but this is too many points to be laying against a decent team. Unless Amari Cooper has already made their offense more dynamic, I don't see them pulling away from Tennessee, and with Marcus Mariota's grip improving over the bye week, I can see them winning outright.
Home Favorites
Vikings -5.5 versus Lions
While I don't love having to lay this many points in a tough division game, especially with Stefon Diggs questionable, Minnesota should be able to bounce back at home against a Golden Tate-less Detroit. Getting Dalvin Cook back, even in a limited capacity, will help them take advantage of this soft Lions run defense.
Ravens -3.5 versus Steelers
Another divisional game with a higher spread than I would like, but we all know how Ben Roethlisberger does in these early road starts. Baltimore already won handily in Pittsburgh earlier in the year, and they're a strong team at home to boot. And although Pittsburgh's pass defense has improved, I'm expecting another deep ball or two for John Brown.
Panthers -6.5 versus Buccaneers
Sure, why not one more divisional game with a large spread? I'm less worried about this one, though, with Cam Newton and this passing game clicking as the worst pass defense coming to town. There's a chance Ryan Fitzpatrick turns this into a shootout, but there's just as good of a chance that he turns into a turnover machine again.
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| Here's hoping that Carolina continues to feature their #1 pick, D.J. Moore. |
Like this spread in Vegas, I've gone back and forth on this one. In the end, I see Drew Brees outscoring Jared Goff in the Superdome. The New Orleans run defense will probably be Todd Gurley's stiffest test, and I'm counting on that slowing down this offensive machine just enough.
Patriots -6.5 versus Packers
Taking this many points in a possible shootout was really tempting, especially with Aaron Rodgers on that side, but New England is just too good at home. #FreeAaronJones should finally come to fruition in the wake of his big game and the Ty Montgomery trade, so things could certainly get interesting. However, it's looking like his counterpart Sony Michel will be making his return to help take some pressure off of Tom Brady. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix also being traded will likely be felt on the back end of Green Bay's defense, and this is probably the worst week to have a hole at safety.
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