Thursday, June 26, 2025

2025 NBA Draft Summary

This year's NBA draft is officially in the books! With their being so many moves during the event, I like to have this post separate from my offseason tracker to really dig into the moves around the board. While I make sure to give proper reporting credit in that tracker, it gets a lot messier trying to list that here with so many trades and the main news coming from one source earlier before small details come from another. So overall just shoutout to Shams Charania, Jake Fischer, Michael Scotto, Brett Siegel, Jon Krawczynski, and Anthony Slater for providing which future picks and/or draft rights exchanged hands throughout the event.

There will be more thoughts on what each team did added in soon, but for now here is a list of every selection and trade made (in excruciating detail) from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. If you're curious about how teams had some of these picks from previous trades (and boy were there a lot of them), I broke it down in the second half of my lottery reaction post.


Dallas Mavericks
  • #1 Cooper Flagg

San Antonio Spurs
  • #2 Dylan Harper
  • #14 Carter Bryant
  • Traded #38 for the Kings' 2030 2nd round pick and cash considerations

Philadelphia 76ers
  • #3 VJ Edgecombe
  • #35 Johni Broome

Charlotte Hornets
  • #4 Kon Knueppel
  • Traded Mark Williams for #29 Liam McNeeley and a 2029 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, Timberwolves [protected 1-5])
  • #33 Sion James
  • #34 Ryan Kalkbrenner

Utah Jazz
  • #5 Ace Bailey
  • Traded #21, #43, and 2031 and 2032 2nd round picks for #18 Walter Clayton
  • #53 John Tonje

Saturday, June 14, 2025

2025 NBA Offseason Tracker

The buzz around this year's NBA offseason is that the action could happen earlier than usual, so I'm just going to start my annual tracker now. This way I can list any players under contract that get traded during the draft here instead of having those in my separate post about every team's picks. 

The Rockets got things started already with the first extension reached right in the middle of the Finals, so I may as well get started now! As usual, players already under contract have their figures listed based on Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com while salaries in bold italics are my own estimates based on reported numbers and the standard 5% or 8% raises that teams could give. Salaries are also color coded if they are a player option, a team optionnot fully guaranteed, or mutual option. Since this post will be constantly updated throughout the summer, I'll be adding the latest news at the top to be readily available upon revisiting this page. Or if you want to go in chronological order, start at the bottom.

6/30 Update: The NBA officially announced that this year's salary cap is set at $154,647,000 with the tax line at $187,895,000, which is right at the expected 10% growth from last year. That means the the full Mid-Level Exception can have a starting salary of $14,104,000 and can top out at 4 years, $60,647,200; the Taxpayer MLE can start at $5,685,000 and go to 2 years, $11,654,250; the Room MLE can start at $8,781,000 and go to 3 years, $27,660,150; and the Bi-Annual Exception can start at $5,134,000 and go to 2 years, $10,524,700. Notably, Marks reports that the salary cap is only projected to go up by 7% raises instead of the maximum of 10% like this year, which could throw a wrench into team's budgets.


Bridges to extend with the Knicks: 4 years, $150 million (Shams 7/31)
Mikal Bridges$24,900,000$33,482,143$36,160,714$38,839,286$41,517,857

The most that Bridges could have extended for was $156.17 million ($34,860,000/$37,648,800/$40,437,600/$43,226,400), so New York got him to take a slight haircut to secure his future, with the last year being a player option as a consolation. A long-term deal was always likely with this pairing after the Knicks gave up five 1st round picks, a 1st round swap, and what turned out to be a high 2nd rounder for the 3+D wing last summer, and now they'll look to make at least the Conference Finals together again.


Butler to sign with the Suns: 1 year deal (Shams 7/23)
Jared Butler$2,296,274

Phoenix could be using the MLE or BAE to make a signing, but this is likely for the minimum. Gerald Bourguet even reported prior to this that if a deal is made with Butler, it might be a non-guaranteed deal to compete in training camp with the newly claimed Goodwin. 

Butler really showed last year that he could play, though, especially after Philadelphia traded a late 2026 1st for him and four 2nd rounders in the Reggie Jackson salary dump. I was surprised when they declined his $2,349,578 team option after converting his Two-Way following that trade, but I guess there wasn't a huge market for him with so many guards available this summer.


Waters to sign with the Spurs: 1 year deal (Shams 7/23)
Lindy Waters III$2,296,274

I'm projecting the minimum here, and with four years of experience, Waters would earn almost $2.5 million with the subsidized cap hit above. He can be streaky as a shooter but has a solid career 3-point percentage of 36.6% on 10.1 attempts per 36 minutes, and with good length on the wing, the 3+D potential has always been interesting. Turning 28 next week, there may not be a ton of upside, but it's a fine addition for this type of role off the bench as insurance for Carter Bryant and Julian Champagnie. 

7/25 Update: Scotto reports that the deal is only partially guaranteed for $500,000, so I changed the salary to red.


Okogie to sign with the Rockets: 1 year minimum contract (Shams 7/22)
Josh Okogie$2,296,274

As a veteran with 7 years of experience, Okogie will still earn $3.08 million with this subsidized cap hit. I thought that Houston would add a backup guard with a little more playmaking potential for their last bench spot, but another defender as good as Okogie on that end is a solid value for the minimum. Now he's reunited with Durant from their time in Phoenix, and there was a stretch in their first year together when Okogie was knocking down shots at a consistent rate to be an actual 3+D wing to a higher extent than most of his career.


Wesley to sign with the Trail Blazers: 1 year deal (Scotto 7/22)
Blake Wesley$2,296,274

This is most likely for the minimum, and with three years of experience, Wesley would earn $2,378,870 with the subsidized cap hit. Smith reported yesterday that Washington saved $1.4 million in his buyout, so the young guard comes out a bit ahead here.


McDermott to re-sign with the Kings: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/21)
Doug McDermott$2,296,274

As a veteran with 10+ years of experience, McDermott will still earn $3.6 million with this subsidized cap hit. He only played in 42 games with just 342 total minutes with them last year but can still knock down a shot (43.6% on threes last year, 41.1% for his career) in a pinch.


Paul to sign (back) with the Clippers: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/21)
Chris Paul$2,296,274

As a veteran with 10+ years of experience, Paul will still earn $3.6 million with this subsidized cap hit on the one year deal that takes the Clips close enough to the First Apron that they'll likely stick with only 14 players for a good portion of the season. This is expected to be the 40 year old's final season, and a return to LA had been discussed as a possibility for a while since he's kept it as the home base for his family from his first Clippers stint.

The future Hall of Famer still has a lot to offer on the court and incredibly played all 82 games last season for just the second time in his 20 year career, so this is tremendous value for a minimum signing. Hopefully for Paul's sake that will be a harbinger of things to come given his history of injuries late in the season, even if it means reducing his playing even lower than the 28 minutes that he averaged. Between him, Beal, and Lopez, LA got even older around Leonard and Harden, but they are going to be impressively deep with a ton of different potential lineup combinations.

CP3 and the Beard of course started together with great success in Houston, and although Harden has leaned more towards playmaker than scorer since then, they can clearly mesh their strengths together. With Harden's size to guard some wings, smaller lineups of Paul, Beal, Harden, Leonard, and Zubac could present a lot of threats, though defenders like Dunn, Batum, and/or Derrick Jones Jr might take some of the starting spots to stagger minutes. A bigger lineup with Collins and Lopez off the bench should fit well together thanks to the spacing either could provide for the other, with the former likely being the rim runner for Harden or Paul. And there's still Bogdanovic to provide more offensive punch for reserve units along with younger players like Cam Christie, Kobe Brown, and rookie Yanic Konan Niederhauser that will try to earn some kind of role. Suffice it to say there are a lot of options if healthy and some insolation for when the older players need to sit out.

One last, random note: it's funny that Paul and Beal will now play together after they were traded for each other two years ago. I wonder if Beal will take his college number, 23, from Patrick Baldwin Jr, who is only on a Two-Way contract, so that CP3 can retake the #3 that gave him the nickname. The #13 that Paul has worn for Team USA is also available if needed.


Smart to sign with the Lakers: 2 years, $11 million (Stein, Shams with the details 7/19)
Marcus Smart$5,134,000$5,390,700

With this almost certainly being the BAE on a 1+1 deal, it'll really be just over $10.5 million for Smart after reaching a buyout out of nowhere with Washington. I haven't an amount given up reported yet, but it makes sense that the Wizards would want to save some money and clear minutes for their younger players. There just hadn't been much talk about that actually happening yet with Smart, Middleton, or McCollum prior to this.

LA will need to waive at least one of their non-guaranteed contracts, likely Milton, along with maybe another move in order to stay under the First Apron. Smart is in theory a good fit for their roster to both play next to and back up Doncic and Austin Reaves as a defensive specialist and secondary playmaker to warrant such a move and use of the BAE that he could opt out of next year for more money. However, the 31 year old has played a total of 54 games the past two years since being traded by Boston and has always been a questionable shooter (38.8% from the field and 32.4% from deep for his career), so we'll see how much the former Celtics fan favorite can contribute to the rival Lakers.

7/20 Update: Shams reports that not only was Milton's non-guaranteed $3 million waived but so was Goodwin, who had only $25,000 guaranteed of his $2,349,578 contract. That is an unfortunate side effect of this Smart signing since Goodwin carved out a nice role as a tough guard off the bench by the end of last season. It wouldn't be surprising if his minimum contract is claimed by someone and saves the Lakers that $25K.

7/23 Update: The Suns did indeed claim his minimum contract to save the Lakers that small cap hit, per Shams. Funnily enough, they had Goodwin in the '23-24 season when he seemed like a nice addition to the Beal trade, but he wasn't able to maintain his rotation role at the time before being traded at the deadline.


Lillard to sign (back) with the Trail Blazers: 3 years, $42 million (Lowe, Shams with the details 7/17)
Damian Lillard$13,333,333$14,000,000$14,666,667

A reunion with Portland had been mentioned as a possibility for arguably the greatest player in franchise history, but it's pretty stunning to see him get this great of a deal considering the circumstances. I think most people expected Lillard to only take a 1+1 minimum type of deal due to the $112.6 million that he's already owed by Milwaukee, the fact that there will be some set-off relief for that money, and the little issue of the Achilles tear suffered in the playoffs that will likely lead him to miss most of if not all of next season.

Not only are the Blazers using most of/all of their MLE to give him about $27 million for pretty much one guaranteed season ('26-27) before he can opt out, but he is also getting a rare No Trade Clause on top of it. I mentioned in Beal's write up below how both of these guards from the 2012 draft are having similarly huge cap hits stretched out this offseason, and now Lillard is replacing Beal as the only player other than LeBron James. to own a NTC. There were hardly any teams under the First Apron who could offer the full MLE like this, so I'm not exactly sure who they were bidding against with this package.

Having just turned 35 this week, we'll see what Lillard can still contribute coming off of a major injury, and Portland already added another 35 year old guard this summer in Holiday...who hilariously traded for Lillard two years ago. It'll be interesting to see what happens with their young incumbent guards, Henderson and Sharpe, a year from now when theoretically everyone will be available, especially with Sharpe currently eligible for a rookie extension going into the last year of his contract.


Houstan to sign with the Hawks: 1 year deal (Scotto 7/17)
Caleb Houstan$2,296,274

The former high school star hasn't been able to establish himself yet after a nondescript year at Michigan and falling to the top of the 2nd round, so I'm just projecting the minimum here. With three years in the league so far, he's set to earn about $2.4 million if this is a guaranteed deal, which is actually more than the $2,187,699 team option that Orlando declined.


Livingston to re-sign with the Bucks: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/16)
Chris Livingston$2,296,274

Milwaukee had to waive Livingston as part of their series of moves to sign Turner, but they didn't really have to risk him being claimed considering how he fell to the last pick of the 2023 draft and played only 196 total minutes the past two seasons. This actually works out for him since the two-year minimum is now higher than the $2,221,677 that he was set to make, and he could reach restricted free agency a year sooner without the team option that they held on his original deal.


Beal to sign with Clippers: 2 years, $11 million (Shams 7/16)
Bradley Beal$5,354,000$5,621,700

This has been rumored for a while, particularly since LA's Powell trade. Beal getting what's left of their MLE after using $8.75 million of it on Lopez almost makes him whole since he has to give up about $13.9 million of the $110,794,880 that Phoenix still owed him. That was the amount needed in order for them to legally be able to use the stretch provision since they already have $3.8 million in dead cap hits for Nassir Little and EJ Liddell, and a team can only have 15% of the salary cap in stretched money.

Now the Suns will likely have about $19.38 million in dead money for Beal over the next five years, similar to what the Bucks have with another 2012 draft member in Lillard. You could argue that they'd be better off just taking the bigger cap hits for these next two years (even though it means staying in the luxury tax) as long as they could slip under the Second Apron, but either way it's a lot of salary that they're eating. That will be to the benefit of their division rivals, and the Clippers made a lot of sense since Beal has talked about not wanting to uproot his family too much after moving from Washington to Phoenix. Now the 32 year old could potentially do the reverse of what Chris Paul did when he traveled back and forth to LA as a former Clipper who later became a Sun. 

Beal already got a good chunk of his buyout money back and in theory could make it all up next year while still having the player option as a fallback plan. It'll be interesting to see how the rotation works out with him potentially starting next to Harden with Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bench since they seemed to find something with Dunn's defensive presence starting next to Harden. I would guess that a starting role was discussed in the recruitment process and that lineups will be staggered, but in any case, this is a good value to add another player at a position of need.


Anthony to sign with Bucks: 1 year deal (Shams 7/12)
Cole Anthony$2,296,274

I'm very curious about the lack of details around this situation so far on two fronts. First, it hasn't been reported yet how much Anthony gave up of his $13.1 million salary in his buyout with Memphis. As I mentioned below after the Grizzlies' Huff trade, they're about $4 million away from having the necessary cap space to give Jackson his renegotiation-and-extension at the reported number.

Second, the only details about Anthony's Milwaukee deal is that it's for one year. That's usually an indicator that the player is taking the minimum, which I put as a placeholder here for now, and that would only net him about $2.7 million as a five year veteran. They still have $3,647,000 left of the Room MLE to sign him with, so I wouldn't be surprised if that's what he ends up getting and how much he gave back to Memphis since that's usually how these buyout situations go once a new team is identified.

7/14 Update: Gozlan reports that Anthony only had to give up $2 million in his buyout with Memphis, which likely means that he's only getting the minimum from Milwaukee and coming out ahead overall. It's also confirmed that the Grizzlies are stretching the remaining $11.1 million, which seemed like the last possible move with the Spencer update below. JJJ's new cap numbers are finally in now thanks to this, so I updated his section below, as well.

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Roster Analysis: How PG13 and Sabonis Influenced This Finals Matchup

With the NBA Finals about to start, I want to expand on something I put out there once the Conference Finals matchups were set: both the Thunder and Pacers ended up with their star guards thanks to trading Paul George. And really, Domantas Sabonis also has a key role in all of this, but I haven't seen his name thrown out there as often online by people having the same thought after me. There's also been a graphic going around tracing Oklahoma City's core to Rashard Lewis and the three 1st round picks that Sam Presti wound up with thanks to Kurt Thomas, which I wrote about all the way back in 2012 before their last Finals appearance.
I think going that far into the past is a little bit of a stretch, and it's actually both of these teams that can look back at a series of trades involving the same key pieces that started the path to this point nine years ago. I'll stick with the Thunder to start and will keep using screenshots from my past transaction tracker posts as references since that's kind the whole point of why I write them: to look back on how moves were made. Thankfully, I've used the same usual color key of player options/team options/not fully guaranteed/cap holds all these years.

Draft night 2016: In the wake of losing the Western Conference Finals and just weeks away from Kevin Durant's free agency, Presti decided to make a big change by dealing away Serge Ibaka ahead of his own free agency in 2017. The Orlando Magic, coming off of a 35-47 season and desperate to end their post-Dwight Howard rebuild, traded former #2 pick Victor Oladipo (also going into the last year of his contract) and the draft rights to the #11 pick pick that was used on Sabonis, with Ersan Ilyasova's non-guaranteed contract included to match salary before he was traded at the start of the season. 

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Top NFL Rookie TE for 2025

Teams across the NFL have begun their OTAs, so now is a good time to continue looking at this rookie class. After the running backs that I started with, I'd say that tight ends are the next strongest group this year. To reiterate, this isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

And once again, the basis of what I look for originates from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, although TEs are newer to his model. Based on his research and Ryan Heath's at Fantasy Points, athleticism matters the most at this position compared to running backs and especially compared to wide receivers. I'll be weighing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast) and draft day age before production profiles based on career yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, and then situation comes in at the end.


1. Colston Loveland - 1st round, 10th overall pick, 1st TE drafted - Bears

The week of the draft, I posted in my work's "Hot Take Board" that although Tyler Warren will be drafted first, Loveland has the highest upside of this class and will end up as the TE1...and then Chicago made me look smart by taking Loveland first despite all of the mock drafts and rankings out there. He didn't give us any athleticism measurements but did come in at an impressive 6'5.75" and 248 lbs while only turning 21 just a few weeks before the draft.

That youth makes it even more impressive how efficient Loveland was in a limited Michigan passing attack. As a sophomore, he caught 45 passes for 649 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games for the national champions, and while that might not sound like much at the surface level, that's where YPRR tells more of the story given how little his team threw the ball. His 2.38 mark that year is pretty elite, and it was even better last season, 2.67, when his raw totals were 56 catches, 582 yards, and 5 scores in only 10 games. Overall, he finished with 2.22 YPRR for his career before getting awesome draft capital as the first pick of Ben Johnson's career as a head coach. The hottest offensive coordinator on the market, Johnson ran the show in Detroit when Sam LaPorta shockingly led the position in total points as a rookie two years ago, and while I wouldn't expect that lofty of a season due to the WR target competition, Loveland certainly is in line to pace his 2025 peers.

2. Tyler Warren - 1st round, 14th overall pick, 2nd TE drafted - Colts

Warren was widely expected to be the first TE off the board after he had 104 catches, 1,233 yards, and 8 TDs last year with an additional 218 yards and 4 scores on 26 carries, but I'm not entirely surprised that he fell slightly since that came somewhat out of nowhere as a redshirt senior. As a high school quarterback who joined a position group at Penn State that contained three other NFL players (Pat Freiermuth, Brenton Strange, and Theo Johnson), it's understandable that he was a late bloomer, having just turned 23 this past week compared to Loveland.

It all came together last year for 2.78 YPRR after being at 1.41 and 1.34 the previous two seasons, and that brought his career rate to a strong 1.98. Neither of these top-two TEs gave us athletic testing, but you can see on film how much Warren beasted opponents at 6'5.5" and 256 lbs. The problem in the immediate future is that he landed in Indianapolis, where either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones will be throwing passes to him as a rookie. While I already would've had him as #2 in this class, I think that drops him to a tier by himself after Loveland.

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

2025 Lottery Reaction & the Results of Traded Picks

I say it every year, but lottery is always one of the most fun dates on the NBA calendar...even if I absolutely hated this year's results. Whether it's winning the game of capture the Flagg with the #1 pick this year or a team's pick moving in or out of its crucial protection range, it's amazing to see front offices that meticulously plan and maneuver be at the mercy of random ping pong ball combinations. And after I described last year's edition as absolute chaos, this year's was was pure pandemonium with all of the movement.

As has become custom, here's a rundown of rapid fire reactions to the drawing, followed by a final tally of how all of the previously traded 1st rounders turned out. There have been so many picks dealt over the last handful of years that over half of those league's selections are not with their own teams in each round.
  • To start things off, Dallas aficionado Marc Stein pointed out that this is the first time in Mavericks history that they even moved up at all in the lottery. Them winning the #1 pick was probably the most controversial result possible after stunning the basketball world with the Luka Doncic trade earlier this year...and then continually compounding it by badmouthing his work ethic afterwards and making idiotic statements like not knowing how important he was to the fan base. You hate to see stupidity rewarded, especially when there was just a 1.8% chance of this outcome.

  • Amazingly, Dallas made that trade with a win-now mindset yet gets the long-term gift of Duke forward Cooper Flagg after they ended up only making the Play-In tournament. They finished tied for the 11th-best lottery odds and won a coin flip as the tiebreaker to have 18 of the 1,000 four-digit ping pong ball combinations. Chicago received 17...and the wrong half of the set of numbers that were divided between the two teams, it turns out. 

  • The 10 spot jump tied the 1993 Magic for the highest among lottery winners, and that team famously winning back to back years, despite just a 1.52% chance, prompted the league to change the format. The only other teams to win with longer odds than the Mavs' 1.8% were the 2008 Bulls and 2014 Cavaliers (also back to back winners), who both hit the 1.7% chance of moving up from the #9 pick in the previous system.

  • There's naturally going to be talk of the NBA rigging the system to give Dallas a new star in exchange for putting Luka in the glamour LA market like how New Orleans won the 2019 lottery to set up Anthony Davis going to the Lakers in the first place. Watching the videos of the actual drawing that the league posts every year, though, I have no idea how they would actually do it.



Saturday, May 10, 2025

Top NFL Rookie RBs for 2025

Now that the NFL Draft is firmly in the rearview mirror and my first dynasty league rookie draft is over, I wanted to put together some thoughts on this year's class. It's a total flip from last year's strong group of wide receivers and flawed running backs, so this time I'm starting with the unusually deep class of RBs. This isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

As often mentioned, the three factors that I take into consideration for this are production profiles, physical traits, and situation. I care most about the first part and have based a lot of what I look for on JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, so I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's receptions, and his share of the team's total touchdowns in the games that he played. Athleticism does matter a bit more at this position than at WR, though, so players' Speed Score (based on 40 yard dash and weight) and jumps are important. Stats cited are coming from Sports Reference while measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic.


1. Ashton Jeanty - 1st round, 6th overall, 1st RB drafted - Raiders

This is an easy start after Jeanty finished just shy of breaking Barry's Sanders' NCAA record for rushing yards in a season and then got top-10 draft capital to a RB-needy team. Even before Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a junior, he was a great prospect based on a sophomore year that saw him have 2.42 total yards per play, 1.85 receiving yards per attempt, a 23.76% reception share, and 41.30% TD share. Anything approaching 2, 0.70, 12%, and 35% as a best season mark in those categories is great, and he shattered each of those as a 19 year old.

Jeanty wasn't asked to do as much through the air last year due to the heavy workload on the ground, but he still had a respectable 8.81% reception share while bumping his TY/P and TD% to 2.82 and 45.45%, respectively. He did measure only 5'8.5" and didn't work out at all in the pre-draft process (because he didn't need to), but he is a solid 211 lbs and obviously showed he can be a workhorse with 397 total touches last year.

RBs getting drafted this highly are practically guaranteed to see large workloads anyway, but both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are no longer with the Raiders after leading the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert was signed as a veteran option, but at 33 years old, the speedster will likely only be a change of pace option and not much of a threat to receiving work. Jeanty could be a top-5 fantasy RB immediately and is the 1.01 in rookie drafts.


2. Omarion Hampton - 1st round, 22nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Chargers

In a lot of classes, Hampton would be the RB1 and was the only other 1st rounder at the position thanks to a very complete profile after 1,500+ rushing yards, 15 TDs, and 29+ catches as both a sophomore and junior. He averaged a strong 1.82 TY/P and decent 0.49 RY/PA with solid 9.93% and 29.63% market shares in the first of those years before improving across the board to elite marks of 2.40, 0.99, 17.35%, and 39.53%.

Hampton did this at 5'11.75" and 221 lbs, and even with that size he ran a 4.46 40 yard dash for a great Speed Score of 111.71. He also had a 38" vertical and 10'10" broad jump to further show his explosiveness, so he certainly looks the part of a bell cow 'back. How soon until he gets that role is to be determined because the Chargers are an interesting landing spot. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman typically like to lean on the running game often, and they've chosen to leave last year's leading rushers, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, unsigned.

Najee Harris was added instead, but it's only a one-year deal with $5.25 million guaranteed before another possible $4M in incentives, per OverTheCap.com. While both Harris and Hampton are big, well-rounded RBs, the veteran doesn't offer much big-play ability as he infamously doesn't have a run of 40+ yards in his career. Even if it's not top-10 draft capital like Jeanty, 1st round RBs are usually featured, so Hampton could easily be the leader of this committee by season's end ahead of Harris hitting free agency again. I'm also a fan Raheim Sanders, whom they added as a surprising undrafted free agent, and perhaps he could work his way into becoming Hampton's backup a year from now. 

Saturday, April 19, 2025

2025 NBA End of Season Thoughts

It's NBA playoff time! Like last year, I wanted to take a quick look at each matchup based on record, net, offensive, and defensive ratings on NBA.com and also provide a trend or statistical note for each team. Lineup data is from NBA.com while individual splits are from Basketball Reference, and the matchups are listed in order of record.


#1 Thunder (68-14, +12.7, #3 O, #1 D) vs. #8 Grizzlies (48-34, +4.7, #6 O, #11 D)

Oklahoma City's big free agent signing Isaiah Hartenstein missed the start of the season, and then Chet Holmgren suffered his own injury early on, resulting in their ideal starting lineup of those two with my choice for MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort surprisingly only playing 167 total minutes across 14 games together. OKC of course went 10-4 with a +15.0 net rating in those minutes, and overall the two bigs played 316 total minutes together to produce a +13.5 net rating. The Thunder's most used 5-man lineup was much smaller with Cason Wallace in place of Holmgren, and that actually juiced their already elite defense to an unbelievable 101.0 rating for a +15.9 net in 316 minutes. They just have so much versatility with a deep roster and the reigning Coach of the Year pulling the strings, and that combination helped produce the best point differential in NBA history. I think that they're the clear pick to come out of the West.
Memphis was able to advance in the Play-In tournament despite Ja Morant rolling his ankle in the first game, but the injury seemed to catch up to him in the second half en route to shooting just 7-24. Another injury that they have to deal with is rookie gem Jaylen Wells being out with a broken wrist after a scary fall late in the season. The Rookie of the Year contender played a big role as a lengthy defender, and in 543 minutes of him, Morant, and Desmond Bane as a perimeter trio, they had a +9.0 net rating. Scotty Pippen Jr., another breakout find, stepped up as a starter in Wells' place for the two Play-In games, but that's a pretty small group to go against OKC's big guards. Pippen with Morant and Bane had a -1.4 net rating in the regular season, albeit in only 98 minutes, so I wouldn't be surprised if that lineup changes now based on the matchup. However, I'm not sure what to expect out of interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo, who only went 4-5 to finish the season after the surprising dismissal of Taylor Jenkins so late in the season. Between the difference in coaching between these two teams and the fact that the Thunder have won 9 straight versus the Grizzlies, I'm going with a sweep here despite this being a strong #8 seed.

Thunder in 4


#1 Cavaliers (64-18, +9.2, #1 O, #8 D) vs. #8 Heat (37-45, +0.4, #21 O, #9 D)

I wrote in this piece a year ago about Evan Mobley's increase in three pointers to end the year, and he took that a step further this season to average 3.2 attempts while still making 37%. He also bumped up his free throw attempts to 4.3 per game even with spending more time outside the arc, which could be attributed to the new coaching staff utilizing him more as an attacker from the elbows. It's a bit ironic that Kenny Atkinson has a great case for Coach of the Year for improving this team by 16 wins to runaway with the top seed in the East, but he might lose to the coach that he replaced last year. One of the more interesting decisions that he made was to keep Max Strus in the starting lineup after he got up full speed, despite the big trade deadline move for De'Andre Hunter. With the former next to Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, they had a +12.5 net rating in 243 minutes. That rises to +18.5 with Hunter, but that five man combination surprisingly only played a tiny sample of 39 minutes together.

Miami's new starting lineup has almost as small of a sample size with Tyler Herro, Alec Burks, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware only playing 46 regular season minutes together...but to the tune of a +36.7 net rating in that limited time. Including the Play-In, that group is now 5-1 together after they made history to be the first #10 seed to make the playoffs. I'm only picking them to take one game here out of faith in Erik Spoelstra and their battle-tested veterans, though, because this group lacks consistent offense, as seen in the 4th quarter of the second Play-In game that they seemingly had in control like the first. That's partly why they might be my favorite of the rumored Kevin Durant destinations this summer, and they have up to three 1st round picks that they could potentially include with the matching salary of Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, and Kyle Anderson in the last guaranteed years of their contracts. Young players like Ware, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic, or Pelle Larsson could be mixed in to improve the offer and break up the salaries as a third team might need to be included to avoid Apron restrictions, but in any case, I can see a path here that makes sense once the Heat inevitably flame out in the playoffs with the talent disparity. 

Cavs in 5


#2 Celtics (61-21, +9.4, #2 O, #4 D) vs. #7 Magic (41-41, -0.2, #27 O, #2 D)

Boston's traditional starting lineup of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis only played 357 total minutes together over 24 games (going 18-6), and amazingly, it had a 0.0 net rating. This comes after that same group posted a +11.0 net rating over 623 minutes last season, though, so I'm not too worried. The ability to plug in Al Horford and/or potential Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard into various configurations to either play big or small gives their top-seven rotation valuable versatility, and adding in Sam Hauser's shooting and Luke Kornet's size helps round out their rotation nicely. Brown's lingering knee issue is a bit concerning, but both him and Tatum improving their career-highs in assists from 3.6 to 4.5 and 4.9 to 6.0, respectively, was an underrated storyline of Boston's season. I still think they're the team to beat in the East after they were mostly able to coast in their title defense and still reached 61 wins.

It may have surprised folks tuning into the Play-In game to see journeyman Cory Joseph as the starting point guard for Orlando with Jalen Suggs injured, but they went 11-4 down the stretch with him in the lineup before resting players on the last day. His numbers won't blow anyone away with 6.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.4 turnovers in just 22.2 minutes with 43.1%/38.2%/83.3% shooting, but that caretaker 3+D role fit with their main starters (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr) surprisingly well to post a +11.5 net rating in 216 minutes. I just don't trust their offense enough to keep up with Boston's firepower for a full series, so even though they were a tough matchup to win two of the three meetings this season, I'm going with a gentleman's sweep.

Celtics in 5

Saturday, February 8, 2025

2025 NBA Trade Summaries

Now that the dust has settled on the 2025 NBA Trade Deadline, I wanted to take a high-level view of what every team did. The full details of every trade made this season, including how the salaries matched and the particulars of which draft pick was moved are in my tracker. This is just a more succinct look of who or what came in and out, listed in order of championship odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 8th along with each team's current record.

Only four teams (the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Magic, and Trail Blazers) didn't make a trade, so there is plenty to take in across the league. I also listed which players were cut in corresponding moves with the deals, and signings to fill the vacated roster spots. Finally, any draft compensation listed as "fake" is a pick that isn't likely to convey.

Thunder, 41-9. +230, 1st
In: Daniel Theis (waived), Ajay Mitchell (Two-Way conversion), two 2nd round picks

Out: one 2nd round pick, cash considerations

Celtics, 36-16. +250, 2nd
In: Torrey Craig (free agent signing post-trade), one fake 2nd round pick

Out: Jaden Springer, one 2nd round pick, one fake 2nd round pick

Cavaliers, 42-10. +750, 3rd
In: De'Andre Hunter

Out: Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, two 1st round pick swaps (after previous swaps), three 2nd round picks

Knicks, 34-17. +950, 4th
In: Delon Wright, draft rights to Hugo Besson (58th pick in 2022), cash considerations

Out: Jericho Sims, draft rights to Mathias Lessort (50th pick in 2017)

Nuggets, 33-19. +1500, T-5th
In: None
Out: None

Lakers, 30-19. +1500, T-5th
In: Luka Doncic, Mark Williams, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Shake Milton, Markieff Morris, cash considerations

Out: Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Max Christie, Dalton Knecht, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Cam Reddish, Maxwell Lewis, two one 1st round picks, one 1st round pick swap, four 2nd round picks

2/8 Update: The Lakers announced that the Williams trade has been rescinded “due to failure to satisfy a condition of the trade.”

Grizzlies, 35-16. +3000, T-7th
In: Marvin Bagley, Johnny Davis, two 2nd round picks

Out: Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, one protected 1st round pick

Clippers, 28-23. +3000, T-7th
In: Bogdran Bogdanovic, Drew Eubanks, Patty Mills, MarJon Beauchamp, Ben Simmons (free agent signing post trades), three 2nd round picks

Out: Terance Mann, PJ Tucker, Kevin Porter Jr, Bones Hyland, Mo Bamba, one 2nd round pick, cash considerations

Bucks, 27-23. +3000, T-7th
In: Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr, one 2nd round pick, one fake 2nd round pick

Out: Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Delon Wright, MarJon Beauchamp, one 1st round pick swap, draft rights to Hugo Besson (58th pick in 2022), cash considerations