It's NBA playoff time! Like last year, I wanted to take a quick look at each matchup based on record, net, offensive, and defensive ratings on NBA.com and also provide a trend or statistical note for each team. Lineup data is from NBA.com while individual splits are from Basketball Reference, and the matchups are listed in order of record.
#1 Thunder (68-14, +12.7, #3 O, #1 D) vs. #8 Grizzlies (48-34, +4.7, #6 O, #11 D)
Oklahoma City's big free agent signing Isaiah Hartenstein missed the start of the season, and then Chet Holmgren suffered his own injury early on, resulting in their ideal starting lineup of those two with my choice for MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort surprisingly only playing 167 total minutes across 14 games together. OKC of course went 10-4 with a +15.0 net rating in those minutes, and overall the two bigs played 316 total minutes together to produce a +13.5 net rating. The Thunder's most used 5-man lineup was much smaller with Cason Wallace in place of Holmgren, and that actually juiced their already elite defense to an unbelievable 101.0 rating for a +15.9 net in 316 minutes. They just have so much versatility with a deep roster and the reigning Coach of the Year pulling the strings, and that combination helped produce the best point differential in NBA history. I think that they're the clear pick to come out of the West.
The Thunder finished the 2024-25 season with a point differential of +1,055.
— Nick Gallo (@NickAGallo) April 13, 2025
That's the biggest point differential in NBA history.
Memphis was able to advance in the Play-In tournament despite Ja Morant rolling his ankle in the first game, but the injury seemed to catch up to him in the second half en route to shooting just 7-24. Another injury that they have to deal with is rookie gem Jaylen Wells being out with a broken wrist after a scary fall late in the season. The Rookie of the Year contender played a big role as a lengthy defender, and in 543 minutes of him, Morant, and Desmond Bane as a perimeter trio, they had a +9.0 net rating. Scotty Pippen Jr., another breakout find, stepped up as a starter in Wells' place for the two Play-In games, but that's a pretty small group to go against OKC's big guards. Pippen with Morant and Bane had a -1.4 net rating in the regular season, albeit in only 98 minutes, so I wouldn't be surprised if that lineup changes now based on the matchup. However, I'm not sure what to expect out of interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo, who only went 4-5 to finish the season after the surprising dismissal of Taylor Jenkins so late in the season. Between the difference in coaching between these two teams and the fact that the Thunder have won 9 straight versus the Grizzlies, I'm going with a sweep here despite this being a strong #8 seed.
Thunder in 4
#1 Cavaliers (64-18, +9.2, #1 O, #8 D) vs. #8 Heat (37-45, +0.4, #21 O, #9 D)
I wrote in this piece a year ago about Evan Mobley's increase in three pointers to end the year, and he took that a step further this season to average 3.2 attempts while still making 37%. He also bumped up his free throw attempts to 4.3 per game even with spending more time outside the arc, which could be attributed to the new coaching staff utilizing him more as an attacker from the elbows. It's a bit ironic that Kenny Atkinson has a great case for Coach of the Year for improving this team by 16 wins to runaway with the top seed in the East, but he might lose to the coach that he replaced last year. One of the more interesting decisions that he made was to keep Max Strus in the starting lineup after he got up full speed, despite the big trade deadline move for De'Andre Hunter. With the former next to Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, they had a +12.5 net rating in 243 minutes. That rises to +18.5 with Hunter, but that five man combination surprisingly only played a tiny sample of 39 minutes together.
Miami's new starting lineup has almost as small of a sample size with Tyler Herro, Alec Burks, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware only playing 46 regular season minutes together...but to the tune of a +36.7 net rating in that limited time. Including the Play-In, that group is now 5-1 together after they made history to be the first #10 seed to make the playoffs. I'm only picking them to take one game here out of faith in Erik Spoelstra and their battle-tested veterans, though, because this group lacks consistent offense, as seen in the 4th quarter of the second Play-In game that they seemingly had in control like the first. That's partly why they might be my favorite of the rumored Kevin Durant destinations this summer, and they have up to three 1st round picks that they could potentially include with the matching salary of Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, and Kyle Anderson in the last guaranteed years of their contracts. Young players like Ware, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic, or Pelle Larsson could be mixed in to improve the offer and break up the salaries as a third team might need to be included to avoid Apron restrictions, but in any case, I can see a path here that makes sense once the Heat inevitably flame out in the playoffs with the talent disparity.
Cavs in 5
#2 Celtics (61-21, +9.4, #2 O, #4 D) vs. #7 Magic (41-41, -0.2, #27 O, #2 D)
Boston's traditional starting lineup of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis only played 357 total minutes together over 24 games (going 18-6), and amazingly, it had a 0.0 net rating. This comes after that same group posted a +11.0 net rating over 623 minutes last season, though, so I'm not too worried. The ability to plug in Al Horford and/or potential Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard into various configurations to either play big or small gives their top-seven rotation valuable versatility, and adding in Sam Hauser's shooting and Luke Kornet's size helps round out their rotation nicely. Brown's lingering knee issue is a bit concerning, but both him and Tatum improving their career-highs in assists from 3.6 to 4.5 and 4.9 to 6.0, respectively, was an underrated storyline of Boston's season. I still think they're the team to beat in the East after they were mostly able to coast in their title defense and still reached 61 wins.
It may have surprised folks tuning into the Play-In game to see journeyman Cory Joseph as the starting point guard for Orlando with Jalen Suggs injured, but they went 11-4 down the stretch with him in the lineup before resting players on the last day. His numbers won't blow anyone away with 6.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.4 turnovers in just 22.2 minutes with 43.1%/38.2%/83.3% shooting, but that caretaker 3+D role fit with their main starters (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr) surprisingly well to post a +11.5 net rating in 216 minutes. I just don't trust their offense enough to keep up with Boston's firepower for a full series, so even though they were a tough matchup to win two of the three meetings this season, I'm going with a gentleman's sweep.
Celtics in 5
#2 Rockets (52-30, +4.6, #12 O, #5 D) vs. #7 Warriors (48-34, +3.2, #16 O, #7 D)
Playing multiple positions, Amen Thompson had a breakout second season to supplant Jabari Smith as a starter, and in his 42 starts averaged 16 points, 9.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.6 blocks, and only 2.2 turnovers over 35.9 minutes with 56%/27%/68.4% shooting. What's odd is that while Houston went 13-5 when starting Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Thompson, and Alperen Sengun, that lineup actually had a -7.6 net rating in 323 minutes compared to +5.2 in 450 minutes with the Smith version that was 19-10. I guess starting smaller helps toggle combinations for their other units later in the game, but I much prefer the lineup with Thompson and Smith together at Brooks' expense (+4.7 in only 92 minutes), especially when considering long-term constructions. They still have a good amount of optionality going forward with the draft capital they possess and moveable contracts, and it's funny to me that they're matched up with the team that traded for Jimmy Butler since I thought they could've made sense for the Tomball, Texas native.
Once Butler debuted on February 8th, Golden State went 23-8 with a +9.2 net rating fueled by the #1 defense while also having the #8 offense. Counting the Play-In, the Warriors are now 23-5 when both he and Stephen Curry play, and the lineup with those two next to Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, and Draymond Green had a +16.4 net rating in 211 regular season minutes. It's impressive that such a small lineup is so tough defensively, and while I don't like Green's loud campaigning working, this goes to show how deserving he is of finally winning his second Defensive Player of the Year award. Another fun stat going around about their record is that they're 27-7 when Moody starts, and he averaged 11 points with 44.9%/39.4%/86.3% shooting in that role as a versatile 3+D wing. Finally, Podz was the last piece to enter that current starting lineup, and since he left one game after just 44 seconds that brings down his averages, I wanted to point out his stats in his 22 full games to end the season: 16.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and only 1.4 turnovers in 31.5 minutes with 46.2%/43.1%/81.3% shooting. This is a high-IQ group with a ton of playoff experience among its stars, and I think they'll pull off the upset against a team new to the playoffs in a matchup reminiscent of their 1st round against the Kings in 2023.
Warriors in 7
#3 Knicks (51-31, +4.0, #5 O, T-#13 D) vs. #6 Pistons (44-38, +2.1, #14 O, #10 D)
OG Anunoby averaged a career-high 18 points per game, and it was largely fueled by taking on more offensive responsibility to go with his usual defensive prowess when Jalen Brunson was hurt. He had a rough first game without the All-Star, but over Anunoby's final 17 games of the season he averaged 23.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, and only 1.4 turnovers with 49.1%/39.7%/83.5% shooting, and the last three of those came with Brunson back. When the two of them share the court with Karl-Anthony Towns, they had a +6.0 net rating in a huge sample size of 1,157 minutes. The way Tom Thibodeau handles his starters' minutes could catch up to them deeper into the playoffs, but right now they look in good shape to advance past this inexperienced opponent.
After back to back years of having the worst record in the league (and having bottom-3 records the two years before that), Detroit became the first team in NBA history to more than triple their win total from 14 wins to 44 this year. I joked early in the season how it's amazing what finally surrounding Cade Cunningham with actual shooting and coaching competence can produce, but that ended up selling JB Bickerstaff short in a campaign that should earn him the Coach of the Year award. And while I was on the record as liking the Malik Beasley signing best out of their veteran additions last summer, who could've seen him making 319 threes, the 8th-most threes in NBA history, to help carry their second unit as another 6MOY contender! Their main lineup to end the year with Cunningham playing next to Tim Hardaway Jr., Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, and Jalen Duren went 20-14 and had a +6.1 net rating over 491 minutes, so they could be tough on New York. With offense already somewhat of a challenge, though, I'm just not sure how they'll do under the bright lights.
Knicks in 5
#3 Lakers (50-32, +1.2, #11 O, #17 D) vs. #6 Timberwolves (49-33, +5.0, #8 O, #6 D)
L.A.'s net rating looks a little better if you filter to after Luka Doncic's debut with them on February 10th, but that +2.2 still only ranks 14th in the league. Instead, I'm going to focus on Austin Reaves, who improved his scoring average from 15.9 to 20.2 thanks to both taking and making more 3's (2.7 of 7.3 for 37.7%). It really started once D'Angelo Russell was traded on December 29th: Reaves averaged 21.6 points, 5.9 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and only 2.4 turnovers with 46.9%/38.4%/90.7% shooting in 47 games after that. He's proven to be exactly the type of well-rounded guard you want next to Doncic and LeBron James on offense, as shown by that trio's 117.8 offensive rating in 423 minutes together. That would be a top-5 mark on the season, but they only have a +0.1 net rating due to the team's defensive limitations.
There was a lot of talk this season about Anthony Edwards taking "too many" threes when he should be using his extraordinary athleticism to attack the basket more, but the funny thing is that he still averaged almost the exact amount of free throw attempts as last year, 6.4 versus 6.3. Apparently being able to keep up in shooting competitions with Team USA over the summer inspired him to mostly just cut a few long two's to raise his three point attempts to 10.3 while improving his percentage to 39.5% en route to 27.6 points per game, all career-highs. He finished with 320 threes, the 7th-most threes all time, and the addition of Donte DiVincenzo added another guard who can bomb away and provide playmaking for their team that made the Conference Finals last year. As expected, Julius Randle was a bit up and down in replacing Towns, but Naz Reid was able to maintain his production with the increased role to also make up for that. The grouping of Edwards, DiVincenzo, and Reid playing together had a +7.4 net rating in 646 minutes, so they can still win with different combinations of size next to Ant-Man. Although facing Doncic again will be a challenge after that WCF, I'm leaning towards them taking advantage inside.
Wolves in 7
#4 Nuggets (50-32, +3.8, #4 O, #21 D) vs. #5 Clippers (50-32, +4.9, #15 O, #3 D)
After missing two games in early December, Jamal Murray averaged 23 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.1 turnovers with 49.3%/41.7%/91.9% shooting over his next 48 games with Denver going 31-17 in them. However he missed six games late in the year with a hamstring injury, and a four-game losing streak during that stretch contributed to the shocking firing of head coach Michael Malone less than two years after they won the championship. Interim coach David Adelman went 3-0 with Murray back for the last two, but he only scored 15 and 16 points with poor shooting.
L.A. finished the season on a 18-3 stretch that mostly coincided with their best lineup getting healthy. Kris Dunn, James Harden, Norman Powell, Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac went 13-3 as a starting five and had a +9.5 net rating over 286 minutes. It's a balanced group with a 117.3 offensive rating that would've ranked 5th for the whole season and a 107.9 defensive rating that would've ranked 2nd, and trusting Zubac (whom I'd love to see win Most Improved) and Powell with more responsibility after letting Paul George go worked out better than they could've hoped. I hate to pile on PG13, but perhaps their cursed record against the Nuggets going back to The Bubble has been cured with his departure as they split the series this season. I'm going with the hotter team with the big coaching advantage and who doesn't have Russell Westbrook on their roster anymore.
Clippers in 7
#4 Pacers (50-32, +2.1, #9 O, T-#13 D) vs. #5 Bucks (48-34, +2.4, #10 O, #11 D)
I'm not exactly sure what changed with the flip of the calendar year, but since the start of 2025, Tyrese Haliburton averaged 19.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, and only 1.5 turnovers with 51%/43.1%/85.1% shooting in just 32.1 minutes as Indiana went 30-9 in the 39 games he played. Overall the difference between Indiana's two starting lineups with Haliburton, Andrew Nemhard, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner flanked by either Aaron Nesmith or Bennedict Mathurin isn't much: a 16-8 record and +11.1 net rating with the former versus 18-7 and 11.9. However, since January 1st when Hali started looking like a superstar again, the Nesmith group has a +15.3 net rating in 314 minutes compared to +9.0 in 194 minutes with Mathurin.
In Kyle Kuzma's first 32 games with Milwaukee after being traded at the deadline, he only averaged 14.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.4 blocks with 44.6%/31.5%/66% shooting. Then in the last game of the season that didn't matter he went off for 22 points while playing only the 1st quarter with a lineup of backups, going 8/10 from the field and 5/7 on threes to inflate his percentages with the team. For the season in total he shot 43.6%/30.7%/63.4% over 65 games for 51.4% true shooting with a 24% usage rate, and playoff defenses might treat him that way. Due to Damian Lillard's scary blood clot situation, the two of them and Giannis Antetokounmpo only played 249 minutes together with a 112.2 offensive rating that would've ranked 22nd on the season. The defense with those three was an elite 107.5 that would've ranked 2nd if you want a sign of hope. Shams Charania reports Lillard could return in Game 2 or 3 as he ramps up for a return, but who knows how playoff-ready he'll be after being out since March 18th. I don't love picking against Giannis as the best player in the series, but with the uncertainty, I'm rolling with the team that has home court advantage.
Pacers in 7
Finals pick: Celtics over the Thunder in 6.
Part of me wants to believe in Oklahoma City's unbelievable numbers, but I have a hard time trusting their lack of playoff experience just yet. New additions Hartenstein and Alex Caruso are the only members of their rotation to play extended playoff minutes beyond one 2nd Round appearance. Contrast that with Boston's going to the Eastern Conference Finals or further in six of the last eight years, aka since Brown was drafted, and eventually breaking through to win it all last year.
It's far from a sure thing, but I think the Celtics will become the first repeat champion since the '17-'18 Warriors with Durant. And to bring things full circle, I actually wonder if a reunion between KD and the Thunder could make sense this summer. Shams has mentioned multiple times in his reporting that how teams perform this postseason could determine who emerges with the most trade interest in making the two-time Finals MVP their missing piece. Even at age 36 he was sixth in the league in scoring and had a huge impact on Phoenix's record as they went 33-29 with him and just 3-17 without (basically the opposite of Brad Beal), and their net rating went down by 4.9 in the minutes without him.
OKC certainly has the ability to make a deal work with their treasure trove of draft picks (which could include a juicy one) and players on rookie-scale contracts like Wallace, Nikola Topic, or Ousmane Dieng to mix in with either mid-sized contracts like Caruso, Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, or Kenrich Williams or the bigger salary of Hartenstein. And they could that while still sliding in under the Luxury Tax and providing some cap relief for Phoenix to try to get under the Second Apron. Going into the last year of his contract, Durant and his management will reportedly work with the Suns front office on where he prefers to go (and potentially sign an extension to give a new team more willingness to include top assets), and only he knows what he's looking for. Would he want to go back to where he became a star in order to finally deliver the city's elusive first title? Maybe if they show some playoff potential but ultimately come up short like I'm picking here.
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