2018 NFL Week 7 Picks

Another week, another bad record for me. It's funny because when I guess what the spreads are going to be before they come out, I'm pretty accurate, so I fall into a false sense of security picking favorites to win by those amounts. The thing is, though, that so far this season the favorites (at least according to the lines in my CBS Sports pool) are only 44-49 against the spread, and I've especially been suffering from teams winning without covering recently. Thus, I'm changing things up this week by categorizing each of my picks so that I'll realize when I'm leaning a bit too far towards just the favorites. So without further ado, here are this week's picks to turn things around, with the usual assist from Rich Hribar's Worksheet on Rotoworld for some statistical nuggets.

Road Favorites

Broncos -2.5 at Cardinals

On the one hand, I'm stoked that I got this pick right and got 37 fantasy points from Denver's defense, but on the other, I'm kicking myself for switching to a different streamer in my main league...https://twitter.com/SF_DavidGio/status/1053084964055437312
Vikings -3.5 at Jets

These aren't directly related, but per Hribar, Vikings have the best third down defense in the league, and the Jets are the worst at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Those are signs of an elite defense and a not so great offense, and conversely, New York struggles covering the slot. I'm willing to bet that will continue given just how hot Adam Thielen has been to start the season.

Patriots -3.5 at Bears

I don't want to overreact to Chicago blowing last week's game with two long run after catch touchdowns for Albert Wilson before stupidly playing for a field goal that would be over 50 yards in OT, but it didn't inspire enough confidence to take the points here. New England's offense is finding its stride with Julian Edelman back and Josh Gordon more involved, so they should be able to cover more than a field goal, even on the road.

Lions -1.5 at Dolphins

Speaking of Wilson's long scores, these big play touchdowns can't be counted on each week, especially with Brock Osweiler at quarterback. And if Miami's defense cracks like it did against Trubisky, than Matthew Stafford and this receiving core should expose it.

2018 NFL Week 6 Picks

The Sunday slate was back to being unkind to me with an overtime loss (thanks Michael Crabtree) and three teams that won their game without covering. If a couple of those close calls go the other way, then my 6-9 week would look a bit nicer, though. I feel pretty good about this week now that we've got something of a sample size with each team, so maybe this will finally be the start of a run.

Eagles -3.5 at Giants

I forgot to tweet out my pick this time because I was too busy tilting as a Odell Beckham fantasy owner facing what felt like the entire Philly team across a couple of leagues. Rooting for a team to win but its players to do poorly is not great, Bob.

Chargers -1.5 at Browns

I know this exact matchup was what gave Hue Jackson his only win in the two seasons before this one, but I also know that Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates, and other Chargers veterans remember that, as well. Cleveland is a better team now, but I don't think LA will let that slip up happen again, even with the early East Coast start.

Texans -7.5 versus Bills

Buffalo has been hanging in games thanks to turnovers, but that isn't sustainable, especially on the road against an explosive offense. And although Houston's backfield is a a little banged up, their defensive front can win this game on its own since the Bills best offense seems to just be Josh Allen runs.

2018 NFL Week 5 Picks

Now that was more like it. As I somewhat joked would happen, my picks were 10-2 during the main Sunday slate after the Thursday night loss. Some of this week's spreads were a bit off from what I expected, but here's hoping for another big week to get me back over .500.

Patriots -10.5 versus Colts

I got off to a good start again despite a bit of a scare in the second with those "interceptions" that counted against Tom Brady after the ball popped out of his receivers' hands. Now comes the hard part with the rest of the games...

Titans -3.5 at Bills

Although Tennessee is on the road here, I thought that this line would be higher, and sure enough, it's move up to -5.5 in most places. The CBS Sports pick 'em doesn't change, though, so this is an easy choice for a Titans team that's on a roll. Their pass rush, reinvigorated by 2nd round steal Harold Landry, should feast on Josh Allen.

2018 NFL Week 4 Picks

Well, that wasn't exactly the bounce back week I was hoping for, but it was double the amount of wins from my dreadful Week 2. That's what we can call progress. Who knows, maybe I'll double last week's total again and begin a hot streak like my midseason run last year.

Vikings +6.5 at Rams

This pick isn't the start I was looking for, but then again, I won the last two Thursday games before terrible Sundays. The optimistic view would suggest that Minnesota's stunning collapse means I'm due for a big weekend. Law of averages, or something like that.

Bengals +5.5 at Falcons

Atlanta's offense is rolling now after that disappointing opener, but their defense keeps taking hits with free safety Ricardo Allen now out for the year, as well. Cincy moved the ball well even without Joe Mixon last week and is sure to put up points, and I think their defense is strong enough to win this game on the road.

Jaguars -7.5 versus Jets

Both teams lost tough games last week, but Jacksonville seems to actually be getting Leonard Fournette back now to stabilize the offense. And this elite defense getting a turnover-prone rookie QB at home could cover this spread by themselves.

Lions +3.5 at Cowboys

I'm guilty of overrating the impact of injuries to individual players sometimes, but there's no denying that the Dallas defense is vastly different unit when Sean Lee misses time. With Detroit's offense clicking on all cylinders the last game and a half, I think they should've been favored even on the road in this spot.

Detroit needs to keep calm and use Kerryon. He's clearly their best 'back.

2018 NFL Week 3 Picks

Week 2 might be my least favorite week in the NFL season. There's only a one game sample size leading up to it, and you have to try not to overreact to the opening weekend. My guesses at what the lines would be were unusually off as a result, and I ended up with my worst week of picks...ever? But that's in the past, and things are back on track with the spreads aligning more closely with my views of teams now, meaning this should be a better week. It can't get much worse, anyway.

Browns -3.5 versus Jets

Thank goodness for fantasy and football picks pool to make this typical TNF game interesting. I picked Cleveland to get in the W at -3.5 but don’t feel good about it of course 🙈

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) September 21, 2018

Well that was quite the roller coaster, but I'll take another 1-0 start to the week.

49ers +6.5 at Chiefs

I know San Francisco didn't cover again and that I'm probably being a homer, but they were in control of that game before things went off the rails late. Now they get difference-making linebacker Reuben Foster back from suspension while Kansas City's shoddy secondary is still without Eric Berry. I'd feel more comfortable if this was over a touchdown, but I'll take the points in what will be a shootout.

Broncos +5.5 at Ravens

Baltimore is exactly the kind of team that is hard to judge since they beat up on the hapless Bills before a really uneven loss to the Bengals, so I can't feel comfortable laying this many points with them. I do think they'll probably win, but Denver will by no means be a pushover after their 2-0 start. I can almost see Von Miller's pressure forcing a Joe Flacco interception now.

2018 NFL Week 2 Picks

Due to some traveling, I didn't get this post up yesterday as I had hoped, but rest assured that I wrote the TNF section on the plane and had Cincinnati. That already has me off to a better start than Week 1, so here's to that continuing!

Last week: 9-7

Bengals +0.5 versus Ravens

It’s hard to get a proper read on just how good Baltimore really is after beating up on the worst team in the league at home while Cincy had fits and starts before taking care of business on the road. Joe Mixon looked more like the dynamic 2nd round prospect that was expected last year, and if he produces like that consistently, the Bengals could be an underrated good team. I’m buying in this week at least since they’re at home and the Ravens are still difficult to trust.

Titans +4.5 versus Texans

This is of course contingent on the news that Marcus Mariota will play because it’s a tough call as it is. Give me the home ‘dogs, though, because Houston’s offensive line lost starting right tackle Seantrel Henderson for the season and looked as shaky as expected. Deshaun Watson dominated this game last year, but he started experiencing some of that regression to be mean that was bound to come in Week 1.

Steelers -5.5 versus Chiefs

I was shocked when I saw this line after how these teams performed in their season openers, and yet here I am, still laying the points. Pittsburgh has owned this matchup the last few years and are back at Heinz Field, where they are seemingly a completely different team. Kansas City is likely to be without Eric Berry again, so despite how impressive Pat Mahomes and the offense looked, I have a hard time seeing them get enough stops.

Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers

The fact that Tampa Bay's defense is in shambles was somewhat overlooked in their wild upset in New Orleans last week, and I don't believe in them as a sleeper team as a result. Philadelphia's defense will be a much more difficult challenge for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and I expect him to turn back into a pumpkin soon enough.

Fletcher Cox and the defense showed that they can win even without Nick Foles going crazy.

NFL 2018 Week 1 Picks

If you're here, you know it's just about that time: NFL football is back! After coming in 2nd by a single game in my picks pool on CBS Sports last season, I'm coming back for the title. Their lines will be the basis for my picks here, so without further ado, let the winning begin.

Falcons +3.5 at Eagles

The defending Super Bowl champs may end up being the favorites to repeat as NFC champions in the long run, but Carson Wentz isn't back from his torn ACL yet and top receiver Alshon Jeffery will miss the beginning of the season due to shoulder surgery. Nick Foles' magical hot streak from the playoffs won't continue, so I like Atlanta to avenge their playoff loss to kick off the season.

Steelers -5.5 at Browns

I know, I know: Le'Veon Bell still hasn't reported to the team, and the upstart Browns looked like a new team with all of their changes on display on Hard Knocks. -5.5 seems like a lot of points to lay on the road, especially with with a rookie offensive coordinator to boot, but guess what? Hue Jackson is still the Cleveland head coach with Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Ben Roethlisberger shouldn't have an issue shredding the Browns, whom he is 22-2 against in his career.

Expect Big Ben to receive another congratulatory handshake.

Titans -1.5 at Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill will be making his first start since December 11, 2016 against a team that made it to the Divisional Round last season and added new pieces on defense like Malcolm Butler, Rashaan Evans, and Kenny Vaccaro. Tennessee's offense also stands to improve with coach Mike Mularkey gone and intriguing new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur calling the shots now. After a bit of disappointing year, I say that Marcus Mariota takes the next step this season, and it starts against Miami's unimposing defense.

Ravens -6.5 vs Bills

I would probably take Baltimore no matter how high this line was. Their veteran defense is at home against the guy who threw 5 interceptions on just 14 attempts in the first half of this first start last year. And Nathan Peterman now has less talent around him on what I think will be the worst team in the league. Their secondary is strong, but that's about it, which leaves me confident in this spot.