The Harden Trade, Part IV

Clippers receive:

James Harden

$35,680,595

P.J. Tucker

$11,014,500

$11,539,000

Filip Petrusev

$1,119,563

$1,891,857

76ers receive:

Marcus Morris	$17,116,279
Nicolas Batum	$11,710,818

Robert Covington

$11,692,308

Kenyon Martin Jr.

$1,930,681

2026 1st round pick (least favorable of the Clippers, Rockets, or Thunder)

2028 Clippers 1st round pick

Right to swap 2029 1st round picks with the Clippers (top-3 protected)

2024 and 2029 2nd round picks

Cash considerations (reportedly $2 million)

Thunder receive:

Right to swap 2027 1st round picks with the Clippers

Cash considerations (reportedly $1.1 million)

A Woj bomb dropping at 11 pm PST the night before the NFL Trade Deadline was hilarious, even if it took an unusually long 38 minutes to get the players involved reported after the initial news. And the draft assets involved still have yet to have actual details! There was some buzz (I believe I heard it on The Lowe Post) that Los Angeles were shopping an unprotected 1st of theirs for two protected picks to entice Philadelphia. Based on Woj's follow up tweet, it would appear they were successful, and Oklahoma City first comes to mind as a team who has more picks than they can use and might look to consolidate.

The initial takeaway here is that the Clips managed to get this done without giving up Terance Mann, and that the 76ers included Tucker's salary to open up even more cap space for next summer while also waiving Danny Green to create a roster spot for this. I'll dive into it more in the morning when more information is confirmed about the picks, but I wanted to get a first look at the salaries involved (with credit to Keith Smith on Spotrac) posted for comparison.

BREAKING: The Philadelphia 76ers have agreed on a trade to send guard James Harden to the Los Angeles Clippers, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/wAyuJKMfAw

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) October 31, 2023

10/31 update: It in fact was OKC who got involved as a third team, and I updated the final tally above now that we have more details. Only getting a 2027 pick swap in order to send the worst of their 2026 1st rounders (as Derek Bodner reported) isn't as great of a value as I thought they'd get, but they're making a gamble on the upside of the Clippers being on a big decline by then. It is also kind of fitting that they got those picks from the trades of Paul George and Russell Westbrook (with the Rockets pick top-4 protected) and that they're involved in reuniting the latter with Harden yet again after they started their careers as Thunder players.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 7 2023

Some of my observations from last week turned into the kiss of death for the players involved. Even the headliner who continued his strong performance, Joshua Palmer, apparently got banged up and is questionable for this weekend. Hopefully things go more smoothly this time around.

As always, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 7 kicked off on Thursday Night Football with another huge game for Alvin Kamara. The running back saw 14 of the team's 53 targets for a huge 26.42% target share, and he's now up to a wide receiver-like 24.07% share (an astounding 9.75 looks per game) since coming off of the three-game suspension to start the year. Combined with seeing 76.67% of the RB carries (17.25 per game), he's averaging 21.7 points so far in PPR formats. With New Orleans' offensive line so banged up, it often feels like quick dump offs to Kamara are the only thing that Derek Carr can consistently execute.
  
  
  
  
  
• Another 'back who also got off to a late start and now is seeing a somewhat surprising amount of work through the air is Jonathan Taylor. After getting activated off of the PUP list and signing a large extension, he was eased into just 15.15% of the snaps in Week 5. That number went up to 42.31% and then 50% this past week, as you'd expect, with subsequent point totals of 11.5 and 21. What you might not expect is that a decent part of that production is thanks to target shares of 11.54% and 18.18%. Having more of a pocket passer like Garnder Minshew going forward means more check downs than Taylor might have seen with Anthony Richardson, who could just take off on a scramble instead. That is encouraging to see as a supplemental path to points since Zack Moss isn't likely to go away after filling in so admirably early in the season. Moss has played 50% of the snaps in each of the last two weeks while getting the call on 46.67% and 50.00% of the RB carries, and I'd expect things to end up around a 60-40 or 67-33 split in Taylor's favor going forward.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2023

It was nice to see Drake London and Jakobi Meyers have nice games following last week's post, and Zach Evans might even be the Rams' new starting running back now after I gave him a shout, as well.

Now here are some other observations from this past week with the usual citation that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 6 started on TNF with the most frustrating game yet for rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims, who had a season-low snap rate of 23.08% and failed to see a target for the first time in his young career. Journeyman Lil'Jordan Humphrey was cut during the week and still played more snaps than Mims (after being re-signed to the practice squad and elevated for the game) despite the rookie being the team's most explosive playmaker. He's had catches of 60 yards (a touchdown), 53 yards, 48 yards, 38 yards, and 30 yards along with a 99 yard kickoff return TD and punt returns of 45 yards and 25 yards. Despite this, Mims has played only 27.32% of the snaps and run routes on 26.48% of the team's dropbacks, resulting in just a 7.06% target share. Consistently putting Brandon Johnson and sometimes Humphrey out there instead is some criminal coaching by Sean Payton for the 1-5 Broncos, especially after they traded up to get Mims in the 2nd round as the first selection of his tenure. It does feel like only a matter of time before Jerry Jeudy gets traded, so maybe then the rookie will finally be unleashed.
  
  
• The week essentially ended on MNF when Justin Herbert threw an interception under pressure on a ball intended for another rookie WR, Quentin Johnston. I was eagerly anticipating how this offense would look with Austin Ekeler back and the potential for the 1st rounder to get more involved coming out of the bye, but things mostly held to the status quo. In his first game since Week 1, Ekeler played 68.49% of the snaps, got 87.5% of the RB carries (14, after 15 in the opener when he got injured), and saw a 16.22% target share much like the 16.13% mark in his previous game. Meanwhile, Johnston's 47.95% snap rate was similar to his 50.77% before the bye, but his route participation dropped from 70.97% to 47.73% this game. Just a 5.41% target share resulted in two looks, and he's been between 2 and 3 targets in every game so far.
  
  It's looking like Joshua Palmer's role is secure as a result, and his 10 PPR points this week could've been more if not for a couple of nice gains, including a TD, called back by penalty. Starting in Week 3 when Mike Williams tore his ACL, Palmer has seen 7, 8, and 7 targets and averaged 11.8 points. In the two full games as the #2 WR, he's played 92.03% of the snaps and ran routes on 98.67% of the dropbacks to earn a 24.59% target share in this high-powered offense. Last year, Palmer averaged 13.3 points with a 21.66% target share in the 10 games from Weeks 2 through 13 when either Williams or Keenan Allen missed time, and it was 18.07 with a 23.14% target share in the final three of those games when playing with Allen and no Williams for all but 6 snaps. The former could be the baseline for the rest of this season with Johnston off to such a slow start while the latter provides an enticing upside with the same kind of setup going forward.
  
  
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-5 2023

After a couple of weeks with NBA posts due to breaking news, I'm back with some data observations from the last few weeks of the NFL.

In case you missed the first two editions of this, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• Week 5 finished with the "Davante Adams Revenge Game" between the Raiders and Packers, but it was Jakobi Meyers who stole the show with 7 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown to continue a strong start to his Las Vegas career. He missed Week 2 with a concussion, but in the four games he's played, Meyers now is averaging 17.6 PPR points thanks to an impressive 26.28% target share while playing on 89.55% of the snaps and 89.94% of the routes. If you only look at the three games with Jimmy Garoppolo, those numbers rise to 21.7, 32.32%, 87.18%, and 87.61%. That point total should regress some since scoring three touchdowns already probably isn't sustainable, but he has really improved at finding the end zone. After only scoring two total touchdowns in his first three seasons in the NFL, Meyers scored 6 last year, and now he has a huge role on his new team.
  
  
• Also in that game was Christian Watson's first full workload after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury and being eased into Week 4. Although he only scored 11.6 points, he was in on 84.48% of the snaps and 85.29% of the routes while commanding a strong 24.14% target share. Jordan Love's erratic throws were and could be a problem, but he loves to chuck it deep, which is Watson's specialty.
  
  Perhaps more notable than Watson's predictably strong usage was the ripple effect he had on his teammates. Romeo Doubs was still out there for 86.21% of the snaps and 97.06% of the routes but only saw a 13.79% target share after it was 25.58% in the first four games. As some feared, rookie Jayden Reed was down to a 50% snap rate and 58.82% route participation with only a 6.9% target share compared to 60.98%, 69.13%, and 20.16% coming into the week. Interestingly, rookie tight end Luke Musgrave tied Watson for the team-lead with 7 targets to get up to a 17.74% target share in his four healthy games. After coach Matt LeFleur was seen yelling at him over some mistake on the opening series, Musgrave was seemingly benched for a couple of drives before racking up check downs in only 68.97% of the snaps and 67.65% of the routes. Overall in those four full games, he has a solid 79.76% snap rate while running routes on 79.43% of the dropbacks, though.

  Packers Air Yards on MNF:
  
  Christian Watson: 180
  Jayden Reed: 28
  Romeo Doubs: 18
  Dontayvion Wicks: 10
  Luke Musgrave: 9
  Josiah Deguara: 4
  Tucker Kraft: 0
  Patrick Taylor: -3
  AJ Dillon: -5

  — Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 10, 2023

The Other Shoe Drops for Portland: Jrue Holiday to Boston

Celtics receive:

Jrue Holiday

$36,861,707

$39,403,893

Trail Blazers receive:

Malcolm Brogdon

$22,500,000

$22,500,000

Robert Williams III

$11,571,429

$12,428,571

$13,285,713

2024 Warriors 1st round pick (protected 1-4 in '24, 1 in '25, then unprotected)

2029 Celtics 1st round pick

The Celtics got their Marcus Smart replacement. After originally intending to send Brogdon to the Clippers in their trade for Kristaps Porzingis before it became Smart to the Grizzlies, it's now Brogdon to the Trail Blazers along with Williams and one of the picks they got from Memphis in that trade. The net result for them this summer is replacing Smart and Williams with Holiday and Porzingis while losing Brogdon, shedding Danilo Gallinari's salary, and getting the pick that eventually became Jordan Walsh and four future 2nd rounders.

That's a high variance gamble with Boston getting more top-end talent but also older with less depth. The 33 year old Holiday is a 5-time All-Defensive guard who can provide more offense than the 29 year old former Defensive Player of the Year, Smart, and 28 year old Porzingis is of course a much more renowned scorer than the 26 year old (later this month) Williams. While there will likely be some drop off defensively overall, Time Lord was limited to just 35 games for the C's last season, and his knee issues might have contributed to this move. The problem is that Porzingis has a long injury history himself, and now they'll only have 37 year old Al Horford as the other proven big. Luke Kornet can be an innings eater in the regular season when one sits out, but I wouldn't be surprised if another move adds some help here by the trade deadline.

Looking at the Pieces Involved in Lillard's Trade to the...Bucks?!

Bucks receive:

Damian Lillard

$45,640,084

$48,787,676

$58,545,211

$63,228,828

Trail Blazers receive:

Jrue Holiday

$36,861,707

$39,403,893

Deandre Ayton

$32,459,438

$34,005,126

$35,550,814

Toumani Camara

$1,119,563

$1,891,857

$2,221,677

$2,406,205

2029 Bucks 1st round pick

Right to swap 1st round picks with Bucks in 2028 and 2030

Suns receive:

Jusuf Nurkic

$16,875,000

$18,125,000

$19,375,000

Grayson Allen

$8,500,000

Nassir Little

$6,250,000

$6,750,000

$7,250,000

$7,750,000

Keon Johnson

$2,808,720

$4,474,291

At long last, the NBA's last biggest soap opera came to a conclusion yesterday when Woj broke the news that the Portland Blazers finally found a suitable trade partner for franchise legend, Damian Lillard. Despite his agent's public comments about only being happy with landing in Miami, the Milwaukee Bucks stepped up out of nowhere with a fair offer that somewhat surprisingly included the Phoenix Suns getting involved. Based on the reporting, it's seemed for a while like GM Joe Cronin didn't really negotiate in good faith with the Heat, and you can argue each way about what each side "owed" each other out of loyalty over the years. In the end, it is the Blazers brass' job to do what's best for the team going forward, but it's debatable whether acting this way with the team that was most motivated to make the deal was the best way to do that. Shams even wrote this morning that they asked for Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, which makes no sense for the rebuild that's about to start in Portland.

The final return is not bad at all, with a true judgment depending on what they are able to flip Holiday for since the 33 year old All-Star is surely to end up on a contender next. The long-rumored offer from Miami was based around three or four 1st round picks (by gaining one from sending Tyler Herro elsewhere), 2022 1st round pick Nikola Jovic, and expiring contracts, so that's what the end result will be compared to. What they have for sure is Ayton, and your view of the 25 year old former #1 overall pick will determine how well you think the Blazers did. The $102 million remaining on his 25% max contract is certainly not cheap, but getting off of 29 year old Nurkic's bloated contract is a plus. Ayton is of course immensely talented and now provides a high ceiling option in the front court to go along with their exciting young guards Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons. Getting Camara thrown in after he looked like a steal at Summer League as the 52nd pick this past June was a nice plus, and the 23 year old joins Matisse Thybulle, Kris Murray, and Rayan Rupert as interesting options on the wing.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2023

I say it every year, but I feel like Week 2 in the NFL can be the most unpredictable. We're dealing with literally the smallest of sample sizes, teams can go from playing on the road to at home, and coaches make big adjustments to get a guy going after being underutilized in the opener like with D'Andre Swift, Christian Kirk, and Drake London. I'm not going to focus on big spikes like that this week and will instead save that for the future to see if it's a one game change or not, though.

Like last week (and how all weeks will be), snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• The week started on TNF with another high-volume TJ Hockenson game, continuing a trend ever since he was traded to Minnesota last year. After getting 6.14 looks per game for a strong 17.84% target share the first seven games in Detroit, that rose to an outrageous 9.44 and 23.42% in 9 full regular season games with his new team. The game not included in this sample is Week 18 when the Vikings pulled the starters ahead of their playoff game...in which he saw 11 of 39 targets (28.21%). That was bound to regress, especially with 1st rounder Jordan Addison providing tougher competition than the departed Adam Thielen, and Hockenson is at 19.54% through two games this season. However, he's averaging 7.5 catches after 6.36 in the 11 total games last season (so counting the 1 catch Week 18 game and 10 catch playoff game for a larger sample), and his 17-game pace would result in 111 catches. Incredibly, Hockenson STILL wouldn't hit 1,000 yards based on his wildly low 8.81 yards per catch in those games, and he's only averaging 6.57 yards per target to boot. 
  
  
• On the other end of the spectrum to Hock's 7.66 aDOT with the Vikings last year and only 4.75 so far this season, there's Kyle Pitts' utilization and sad subsequent production. The Falcons tight end had a huge 13.7 aDOT last year with only 62% of those passes deemed catchable, and so far this season those numbers are 13.92 and 58%. Pitts can run like a wide receiver, but these long passes just aren't working for Atlanta. If there's a bright side, it's that his usage has held steady in the first two weeks. Although he's only been in on 61.54% and 69.51% of the snaps (66.42% overall), running a route on 90.91% and 92.11% of the dropbacks (91.67% combined) has resulted in 16.67% and 17.24% target shares (17.02% in total). Getting these looks should result in better days ahead for the talented TE.