2023-24 NBA Trade Tracker

Well that was unexpected! The NBA Trade Deadline isn't until February 8th, but the Raptors and Knicks kicked off trade season early to prompt the start of my usual transaction tracker. This will be a one stop shop for every in-season NBA trade, when it went down, who first reported it (as far as I know), and the contracts/picks involved to look back on like last season's. The format will be like the offseason tracker where I add each new deal to the top to make it easy to see any updates, and the color code as usual is player option, team option, and not fully guaranteed along with estimates. Otherwise, these cap numbers are courtesy of Keith Smith at Spotrac.com.

2/9 update: Now that yesterday's deadline is firmly in the rearview, I went back and added more details that have emerged for each deal. It probably makes the most sense to start with trades at the bottom and work up chronologically, but as always, Command + F is a friend to find specific players. To make things easier, here is a summary of what each team did over the past six weeks, listed in order of championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Celtics +265

Traded for: Xavier Tillman, Jaden Springer, and one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)

Traded away: Lamar Stevens, Dalano Banton, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Nuggets +425

Traded for: Cash considerations

Traded away: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Clippers +550

Traded for: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Traded away: Cash considerations

Bucks +600

Traded for: Patrick Beverley and the draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)

Traded away: Cam Payne, Robin Lopez, a 2nd round pick, and cash considerations

Suns +1,200

Traded for: Royce O'Neale and David Roddy

Traded away: Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, Chimezie Metu, Jordan Goodwin, three 2nd round picks, and one 1st round draft swap that was already Horcruxed.

76ers +1,800

Traded for: Buddy Hield, Cam Payne, and three 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected)

Traded away: Marcus Morris, Furkan Korkmaz, Danuel House, Patrick Beverley, Jaden Springer, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Knicks +2,000

Traded for: OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, and Precious Achiuwa

Traded away: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Ryan Arcidiacono, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Waived: DaQuan Jeffries

Timberwolves +2,000

Traded for:

Traded away:

Thunder +2,200

Traded for: Monte Morris

Traded away: Shake Milton, Troy Brown, and a 2nd round pick

Lakers +2,800

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Cavaliers +3,500

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Heat +3,500

Traded for: Terry Rozier

Traded away: Kyle Lowry and a 1st round pick

Mavericks +4,000

Traded for: PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, and two 2nd round picks

Traded away: Grant Williams, Richaun Holmes, Seth Curry, one 1st round pick, and one 1st round pick swap

Kings +5,000

Traded for: Robin Lopez and cash considerations

Traded away: Draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)

Waived: Robin Lopez

Pelicans +6,000

Traded for: Cash considerations

Traded away: Kira Lewis and one 2nd round pick

Warriors +7,000

Traded for: one 2nd round pick

Traded away: Cory Joseph, one 2nd round pick (top-55 protected), and cash consideration

Pacers +11,000

Traded for: Pascal Siakam, Doug McDermott, Furkan Korkmaz, Cory Joseph, four 2nd round picks (though one is top-55 protected), and cash considerations

Traded away: Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield, Jordan Nwora, three 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick

Waived: James Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, and Cory Joseph

Magic +25,000

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Hawks +40,000

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Jazz +60,000

Traded for: Otto Porter Jr, Kira Lewis, Kevin Knox, one 1st round pick, one 2nd round pick, and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)

Traded away: Simone Fontecchio, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji

Waived: Kevin Knox

Bulls +60,000

Traded for: N/A

Traded away: N/A

Rockets +60,000

Traded for: Steven Adams

Traded away: Victor Oladipo and three 2nd round picks

Nets +100,000

Traded for: Dennis Sschroder, Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin, Thaddeus Young, and three 2nd round picks

Traded away: Royce O'Neale and Spencer Dinwiddie

Waived: Harry Giles, Jordan Goodwin, and Thaddeus Young

Raptors +100,000

Traded for: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji, Jordan Nwora, Spencer Dinwiddie, two 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick

Traded away: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Dennis Schroder, Precious Achiuwa, Otto Porter Jr, Thaddeus Young, and Malachi Flynn

Waived: Spencer Dinwiddie and Christian Koloko

Grizzlies +100,000

Traded for: Yuta Watanabe, Lamar Stevens, Chimezie Metu, Victor Oladipo, one 1st round pick swap (that was already Horcruxed), and five 2nd round picks

Traded away: Xavier Tillman, David Roddy, Steven Adams

Waived: Chimezie Metu and Victor Oladipo

Trail Blazers +100,000

Traded for: Dalano Banton and cash considerations

Traded away: one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)

Spurs +100,000

Traded for: Marcus Morris (likely to be waived), one 2nd round pick, and cash considerations

Traded away: Doug McDermott

Wizards +100,000

Traded for: Marvin Bagley III, Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Livers, one 1st round pick, and two 2nd round picks

Traded away: Daniel Gafford, Danilo Gallinari, and Mike Muscala

Hornets +100,000

Traded for: Grant Williams, Kyle Lowry (likely buyout), Tre Mann, Seth Curry, Vasilije Micic, Davis Bertans, two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks

Traded away: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, and two 2nd round picks

Waived: James Bouknight, Ish Smith, and Frank Ntilikina

Pistons +100,000

Traded for: Simone Fontecchio, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Shake Milton, Troy Brown, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Malachi Flynn, Ryan Arcidiacono, Danuel House, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Traded away: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Monte Morris, Mavin Bagley III, Isaiah Livers, Kevin Knox, four 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected), and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)

Waived: Joe Harris, Killian Hayes, Danilo Gallinari, Danuel House, and Ryan Arcidiacono

Golden State buys a pick and trims their tax bill (Shams with the news, Tony East the details 2/8)

Warriors receive:

2024 2nd round pick: Worst of Bucks, Cavaliers, or Pelicans

Pacers receive:

Cory Joseph

$2,019,706

2025 Hornets 2nd round pick: top-55 protected 

Cash considerations

Since Second Apron teams like the Warriors won't be able to just buy 2nd round picks anymore going forward (or send cash in deals in general as mentioned below), this is a sneaky good move to spend now now to get the worst of the Pacers' four 2nd rounders while also trimming their luxury tax bill by about $13.5 million due to the repeater penalty. Now they have an open roster spot to convert my guy Lester Quinones to a regular contract by the end of the season, ideally on a multi-year deal, which will eat into those savings but not significantly. Indy had an open roster spot and received more than what's left on Joseph's salary (reportedly $5.8 million) for one of their extra picks, and now they're promptly waiving the veteran guard along with Korkmaz from their earlier trade.

Clippers buy draft rights while they can (Law Murray, 2/8)

Clippers receive:

Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Nuggets receive:

Cash considerations

Not exactly a blockbuster, but as a Second Apron team, the Clips are about to be unable to send out cash in trades. It was a use or lose it scenario, so they are taking a flier on a 23 year old French big man in Kamagate, who is currently playing in Italy.

Boston adds Springer and sheds Banton (Woj, 2/8)

Celtics receive:

Jaden Springer

$2,226,240

$4,018,363

2027 2nd round pick: top-55 protected

Trail Blazers receive:

Dalano Banton

$2,019,706

$2,196,970

Cash considerations

76ers receive:

2024 2nd round pick: More favorable of Bulls or Pelicans

These are two separate trades, but I'm just lumping them together here since they're related for Boston (and the Celtics PR release did the same). Springer is likely going into the Grant Williams Trade Exception that they wouldn't be able to use in the offseason as a Second Apron team, and he takes Banton's roster spot as a young wing with some upside who likely won't play much. Keith Pompey provided the details above for the real 2nd that they sent to Philly for Springer (compared to the fake one from Portland for Banton), so they have at least some hope that the #28 pick in 2021 can tap into his upside. He's recently gotten a showcase of minutes with all of the 76ers' injuries, and while he hasn't shot it well, there have been flashes of defensive tenacity for the 21 year old. 

This leaves Philadelphia with only Joel Embiid and Paul Reed under contract for next season, with the latter's not even guaranteed unless they win a playoff series. Tyrese Maxey's relatively small cap hold will of course still be on the books along with possibly De'Anthony Melton's, but they will have enough room to sign a max contract and more.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 13-16 2023

It's here: fantasy football championship week! Since my last post, rookies Tank Dell and Keaton Mitchell suffered unfortunate injuries, but Rachaad White and Trey McBride have continued getting the type of awesome usage that is the point of this series. Once again, I did not mean to have to lump in this many weeks for one post, but the holiday season got in the way. That means there's a lot to talk about, so I'll just get to it with the regular note that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• When talking about ideal workloads, the conversation pretty much starts with Christian McCaffrey. He just played 100% of the 49ers snaps for the third time this year while also seeing 10 targets for a 22.73% target share that would make a lot of wide receivers blush. Overall on the season he's played 82.78% of the snaps with a 18.62% target share while also getting 74.78% of the running back carries. The combination of receiving and goal line usage in Kyle Shanahan's creative scheme has led to averaging 25.21 PPR points, which is not only the highest among all players but almost 5 points higher than the next RB. The fantasy MVP should have a solid shot of winning the actual NFL award considering his 1,932 yards from scrimmage are 276 more than anyone else and he's tied for the most touchdowns scored at 21. He's just two away from matching Jerry Rice's franchise record (although the GOAT WR did it in just 12 games due to a strike season), and he could get it with a game to spare to lead fantasy managers to the promised land against Washington's pushover defense.
  
  
• Staying in the Bay Area, the splits with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are fascinating. In the 11 games that both have finished, they have identical 81.42% snap rates and 22.52% target shares with Samuel running routes on 89.77% of the dropbacks to Aiyuk's 89.49%. Deebo's unparalleled nose for the end zone gives him a PPG edge of 17.65 to 16.46 in those contests, and he does benefit from 2.67 carries for extra opportunities. Aiyuk is the more refined pure WR who relies a bit more on big plays, as his league-leading 18.5 yards per reception indicates, and his 1,203 receiving yards paces the team. If Samuel gets 166 receiving yards these last two weeks to hit the century mark, these two and George Kittle (currently at 991 yards), could become just the sixth trio in NFL history to all hit 1,000 yards and the first since 2008 Cardinals. That team was led to the Super Bowl by Kurt Warner, whom you may have heard has some similarities with a certain 49ers' QB.
  
  
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 8-12 2023

After the Harden trade was my weekly post and then my schedule didn't allow one in recent weeks, it's time to get back into the swing of things! With a lot to touch on, I'll just get right to things with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Trey McBride wast the last bullet point in the last Gio-ing Deep I wrote, and while I've tried not to repeat players in back to back posts, his recent play definitely calls for it. In the five games since Zach Ertz was placed on IR, the second year TE has averaged 14.82 points while playing 83.13% of the snaps, participating in 82.14% of the routes, and commanding a massive 27.5% target share. That's even with the 5.2 dud when rookie Clayton Tune was an inept fill-in starter against the elite Browns defense. In just the three games that Kyler Murray has played, McBride has very similar 14.47, 87.31%, 85.37%, and 24.04% splits. Ertz asked for and was granted his release yesterday to join a contender, so it is firmly McBride TE1 SZN.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another young TE that's been on the rise since a veteran teammate went down is Dalton Kincaid. After missing Week 6 with a concussion, things actually were already trending up in the last game that Dawson Knox played, with the rookie putting up 15.5 points despite Knox playing 63.38% of the snaps. In the six games from that week on, the 1st-round pick has averaged 14.1 points with a 21.13% target share. That's come while running a route on 79.61% of the dropbacks despite only playing 71.63% of the snaps as he's much more of a big slot receiver than true tight end at this point.
  
  The Bills had switched to much more two "tight end" sets early in the season with Kincaid in a hybrid role before reverting back to their typical three WR sets with Knox out, so it will be interesting to see what they go whenever he returns. A big factor could be the fact that Khalil Shakir, a sleeper I liked in the 2022 draft, has stepped up in the five games without Knox. His snap rate got bumped up to 73.58% during this time with an even higher 75.12% route participation, and he's turned a 12.07% target share into 11.3 points per game.
  
  

The Harden Trade, Part IV

Clippers receive:

James Harden

$35,680,595

P.J. Tucker

$11,014,500

$11,539,000

Filip Petrusev

$1,119,563

$1,891,857

76ers receive:

Marcus Morris	$17,116,279
Nicolas Batum	$11,710,818

Robert Covington

$11,692,308

Kenyon Martin Jr.

$1,930,681

2026 1st round pick (least favorable of the Clippers, Rockets, or Thunder)

2028 Clippers 1st round pick

Right to swap 2029 1st round picks with the Clippers (top-3 protected)

2024 and 2029 2nd round picks

Cash considerations (reportedly $2 million)

Thunder receive:

Right to swap 2027 1st round picks with the Clippers

Cash considerations (reportedly $1.1 million)

A Woj bomb dropping at 11 pm PST the night before the NFL Trade Deadline was hilarious, even if it took an unusually long 38 minutes to get the players involved reported after the initial news. And the draft assets involved still have yet to have actual details! There was some buzz (I believe I heard it on The Lowe Post) that Los Angeles were shopping an unprotected 1st of theirs for two protected picks to entice Philadelphia. Based on Woj's follow up tweet, it would appear they were successful, and Oklahoma City first comes to mind as a team who has more picks than they can use and might look to consolidate.

The initial takeaway here is that the Clips managed to get this done without giving up Terance Mann, and that the 76ers included Tucker's salary to open up even more cap space for next summer while also waiving Danny Green to create a roster spot for this. I'll dive into it more in the morning when more information is confirmed about the picks, but I wanted to get a first look at the salaries involved (with credit to Keith Smith on Spotrac) posted for comparison.

BREAKING: The Philadelphia 76ers have agreed on a trade to send guard James Harden to the Los Angeles Clippers, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/wAyuJKMfAw

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 31, 2023

10/31 update: It in fact was OKC who got involved as a third team, and I updated the final tally above now that we have more details. Only getting a 2027 pick swap in order to send the worst of their 2026 1st rounders (as Derek Bodner reported) isn't as great of a value as I thought they'd get, but they're making a gamble on the upside of the Clippers being on a big decline by then. It is also kind of fitting that they got those picks from the trades of Paul George and Russell Westbrook (with the Rockets pick top-4 protected) and that they're involved in reuniting the latter with Harden yet again after they started their careers as Thunder players.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 7 2023

Some of my observations from last week turned into the kiss of death for the players involved. Even the headliner who continued his strong performance, Joshua Palmer, apparently got banged up and is questionable for this weekend. Hopefully things go more smoothly this time around.

As always, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 7 kicked off on Thursday Night Football with another huge game for Alvin Kamara. The running back saw 14 of the team's 53 targets for a huge 26.42% target share, and he's now up to a wide receiver-like 24.07% share (an astounding 9.75 looks per game) since coming off of the three-game suspension to start the year. Combined with seeing 76.67% of the RB carries (17.25 per game), he's averaging 21.7 points so far in PPR formats. With New Orleans' offensive line so banged up, it often feels like quick dump offs to Kamara are the only thing that Derek Carr can consistently execute.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another 'back who also got off to a late start and now is seeing a somewhat surprising amount of work through the air is Jonathan Taylor. After getting activated off of the PUP list and signing a large extension, he was eased into just 15.15% of the snaps in Week 5. That number went up to 42.31% and then 50% this past week, as you'd expect, with subsequent point totals of 11.5 and 21. What you might not expect is that a decent part of that production is thanks to target shares of 11.54% and 18.18%. Having more of a pocket passer like Garnder Minshew going forward means more check downs than Taylor might have seen with Anthony Richardson, who could just take off on a scramble instead. That is encouraging to see as a supplemental path to points since Zack Moss isn't likely to go away after filling in so admirably early in the season. Moss has played 50% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks while getting the call on 46.67% and 50.00% of the RB carries, and I'd expect things to end up around a 60-40 or 67-33 split in Taylor's favor going forward.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2023

It was nice to see Drake London and Jakobi Meyers have nice games following last week's post, and Zach Evans might even be the Rams' new starting running back now after I gave him a shout, as well.

Now here are some other observations from this past week with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 6 started on TNF with the most frustrating game yet for rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims, who had a season-low snap rate of 23.08% and failed to see a target for the first time in his young career. Journeyman Lil'Jordan Humphrey was cut during the week and still played more snaps than Mims (after being re-signed to the practice squad and elevated for the game) despite the rookie being the team's most explosive playmaker. He's had catches of 60 yards (a touchdown), 53 yards, 48 yards, 38 yards, and 30 yards along with a 99 yard kickoff return TD and punt returns of 45 yards and 25 yards. Despite this, Mims has played only 27.32% of the snaps and run routes on 26.48% of the team's dropbacks, resulting in just a 7.06% target share. Consistently putting Brandon Johnson and sometimes Humphrey out there instead is some criminal coaching by Sean Payton for the 1-5 Broncos, especially after they traded up to get Mims in the 2nd round as the first selection of his tenure. It does feel like only a matter of time before Jerry Jeudy gets traded, so maybe then the rookie will finally be unleashed.
  
  
• The week essentially ended on MNF when Justin Herbert threw an interception under pressure on a ball intended for another rookie WR, Quentin Johnston. I was eagerly anticipating how this offense would look with Austin Ekeler back and the potential for the 1st rounder to get more involved coming out of the bye, but things mostly held to the status quo. In his first game since Week 1, Ekeler played 68.49% of the snaps, got 87.5% of the RB carries (14, after 15 in the opener when he got injured), and saw a 16.22% target share much like the 16.13% mark in his previous game. Meanwhile, Johnston's 47.95% snap rate was similar to his 50.77% before the bye, but his route participation dropped from 70.97% to 47.73% this game. Just a 5.41% target share resulted in two looks, and he's been between 2 and 3 targets in every game so far.
  
  It's looking like Joshua Palmer's role is secure as a result, and his 10 PPR points this week could've been more if not for a couple of nice gains, including a TD, called back by penalty. Starting in Week 3 when Mike Williams tore his ACL, Palmer has seen 7, 8, and 7 targets and averaged 11.8 points. In the two full games as the #2 WR, he's played 92.03% of the snaps and ran routes on 98.67% of the dropbacks to earn a 24.59% target share in this high-powered offense. Last year, Palmer averaged 13.3 points with a 21.66% target share in the 10 games from Weeks 2 through 13 when either Williams or Keenan Allen missed time, and it was 18.07 with a 23.14% target share in the final three of those games when playing with Allen and no Williams for all but 6 snaps. The former could be the baseline for the rest of this season with Johnston off to such a slow start while the latter provides an enticing upside with the same kind of setup going forward.
  
  
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-5 2023

After a couple of weeks with NBA posts due to breaking news, I'm back with some data observations from the last few weeks of the NFL.

In case you missed the first two editions of this, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 5 finished with the "Davante Adams Revenge Game" between the Raiders and Packers, but it was Jakobi Meyers who stole the show with 7 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown to continue a strong start to his Las Vegas career. He missed Week 2 with a concussion, but in the four games he's played, Meyers now is averaging 17.6 PPR points thanks to an impressive 26.28% target share while playing on 89.55% of the snaps and 89.94% of the routes. If you only look at the three games with Jimmy Garoppolo, those numbers rise to 21.7, 32.32%, 87.18%, and 87.61%. That point total should regress some since scoring three touchdowns already probably isn't sustainable, but he has really improved at finding the end zone. After only scoring two total touchdowns in his first three seasons in the NFL, Meyers scored 6 last year, and now he has a huge role on his new team.
  
  
• Also in that game was Christian Watson's first full workload after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury and being eased into Week 4. Although he only scored 11.6 points, he was in on 84.48% of the snaps and 85.29% of the routes while commanding a strong 24.14% target share. Jordan Love's erratic throws were and could be a problem, but he loves to chuck it deep, which is Watson's specialty.
  
  Perhaps more notable than Watson's predictably strong usage was the ripple effect he had on his teammates. Romeo Doubs was still out there for 86.21% of the snaps and 97.06% of the routes but only saw a 13.79% target share after it was 25.58% in the first four games. As some feared, rookie Jayden Reed was down to a 50% snap rate and 58.82% route participation with only a 6.9% target share compared to 60.98%, 69.13%, and 20.16% coming into the week. Interestingly, rookie tight end Luke Musgrave tied Watson for the team-lead with 7 targets to get up to a 17.74% target share in his four healthy games. After coach Matt LeFleur was seen yelling at him over some mistake on the opening series, Musgrave was seemingly benched for a couple of drives before racking up check downs in only 68.97% of the snaps and 67.65% of the routes. Overall in those four full games, he has a solid 79.76% snap rate while running routes on 79.43% of the dropbacks, though.

  Packers Air Yards on MNF:
  
  Christian Watson: 180
  Jayden Reed: 28
  Romeo Doubs: 18
  Dontayvion Wicks: 10
  Luke Musgrave: 9
  Josiah Deguara: 4
  Tucker Kraft: 0
  Patrick Taylor: -3
  AJ Dillon: -5

  — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 10, 2023

The Other Shoe Drops for Portland: Jrue Holiday to Boston

Celtics receive:

Jrue Holiday

$36,861,707

$39,403,893

Trail Blazers receive:

Malcolm Brogdon

$22,500,000

$22,500,000

Robert Williams III

$11,571,429

$12,428,571

$13,285,713

2024 Warriors 1st round pick (protected 1-4 in '24, 1 in '25, then unprotected)

2029 Celtics 1st round pick

The Celtics got their Marcus Smart replacement. After originally intending to send Brogdon to the Clippers in their trade for Kristaps Porzingis before it became Smart to the Grizzlies, it's now Brogdon to the Trail Blazers along with Williams and one of the picks they got from Memphis in that trade. The net result for them this summer is replacing Smart and Williams with Holiday and Porzingis while losing Brogdon, shedding Danilo Gallinari's salary, and getting the pick that eventually became Jordan Walsh and four future 2nd rounders.

That's a high variance gamble with Boston getting more top-end talent but also older with less depth. The 33 year old Holiday is a 5-time All-Defensive guard who can provide more offense than the 29 year old former Defensive Player of the Year, Smart, and 28 year old Porzingis is of course a much more renowned scorer than the 26 year old (later this month) Williams. While there will likely be some drop off defensively overall, Time Lord was limited to just 35 games for the C's last season, and his knee issues might have contributed to this move. The problem is that Porzingis has a long injury history himself, and now they'll only have 37 year old Al Horford as the other proven big. Luke Kornet can be an innings eater in the regular season when one sits out, but I wouldn't be surprised if another move adds some help here by the trade deadline.

Looking at the Pieces Involved in Lillard's Trade to the...Bucks?!

Bucks receive:

Damian Lillard

$45,640,084

$48,787,676

$58,545,211

$63,228,828

Trail Blazers receive:

Jrue Holiday

$36,861,707

$39,403,893

Deandre Ayton

$32,459,438

$34,005,126

$35,550,814

Toumani Camara

$1,119,563

$1,891,857

$2,221,677

$2,406,205

2029 Bucks 1st round pick

Right to swap 1st round picks with Bucks in 2028 and 2030

Suns receive:

Jusuf Nurkic

$16,875,000

$18,125,000

$19,375,000

Grayson Allen

$8,500,000

Nassir Little

$6,250,000

$6,750,000

$7,250,000

$7,750,000

Keon Johnson

$2,808,720

$4,474,291

At long last, the NBA's last biggest soap opera came to a conclusion yesterday when Woj broke the news that the Portland Blazers finally found a suitable trade partner for franchise legend, Damian Lillard. Despite his agent's public comments about only being happy with landing in Miami, the Milwaukee Bucks stepped up out of nowhere with a fair offer that somewhat surprisingly included the Phoenix Suns getting involved. Based on the reporting, it's seemed for a while like GM Joe Cronin didn't really negotiate in good faith with the Heat, and you can argue each way about what each side "owed" each other out of loyalty over the years. In the end, it is the Blazers brass' job to do what's best for the team going forward, but it's debatable whether acting this way with the team that was most motivated to make the deal was the best way to do that. Shams even wrote this morning that they asked for Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, which makes no sense for the rebuild that's about to start in Portland.

The final return is not bad at all, with a true judgment depending on what they are able to flip Holiday for since the 33 year old All-Star is surely to end up on a contender next. The long-rumored offer from Miami was based around three or four 1st round picks (by gaining one from sending Tyler Herro elsewhere), 2022 1st round pick Nikola Jovic, and expiring contracts, so that's what the end result will be compared to. What they have for sure is Ayton, and your view of the 25 year old former #1 overall pick will determine how well you think the Blazers did. The $102 million remaining on his 25% max contract is certainly not cheap, but getting off of 29 year old Nurkic's bloated contract is a plus. Ayton is of course immensely talented and now provides a high ceiling option in the front court to go along with their exciting young guards Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons. Getting Camara thrown in after he looked like a steal at Summer League as the 52nd pick this past June was a nice plus, and the 23 year old joins Matisse Thybulle, Kris Murray, and Rayan Rupert as interesting options on the wing.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2023

I say it every year, but I feel like Week 2 in the NFL can be the most unpredictable. We're dealing with literally the smallest of sample sizes, teams can go from playing on the road to at home, and coaches make big adjustments to get a guy going after being underutilized in the opener like with D'Andre Swift, Christian Kirk, and Drake London. I'm not going to focus on big spikes like that this week and will instead save that for the future to see if it's a one game change or not, though.

Like last week (and how all weeks will be), snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• The week started on TNF with another high-volume TJ Hockenson game, continuing a trend ever since he was traded to Minnesota last year. After getting 6.14 looks per game for a strong 17.84% target share the first seven games in Detroit, that rose to an outrageous 9.44 and 23.42% in 9 full regular season games with his new team. The game not included in this sample is Week 18 when the Vikings pulled the starters ahead of their playoff game...in which he saw 11 of 39 targets (28.21%). That was bound to regress, especially with 1st rounder Jordan Addison providing tougher competition than the departed Adam Thielen, and Hockenson is at 19.54% through two games this season. However, he's averaging 7.5 catches after 6.36 in the 11 total games last season (so counting the 1 catch Week 18 game and 10 catch playoff game for a larger sample), and his 17-game pace would result in 111 catches. Incredibly, Hockenson STILL wouldn't hit 1,000 yards based on his wildly low 8.81 yards per catch in those games, and he's only averaging 6.57 yards per target to boot. 
  
  
• On the other end of the spectrum to Hock's 7.66 aDOT with the Vikings last year and only 4.75 so far this season, there's Kyle Pitts' utilization and sad subsequent production. The Falcons tight end had a huge 13.7 aDOT last year with only 62% of those passes deemed catchable, and so far this season those numbers are 13.92 and 58%. Pitts can run like a wide receiver, but these long passes just aren't working for Atlanta. If there's a bright side, it's that his usage has held steady in the first two weeks. Although he's only been in on 61.54% and 69.51% of the snaps (66.42% overall), running a route on 90.91% and 92.11% of the dropbacks (91.67% combined) has resulted in 16.67% and 17.24% target shares (17.02% in total). Getting these looks should result in better days ahead for the talented TE.
  
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2023

NFL football is officially back, and this is probably my favorite time of year. Going from my birthday in early August to fantasy draft season to the actual games is always a blast, and now it's time to grind. I always track snap counts, targets, and carries for every player each week, and followers on Twitter know I used to post a thread each week with the hashtag #GIOingDeep sharing some observations. (Very creative title with my name, I know). This season I'm going to compile my thoughts on notable player usage into posts here for easier accessibility instead. The frequency will depend on when my schedule permits, but it will be a nice way to check in on how teams might be changing up the utilization of some players over the course of the season.

Snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and this season I'm also looking into PFF's routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) data listed on FantasyLife.com.

• The new season started with encouraging usage for Isiah Pacheco in Thursday's opening kickoff. He didn't get the official start, possibly since he's still working his way back from offseason surgery or simply out of veteran deference to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Pacheco led the backfield in snaps with 31 (47.69%) and carries with 8 (57.14% of the RB carries). More importantly, the second year back saw 4 looks through the air for a 10.81% target share after only getting 14 targets (2.28%) all of last season. Part of me wonders if CEH got the nominal start in order to try to showcase him for a possible trade, but in any case, Pacheco being more than just a two-down bruiser would be a welcome development.
  
  
  
• Speaking of running backs getting more targets than usual, Nick Chubb had the third-most looks on the Browns in Week 1 with 4 for a 13.79% target share. It was a middling 7.31% mark overall last season, but he finished the last six games at 8.97% with Deshaun Watson after only seeing 6.57% when Jacoby Brissett started the first 11 games. With Kareem Hunt no longer on the team to take passing down work, it could wheels up for Chubb.

2023 NBA Offseason Tracker

It's NBA free agency time! With agreements for the new league year allowed to start coming in today at 3:00 PT, it's time to switch over from the moves over the past week and a half (including trades this morning) to this post that will be updated constantly through the summer. The newest deals will be at the top for the sake of ease, with "Command F" definitely helpful to find certain players as the signings pour in.

Like always, I'll cite who first reported the news (Adrian Wojnarowski, Shams Charania, Chris Haynes, etc) on which day, and I'm projecting reported salaries with the standard 5% and 8% raises for new and incumbent teams, respectively, in bold italics. Figures for existing contracts in trades usually come from Keith Smith on Spotrac, and stats are from Basketball Reference, RealGM, or the NBA's advanced stats page. The visual key consists of my estimates/player options/team options/not fully guaranteed.

With the salary cap officially set at $136,021,000 with a luxury tax line of $165,294,000, the First Apron at $172,346,000 million, and the Second Apron at $182,794,000 million, here are some key figures:

• The first year of a max salary for a player with six or fewer years of experience is 25% of the cap, so $34,005,250 this season, which means a highest possible total of 4 years, $146,222,575 million if signing with a new team or 5 years, $197,230,450 million with his previous team.
• The 30% numbers for a player with seven to nine years of experience are $40,806,300 to total 4/$175,467,090 or 5/$236.64 million.
• For players with 10 or more years, the 35% numbers (I hate the term "supermax") are $47.6 million to total 4/$204.68 million or 5/$236,676,540.
• If a team is under the First Apron, the full Mid-Level Exception, aka the MLE, is for $12,405,000 and can go up to $53,341,500 over four years.
• Teams that stay under the Second Apron can use the Taxpayer MLE that was reduced in the new CBA going into effect today, and it can start at $5,000,000 and top out at 2 years, $10.25 million.
• Teams that operate under the salary cap and then reach it can then use the Room MLE that was boosted in the new CBA to start at $7,723,000 and can now go for 3 years, to total $24,327,450.
• The Bi-Annual Exception, or BAE, for teams that didn't use it the previous year can start at $4,516,000 and go for a total of 2 years, $9,257,800.
• Lastly, minimum salaries will range from about $1.1 million for rookies all the way to almost $3.2 million now for those with 10+ years, not too far off of the taxpayer MLE. As always, if a veteran signs just a one year deal at the minimum, he will count the same as a player with 2+ years of experience (about $2 million this year), while earning the full amount.

And now, let the fun begin!

Hart extends with the Knicks: 4 years, $81 million (Woj 8/9)

Josh Hart

$12,960,000

$18,144,000

$19,595,520

$21,047,040

$22,498,560

Now who could've predicted this exact deal when he picked up his player option back in June? Doing it this way gives New York breathing room under the luxury tax than if they simply agreed on a 5 year, $94.2 million deal in free agency since Hart would have had a $16.2 million starting salary in that case.

8/10 update: Fred Katz reports that the last year is a team option, which is in line with a lot of the Knicks' deals in recent years.

Davis extends with the Lakers: 3 years, "$186 million" (Woj 8/4)

Anthony Davis

$40,600,080

$43,219,440

$52,185,000

$56,359,800

$60,534,600

Based on the current projection for the 2025 salary cap, this deal would be for about $169 million, which is what I'm projecting above. Like so many of the extensions this summer, the reported number is if the cap raises by the maximum of 10% each year. I believe this involves Davis picking up his $43,219,440 player option for the 2024-25 season in order to tack on 3 years from there.

8/6 update: Scotto adds that the last year of this deal is a player option, and Gozlan noted over the weekend that the last year of Davis' previous contract was technically an Early Termination Option rather than a player option. They are effectively the same, but an ETO can't be declined as part of an extension, which is why it had to be picked up even though that $43.2 million is well short of the projected $49.7 million max next summer that this extension could have otherwise started at.

Temple joins the Raptors: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 7/31)

Garrett Temple

$2,019,706

As Woj noted in his tweet, the take home for Temple is the $3,196,448 minimum for players with 10+ years of experience. It's not the $5,401,000 he could have gotten if New Orleans didn't waive him, but it's good money for a 37 year old who is more known for his locker room presence than on-court contributions at this point.

Antetokounmpo returns to the Bucks (Shams 7/28)

Thanasis Antetokounmpo

$2,019,706

I thought that Milwaukee might leave their 15th spot open due to being in the repeater tax for the first time, so kudos to them for continuing to spend, with most likely a one year minimum, as they contend (and keep a certain brother of Thanasis happy).

Brown extends with the Celtics: 5 years "up to $304 million" (Spears/Shams 7/25)

Jaylen Brown

$31,830,357

$49,700,000

$53,676,000

$57,652,000

$61,628,000

$65,604,000

Like with the rookie extensions earlier in the month, the "up to" language used by Marc Spears is carrying a lot of weight since based on next year's currently projected $142 million salary cap, a 35% raise would be for $288.3M, which I have above. Shams noting that there's no player option at the end is likely the other key negotiating point that was resolved. If the cap raises by the highest possible amount of 10%, then it would come out to $303.7M.

Dowtin returns to the Raptors: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/22)

Jeff Dowtin

$2,019,706

A training camp deal "with a significant salary guarantee if he makes the opening night roster" is an interesting outcome after Dowtin was a restricted free agent with a two-way qualifying offer. The 26 year old combo guard has done really well in the G League the last two years, and he could fill an area of need. for Toronto.

Dosunmu returns to the Bulls: 3 years, $21 million (Woj 7/21)

Ayo Dosunmu

$6,481,481

$7,000,000

$7,518,519

With a limited market due to restricted free agency, getting a little less than the Room MLE is a solid outcome for the former 2nd round pick. Only 23, Dosunmu now has some financial security just two years into his career and can hit free agency again at age 26. Chicago maintains their strong group of guards while remaining a little under $2 million away from the tax with this deal, which makes it even more unlikely that they use the Disabled Player Exception they received for Lonzo Ball or the rest of their MLE.