Roster Analysis: How PG13 and Sabonis Influenced This Finals Matchup

With the NBA Finals about to start, I want to expand on something I put out there once the Conference Finals matchups were set: both the Thunder and Pacers ended up with their star guards thanks to trading Paul George. And really, Domantas Sabonis also has a key role in all of this, but I haven't seen his name thrown out there as often online by people having the same thought after me. There's also been a graphic going around tracing Oklahoma City's core to Rashard Lewis and the three 1st round picks that Sam Presti wound up with thanks to Kurt Thomas, which I wrote about all the way back in 2012 before their last Finals appearance.

This tweet from last week somewhat inspired me to dig into how these Finals rosters were built again, and it's kind of surreal that I wrote this THIRTEEN years ago about the Presti early years masterclass. Time flies, man https://t.co/zrDP1OGpjF pic.twitter.com/muDuHy7pNB

— Dave Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) June 5, 2025

I think going that far into the past is a little bit of a stretch, and it's actually both of these teams that can look back at a series of trades involving the same key pieces that started the path to this point nine years ago. I'll stick with the Thunder to start and will keep using screenshots from my past transaction tracker posts as references since that's kind the whole point of why I write them: to look back on how moves were made. Thankfully, I've used the same usual color key of player options/team options/not fully guaranteed/cap holds all these years.

Draft night 2016: In the wake of losing the Western Conference Finals and just weeks away from Kevin Durant's free agency, Presti decided to make a big change by dealing away Serge Ibaka ahead of his own free agency in 2017. The Orlando Magic, coming off of a 35-47 season and desperate to end their post-Dwight Howard rebuild, traded former #2 pick Victor Oladipo (also going into the last year of his contract) and the draft rights to the #11 pick pick that was used on Sabonis, with Ersan Ilyasova's non-guaranteed contract included to match salary before he was traded at the start of the season. 

Oladipo ended up signing a 4 year, $84 million rookie extension at the start of the season and had the same type of solid production that he showed in Orlando. Sabonis somewhat surprisingly started most of his rookie season in a stretch four type of role, albeit a limited one of only 20 minutes per game with 5.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1 assist, and 39.9%/32.1%/65.7% shooting. OKC went 47-35 and lost their First Round series in five games as the #6 seed.

June 30th, 2017: The opening hours of free agency that were dominated by George trade rumors suddenly experienced a shockwave when Indiana chose essentially the same package that Ibaka was traded for.

Everyone knew that a move was coming since he was a year away from opting out of his contract, but Boston, with a treasure trove of draft assets, or a homecoming to L.A. were the expected destination options. There was talk at the time that Indiana didn't want to have to face him in the East if they went with the Celtics offer, but not getting a single pick was stunning. Just as surprising was the fact that after going 48-34 and losing a First Round matchup in six games as the #4 seed this time, the Thunder were somehow able to get George to re-sign after his opt out. That's probably the biggest swing factor in all of this.

PG13 went on to have the best season of his career after that with averages 28 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 2.2 steals, and he finished third in MVP voting. OKC still only improved by one game again in such a tough West that 49-33 was the #6 seed, though, and they once again lost in the First Round in five games. In that summer of 2019, Kawhi Leonard, fresh off of his second Finals MVP, decided that he wanted to go back home to Southern California if the Clippers could land a co-star for him, and Presti decided it was time to reset the roster after these early playoff exits.

July 5th, 2019: This was one of those moments in NBA history when you remember where you were when it happened. No Finals MVP had ever left immediately after the championship, and nobody knew yet that the Thunder were going to blow things up. Pairing together two of the best two-way wings of the decade at the peak of their powers wasn't on anyone's radar...and L.A. was willing to do whatever it took to make it happen with a massive return for OKC.

It's always referred to as "The Paul George Trade," but really it was for both George and Leonard since making the move for the former was required to sign the latter. Presti drove a hard bargain to get three unprotected 1st rounders and two swaps from the Clippers that were pushed as far down the line as possible to convey when the stars were older; two Heat 1st rounders that were acquired in the Tobias Harris trade five months prior and the Moe Harkless salary dump from a few days before; a still productive Danilo Gallinari on an expiring contract; and of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander coming off of a solid rookie season.

I was a fan of SGA going back to the 2017 Nike Hoop Summit, and like a lot of people, I thought that he could develop into a nice starter. Even after he started almost his entire rookie season for an overachieving Clippers squad, which is a bit of a rare feat for a young player under Doc Rivers, I don't think anyone saw a future MVP based on 10.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 1.2 steals in 26.5 minutes with 47.6%/36.7%/80% shooting as a 20 year old. Still, Presti reportedly insisted on Gilgeous-Alexander being in the deal along with the five 1st round picks and two swaps, so he saw the vision of his next great team.

And from then on the Thunder went into rebuilding mode with other trades that focused on future draft capital, namely with Russell Westbrook and Jerami Grant, and prioritizing the development of young players. One of which was rookie Lu Dort on a two-way contract after going undrafted, and he fittingly just made his first All-Defense team. Ironically, they ended up with a better winning percentage, 44-28 in the COVID-shortened season, and still had the same fate of a First Round exit, this time in seven games as the #5 seed. 

Head coach Billy Donovan left after an extension wasn't reached, and it was the following two years under newly promoted assistant Mark Daigneault that they really tanked with 22-50 and 24-58 records as they developed their core with waves of draft picks, even while still acquiring more down the line. That haul from the Clippers is really what set them up to go in this direction, and although the first selection from those picks, Tre Mann in '21, didn't work out, the second one in '22 was Jalen Williams, who just made All-NBA. The '23 swap didn't convey due to L.A.'s superior record while the 1st from Miami that year got pushed out in later maneuverings to become the #15 pick this month. OKC traded the '24 pick in exchange for the right to swap 2028 1st round picks with Dallas...and then ended up trading five 2nd rounders on draft night to get it back and take Dillon Jones at #26. The swap this year bumped them up from #30 to #24, and then next year's 1st rounder will be the last pick that the Clips owe from that deal.

Finishing tied for the fourth-worst record in that first year under Daigneault, who had developmental experience as the organization's G League head coach for five years, resulted in the #6 pick after some bad lottery luck. That selection, Josh Giddey, had some good moments as a starter for three years, but going into the last year of his rookie deal, he was flipped for a veteran defensive ace off the bench, Alex Caruso. OKC had the fourth-worst record again the next year, but this time they moved two spots up, and that 12.23% chance of landing in that slot resulted in another foundational piece, Chet Holmgren.

Improving to 40-42 and a Play-In appearance led to the #12 pick in 2023, and they were able to move up to #10 to take their other defensive weapon off the bench, Cason Wallace, in exchange for taking on Davis Bertans' big contract. That almost brings things full circle to taking on the Thomas contract back in 2007, but instead of more rebuilding, the Thunder made the leap in the ensuing '23-24 season to 57-25 and the #1 seed. Their Second Round exit led to splurging on Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency last summer after masterfully managing the team options and cap holds of Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins. Those two, along with Jaylin Williams, are former 2nd round picks (by Philadelphia for Joe, a savvy signing after being waived in training camp) who were allowed the room to develop in the rebuilding years. And they still have plenty of draft capital in upcoming years to add more talent, either by making the picks themselves or picking off practically any trade target they want.

So that covers the 10 Thunder players who have played in 14 of their 16 games this postseason, with 126+ minutes each, and how much of it stems directly or indirectly from the Clippers trade. Now if we look at the first deal involving Paul George again, there's another trickle down effect on the Pacers' route to these Finals, and they also having 10 players who have played in 14 of 16 games and 135+ minutes each.

Although it certainly felt like they should've gotten even more from OKC, both young players thrived with actual freedom to operate away from there. Oladipo immediately won the Most Improved Player award as a 25 year old in his fifth season and made the All-Star team in both of his first two seasons in Indiana before unfortunately suffering a career-altering quad injury halfway through the second. A year later, Sabonis stepped into a larger role and made two straight All-Star appearances of his own. With Oladipo no longer the same player and approaching free agency, the Pacers made a brilliant trade that started another sequence of moves.

January 13th, 2021: After only playing 19 games in the '19-20 season after the injury, Oladipo was traded after 9 games of the following year that was delayed by COVID as the Pacers managed to sneak their way into the Rockets-Nets trade for James Harden.

As I wrote at the time, I really don't understand why Houston didn't just take Jarrett Allen and Caris LeVert, but Indiana did a great job of flipping an expiring contract for the younger wing and a 2nd (plus an additional 2nd after the medicals). I believe the terms of the 2nd that the Rockets sent out were also amended because the Pacers wound up with the #32 pick in 2023 as a result, which will come into play later.

February 6th, 2022: Just over a year after acquiring LeVert, he is then moved for an injured Ricky Rubio on an expiring contract in order to move way up to the top of the 2nd round in the upcoming draft and add a lottery-protected 1st and a future 2nd.

I liked the deal for both sides, and it did turn out to be a win-win, with an edge to Indiana. The swap of 2nd rounders ended up being the #56 pick for #31, which they used on key starter Andrew Nembhard. Cleveland didn't end up making the playoffs that year, so the 1st rounder rolled over to become #26 the next year as they took a big jump. That pick was used on Ben Sheppard, another playoff rotation member.

February 8th, 2022: Two days later, the NBA world was shocked again by a Pacers trade involving Sabonis, this time getting a player that most thought was untouchable in Tyrese Haliburton.

The star point guard was only in his second year, but everyone could see the upside immediately, hence him finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. Sabonis has been good for Sacramento, but Haliburton has now made back to back All-NBA teams while leading Indiana to the Eastern Conference Finals both years, with of course a win this time around. And while Buddy Hield's contract was viewed as a negative value, he even became a valuable shooter next to Haliburton and often started.

July 1st, 2022: The roster reshuffle continued with incumbent starting guard Malcolm Brogdon sent out for a return that mainly featured an upcoming 1st rounder, salary relief, and a former #14 pick who didn't play much in Boston, Aaron Nesmith. Known more for the 3 then D part of a 3+D wing, Nesmith not only has shot 40.2% from deep on 4.4 threes per game in his Pacers career, but he's developed into a versatile defender and key piece of their runs. 

June 21st and July 1st, 2023: The 1st round pick involved there eventually ended up as #29 and got packaged with the #32 pick from the Oladipo trade for a move down to #40 and 2024 1st rounder instead, which comes into play soon. 10 days later, the Pacers traded two other 2nd rounders down the line in '28 and '29 to take a flier on Obi Toppin in somewhat of a salary dump. I think the Knicks regret that after what Toppin did in these ECF against them.

January 17th, 2024: The final move that made Indiana a contender: trading for Pascal Siakam. After using cap space to take a shot on Bruce Brown with a balloon contract that could easily be traded, he became the main salary in a package that included their own 1st in the middle of the round, the extra 1st mentioned above at the end of the round, and one future 1st with a top-4 protection for a proven winner at the power forward spot.

It was a bit of a risk since Siakam was due to hit free agency, but with him sharing the same agent as Nembhard, I think it was well understood that a max contract would keep him there. Then they went on their surprising run to the Conference Finals, and Siakam did in fact stay on a max that only spanned four years but was still higher, $188,950,272, than what he could get elsewhere.

To recap, Indiana traded George for Sabonis and Oladipo, and Sabonis became Haliburton. Oladpio led to LeVert and a high 2nd, and LeVert led to Nembhard and Sheppard. That 2nd was moved with a 1st from the Brogdon trade that also netted Nesmith, and the resulting 1st was packaged again as part of the Siakam deal. Combine that with taking on Toppin's moderate salary, doing well with their own picks of Myles Turner (#11 in 2015) and Bennedict Mathurin (#6 in 2022), and a small free agent signing back in 2019 that's exceeded all expectations in TJ McConnell, and you've got the core of these back to back deep runs. Then this season they picked up Thomas Bryant from the Heat through the minimum exception just in exchange for a 2031 2nd round pick swap and salary relief, and he's played a pretty consistent bench role as the 10th man.

And that's how two trades involving Sabonis, one involving George, and another with both of them helped set the stage for the 2025 NBA Finals to various degrees. It's a fascinating matchup that should be entertaining throughout since both teams do a great job of forcing turnovers and getting out in transition while taking care of the ball themselves. I mentioned in my end of the season notes how Indiana and Haliburton finished as strongly as any team once the calendar flipped, going 30-9 when he played, but now they're going against a 68 win juggernaut that set the record for point differential. OKC still has even maintained a great +11.2 net rating this postseason despite, you know, playing 16 games against playoff teams, and I trust their tenacious half-court defense to hold up better than Indiana's. They just have so many strong individual defenders to prevent a weak link from bringing them down, and while I'd love to see the series go at least 6, I'm picking Thunder in 5.