Wednesday, June 26, 2024

2024 NBA Draft Recap

Happy Draft Day! While I'm constantly updating this tracker for all of the moves being made in the NBA offseason, I wanted to have a separate post just for this event to keep things more organized. In somewhat of a surprise, no players already under contract were traded once things kicked off, so that makes things easier. This will just be a list of what each team did for now since there were a lot of moving around the board. Trade news comes courtesy of tweets from Woj, Shams, and Jake Fischer.

Hawks
#1 Zaccharie Risacher
Traded AJ Griffin for #44...then traded #44 and cash for #43 Nikola Durisic


Wizards
#2 Alexandre Sarr
#14 Carlton "Bub" Carrington
Traded #26 and #51 for #24 Kyshawn George


Rockets
#3 Reed Sheppard
Traded #44 for AJ Griffin


Spurs
#4 Stephon Castle
Traded #8 for a 2031 1st round pick and the right to swap 2030 1st round picks (protected for #1)
Traded #35 for cash and #36 Juan Nunez
#48 Harrison Ingram


Pistons
#5 Ron Holland
Traded #53 for Wendell Moore and #37 Bobi Klintman


Hornets
#6 Tidjane Salaun
#42 KJ Simpson


Trail Blazers
#7 Donovan Clingan
Traded #34 for three 2nd round picks (in 2027, 2029, and 2030)
Traded #40 for #52 and cash...then traded #52 for more cash

7/6 Update: Now that the moratorium is over and the deal is official, the Portland press release is out. Not only was the 52nd pick dealt for just cash as previously reported, but the move down from the 40th pick was also just for financial gain. Alrighty then.

Timberwolves
Traded 2031 1st round pick and a 2030 draft swap (protected for #1) for #8 Rob Dillingham
#27 Terrence Shannon
Traded Wendell Moore and #37 for #53...then traded #53 for #57 and a future 2nd...then traded #57 for cash (per Blake Murphy)

7/6 Update: According to the Minnesota press release reveals that they ended up with a future 2nd round pick and the aforementioned cash considerations as the result of their trade downs.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

2024 NBA Offseason Tracker

Well that was quick. The new CBA now allows teams to negotiate with their own free agents the day after the Finals ends, and now after seemingly a one day grace period for the Boston Celtics to enjoy their well-deserved championship, we have our first deal! That's created this tracker earlier than usual, which makes things easier in a way to include draft week trades, and I'll just include draft pick thoughts in a separate post. 6/26 Update: You can find what every team did during the draft HERE.

As usual with these type of posts, I'll be updating constantly to make this your one-stop shop for all of the deals, with the newest transactions at the top. I'll make note of the date when whoever broke the news tweeted it along with my projections of the salaries based on reported contract details, and "Command F" is definitely helpful to find specific players as the deals pour in. Figures for existing contracts in trades usually come from Keith Smith on Spotrac, and stats are from Basketball Reference, RealGM, or the NBA's advanced stats page. The visual key consists of player options/team options/not fully guaranteed

6/30 Update: The NBA announced that the official salary cap came in slightly lower than projected: $140,588,00 with the luxury tax at $170,814,000, the First Apron $178,132,000, and the Second Apron $188,931,000. With next year's cap projected to be $154,647,000, I've updated max contract figures below based on this. Now back to the deals:


Kings sign McDermott (Shams 10/16)
Doug McDermott$2,087,519

It's unclear what kind of guarantee the veteran shooter received, but given this point of the calendar, I'm guessing that it's not just a camp deal. Perhaps a partial guarantee to provide flexibility for a midseason trade would make sense after Sacramento opened up space with the trade earlier in the week.

10/17 Update: Scotto confirmed my suspicion that McDermott got a partial guarantee that's more than just a typical camp deal with $750,000 locked in.

Sacramento sheds salary on San Antonio (Shams 10/14)

Spurs receive:
Jalen McDaniels$4,741,800
2031 2nd round pick
Cash consideration

Kings receive:
2025 2nd round pick (protected 31-55)

Scotto added the details on the picks as well as cash involved to help cover McDaniels' salary, which reportedly will be waived. After taking him as part of the Vezenkov salary dump, now Sacramento gives themselves a little more breathing room under the luxury tax. San Antonio isn't close to having to worry about that, so they used part of the Room MLE as a trade exception to add yet another future pick.

Magic extend Carter: 3 years, $59 million (Shams 10/7)
Wendell Carter Jr.$11,950,000$10,850,000$18,209,877$19,666,667$21,123,457

WCJ will now always be a part of NBA reporting history as Shams' first scoop since switching to ESPN. Since Carter's previous extension was so cheap, this is the most that he could receive in an extension with the starting salary 140% of the estimated average salary.

10/8 Update: Scotto adds that the last year is a team option.

Pelicans extend Alvarado: 2 years: $9 million (Shams 9/28)
Jose Alvarado$1,988,598$4,500,000$4,500,000

The former undrafted free agent and Two-Way player gets a safe guarantee with the player option to potentially make a lot more if he can stay healthy. This could be structured as $4,326,923 and $4,673,077, but it would make sense to have a flat rate for Alvarado to get a little more right away before opting out of this cheap deal.

Minnesota and New York pull off stunning swap of Kentucky big men (Shams 9/27)

Knicks receive:
Karl-Anthony Towns$49,205,800$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192

Timberwolves receive:
Julius Randle$28,939,680$30,935,520
Donte DiVincenzo$11,445,000$11,990,000$12,535,000
Keita Bates-Diop$2,654,644
2025 Pistons 1st round pick (protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:
TBD draft compensation to absorb salary, including DaQuan Jeffries

I originally started putting in a summary here, but this big of a deal deserved its own post.

Clippers extend Mann: 3 years, $47 million (Shams 9/27)
Terence Mann$11,423,077$15,500,000$15,666,667$16,000,000

Entering the last year of his bargain 2 year, $22 million extension, Mann could've received as much as $51.8 million over this same period, so it seems he's taking the guaranteed offer on the table now again. Marks reports that the first year starts at $15.5 million, so I'm guessing that each year will be relatively flat instead of the standard 8% raises for a $14,506,173/$15,666,667/$16,827,160 structure. And as Bontemps pointed out, Mann is still trade eligible immediately since this wasn't too high of an extension.

76ers extend Embiid: 3 years, $193 million (Shams 9/20)
Joel Embiid$51,415,938$55,224,526$59,539,095$64,302,223$69,065,350

Embiid had a $59,033,114 player option for the '26-'27 season that will be declined and replaced by the first year of this extension that's projected to be for slightly more. That's based on the maximum 10% cap increases the next two years to about $170.1 million and then taking 35% of that as a max player with 10+ years of experience.

Knicks sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/15)
Marcus Morris$2,087,519

Like with Shamet and Okeke, I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed deal to battle for New York's last roster spot. Morris has a more proven track record, though, so I could be wrong with the Knicks just willing to eat a guaranteed salary at final cuts.

Cavs re-sign Okorro: 3 years, $38 $33 million (Woj 9/14)
Isaac Okoro$11,728,395$12,666,667$13,604,938

Being a restricted free agent likely tempered Okoro's market, so keeping this a short deal at the relatively low average value could allow him to hit unrestricted free agency sooner. It looks like Cleveland will be a luxury tax team now barring a trade to shed a little bit of salary.

Update: Chris Fedor adds that it's actually for $33 million with an additional $5 million in incentives. which means that the starting salary will definitely be below what Okoro's $11,828,974 qualifying offer was. The Cavs really used the hammer of restricted free agency here to get a good deal.

Isaac Okoro$10,185,185$11,000,000$11,814,815

Knicks sign Shamet: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 9/14)
Landry Shamet$2,087,519

I'm guessing that this is non-guaranteed as he battles for the last roster spot since New York already has 14 guaranteed deals.

Update: The Knicks officially announced the signing as an Exhibit 9 contract, which is non-guaranteed.

Mavs re-sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/7)
Markieff Morris$2,087,519

The veteran forward's return gives an already deep Dallas roster another front court option and should round out the option. AJ Lawson's non-guaranteed deal could be in danger now to get them down to 15 players by cut day.

Nuggets (finally) extend Murray: 4 years, $208 million (Woj 9/7)
Jamal Murray$36,016,200$46,394,100$50,105,628$53,817,156$57,528,684

I already had a post for this way back on June 27th when Shams reported that the two sides were close, but I'm putting it here again now that's a done deal with the updated numbers. As expected, it's a touch lower than what I originally had since the cap came in slightly lower than projections.

Clippers extend Zubac: 3 years, $58.6 million (Woj 8/30)
Ivica Zubac$11,743,210$18,086,420$19,533,333$20,980,247

After L.A. used a team option to leverage a bargain extension for Zubac last time, this is much more in line with the current center market.

Pacers extend McConnell: 4 years, $45 million (Woj 8/30)
T.J. McConnell$9,300,000$10,044,643$10,848,214$11,651,786$12,455,357

Going four years for a player who is already 32 is a little questionable, but it could've been to help keep the annual salaries lower after McConnell's great last couple of years.

9/3 Update: Marks reports that the third year is only partially guaranteed for $5 million and that the last year is a team option that then becomes only partially guaranteed for $5 million if picked up. 

Warriors extend Curry: 1 year, $62.6 million (Woj 8/29)
Stephen Curry$55,761,216$59,606,817$62,587,158

This 5% raise for just one year was the most that Golden State could offer the franchise icon due to the Over-38 rule. After a lot of the fanbase has complained about them not going all-in to try to contend with Curry still on the roster, this is a show of good trust between the two sides going forward.

Celtics sign Walker: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/28)
Lonnie Walker$2,087,519

We're at the point in the offseason where solid veterans have to settle for non-guaranteed minimums, and these updates might be coming to an end. If Boston decides to go with a full 15 man roster, Walker would be a some nice perimeter depth.

Pelcians sign Green: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/20)
Javonte Green$2,087,519

Green has been an underrated wing that could help fill out New Orleans' bench well, and Andrew Lopez reports that this deal is fully guaranteed.

76ers sign Yabusele: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams that it was close, then Scotto 8/18)
Guerschon Yabusele$2,087,519

The 16th pick in the 2016 draft has been generating buzz since his standout Olympics performance, where he averaged 14 points in 23:19 minutes as the second-leading scorer for France...and had one of the highlights of the tournament in the finals.
It was up in the air if Yabusele would try to make it back to the NBA since he reportedly has a $2.5 million buyout with Real Madrid, and Philadelphia can only contribute $825,000 towards that, per John Hollinger. That means that most of this season's salary will go towards the buyout since Yabusele only lasted two seasons in his first NBA stint to qualify for the salary above, but the 28 year old could increase his future earning potential by filling a hole for this new-look Sixers squad. While I think the "French Draymond" moniker from when he was drafted isn't that accurate, Yabusele can bring some tough defense and more size (6'8", 260 lbs) than their other forward options. He's shot 41% (345 of 841) on threes across all competitions the past three seasons in Europe, and if he can come close to that with the NBA line, he'll have much more staying power this time around.

Jazz sign Mills: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/14)
Patty Mills$2,087,519

As with other veterans of 10+ years, he'll earn $3,303,771 with the subsidized cap hit.

Jazz sign Mykhailiuk: 4 yeras, $15 million (Woj 8/9)
Svi Mykhailiuk$3,488,372$3,662,791$3,837,209$4,011,628

Going this many years for such a low cost (his minimum as a six-year vet would've been about $12.3 million) is a big odd, so I'm fairly confident that Utah gave him a slight bump this year to have control of his future with non-guaranteed future seasons.

8/12 Update: Keith Smith confirms my suspicions with two non-guaranteed years followed by a team option like I had above.

Spurs sign Flynn: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/7)
Malachi Flynn$2,087,519

San Antonio already has 15 players signed, so I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed minimum.

Jazz to renegotiate-and-extend Markkanen: 5 years, $238 million; $220 million in new money (Shams 8/6 Woj 8/7)
Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$39,143,476$42,274,954$45,406,433$48,537,911

Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$43,720,568$47,218,213$50,715,859$54,213,504

This won't be agreed to until tomorrow or later so that Markkanen can ensure that he won't be traded this season since there will be a six-month waiting period once the deal is signed, and the Trade Deadline is February 6th. In the article from Shams, Slater, and Tony Jones, they reported that the "deal is projected to be worth upwards of $200 million over five years." A 30% max contract that another team could offer Markkanen next summer is expected to be for $199,494,630 over four years based on the rising cap, so that would seem to be the floor for his extension. My projection above is based on Utah using $24,131,856 of their cap space to bump up his current $18,044,544 salary to his max for this season, and then spreading the remaining $175,362,774 over the next four years. 

If it does end up being "only" in that $200 million range for total money as the report indicates, that would be a surprising value for the Jazz. Besides the $199.5 million from other teams, they could offer Markkanen as much as $269 million over five years if he hits free agency. A renegotiation-and-extension in this way would mean that he only goes on the books over the next four seasons for somewhere around that $175 million number above, after the $24.13 million raise this year. Being able to use their cap space to provide their star with the security of the massive deal now rather than waiting for free agency seems to have provided a ton of flexibility in negotiations.

8/7 Update: Well me playing around with the potential numbers based on The Athletic's report turned out to be a huge waste of time because Woj now reports that it's $220 million in new money for a total of $238 million, which makes way more sense. That means that after the $24.13 million raise this year, Markkanen will have about $195.87 million left on his extension over the next four seasons, so the Jazz will have his cap hits at a hair under his max over that span. This is obviously more than the offer that I said other teams could give him next year, and he will earn about $12.15 million more over these five years than if he just re-signed on a four-year deal next summer.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

2024 NBA Lottery Reaction & the Result of Traded Picks

This is always one of my favorite posts to write every year because of my well-documented fondness for the NBA Lottery, and the absolute chaos of this year's drawing is a great example why. Is it considered possibly the weakest, most wide-open class since the infamous 2013 draft? Yes. Was it still awesome to see the unexpected Jazz logo at #10 to indicate that two teams made large jumps into the top-4? Also yes.

It's always fun to talk through the implications of the random bounces of ping pong balls, so here are my main reactionary thoughts followed by a breakdown of how each previously traded pick turned out.

  • After ESPN's Elle Duncan pointed out in the buildup that the Atlanta Hawks had never won the #1 pick, their small 3% chance of moving from the #10 pick to the top spot came through. They're the biggest long shot winner in 10 years, when the Cavaliers had a 1.7% chance of moving from 9th to 1st, and it is the second-largest jump in lottery history, behind only the 1993 Magic's rise from the 11 spot despite the low 1.52% odds. Shoot, they're the first ever team from the Play-In Tournament to move up in the lottery!

    Really, this is what the updated format intended when the NBA flattened the odds of the 2019 draft to limit tanking. The Hawks' 3% was obviously low, but it was still higher than some prior wins like the Bulls in '08 (1.7%) or the Cavs in '11 (2.8%) and the aforementioned '14, even though Atlanta finished higher in the standings. Now a new door of possibilities is open for a team that had fallen onto the "treadmill of mediocrity" with three straight years in the Play-In, and it will be fascinating to see how they approach it.

Saturday, April 20, 2024

2024 NBA End of Season Thoughts

The NBA (and NHL) playoffs start today! As usual, I wanted to take a quick look at each matchup through a lens of their records and net, offensive, and defensive ratings, per NBA.com, before making a pick for each series. I also like to point out certain trends for each playoff team with either lineup data or notable hot streaks that I saw while perusing Basketball Reference. Instead of my random tweets like this that quickly get lost, this is a way to highlight something going on with a player and easily be able to look back on it.


#1 Celtics (64-18, +11.7, #1 O, #2 D) vs. #8 Heat (46-36, +1.8, #21 O, #5 D)

Almost all of these blurbs are going to give a reason for optimism on each side of the matchup...but not in this one to start. I think the Celtics are the clear favorites to win the championship, and although they have had some great battles with the Heat over the years, this year's edition will be missing Jimmy Butler (and likely Terry Rozier) due to injury. Boston coasted to the #1 seed by 14 games in the East and finished with a +11.4 raw point differential that was the fifth-best in NBA history. They are elite on both ends of the floor and can play either small or big with the versatility of their stars. Their main starting lineup of Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis had a +11.0 net rating, and subbing in sixth-man Al Horford for Holiday to create a huge lineup had a +16.2 net rating as their third-most used lineup. Any way you slice it, there is a lot to like with this team that I'm picking to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

While I have a hard time thinking that this depleted Miami team can take more than one game off of Boston (and that's only out of respect for their history and what Erik Spoelstra can come up with), I do want to give a shoutout to Nikola Jovic, who's carved out a role after bouncing in and out of the rotation. Once he entered the starting lineup for good over his final 26 games, he only averaged 22.2 minutes but put up 9.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists with 47.6%/39%/81.5% shooting. That's pretty solid on a per-minute basis for a 20 year old in his second year, and overall on the season, his 39.9% shooting and 21.3% defensive rebounding rate as a 6'10" player can compliment Bam Adebayo nicely. It's just more of something to watch for next year, after this likely short series.

Celtics in 5


#2 Knicks (50-32, +4.9, #7 O, #9 D) vs. #7 76ers (47-35, +3.1, T-#13 O, #11 D)

Pretty much everyone will agree that this is about as dangerous of a 7-seed as you'll see since they only ended up in the Play-In due to injuries. They were 29-7 with a +12.4 net rating when both Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey play, after all. The question as always this time of year is how healthy will Embiid be? After mostly keeping their powder dry on the trade front, there isn't a ton of reliable support around the two stars if either should falter.

I loved that New York went all out on the last day of the season to secure the 2nd seed, including keeping starters in for overtime even after knowing the other results. There is the usual issue of Tom Thibodeau playing his guys too many minutes, though, and whether that will catch up to them. Josh Hart played 40+ minutes 22 times since the end of January. Miles McBride played 43+ minutes 10 times in a 16 game span! Aside from that worry, this team is looking good with home court advantage until a potential matchup with Boston and just fits so well together, as evidenced by going 20-3 with OG Anunoby. 

Knicks in 6

Friday, January 12, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 17-18 2023

And just like that, the 2023-24 NFL regular season is done. I'm going to wrap up this series with just a few observations that cover both the fantasy season (with most finals in Week 17) and overall season. As I've written throughout, snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

  • CeeDee Lamb won a lot of fantasy championships with his monstrous 40.2 points from 13 catches for 227 yards and touchdown, and the crazy thing is that it could've been an even bigger night if he hadn't lost a fumble reaching for the pylon. As if that's not enough, he had another 13 catch performance in the regular season finale for 35.5 points. Overall on the season, he finished with the most total PPR points among wide receivers and an average of 23.72 while playing 83.70% of the Cowboys' snaps, running a route on 91.42% of the dropbacks, and seeing 29.92% of the targets.

    Those are absolutely alpha receiver numbers, and they're even better when you isolate them from Week 6 on, which is when Lamb had a conversation with Mike McCarthy about how he's being used following their embarrassing loss to the 49ers. He proceeded to go on an insane 12 game stretch averaging 27.69 points with 87.84%, 92.49%, and 32.88% rates. It helped that McCarthy reverted the offense back to their pass-heavy ways instead of forcing a run-heavy game plan, and practically running the offense through Lamb resulted in them finishing the season 9-3. 108 catches for 1,391 yards and 11 TDs with 11 carries for another 92 yards and 2 scores would make for an awesome season let alone 12 game stretch, so I can't wait to see what he does for an encore next season.

Saturday, December 30, 2023

2023-24 NBA Trade Tracker

Well that was unexpected! The NBA Trade Deadline isn't until February 8th, but the Raptors and Knicks kicked off trade season early to prompt the start of my usual transaction tracker. This will be a one stop shop for every in-season NBA trade, when it went down, who first reported it (as far as I know), and the contracts/picks involved to look back on like last season's. The format will be like the offseason tracker where I add each new deal to the top to make it easy to see any updates, and the color code as usual is player option, team option, and not fully guaranteed along with estimates. Otherwise, these cap numbers are courtesy of Keith Smith at Spotrac.com.

2/9 update: Now that yesterday's deadline is firmly in the rearview, I went back and added more details that have emerged for each deal. It probably makes the most sense to start with trades at the bottom and work up chronologically, but as always, Command + F is a friend to find specific players. To make things easier, here is a summary of what each team did over the past six weeks, listed in order of championship odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Celtics +265
Traded for: Xavier Tillman, Jaden Springer, and one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)
Traded away: Lamar Stevens, Dalano Banton, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Nuggets +425
Traded for: Cash considerations
Traded away: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Clippers +550
Traded for: Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)
Traded away: Cash considerations

Bucks +600
Traded for: Patrick Beverley and the draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)
Traded away: Cam Payne, Robin Lopez, a 2nd round pick, and cash considerations

Suns +1,200
Traded for: Royce O'Neale and David Roddy
Traded away: Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, Chimezie Metu, Jordan Goodwin, three 2nd round picks, and one 1st round draft swap that was already Horcruxed.

76ers +1,800
Traded for: Buddy Hield, Cam Payne, and three 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected)
Traded away: Marcus Morris, Furkan Korkmaz, Danuel House, Patrick Beverley, Jaden Springer, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations

Knicks +2,000
Traded for: OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, and Precious Achiuwa
Traded away: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Ryan Arcidiacono, three 2nd round picks, and cash considerations
Waived: DaQuan Jeffries

Timberwolves +2,000
Traded for:
Traded away:

Thunder +2,200
Traded for: Monte Morris
Traded away: Shake Milton, Troy Brown, and a 2nd round pick

Lakers +2,800
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Cavaliers +3,500
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Heat +3,500
Traded for: Terry Rozier
Traded away: Kyle Lowry and a 1st round pick

Mavericks +4,000
Traded for: PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, and two 2nd round picks
Traded away: Grant Williams, Richaun Holmes, Seth Curry, one 1st round pick, and one 1st round pick swap

Kings +5,000
Traded for: Robin Lopez and cash considerations
Traded away: Draft rights to Dimitrios Agravanis (#59 pick in 2015)
Waived: Robin Lopez

Pelicans +6,000
Traded for: Cash considerations
Traded away: Kira Lewis and one 2nd round pick

Warriors +7,000
Traded for: one 2nd round pick
Traded away: Cory Joseph, one 2nd round pick (top-55 protected), and cash consideration

Pacers +11,000
Traded for: Pascal Siakam, Doug McDermott, Furkan Korkmaz, Cory Joseph, four 2nd round picks (though one is top-55 protected), and cash considerations
Traded away: Bruce Brown, Buddy Hield, Jordan Nwora, three 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick
Waived: James Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, and Cory Joseph

Magic +25,000
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Hawks +40,000
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Jazz +60,000
Traded for: Otto Porter Jr, Kira Lewis, Kevin Knox, one 1st round pick, one 2nd round pick, and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)
Traded away: Simone Fontecchio, Kelly Olynyk, and Ochai Agbaji
Waived: Kevin Knox

Bulls +60,000
Traded for: N/A
Traded away: N/A

Rockets +60,000
Traded for: Steven Adams
Traded away: Victor Oladipo and three 2nd round picks

Nets +100,000
Traded for: Dennis Sschroder, Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin, Thaddeus Young, and three 2nd round picks
Traded away: Royce O'Neale and Spencer Dinwiddie
Waived: Harry Giles, Jordan Goodwin, and Thaddeus Young

Raptors +100,000
Traded for: RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji, Jordan Nwora, Spencer Dinwiddie, two 1st round picks, and one 2nd round pick
Traded away: Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Dennis Schroder, Precious Achiuwa, Otto Porter Jr, Thaddeus Young, and Malachi Flynn
Waived: Spencer Dinwiddie and Christian Koloko

Grizzlies +100,000
Traded for: Yuta Watanabe, Lamar Stevens, Chimezie Metu, Victor Oladipo, one 1st round pick swap (that was already Horcruxed), and five 2nd round picks
Traded away: Xavier Tillman, David Roddy, Steven Adams
Waived: Chimezie Metu and Victor Oladipo

Trail Blazers +100,000
Traded for: Dalano Banton and cash considerations
Traded away: one "2nd round pick" (top-55 protected)

Spurs +100,000
Traded for: Marcus Morris (likely to be waived), one 2nd round pick, and cash considerations
Traded away: Doug McDermott

Wizards +100,000
Traded for: Marvin Bagley III, Richaun Holmes, Isaiah Livers, one 1st round pick, and two 2nd round picks
Traded away: Daniel Gafford, Danilo Gallinari, and Mike Muscala

Hornets +100,000
Traded for: Grant Williams, Kyle Lowry (likely buyout), Tre Mann, Seth Curry, Vasilije Micic, Davis Bertans, two 1st round picks, two 2nd round picks
Traded away: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, and two 2nd round picks
Waived: James Bouknight, Ish Smith, and Frank Ntilikina

Pistons +100,000
Traded for: Simone Fontecchio, Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Shake Milton, Troy Brown, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Malachi Flynn, Ryan Arcidiacono, Danuel House, four 2nd round picks, and cash considerations
Traded away: Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Monte Morris, Mavin Bagley III, Isaiah Livers, Kevin Knox, four 2nd round picks (though one is likely top-55 protected), and the draft rights to Gabriele Procida (#36 pick in 2022)
Waived: Joe Harris, Killian Hayes, Danilo Gallinari, Danuel House, and Ryan Arcidiacono

Golden State buys a pick and trims their tax bill (Shams with the news, Tony East the details 2/8)

Warriors receive:
2024 2nd round pick: Worst of Bucks, Cavaliers, or Pelicans

Pacers receive:
Cory Joseph$2,019,706
2025 Hornets 2nd round pick: top-55 protected 
Cash considerations

Since Second Apron teams like the Warriors won't be able to just buy 2nd round picks anymore going forward (or send cash in deals in general as mentioned below), this is a sneaky good move to spend now now to get the worst of the Pacers' four 2nd rounders while also trimming their luxury tax bill by about $13.5 million due to the repeater penalty. Now they have an open roster spot to convert my guy Lester Quinones to a regular contract by the end of the seasonideally on a multi-year deal, which will eat into those savings but not significantly. Indy had an open roster spot and received more than what's left on Joseph's salary (reportedly $5.8 million) for one of their extra picks, and now they're promptly waiving the veteran guard along with Korkmaz from their earlier trade.

Clippers buy draft rights while they can (Law Murray, 2/8)

Clippers receive:
Draft rights to Ismael Kamagate (#56 pick in 2022)

Nuggets receive:
Cash considerations

Not exactly a blockbuster, but as a Second Apron team, the Clips are about to be unable to send out cash in trades. It was a use or lose it scenario, so they are taking a flier on a 23 year old French big man in Kamagate, who is currently playing in Italy.

Boston adds Springer and sheds Banton (Woj, 2/8)

Celtics receive:
Jaden Springer$2,226,240$4,018,363
2027 2nd round pick: top-55 protected

Trail Blazers receive:
Dalano Banton$2,019,706$2,196,970
Cash considerations

76ers receive:
2024 2nd round pick: More favorable of Bulls or Pelicans

These are two separate trades, but I'm just lumping them together here since they're related for Boston (and the Celtics PR release did the same). Springer is likely going into the Grant Williams Trade Exception that they wouldn't be able to use in the offseason as a Second Apron team, and he takes Banton's roster spot as a young wing with some upside who likely won't play much. Keith Pompey provided the details above for the real 2nd that they sent to Philly for Springer (compared to the fake one from Portland for Banton), so they have at least some hope that the #28 pick in 2021 can tap into his upside. He's recently gotten a showcase of minutes with all of the 76ers' injuries, and while he hasn't shot it well, there have been flashes of defensive tenacity for the 21 year old. 

This leaves Philadelphia with only Joel Embiid and Paul Reed under contract for next season, with the latter's not even guaranteed unless they win a playoff series. Tyrese Maxey's relatively small cap hold will of course still be on the books along with possibly De'Anthony Melton's, but they will have enough room to sign a max contract and more.

Thursday, December 28, 2023

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 13-16 2023

It's here: fantasy football championship week! Since my last post, rookies Tank Dell and Keaton Mitchell suffered unfortunate injuries, but Rachaad White and Trey McBride have continued getting the type of awesome usage that is the point of this series. Once again, I did not mean to have to lump in this many weeks for one post, but the holiday season got in the way. That means there's a lot to talk about, so I'll just get to it with the regular note that snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.
  • When talking about ideal workloads, the conversation pretty much starts with Christian McCaffrey. He just played 100% of the 49ers snaps for the third time this year while also seeing 10 targets for a 22.73% target share that would make a lot of wide receivers blush. Overall on the season he's played 82.78% of the snaps with a 18.62% target share while also getting 74.78% of the running back carries. The combination of receiving and goal line usage in Kyle Shanahan's creative scheme has led to averaging 25.21 PPR points, which is not only the highest among all players but almost 5 points higher than the next RB. The fantasy MVP should have a solid shot of winning the actual NFL award considering his 1,932 yards from scrimmage are 276 more than anyone else and he's tied for the most touchdowns scored at 21. He's just two away from matching Jerry Rice's franchise record (although the GOAT WR did it in just 12 games due to a strike season), and he could get it with a game to spare to lead fantasy managers to the promised land against Washington's pushover defense.

  • Staying in the Bay Area, the splits with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are fascinating. In the 11 games that both have finished, they have identical 81.42% snap rates and 22.52% target shares with Samuel running routes on 89.77% of the dropbacks to Aiyuk's 89.49%. Deebo's unparalleled nose for the end zone gives him a PPG edge of 17.65 to 16.46 in those contests, and he does benefit from 2.67 carries for extra opportunities. Aiyuk is the more refined pure WR who relies a bit more on big plays, as his league-leading 18.5 yards per reception indicates, and his 1,203 receiving yards paces the team. If Samuel gets 166 receiving yards these last two weeks to hit the century mark, these two and George Kittle (currently at 991 yards), could become just the sixth trio in NFL history to all hit 1,000 yards and the first since 2008 Cardinals. That team was led to the Super Bowl by Kurt Warner, whom you may have heard has some similarities with a certain 49ers' QB.