It was a rough end to last week for me, and if I hadn't ended up with the Ravens -10.5 after writing last week's post, it would've been even worse. This week is off to a better start after the first of many home 'dogs won outright, though, and it'll be interesting to see how all of these road favorites fare.
This week: 1-0
Last week: 7-8
Season total: 89-87
Road Favorites
Colts -3.5 at Jaguars
Hey maybe Cody Kessler taking over at quarterback will spark this underachieving Jacksonville squad! Or maybe it's just a last ditch desperation move after already firing their offensive coordinator. Either way, Andrew Luck and Indy should continue to roll after a slight hiccup resulted in last week's win being closer than expected.
Panthers -3.5 at Buccaneers
One of these weeks Carolina will end their skid, and Jameis Winston might be due for a turnover or two after such a clean game last week. Tampa's defense plays much better at home than on the road (hard to do worse after all), but it's still not an intimidating obstacle in the way of Christian McCaffrey's hot streak.
Ravens -1.5 at Falcons
For what it's worth, this isn't a favorite anymore in Vegas as the line has swung towards the home team, and I actually thought Atlanta should've been favored at home from the start. Then I saw Rich Hribar's note about Baltimore averaging a league-low 4.7 yards per play compared to Atlanta's 6.3, which ranks 30th. Maybe Lamar Jackson won't have to match as many points as initially thought in his first road start.
Broncos -3.5 at Bengals
Another Hribar note is that Cincinnati has allowed opponents to score on 50.9% of their possessions, the worst in the league. Jeff Driskel had some exciting moments in relief of Andy Dalton, but now that Denver's resurgent defense has had a week to prepare for the fact that it'll be him at quarterback, I'm not too worried here.
Chiefs -15.5 at Raiders
Everyone knows how good Andy Reid is coming out of a bye by now, right?
Road Underdogs
Bills +5.5 at Dolphins
Let's hope that my first time picking Buffalo all season doesn't come back to haunt me, but this is too large of a spread between two mediocre division rivals. I'm expecting some ugly football, so give me the points.
Jets +9.5 at Titans
I really don't like with any AFC East team not named the Patriots, but again, this is too many points to lay with an inconsistent team. I have little doubt that Tennessee is the superior team, but their defense was shockingly disappointing last week after they had an early 10-0 lead.
Vikings +6.5 at Patriots
Per Hribar, Minnesota's opponents have scored a touchdown on just 16.1% of their drives, the lowest rate in the league, so I don't see New England them pulling away in this one. I hate picking against them at home, but the best game of the weekend should be a close contest.
Home Underdogs
Giants +4.5 versus Bears
I've gone back and forth on this one because it's another game that Chicago's defense could win by themselves like I said they would last week, but asking them to actually do that again is a tall order. Backup quarterbacks sometimes struggle in the following game after catching defenses by surprise in their first action, so I'll take the points against Chase Daniel this time.
Lions +9.5 versus Rams
LA keeps getting these large spreads on the road, and it's just too hard for me to trust their defense, even with Aqib Talib coming back from IR. I don't love this pick, but I'm basically counting on Snacks Harrison and this revamped run defense slowing down Todd Gurley enough to stay competitive.
Home Favorites
Texans -4.5 versus Browns
Since Week 4, only 16.7% of drives against Houston have resulted in touchdowns, the second best mark in the league, according to Hribar. Taking the points with this new Cleveland team was tempting, but facing this defense on the road is a tough task. It's hard to believe that Houston will win nine straight after that 0-3 start, yet here we are.
Packers -14.5 versus Cardinals
One more Hribar stat on defenses: Green Bay has allowed a touchdown on just 14% of opponents' drives at home this year, the best in the league. This line still seems inflated considering the state of things in what is likely Mike McCarthey's last year, but there's no way I'm taking Josh Rosen on the road against Aaron Rodgers.
Seahawks -10.5 versus 49ers
San Francisco played Seattle tough last year, but I don't see Nick Mullens being the quarterback to finally breakthrough against them in this difficult road environment. And given their lack of a consistent pass rush, we'll probably see Russell Wilson doing Russell Wilson things a lot.
Steelers -3.5 versus Chargers
Last week was the typical Pittsburgh letdown out of nowhere that seems to happen once a year on the road, so we'll see if they have their usual bounce back in a home prime time game. Melvin Gordon being out for a couple weeks certainly doesn't help LA either, and the Steelers defense should provide just a bit more resistance than the Cardinals did last week.
Eagles -6.5 versus Redskins
I was tempted to take the points against Philly's banged up secondary again, but I'm not sure Colt McCoy will really make them pay on the road. Add in the distraction of Washington claiming Reuben Foster on waivers, and I can't take the inferior team here.
Sunday, December 2, 2018
Saturday, November 24, 2018
2018 NFL Week 12 Picks Part 2
I'd complain about Atlanta shooting themselves in the foot with all the fumbles in the red zone to miss covering by half a point, but I also got the Dallas pick right with the help of a missed extra point (after a Chiefs missed PAT resulted in a blown cover on MNF). So overall a 2-1 Thanksgiving day wasn't too shabby.
This week: 2-1
Last week: 6-7
Season total: 84-80
Road Favorites
Patriots -9.5 at Jets
Although New England has struggled on the road, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel should be healthier after their bye to provide a boost. And when we last saw New York, both their defense and Josh McCown were complete letdowns, so it's hard to see them staying competitive despite facing another division rival.
Jaguars -3.5 at Bills
Speaking of that New York-Buffalo game, it's still shocking that the Bills put up 41 points after combining for just 33 points in their previous four games combined, especially with Matt Barkley starting after just signing a couple weeks prior. That's not going to happen again with raw rookie Josh Allen returning this week against the tough Jacksonville defense.
Steelers -3.5 at Broncos
I'm almost wary of this line being surprisingly low, but Pittsburgh showed last week how hard it is to keep their offense down for a whole game. You need to be able to create explosive plays yourself, and I still don't think Denver can do that.
This week: 2-1
Last week: 6-7
Season total: 84-80
Road Favorites
Patriots -9.5 at Jets
Although New England has struggled on the road, Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel should be healthier after their bye to provide a boost. And when we last saw New York, both their defense and Josh McCown were complete letdowns, so it's hard to see them staying competitive despite facing another division rival.
Jaguars -3.5 at Bills
Speaking of that New York-Buffalo game, it's still shocking that the Bills put up 41 points after combining for just 33 points in their previous four games combined, especially with Matt Barkley starting after just signing a couple weeks prior. That's not going to happen again with raw rookie Josh Allen returning this week against the tough Jacksonville defense.
Steelers -3.5 at Broncos
I'm almost wary of this line being surprisingly low, but Pittsburgh showed last week how hard it is to keep their offense down for a whole game. You need to be able to create explosive plays yourself, and I still don't think Denver can do that.
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| T.J. Watt and this pass rush has helped shut down big plays of late. |
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
2018 NFL Week 12 Picks Part 1
Happy Thanksgiving! With the short week before a fun day of football, here's a short post with my picks for the three turkey day games.
Bears -4.5 at Lions
Having to rely on career backup Chase Daniel gives me some pause, but I just have a hard time seeing Detroit scoring much on the league's best defense, especially with Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones injured. Kenny Golladay can do a lot of amazing things on the field, but stopping Chicago's defense from winning this by themselves may not be one of them.
Cowboys -7.5 versus Redskins
Dallas has been remained stronger than expected on defense, especially at home, and Washington was already averaging the fewest points per game on the road even before that terrible Alex Smith injury. Rich Hribar also points out that the Redskins' run defense that had improved to start the year is now resorting back to their old ways from recent years, which obviously spells good news for Zeke Elliott. Colt McCoy may surprise them a bit at first, but in the end this shouldn't be a close one.
Falcons +13.5 at Saints
This might not be all that close either with the way New Orleans has been shredding teams, but two touchdowns in a divisional rematch of a game that went to overtime earlier this year is too much. Drew Brees will be without Terron Armstead, who has been the best tackle in the league according to Pro Football Focus, so maybe Atlanta's disappointing pass rush can get him out of rhythm a bit. Or at least, enough for their own, normally explosive offense, to keep things interesting.
Last week: 6-7
Season total: 82-79
Bears -4.5 at Lions
Having to rely on career backup Chase Daniel gives me some pause, but I just have a hard time seeing Detroit scoring much on the league's best defense, especially with Kerryon Johnson and Marvin Jones injured. Kenny Golladay can do a lot of amazing things on the field, but stopping Chicago's defense from winning this by themselves may not be one of them.
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| I'm guessing we'll see a lot of Elliott's "eating" celebration before Thanksgiving dinner. |
Dallas has been remained stronger than expected on defense, especially at home, and Washington was already averaging the fewest points per game on the road even before that terrible Alex Smith injury. Rich Hribar also points out that the Redskins' run defense that had improved to start the year is now resorting back to their old ways from recent years, which obviously spells good news for Zeke Elliott. Colt McCoy may surprise them a bit at first, but in the end this shouldn't be a close one.
Falcons +13.5 at Saints
This might not be all that close either with the way New Orleans has been shredding teams, but two touchdowns in a divisional rematch of a game that went to overtime earlier this year is too much. Drew Brees will be without Terron Armstead, who has been the best tackle in the league according to Pro Football Focus, so maybe Atlanta's disappointing pass rush can get him out of rhythm a bit. Or at least, enough for their own, normally explosive offense, to keep things interesting.
Last week: 6-7
Season total: 82-79
Saturday, November 17, 2018
2018 NFL Week 11 Picks
Things swung back in a big way last week with favorites only covering in 5 of 14 games in Week 10, but fortunately, I was on the right side of most of those. Since starting to be more deliberate with how many home and road favorites I was taking, I've gone 38-17 the last four weeks to put me in position to at least have a chance in my picks pool, so let's hope I don't screw things up now.
Last week: 10-4
Season total: 76-72
Road Favorites:
Texans -2.5 at Redskins
Right off the bat, it's a pick I'm not exactly confident in since Houston doesn't feel like a team that would win seven straight after starting 0-3. Washington's 6-3 feels like smoke and mirrors, though, and the incredible fact that there hasn't been a single lead change in any of their games feels like summary of Alex Smith as a quarterback. He won't lose the game for you, but he probably isn't going to lead comeback, either. Considering the state of his offensive line against this defensive front, that may be a problem.
Panthers -3.5 at Lions
Carolina ran into a buzzsaw in Pittsburgh on a short week, but they should bounce back on the road against a struggling Detroit side. With Golden Tate already traded and Marvin Jones now out this week, it'll be tough for the Lions to match the points that their struggling defense will surely give up to Cam Newtown and Christian McCaffrey, who suddenly has seven touchdowns in his last three games after only one in his first six.
Last week: 10-4
Season total: 76-72
Road Favorites:
Texans -2.5 at Redskins
Right off the bat, it's a pick I'm not exactly confident in since Houston doesn't feel like a team that would win seven straight after starting 0-3. Washington's 6-3 feels like smoke and mirrors, though, and the incredible fact that there hasn't been a single lead change in any of their games feels like summary of Alex Smith as a quarterback. He won't lose the game for you, but he probably isn't going to lead comeback, either. Considering the state of his offensive line against this defensive front, that may be a problem.
Panthers -3.5 at Lions
Carolina ran into a buzzsaw in Pittsburgh on a short week, but they should bounce back on the road against a struggling Detroit side. With Golden Tate already traded and Marvin Jones now out this week, it'll be tough for the Lions to match the points that their struggling defense will surely give up to Cam Newtown and Christian McCaffrey, who suddenly has seven touchdowns in his last three games after only one in his first six.
Saturday, November 10, 2018
2018 NFL Week 10 Picks
Due to some personal matters and the Santa Cruz Warriors season starting, this will be an abridged version of my picks. Last week was another successful week at 9-4, and I would have actually gotten to .500 on the season had I not chickened out with my Patriots pick.
Road Favorites
Saints -4.5 at Bengals
New Orleans made their case that they're the best team in the league last week, and while I'm not ready to declare that just yet, getting this nice road win would go a long way. I don't fully trust them away from the Superdome, but I can't take Cincinnati without their best player, A.J. Green.
Falcons -4.5 at Browns
It's another dome team on the road, and I'm much more comfortable with this one considering the opponent. Gregg Williams' beaten down defense will have a tough time slowing down this surging Atlanta attack.
Chargers -9.5 at Raiders
This is a lot of points in a divisional road game, but Oakland has seemingly packed it in for this first year of the second Jon Gruden regime. Hopefully LA replacing Caleb Sturgis at kicker will make their games less stressful since they're looking like one of the best teams in the league.
Road Underdogs
Cardinals +16.5 at Chiefs
I already hate this pick, but it's just so many points against an Arizona team that might have signs of life with new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. I like Kansas City to have a big lead early (the -10 in the first half makes sense) but can already picture the garbage time touchdown.
Jaguars +3.5 at Colts
Both teams are coming off of a bye, and an interesting nugget from Fabian Sommer is that home teams after the off week are 67-82-2 against the spread since 2010. In what should be a tough divsional game, I'm taking the points with Jacksonville in what's seemingly a make or break game for their season.
Seahawks +10.5 at Rams
While I think LA will bounce back and win at home, I learned my lesson about laying too many points in this matchup when these teams first met.
Giants +3.5 at 49ers
I'm trying to stay levelheaded with the Mullens Mania since his impressive debut was against the Raiders, so while I'd lean towards San Francisco winning at home, I don't feel comfortable laying more than a field goal with them yet. After all, Odell Beckham Jr. could take over this game by himself against their inconsistent pass defense.
Home Underdogs
Titans +7.5 versus Patriots
Tennessee is too good of a team to be getting this many points at home, even if it is against New England, who haven't been as surgical on the road. With former Patriot Dion Lewis taking control of the backfield, this offense should be able to keep pace to at least cover.
Home Favorites
Steelers -3.5 versus Panthers
Turns out I didn't need to be as worried as I was.
Jets -7.5 versus Bills
Josh McCown filling in for an injured Sam Darnold might actually help New York given the rookie's recent struggles. In any case, you know I'm basically picking against Buffalo every week, especially on the road.
Bears -6.5 versus Lions
This almost feels too easy with how these teams are playing because Chicago's defense at home should give Detroit the same kind of trouble as Minnesota last week. Hopefully Allen Robinson can get back involved in the offense now that he seems to be back healthy.
Buccaneers -2.5 versus Redskins
I've made a season of picking against Tampa's defense, but this might be an unstoppable force versus an immovable object with Washington missing four offensive lineman. With the Washington corners getting burned most weeks, this should be a bounce back spot for Mike Evans.
Packers -9.5 versus Dolphins
Green Bay collapsed in the fourth quarter in Foxborough but are now back at home against a much less threatening AFC East team. I'll lay however many points it takes to have Aaron Rodgers against Brock Osweiler.
Eagles -6.5 versus Cowboys
I know I quoted that stat about home teams coming off a bye, but it doesn't mean that all three of Cincy, Indy, and Philly will fall short. In fact, with the Eagles getting healthier, I think this is when they start to pull away from the rest of the NFC (L)East.
Road Favorites
Saints -4.5 at Bengals
New Orleans made their case that they're the best team in the league last week, and while I'm not ready to declare that just yet, getting this nice road win would go a long way. I don't fully trust them away from the Superdome, but I can't take Cincinnati without their best player, A.J. Green.
Falcons -4.5 at Browns
It's another dome team on the road, and I'm much more comfortable with this one considering the opponent. Gregg Williams' beaten down defense will have a tough time slowing down this surging Atlanta attack.
Chargers -9.5 at Raiders
This is a lot of points in a divisional road game, but Oakland has seemingly packed it in for this first year of the second Jon Gruden regime. Hopefully LA replacing Caleb Sturgis at kicker will make their games less stressful since they're looking like one of the best teams in the league.
Road Underdogs
Cardinals +16.5 at Chiefs
I already hate this pick, but it's just so many points against an Arizona team that might have signs of life with new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. I like Kansas City to have a big lead early (the -10 in the first half makes sense) but can already picture the garbage time touchdown.
Jaguars +3.5 at Colts
Both teams are coming off of a bye, and an interesting nugget from Fabian Sommer is that home teams after the off week are 67-82-2 against the spread since 2010. In what should be a tough divsional game, I'm taking the points with Jacksonville in what's seemingly a make or break game for their season.
Seahawks +10.5 at Rams
While I think LA will bounce back and win at home, I learned my lesson about laying too many points in this matchup when these teams first met.
Giants +3.5 at 49ers
I'm trying to stay levelheaded with the Mullens Mania since his impressive debut was against the Raiders, so while I'd lean towards San Francisco winning at home, I don't feel comfortable laying more than a field goal with them yet. After all, Odell Beckham Jr. could take over this game by himself against their inconsistent pass defense.
Home Underdogs
Titans +7.5 versus Patriots
Tennessee is too good of a team to be getting this many points at home, even if it is against New England, who haven't been as surgical on the road. With former Patriot Dion Lewis taking control of the backfield, this offense should be able to keep pace to at least cover.
Home Favorites
Steelers -3.5 versus Panthers
Turns out I didn't need to be as worried as I was.
Jets -7.5 versus Bills
Josh McCown filling in for an injured Sam Darnold might actually help New York given the rookie's recent struggles. In any case, you know I'm basically picking against Buffalo every week, especially on the road.
Bears -6.5 versus Lions
This almost feels too easy with how these teams are playing because Chicago's defense at home should give Detroit the same kind of trouble as Minnesota last week. Hopefully Allen Robinson can get back involved in the offense now that he seems to be back healthy.
Buccaneers -2.5 versus Redskins
I've made a season of picking against Tampa's defense, but this might be an unstoppable force versus an immovable object with Washington missing four offensive lineman. With the Washington corners getting burned most weeks, this should be a bounce back spot for Mike Evans.
Packers -9.5 versus Dolphins
Green Bay collapsed in the fourth quarter in Foxborough but are now back at home against a much less threatening AFC East team. I'll lay however many points it takes to have Aaron Rodgers against Brock Osweiler.
Eagles -6.5 versus Cowboys
I know I quoted that stat about home teams coming off a bye, but it doesn't mean that all three of Cincy, Indy, and Philly will fall short. In fact, with the Eagles getting healthier, I think this is when they start to pull away from the rest of the NFC (L)East.
Jimmy Butler to Philadelphia Instant Reaction
76ers get:
Timberwolves get:
This is fascinating stunner that seemingly came from out of nowhere. I will get into more detail once all of the final details come out, but here are my first thoughts:
- It's a solid haul for Minnesota considering their circumstances since Butler's way of handling this didn't give them much leverage. Saric hasn't played as well as last year but is still a great young talent with two years left on his rookie deal while Covington is in the first year of his extension at a fair price.
- Hopefully this roster reconfiguration gets Andrew Wiggins more time at shooting guard and brings out his potential on a more consistent basis.
- Bringing in another ball dominant star will probably be tougher for Markelle Fultz's development, but Philadelphia has to do this trade for an established All-Star, especially if they're confident they can re-sign him this summer.
- Fultz-Redick-Butler-Simmons-Embiid is a tantalizing potential starting five, and if a forward like Wilson Chandler can give them good minutes off the bench come playoff time, they'll be in good shape. A sleeper to keep an eye out for is Jonah Bolden as a versatile big.
Saturday, November 3, 2018
2018 NFL Week 9 Picks
A 9-5 showing was a slight step back from the previous week's 10-4, but it's still a heck of a lot better than some of my previous weeks. And if leads could've been held onto by Cincinnati, Kansas City, or San Francisco (even just on the 2 point conversion!) to cover the spreads, this would be a different conversation. The process feels like it's been pretty good, though, so hopefully it continues during this weekend with six teams on bye as we're somehow already in Week 9.
Road Favorites
Chiefs -8.5 at Browns
It finally happened: Hue Jackson was relieved of his duties after a 3-36-1 stint. And he still had the gall to try and pass off the blame this already about not getting the players he wanted "the first two years" as if he knew exactly which quarterbacks would work out. This, from the man who tried to trade 2nd AND 3rd round picks for A.J. freaking McCarron, who was in the last year of his rookie deal anyway. I'd say this team has nowhere to go but up now, but it's not exactly like they're in much better hands with Gregg Williams. Sorry if we don't take your word on this one, Gregg.
Bears -5.5 at Bills
The CBS Sports line being released before it was on the board in Vegas due to Derek Anderson's injury is fortuitous here, but let's be honest: there's zero percent chance I'd be taking Buffalo in this spot. No matter who is under center, they have no functional passing game, which is just a bit of a problem in the modern NFL. That's especially true against a Chicago defense that still haven't allowed a rushing touchdown.
Road Underdogs
Raiders +3.5 at 49ers
I continued my streak of having the wrong pick in San Francisco games as I underestimated just how little fight Oakland has left in it after losing so many of their best players. This game needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but there's no denying that Nick Mullens was impressive in his NFL debut with his confidence in distributing the ball to the receivers Kyle Shanahan schemes open. Given C.J. Beathard's lack of pocket presence and unwillingness to let it rip at times, things could get interesting as far as who Jimmy Garoppolo's backup will be in the future.
Falcons +1.5 at Redskins
Washington has quietly been on a roll and is at home against a team that doesn't tend to fare too well outdoors, so why am I picking against them? Atlanta's offense is just so much more explosive on offense, and hopefully their beleaguered defense can get just enough stops to pull out a win. It may also be telling that the home team isn't getting the typical field goal advantage, indicating that the Falcons are the better team in a vacuum.
Road Favorites
Chiefs -8.5 at Browns
It finally happened: Hue Jackson was relieved of his duties after a 3-36-1 stint. And he still had the gall to try and pass off the blame this already about not getting the players he wanted "the first two years" as if he knew exactly which quarterbacks would work out. This, from the man who tried to trade 2nd AND 3rd round picks for A.J. freaking McCarron, who was in the last year of his rookie deal anyway. I'd say this team has nowhere to go but up now, but it's not exactly like they're in much better hands with Gregg Williams. Sorry if we don't take your word on this one, Gregg.
— Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) November 2, 2018
Bears -5.5 at Bills
The CBS Sports line being released before it was on the board in Vegas due to Derek Anderson's injury is fortuitous here, but let's be honest: there's zero percent chance I'd be taking Buffalo in this spot. No matter who is under center, they have no functional passing game, which is just a bit of a problem in the modern NFL. That's especially true against a Chicago defense that still haven't allowed a rushing touchdown.
Road Underdogs
Raiders +3.5 at 49ers
I continued my streak of having the wrong pick in San Francisco games as I underestimated just how little fight Oakland has left in it after losing so many of their best players. This game needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but there's no denying that Nick Mullens was impressive in his NFL debut with his confidence in distributing the ball to the receivers Kyle Shanahan schemes open. Given C.J. Beathard's lack of pocket presence and unwillingness to let it rip at times, things could get interesting as far as who Jimmy Garoppolo's backup will be in the future.
Falcons +1.5 at Redskins
Washington has quietly been on a roll and is at home against a team that doesn't tend to fare too well outdoors, so why am I picking against them? Atlanta's offense is just so much more explosive on offense, and hopefully their beleaguered defense can get just enough stops to pull out a win. It may also be telling that the home team isn't getting the typical field goal advantage, indicating that the Falcons are the better team in a vacuum.
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