Due to some personal matters and the Santa Cruz Warriors season starting, this will be an abridged version of my picks. Last week was another successful week at 9-4, and I would have actually gotten to .500 on the season had I not chickened out with my Patriots pick.
Road Favorites
Saints -4.5 at Bengals
New Orleans made their case that they're the best team in the league last week, and while I'm not ready to declare that just yet, getting this nice road win would go a long way. I don't fully trust them away from the Superdome, but I can't take Cincinnati without their best player, A.J. Green.
Falcons -4.5 at Browns
It's another dome team on the road, and I'm much more comfortable with this one considering the opponent. Gregg Williams' beaten down defense will have a tough time slowing down this surging Atlanta attack.
Chargers -9.5 at Raiders
This is a lot of points in a divisional road game, but Oakland has seemingly packed it in for this first year of the second Jon Gruden regime. Hopefully LA replacing Caleb Sturgis at kicker will make their games less stressful since they're looking like one of the best teams in the league.
Road Underdogs
Cardinals +16.5 at Chiefs
I already hate this pick, but it's just so many points against an Arizona team that might have signs of life with new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. I like Kansas City to have a big lead early (the -10 in the first half makes sense) but can already picture the garbage time touchdown.
Jaguars +3.5 at Colts
Both teams are coming off of a bye, and an interesting nugget from Fabian Sommer is that home teams after the off week are 67-82-2 against the spread since 2010. In what should be a tough divsional game, I'm taking the points with Jacksonville in what's seemingly a make or break game for their season.
Seahawks +10.5 at Rams
While I think LA will bounce back and win at home, I learned my lesson about laying too many points in this matchup when these teams first met.
Giants +3.5 at 49ers
I'm trying to stay levelheaded with the Mullens Mania since his impressive debut was against the Raiders, so while I'd lean towards San Francisco winning at home, I don't feel comfortable laying more than a field goal with them yet. After all, Odell Beckham Jr. could take over this game by himself against their inconsistent pass defense.
Home Underdogs
Titans +7.5 versus Patriots
Tennessee is too good of a team to be getting this many points at home, even if it is against New England, who haven't been as surgical on the road. With former Patriot Dion Lewis taking control of the backfield, this offense should be able to keep pace to at least cover.
Home Favorites
Steelers -3.5 versus Panthers
Turns out I didn't need to be as worried as I was.
Jets -7.5 versus Bills
Josh McCown filling in for an injured Sam Darnold might actually help New York given the rookie's recent struggles. In any case, you know I'm basically picking against Buffalo every week, especially on the road.
Bears -6.5 versus Lions
This almost feels too easy with how these teams are playing because Chicago's defense at home should give Detroit the same kind of trouble as Minnesota last week. Hopefully Allen Robinson can get back involved in the offense now that he seems to be back healthy.
Buccaneers -2.5 versus Redskins
I've made a season of picking against Tampa's defense, but this might be an unstoppable force versus an immovable object with Washington missing four offensive lineman. With the Washington corners getting burned most weeks, this should be a bounce back spot for Mike Evans.
Packers -9.5 versus Dolphins
Green Bay collapsed in the fourth quarter in Foxborough but are now back at home against a much less threatening AFC East team. I'll lay however many points it takes to have Aaron Rodgers against Brock Osweiler.
Eagles -6.5 versus Cowboys
I know I quoted that stat about home teams coming off a bye, but it doesn't mean that all three of Cincy, Indy, and Philly will fall short. In fact, with the Eagles getting healthier, I think this is when they start to pull away from the rest of the NFC (L)East.
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