Saturday, December 21, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 14-15 2024

As we near the end of the NFL season, injuries and benchings are happening across the league with some interesting fallout for surrounding players. There are also still some developments in the outcome of the many trades that happened this year, so that's where I come in.

Like I always say, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The Jaguars passing attack has seen a lot of change in the second half of the season between Evan Engram missing time with hamstring and labrum injuries, Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone in Week 8, Gabe Davis suffering a torn meniscus in Week 11, and Trevor Lawrence missing time with an injury to his shoulder injury and then a concussion. Just about the only constant has been star rookie Brian Thomas, and even he was affected by a chest injury, although it didn't cost him any games.

    While I was excited about him in my pre-season rookie wide receiver rankings, I wasn't high on him enough because he more than looks the part of an alpha WR. Overall on the season he is averaging 15.33 points while playing 77.47% of Jacksonville's snaps, running a route on 83.76% of the drop backs, and earning a 22.76% target share, and he's really come on of late. It may be due to fellow perimeter threat Davis going down, getting past the chest injury in Week 8 that immediately saw him with three straight target shares below 15%, or just backup quarterback Mac Jones locking onto him. In any case, Thomas is averaging 20.35 with 86.97%/93.17%/30.07% splits from Week 11 on, and he's poised to finish strong in the fantasy semifinals and championship against the Raiders and Titans, respectively.
    Another young player who has stepped up for them is second year tight end Brenton Strange. Last year's 2nd round pick basically assumes Engram's role whenever the veteran is out, and he's looked solid. Between Weeks 2-5 and now 15, Strange is averaging 10.86 points with a 75.83% snap rate, 70.67% route participation, and 16.67% target share in his five games as the primary TE.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

2024-25 NBA Trade Tracker

I'm pretty sure this is the earliest that I've had to start this post, but teams aren't wasting any time with most free agents from this past summer becoming trade eligible on December 15th. Like last year's edition, I'll be adding deals to the top of this post as they happen so that the latest news is easily accessible and including in parentheses who broke the story and when. Future draft pick details are typically from RealGM.com, and the salary figures are from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com with future money color-coded in case of a player option, team option, or not fully guaranteed.

Utah bets on upside (Shams 1/21)

Jazz receive:
2031 Suns 1st round pick

Suns receive:
2025 1st round pick (Worse of Cavaliers or Wolves)
2027 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, or Wolves)
2029 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, or Wolves)


Phoenix wastes no time adding big man help (Shams 1/15)

Suns receive:
Nick Richards$5,000,000$5,000,000
2025 2nd round pick (Worse of Nuggets or 76ers)

Hornets receive:
Josh Okogie$8,250,000$7,750,000
2026 Nuggets 2nd round pick
2031 Nuggets 2nd round pick
2031 Suns 2nd round pick

DLo returns to another former team (Shams 12/29)

Lakers receive:
Dorian Finney-Smith$14,922,980$15,378,480
Shake Milton$2,875,000$3,000,000$3,287,406

Nets receive:
D'Angelo Russell$18,692,307
Maxwell Lewis$1,891,857$2,221,677$2,406,205
2027 (conditional), 2030, and 2031 Lakers 2nd round picks

Golden State replaces injured guard (Shams 12/14)

Warriors receive:
Dennis Schroder$13,025,250
2025 Heat 2nd round pick (protected 31-37)

Nets receive:
De'Anthony Melton$12,822,000
Reece Beekman (Two-Way)
2026 and 2028 Hawks 2nd round picks
2029 Warriors 2nd round pick

Another trade that's pretty much reported as done and will be finalized once Melton is trade-eligible tomorrow. He was a great fit for the Warriors as a 3+D guard who can act as an ancillary creator but unfortunately suffered a partial ACL tear last month, so his one-year contract at the MLE level became an obvious trade piece. Golden State being hard-capped at the First Apron limits their trade flexibility, so having to only give up 2nd round draft capital to add the proven secondary playmaker that they need is a really solid move. I would guess that the '26 and '28 Hawks 2nd rounders that they own are a part of this and that Shams' later report of getting a 2nd back will be a protected pick, possibly Miami's (protected 31-37) this year.

12/15 Update: Anthony Slater confirms that it is exactly the two Hawks picks and protected Heat pick involved as I speculated, along with the inclusion of Beekman that I mentioned below from Fischer's report. The terms are now updated above.

I think Schroder has been overrated a bit in the past, but he is more than qualified to be a backup point guard who can also close games next to the star like when he finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting back with the Thunder. He was backing up Chris Paul then, and I would guess that he steps into the role that CP3 had with the Warriors last year, funnily enough. Schroder's 6'7.75" wingspan and outside shooting improving to 37.8% over the past two seasons (34.4% for his career) makes him easier to fit into different lineup combinations, and he could provide the type of spark they need after a 2-7 stretch following their 12-3 start to the season.


It does feel like a little bit of a light return for Brooklyn given the year that Schroder is having, but a cynic might say that he was hurting their chances of tanking too much. At the very least, they're adding to their cache of draft picks instead of simply losing a free agent at the end of the season. Jake Fischer did mention in his report that rookie point guard Reece Beekman could also be heading their way in a rare instance of a player traded while on a Two-Way contract. He was considered a 2nd round prospect at various points of his Virginia career for his defensive prowess, so that could be a sneaky addition to the Nets' return. Beekman is averaging 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks through his first nine G League games, and he could be in line for some point guard minutes at the next level with Schroder out the door.

Indiana adds center depth (Shams 12/13)

Pacers receive:
Thomas Bryant$2,087,519

Heat receive:
2031 2nd round pick swap

This was reported on Friday but can't become official until Sunday since Bryant opted out and re-signed at a slightly lower number over the summer to help lower Miami's luxury tax bill. Now they lower it even more by shipping him out and replacing him with a pro-rated minimum salary, which is understandable considering he's only played 115 total minutes this year after just 441 last season.

Bryant has bounced around a lot in recent years but has had flashes of being a stretch big (35.5% career 3P%) who still helps on the glass. This could be a nice homecoming for the former Hoosier since Indiana has unbelievably lost both James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson to torn Achilles tendons and need another backup big. The addition comes at a pretty minimal cost, and they'll still be able to stay out of the luxury tax.

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 11-13 2024

It's crunch time in the fantasy regular season, and the NFL schedule this year made things a little awkward. Perhaps due to Thanksgiving being so late in November, there were six teams on bye in Week 12, none in Week 13, and then six more now in Week 14 with managers making one last push for a playoff spot. Sometimes you have to be Gio-ing Deep into depth charts.

As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • Partly due to the holiday I haven't had a chance to write recently, and what a run it's been for fringe wide receivers with hyphenated names in that span! Since joining the Saints in Week 9, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has only played 58.4% of the snaps, run a route on 72.31% of the drop backs, and earned a 9.91% target share (11 total)...yet he's scored FOUR touchdowns in five games to average 13.93 points. And this comes after only catching three TDs in 33 games over the past two years on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him and zero in 6 games with Josh Allen and the Bills this year before being released.

    Even if you remove the first game due to MVS still adjusting to his new team, he's only been playing 66.12% of the snaps with a 79.17% route participation and 12.05% target share, so it's hard to believe that he'll keep this scoring up. Finding the end zone four times in his last 10 targets has been impressive, though.

  • Similarly, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored eight times in his last eight games, even dating back to before the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I talked about how Calvin Ridley has taken off since then in my last post, and now in six games as a starter, NWI has averaged 14.6 points with a 93.83% snap rate, 95.09% route participation, and 17.98% target share. That kind of usage is a little easier to trust, even if TD regression is bound to hit. Will Levis has been playing better in the four games since coming back from his shoulder injury, averaging 16.75 points, and with a favorable schedule against the Jaguars twice, Colts, and Bengals, this passing game could determine some fantasy titles.

  • Another passing attack that's been on the rise: the Browns with Jameis Winston, thanks in part to huge volume. They lead the league in drop backs per game with 45.92, and in Winston's five starts that number is 48.2 to help him average 21.34 points. And with the Amari Cooper trade also happening right before this stretch, the other pass catchers are absolutely thriving.

    Jerry Jeudy is averaging 21.68 points, which would be WR2 overall on the season, with 91.53%/96.28%/22.69% rates over these five weeks. That's of course inflated by his insane 235 yard #RevengeGame on MNF, the most ever for a player against his former team, but the fact that it came against the Broncos' previously elite defense makes it even more impressive. It's a bit crazy to think that it came on 13 looks that "only" made for a 22.81% target share in this pass happy offense.

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 9-10 2024

Now that we're over halfway through the NFL regular season, we're really seeing roles emerge. Some have been more recent and/or due to a teammate's injury, and looking at these splits is why I write these posts. As usual, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The most obvious case of a new role is Chase Brown becoming a bell cow running back without Zack Moss, as showcased on TNF to start Week 10. I already wrote about the former starting to take over after Week 4, and from Weeks 4 through 8, Brown averaged 14.54 points while playing 47.16% of the snaps, running a route on 35.75% of the drop backs, earning a 9.87% target share, and seeing 60.95% of the RB carries compared to 8.28 points for Moss with 55.52%/48.04%/10.53%/39.05% rates. Then Moss unfortunately sustained a neck injury that's expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, and Brown has put up 26.7 and 22.4 points while seeing 100% of the RB carries.

    The Bengals made a minor trade for Khalil Herbert at the deadline, but he fumbled what would've been his only carry in his debut. And while he's a shifty back, Herbert's role with the Bears was similar to Brown's with a lack of a receiving role holding him back. At least, that was how Brown was being used because these these past two games he's set new season-highs in route participation (63.41% and then 75%) and target share (13.51% and then an eye-catching 20.37%). The more experienced Moss was getting those opportunities because he's more reliable in pass protection, but now that the second-year 'back is being trusted there, the sky is the limit.

  • Travis Kelce is another player who has taken off since Week 4, which is when Rashee Rice suffered a brutal knee injury on friendly fire during an interception return after just four plays. In the first three games, the star tight end only averaged 5 points with a 13.95% target share despite an 84.97% snap rate and 85.98% route participation. Starting with the game that Rice was injured in, Kelce's splits are now 17.50 points, a massive 31.37%, 81.32%, and 90.08% over the last six contests.

Friday, November 1, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-8 2024

I hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween! With October officially in the books, we're about halfway through the NFL season already. That means there is a good sample size now for the vast majority of players, and with two weeks to look at since my last post, there are plenty of options to choose from. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • After a ridiculously slow start, the tight end position is starting to come on of late across the league, and veteran Zach Ertz is having an underrated campaign among them. Overall, he's averaging a modest 9.31 points despite a nice role with a 20% target share while running a route on 78.84% of Washington's drop backs despite only being in on 67.42% of the snaps. He's not in there to block much, basically, and over the last three weeks he's been more effective with a little bump in usage to average 13.17 with a 70.79% snap rate, 76.27% route participation, and 22.83% target share.

    Some people were excited about rookie Ben Sinnott after he was drafted 53rd overall as the second TE off the board, but Ertz has has absolutely dominated the receiving role for the Commanders. Sinnott has only played 30.87% of the snaps and run a route on 17.06% of drop backs, which has resulted in a minuscule 0.89% target share. Ironically, he went from not even seeing a single target the first six weeks to scoring a touchdown on his first look...but then he went back 0 targets in Week 8.

  • The first TE taken in this draft was of course Brock Bowers, and he's lived up to the "generational" moniker at the position. Already as a rookie he's second in scoring with a 14.09 average while having a 77.13% snap rate, 75.86% route participation, and massive 24.44% target share. Those numbers are even larger over the last five games, which coincides with the last time that top target Davante Adams (hamstring and trade) and #2 TE Michael Mayer (personal reasons) played. Since Week 4, Bowers' splits are 15 points and 82.67%/82.72%/27.67%...and that's with just one (1) touchdown scored so far. 535 receiving yards usually results in more scores, and if the Raiders offense can get a little more competent to give him more chances, he could challenge for TE1 overall status.

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2024

With this week's post a touch later than usual, I'm going to keep it brief. You know the deal by this point of the season: fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • Kenneth Walker III didn't have much success on the ground on TNF (just 32 yards on 14 carries), but he did add 37 yards through the air while setting a career-high with 8 catches. That continues a trend this year with the third-year running back now holding a 14.55% target share per game after that number was below 10% in each of the last two seasons.

    The new Seahawks coaching staff talked about over the offseason about using Walker in the passing game more, and that's come to fruition to give him a much higher floor than before with the 20.9 points last week a great example. Combine that with getting 75% of the RB carries, and you've got an elite RB role.

  • In that same same, George Kittle continued to play like the best tight end in football by hauling in two more touchdowns to give him five on the season already. Scoring in four straight games has him tied for the most TDs in the league despite sitting out Week 3, and he's now averaging 17.26 points per game while the next closest is 13.77.

    This scoring rate may regress to the mean, but Kittle is also just seeing a ton of short-range opportunities with Christian McCaffrey still sidelined. His 7.7 aDOT is slightly below his 7.9 career average and way below last year's 9.9. That could help explain the jump from a 20.18% target share to 23.33% despite lower snap and route shares of 87.13% and 80%. Those are still high-end marks, of course; he's just been banged up a bit more to miss some time. Maybe things change in the second half of the season, but this gap atop the TE rankings had to be called out.

Friday, October 11, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 5 2024

Well, last week's post ended up cursing the Minnesota guys while Dontayvion Wicks couldn't cash in on more great usage (28% target share!), but Josh Downs and Chase Brown continued to earn more work. A few of the guys for this week are on bye, so they won't have go through those kind of swings for at least one weekend.
As always when looking at notable stats across the league, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now is that the #3 overall pick, Drake Maye, is making his first start for the Patriots. The situation around him doesn't project to be great due to the offensive line, but I'm curious to see how their 2nd rounder, Ja'Lynn Polk, does with this change. After mixing in as a part-time player the first three weeks, Polk has played 91.13% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.11% of the drop backs, and earned a 20.97% target share over the last two games. He's only been able to turn that into 8.3 total points, but if he gets 6 or 7 targets again from Maye rather than Jacoby Brissett, maybe better results are on the way. I dug into Polk as a prospect right before the season here.

    Staying in New England, head coach Jerod Mayo made a big deal last week about Rhamondre Stevenson no longer starting due to fumbling in each of the first four games. While Antonio Gibson technically got the start, Stevenson still played the exact same 28 snaps (46.67%) as Gibson and led the team with 12 carries (66.67% of the running back share). Gibson ran a route on 43.24% of drop backs compared to 32.43%, but he only finished with one target to Stevenson's 4 (13.33% target share). Stevenson did get ruled out this morning due to a foot injury, so we'll see how much of the workload Gibson carries this week.

Friday, October 4, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-4 2024

After a quick detour to the NBA side last week due to the stunning trade that went down, Gio-ing Deep is back with more usage notes around the NFL! The sample size is getting a little larger now, so there are more takeaways that you can start to believe in from the data. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The 4-0 Vikings are one of the best surprises of the league so far, thanks in large part to Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones being tremendous free agent signings. The former leads the league in touchdown passes with 11 despite being just 22nd in pass attempts, and his 8.8 yards per attempt ranks 2nd in the league behind only the player he backed up last season, Brock Purdy. Darnold smartly joined a team that runs a similar scheme to what he was in last year, so he's hit the ground running with the kind of efficiency that the 49ers typically have. His current 10.4% touchdown percentage is bound to regress (league average is usually in the 4-5% range), but he can continue to lead a good offense, especially with Jordan Addison back now and TJ Hockenson opening up his practice window to return from injury. Combine that with Darnold's underrated rushing ability, and he could be a viable fantasy quarterback all season.
    Jones is already proving to be one of the best fantasy values of the year now that he's fully healthy again. He hasn't run for a TD since the opener and only added one more through the air so far, yet he's a top-10 running back (18.1 points per game) thanks to his typical efficiency and strong receiving role. After only getting 2 targets in Week 1 due to the blowout nature of the game, Jones has had at least 5 targets every week since, and he has a 19.19% target share on the season. Seeing 65.42% of the snaps and and 68.82% of the RB carries aren't quite as strong of rates, but those did bump up this past week to 82.35% and 88%. Minnesota might've simply been trying to feed him in his return to Green Bay for a #revengegame, but it at least shows that the volume potential is there.

  • On the other side of that game, Dontayvion Wicks had the breakout game that his truthers have been waiting for since best ball draft szn with 5 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. There is important context that the Packers had to throw the ball 54 times as they fell behind 28-0, and Christian Watson only played 9 snaps due to unfortunately suffering a high-ankle sprain on one of Jordan Love's three interceptions.

Saturday, September 28, 2024

Digging into the Knicks-Wolves Blockbuster

Knicks receive:
Karl-Anthony Towns$49,205,800$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192
Draft rights to 2023 #31 pick James Nnjai

Timberwolves receive:
Julius Randle$28,939,680$30,935,520
Donte DiVincenzo$11,445,000$11,990,000$12,535,000
Keita Bates-Diop$2,654,644
2025 Pistons 1st round pick (via Knicks, protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:
DaQuan Jeffries$2,425,404$2,743,776$3,080,917
Charlie Brown Jr$2,237,692$2,546,673$2,874,432
Duane Washington Jr$2,162,607$2,349,576$2,667,944
2025 2nd round pick (Lesser of Nuggets or 76ers, via Wolves)
2026 Warriors 2nd round pick (via Knicks)
2031 Knicks 2nd
$7.2 million in cash considerations

Talk about a Friday night surprise from Shams. I'm still adding updates to the Offseason Tracker, but a stunning blockbuster at this point in the calendar deserves its own post.

On the one hand, there have been some signs that each of these teams could make this type of move. Everyone's been anticipating Minnesota making a cost-cutting move due to extensions for Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels all kicking in this year, particularly with their ownership situation in flux; there have been rumors of NY's interest in Towns ever since his former agent at CAA, Leon Rose, took over basketball operations in 2020; and there's been a lot of speculation about Randle's future ahead of his potential free agency next summer, especially after the team's success while he was injured. But on the other hand, there were not any recent hints of this major of a move for either side as training camps are set to get underway.

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2024

I say it every year, but Week 2 is always one of the most interesting slates of the NFL season since you start to see what might be real from the opener. It's still a small sample size that we're dealing with, but these were some of the observations that stood out most to me through two games. Once again, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The TNF game during into a blowout after Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another scary concussion, but there were a couple of other key notes from the Dolphins offense, as well. The most obvious is that with Raheem Mostert sitting out, De'Von Achane became an absolute workhorse. After being in a rotation as a rookie, even when Mostert was unavailable, Achane was given 22 carries (75.86% of the running back rushes) and 7 targets for a 18.92% target share. He also saw 7 targets (19.44%) in Week 1, so he has a 19.18% target share on the season so far with 26.25 fantasy points per game. Achane has lined up as a receiver on 25 of his 85 (29.41%) of his snaps so far, so he could finish as the #3 passing option in this offense throughout the year.Perhaps the main competition for that role is new "tight end" Jonnu Smith, who also saw 7 targets on Thursday and turned them into 11.3 points. I put that position in quotes because he's basically playing as a big wide receiver, having lined up in the slot or out wide on 45 of his 52 snaps (86.54%) on the season. In Week 2, he was only in on 32 plays for a 41.56% snap rate, but he ran a route on 31 of them for a 68.89% route participation, and through two weeks he's run 48 routes in those 52 snaps (92.31%). So he's on the field to do one thing, and he did it at a much higher frequency than in Week 1 when he only had a 28.17% snap rate, 38.64% route participation, and 5.56% target share. I'm definitely keeping an eye on whether those rates continue to rise.

  • Another new addition to a team is Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, and in Week 2, we saw more of the more open passing attack that was expected like in his previous offenses at the University of Washington. Perhaps it was due to Kenneth Walker being injured, but they increased their drop backs from 28 to 48. The new game plan benefited Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most as he saw 16 looks for a 37.21% target share after just 2 for 8% with the limited optortunities in the opener. His snap rates (79.10% and 82.86%) and route participation (89.29% and 91.67%) have held steady each week, but the team's different approach led to a jump from 3.9 points to 23.7.

Friday, September 13, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2024

The NFL season officially started last week, and so did my football posts after a busy NBA offseason. That was more of a long-term outlook for this year's rookie WR class, and now I'm getting back into my week to week usage notes. These will be check ins about how players are being used; their statistical production, typically with points-per reception (PPR) fantasy points; and how sustainable all of that might be. Fantasy data and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • The Ravens number two tight end, Isaiah Likely, kicking off the season with 9 catches, 111 yards, a touchdown, and almost a last-second game-winner on Thursday was the biggest news of the week. The 24 year old had flashed in his first two years whenever All-Pro Mark Andrews was out, but this coming with them playing together means that Likely could have standalone value. With Baltimore's lack of proven wide receiver depth, there was speculation that he could get a good amount of action with more two-TE sets, and that looks like it will be the case.

    On that note, let's not panic about Andrews despite only getting 2 targets, catching both for 14 yards. He still played 73.75% of the snaps and ran a route on 74.51% of Lamar Jackson's drop backs, which is comparable to the 76.54% and 84.59% in his full games last year. And let's remember his history against Steve Spagnuolo's double teams (see below) and that he's still getting into shape after missing a chunk of training camp after a car accident last month.

    This is more about Likely also being a weapon alongside Andrews. Thursday's star was in on 66.25% of the snaps and 68.63% of the routes while seeing 12 targets for a massive 30% target share. The last part won't stay that high, but first two have room for even more growth. With that amount of playing time and his talent, Likely could easily be the #3 target in this offense along with Andrews and Zay Flowers.

  • The following night, Jayden Reed going for 4 catches, 171 totals yards and two TDs was the biggest takeaway for me, even if the 70 yard TD came from a broken play. How the Packers would utilize all of their weapons was one of the biggest questions of draft season, and we got a lot of answers across the position groups. At WR, Reed is the guy you want, even if he is mostly limited to the slot in three-receiver sets. He scored 33.1 fantasy points despite his 71.64% snap rate, 73.68% route participation, and 18.75% target share all ranking second among their WRs behind Romeo Doubs (86.57%, 89.47%, and 21.88% for 9 points), and the carry that he scored on continued a trend from last year with his versatility.

Thursday, September 5, 2024

NFL Rookie WRs Poised to Contribute in 2024

The NFL returns tonight! And after a little hiatus the last couple of years, I'm bringing back one of my favorite topics that I used to write for The Sports Fan Journal: Which rookie wide receives will contribute the most this season?

There are three factors that I take into consideration for this. The first, and most important, is how productive these prospects were in college. A lot of what I'm looking for is based on JJ Zachariason's research over the years (you should check out his prospect guide on LateRound.com) with market share numbers along with yards per route run (Y/RR) from Pro Football Focus. Next, I'm looking for physical traits shown at the NFL Combine (ideally) or college pro days. Lastly, I'm looking at the situation they landed in, which can be based on the draft capital teams invested in them and/or the amount of available targets there will be. 4for4.com has a very helpful list of targets and air yards that are unaccounted for from last season.

This year's wide receiver class is both strong at the top and deep, which made the order of this list complicated, but hopefully the profiles allow for some nuance with how I'm viewing them.

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. 1st round, 4th overall pick, 1st WR drafted

Imagine taking a Hall of Fame receiver and making his son 3 inches taller and 24 pounds heavier (6'3.25", 209 lbs at the combine) while being arguably being just as fast, and you'll get an idea of how good Marvin Harrison Jr. is. Although he didn't officially test, this year's Biletnikoff Award winner reportedly runs in the high 4.3s with a 3.94 shuttle and 10'8" broad jump, which helped him put up 14 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons.

Harrison's breakout came just a month after he turned 20 as he accounted for 33.33% of Ohio State's receiving touchdowns, 32.57% of their receiving yards, and 28.10% of their receptions in the '22-23 season. Those market shares improved to 53.85% (!!), 35.70%, and 27.35% in the 12 games that he played this past season even with CJ Stroud replaced at quarterback by Kyle McCord, who has since had to transfer to Syracuse. Harrison's efficiency was also outstanding and on the rise with 3.08 and 3.22 yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA) and 3.18 and 3.44 Y/RR (anything over 3 is elite in both metrics).

Harrison is often compared to both AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald, albeit with more speed than both, so it's fitting that he wears the same number as the former (it's pretty cool that he wears #18 in honor of his dad's QB, Peyton Manning) and was drafted to the same team as the latter. Arizona needed a new #1 receiver after the departures of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in back to back years, and they rank 6th in both available targets and available target share from last season. With Kyler Murray another year removed from his torn ACL, the first WR taken in this year's draft will have a more than adequate passer to feed him those vacated looks. I expect big things right out of the gate.

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

2024 NBA Draft Recap

Happy Draft Day! While I'm constantly updating this tracker for all of the moves being made in the NBA offseason, I wanted to have a separate post just for this event to keep things more organized. In somewhat of a surprise, no players already under contract were traded once things kicked off, so that makes things easier. This will just be a list of what each team did for now since there were a lot of moving around the board. Trade news comes courtesy of tweets from Woj, Shams, and Jake Fischer.

Hawks
#1 Zaccharie Risacher
Traded AJ Griffin for #44...then traded #44 and cash for #43 Nikola Durisic


Wizards
#2 Alexandre Sarr
#14 Carlton "Bub" Carrington
Traded #26 and #51 for #24 Kyshawn George


Rockets
#3 Reed Sheppard
Traded #44 for AJ Griffin


Spurs
#4 Stephon Castle
Traded #8 for a 2031 1st round pick and the right to swap 2030 1st round picks (protected for #1)
Traded #35 for cash and #36 Juan Nunez
#48 Harrison Ingram


Pistons
#5 Ron Holland
Traded #53 for Wendell Moore and #37 Bobi Klintman


Hornets
#6 Tidjane Salaun
#42 KJ Simpson


Trail Blazers
#7 Donovan Clingan
Traded #34 for three 2nd round picks (in 2027, 2029, and 2030)
Traded #40 for #52 and cash...then traded #52 for more cash

7/6 Update: Now that the moratorium is over and the deal is official, the Portland press release is out. Not only was the 52nd pick dealt for just cash as previously reported, but the move down from the 40th pick was also just for financial gain. Alrighty then.

Timberwolves
Traded 2031 1st round pick and a 2030 draft swap (protected for #1) for #8 Rob Dillingham
#27 Terrence Shannon
Traded Wendell Moore and #37 for #53...then traded #53 for #57 and a future 2nd...then traded #57 for cash (per Blake Murphy)

7/6 Update: According to the Minnesota press release reveals that they ended up with a future 2nd round pick and the aforementioned cash considerations as the result of their trade downs.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

2024 NBA Offseason Tracker

Well that was quick. The new CBA now allows teams to negotiate with their own free agents the day after the Finals ends, and now after seemingly a one day grace period for the Boston Celtics to enjoy their well-deserved championship, we have our first deal! That's created this tracker earlier than usual, which makes things easier in a way to include draft week trades, and I'll just include draft pick thoughts in a separate post. 6/26 Update: You can find what every team did during the draft HERE.

As usual with these type of posts, I'll be updating constantly to make this your one-stop shop for all of the deals, with the newest transactions at the top. I'll make note of the date when whoever broke the news tweeted it along with my projections of the salaries based on reported contract details, and "Command F" is definitely helpful to find specific players as the deals pour in. Figures for existing contracts in trades usually come from Keith Smith on Spotrac, and stats are from Basketball Reference, RealGM, or the NBA's advanced stats page. The visual key consists of player options/team options/not fully guaranteed

6/30 Update: The NBA announced that the official salary cap came in slightly lower than projected: $140,588,00 with the luxury tax at $170,814,000, the First Apron $178,132,000, and the Second Apron $188,931,000. With next year's cap projected to be $154,647,000, I've updated max contract figures below based on this. Now back to the deals:


Kings sign McDermott (Shams 10/16)
Doug McDermott$2,087,519

It's unclear what kind of guarantee the veteran shooter received, but given this point of the calendar, I'm guessing that it's not just a camp deal. Perhaps a partial guarantee to provide flexibility for a midseason trade would make sense after Sacramento opened up space with the trade earlier in the week.

10/17 Update: Scotto confirmed my suspicion that McDermott got a partial guarantee that's more than just a typical camp deal with $750,000 locked in.

Sacramento sheds salary on San Antonio (Shams 10/14)

Spurs receive:
Jalen McDaniels$4,741,800
2031 2nd round pick
Cash consideration

Kings receive:
2025 2nd round pick (protected 31-55)

Scotto added the details on the picks as well as cash involved to help cover McDaniels' salary, which reportedly will be waived. After taking him as part of the Vezenkov salary dump, now Sacramento gives themselves a little more breathing room under the luxury tax. San Antonio isn't close to having to worry about that, so they used part of the Room MLE as a trade exception to add yet another future pick.

Magic extend Carter: 3 years, $59 million (Shams 10/7)
Wendell Carter Jr.$11,950,000$10,850,000$18,209,877$19,666,667$21,123,457

WCJ will now always be a part of NBA reporting history as Shams' first scoop since switching to ESPN. Since Carter's previous extension was so cheap, this is the most that he could receive in an extension with the starting salary 140% of the estimated average salary.

10/8 Update: Scotto adds that the last year is a team option.

Pelicans extend Alvarado: 2 years: $9 million (Shams 9/28)
Jose Alvarado$1,988,598$4,500,000$4,500,000

The former undrafted free agent and Two-Way player gets a safe guarantee with the player option to potentially make a lot more if he can stay healthy. This could be structured as $4,326,923 and $4,673,077, but it would make sense to have a flat rate for Alvarado to get a little more right away before opting out of this cheap deal.

Minnesota and New York pull off stunning swap of Kentucky big men (Shams 9/27)

Knicks receive:
Karl-Anthony Towns$49,205,800$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192

Timberwolves receive:
Julius Randle$28,939,680$30,935,520
Donte DiVincenzo$11,445,000$11,990,000$12,535,000
Keita Bates-Diop$2,654,644
2025 Pistons 1st round pick (protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:
TBD draft compensation to absorb salary, including DaQuan Jeffries

I originally started putting in a summary here, but this big of a deal deserved its own post.

Clippers extend Mann: 3 years, $47 million (Shams 9/27)
Terence Mann$11,423,077$15,500,000$15,666,667$16,000,000

Entering the last year of his bargain 2 year, $22 million extension, Mann could've received as much as $51.8 million over this same period, so it seems he's taking the guaranteed offer on the table now again. Marks reports that the first year starts at $15.5 million, so I'm guessing that each year will be relatively flat instead of the standard 8% raises for a $14,506,173/$15,666,667/$16,827,160 structure. And as Bontemps pointed out, Mann is still trade eligible immediately since this wasn't too high of an extension.

76ers extend Embiid: 3 years, $193 million (Shams 9/20)
Joel Embiid$51,415,938$55,224,526$59,539,095$64,302,223$69,065,350

Embiid had a $59,033,114 player option for the '26-'27 season that will be declined and replaced by the first year of this extension that's projected to be for slightly more. That's based on the maximum 10% cap increases the next two years to about $170.1 million and then taking 35% of that as a max player with 10+ years of experience.

Knicks sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/15)
Marcus Morris$2,087,519

Like with Shamet and Okeke, I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed deal to battle for New York's last roster spot. Morris has a more proven track record, though, so I could be wrong with the Knicks just willing to eat a guaranteed salary at final cuts.

Cavs re-sign Okorro: 3 years, $38 $33 million (Woj 9/14)
Isaac Okoro$11,728,395$12,666,667$13,604,938

Being a restricted free agent likely tempered Okoro's market, so keeping this a short deal at the relatively low average value could allow him to hit unrestricted free agency sooner. It looks like Cleveland will be a luxury tax team now barring a trade to shed a little bit of salary.

Update: Chris Fedor adds that it's actually for $33 million with an additional $5 million in incentives. which means that the starting salary will definitely be below what Okoro's $11,828,974 qualifying offer was. The Cavs really used the hammer of restricted free agency here to get a good deal.

Isaac Okoro$10,185,185$11,000,000$11,814,815

Knicks sign Shamet: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 9/14)
Landry Shamet$2,087,519

I'm guessing that this is non-guaranteed as he battles for the last roster spot since New York already has 14 guaranteed deals.

Update: The Knicks officially announced the signing as an Exhibit 9 contract, which is non-guaranteed.

Mavs re-sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/7)
Markieff Morris$2,087,519

The veteran forward's return gives an already deep Dallas roster another front court option and should round out the option. AJ Lawson's non-guaranteed deal could be in danger now to get them down to 15 players by cut day.

Nuggets (finally) extend Murray: 4 years, $208 million (Woj 9/7)
Jamal Murray$36,016,200$46,394,100$50,105,628$53,817,156$57,528,684

I already had a post for this way back on June 27th when Shams reported that the two sides were close, but I'm putting it here again now that's a done deal with the updated numbers. As expected, it's a touch lower than what I originally had since the cap came in slightly lower than projections.

Clippers extend Zubac: 3 years, $58.6 million (Woj 8/30)
Ivica Zubac$11,743,210$18,086,420$19,533,333$20,980,247

After L.A. used a team option to leverage a bargain extension for Zubac last time, this is much more in line with the current center market.

Pacers extend McConnell: 4 years, $45 million (Woj 8/30)
T.J. McConnell$9,300,000$10,044,643$10,848,214$11,651,786$12,455,357

Going four years for a player who is already 32 is a little questionable, but it could've been to help keep the annual salaries lower after McConnell's great last couple of years.

9/3 Update: Marks reports that the third year is only partially guaranteed for $5 million and that the last year is a team option that then becomes only partially guaranteed for $5 million if picked up. 

Warriors extend Curry: 1 year, $62.6 million (Woj 8/29)
Stephen Curry$55,761,216$59,606,817$62,587,158

This 5% raise for just one year was the most that Golden State could offer the franchise icon due to the Over-38 rule. After a lot of the fanbase has complained about them not going all-in to try to contend with Curry still on the roster, this is a show of good trust between the two sides going forward.

Celtics sign Walker: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/28)
Lonnie Walker$2,087,519

We're at the point in the offseason where solid veterans have to settle for non-guaranteed minimums, and these updates might be coming to an end. If Boston decides to go with a full 15 man roster, Walker would be a some nice perimeter depth.

Pelcians sign Green: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/20)
Javonte Green$2,087,519

Green has been an underrated wing that could help fill out New Orleans' bench well, and Andrew Lopez reports that this deal is fully guaranteed.

76ers sign Yabusele: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams that it was close, then Scotto 8/18)
Guerschon Yabusele$2,087,519

The 16th pick in the 2016 draft has been generating buzz since his standout Olympics performance, where he averaged 14 points in 23:19 minutes as the second-leading scorer for France...and had one of the highlights of the tournament in the finals.
It was up in the air if Yabusele would try to make it back to the NBA since he reportedly has a $2.5 million buyout with Real Madrid, and Philadelphia can only contribute $825,000 towards that, per John Hollinger. That means that most of this season's salary will go towards the buyout since Yabusele only lasted two seasons in his first NBA stint to qualify for the salary above, but the 28 year old could increase his future earning potential by filling a hole for this new-look Sixers squad. While I think the "French Draymond" moniker from when he was drafted isn't that accurate, Yabusele can bring some tough defense and more size (6'8", 260 lbs) than their other forward options. He's shot 41% (345 of 841) on threes across all competitions the past three seasons in Europe, and if he can come close to that with the NBA line, he'll have much more staying power this time around.

Jazz sign Mills: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/14)
Patty Mills$2,087,519

As with other veterans of 10+ years, he'll earn $3,303,771 with the subsidized cap hit.

Jazz sign Mykhailiuk: 4 yeras, $15 million (Woj 8/9)
Svi Mykhailiuk$3,488,372$3,662,791$3,837,209$4,011,628

Going this many years for such a low cost (his minimum as a six-year vet would've been about $12.3 million) is a big odd, so I'm fairly confident that Utah gave him a slight bump this year to have control of his future with non-guaranteed future seasons.

8/12 Update: Keith Smith confirms my suspicions with two non-guaranteed years followed by a team option like I had above.

Spurs sign Flynn: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/7)
Malachi Flynn$2,087,519

San Antonio already has 15 players signed, so I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed minimum.

Jazz to renegotiate-and-extend Markkanen: 5 years, $238 million; $220 million in new money (Shams 8/6 Woj 8/7)
Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$39,143,476$42,274,954$45,406,433$48,537,911

Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$43,720,568$47,218,213$50,715,859$54,213,504

This won't be agreed to until tomorrow or later so that Markkanen can ensure that he won't be traded this season since there will be a six-month waiting period once the deal is signed, and the Trade Deadline is February 6th. In the article from Shams, Slater, and Tony Jones, they reported that the "deal is projected to be worth upwards of $200 million over five years." A 30% max contract that another team could offer Markkanen next summer is expected to be for $199,494,630 over four years based on the rising cap, so that would seem to be the floor for his extension. My projection above is based on Utah using $24,131,856 of their cap space to bump up his current $18,044,544 salary to his max for this season, and then spreading the remaining $175,362,774 over the next four years. 

If it does end up being "only" in that $200 million range for total money as the report indicates, that would be a surprising value for the Jazz. Besides the $199.5 million from other teams, they could offer Markkanen as much as $269 million over five years if he hits free agency. A renegotiation-and-extension in this way would mean that he only goes on the books over the next four seasons for somewhere around that $175 million number above, after the $24.13 million raise this year. Being able to use their cap space to provide their star with the security of the massive deal now rather than waiting for free agency seems to have provided a ton of flexibility in negotiations.

8/7 Update: Well me playing around with the potential numbers based on The Athletic's report turned out to be a huge waste of time because Woj now reports that it's $220 million in new money for a total of $238 million, which makes way more sense. That means that after the $24.13 million raise this year, Markkanen will have about $195.87 million left on his extension over the next four seasons, so the Jazz will have his cap hits at a hair under his max over that span. This is obviously more than the offer that I said other teams could give him next year, and he will earn about $12.15 million more over these five years than if he just re-signed on a four-year deal next summer.