2018 NFL Week 4 Picks

Well, that wasn't exactly the bounce back week I was hoping for, but it was double the amount of wins from my dreadful Week 2. That's what we can call progress. Who knows, maybe I'll double last week's total again and begin a hot streak like my midseason run last year.

Vikings +6.5 at Rams

This pick isn't the start I was looking for, but then again, I won the last two Thursday games before terrible Sundays. The optimistic view would suggest that Minnesota's stunning collapse means I'm due for a big weekend. Law of averages, or something like that.

Bengals +5.5 at Falcons

Atlanta's offense is rolling now after that disappointing opener, but their defense keeps taking hits with free safety Ricardo Allen now out for the year, as well. Cincy moved the ball well even without Joe Mixon last week and is sure to put up points, and I think their defense is strong enough to win this game on the road.

Jaguars -7.5 versus Jets

Both teams lost tough games last week, but Jacksonville seems to actually be getting Leonard Fournette back now to stabilize the offense. And this elite defense getting a turnover-prone rookie QB at home could cover this spread by themselves.

Lions +3.5 at Cowboys

I'm guilty of overrating the impact of injuries to individual players sometimes, but there's no denying that the Dallas defense is vastly different unit when Sean Lee misses time. With Detroit's offense clicking on all cylinders the last game and a half, I think they should've been favored even on the road in this spot.

Detroit needs to keep calm and use Kerryon. He's clearly their best 'back.

2018 NFL Week 3 Picks

Week 2 might be my least favorite week in the NFL season. There's only a one game sample size leading up to it, and you have to try not to overreact to the opening weekend. My guesses at what the lines would be were unusually off as a result, and I ended up with my worst week of picks...ever? But that's in the past, and things are back on track with the spreads aligning more closely with my views of teams now, meaning this should be a better week. It can't get much worse, anyway.

Browns -3.5 versus Jets

Thank goodness for fantasy and football picks pool to make this typical TNF game interesting. I picked Cleveland to get in the W at -3.5 but don’t feel good about it of course 🙈

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) September 21, 2018

Well that was quite the roller coaster, but I'll take another 1-0 start to the week.

49ers +6.5 at Chiefs

I know San Francisco didn't cover again and that I'm probably being a homer, but they were in control of that game before things went off the rails late. Now they get difference-making linebacker Reuben Foster back from suspension while Kansas City's shoddy secondary is still without Eric Berry. I'd feel more comfortable if this was over a touchdown, but I'll take the points in what will be a shootout.

Broncos +5.5 at Ravens

Baltimore is exactly the kind of team that is hard to judge since they beat up on the hapless Bills before a really uneven loss to the Bengals, so I can't feel comfortable laying this many points with them. I do think they'll probably win, but Denver will by no means be a pushover after their 2-0 start. I can almost see Von Miller's pressure forcing a Joe Flacco interception now.

2018 NFL Week 2 Picks

Due to some traveling, I didn't get this post up yesterday as I had hoped, but rest assured that I wrote the TNF section on the plane and had Cincinnati. That already has me off to a better start than Week 1, so here's to that continuing!

Last week: 9-7

Bengals +0.5 versus Ravens

It’s hard to get a proper read on just how good Baltimore really is after beating up on the worst team in the league at home while Cincy had fits and starts before taking care of business on the road. Joe Mixon looked more like the dynamic 2nd round prospect that was expected last year, and if he produces like that consistently, the Bengals could be an underrated good team. I’m buying in this week at least since they’re at home and the Ravens are still difficult to trust.

Titans +4.5 versus Texans

This is of course contingent on the news that Marcus Mariota will play because it’s a tough call as it is. Give me the home ‘dogs, though, because Houston’s offensive line lost starting right tackle Seantrel Henderson for the season and looked as shaky as expected. Deshaun Watson dominated this game last year, but he started experiencing some of that regression to be mean that was bound to come in Week 1.

Steelers -5.5 versus Chiefs

I was shocked when I saw this line after how these teams performed in their season openers, and yet here I am, still laying the points. Pittsburgh has owned this matchup the last few years and are back at Heinz Field, where they are seemingly a completely different team. Kansas City is likely to be without Eric Berry again, so despite how impressive Pat Mahomes and the offense looked, I have a hard time seeing them get enough stops.

Eagles -3.5 at Buccaneers

The fact that Tampa Bay's defense is in shambles was somewhat overlooked in their wild upset in New Orleans last week, and I don't believe in them as a sleeper team as a result. Philadelphia's defense will be a much more difficult challenge for Ryan Fitzpatrick, and I expect him to turn back into a pumpkin soon enough.

Fletcher Cox and the defense showed that they can win even without Nick Foles going crazy.

NFL 2018 Week 1 Picks

If you're here, you know it's just about that time: NFL football is back! After coming in 2nd by a single game in my picks pool on CBS Sports last season, I'm coming back for the title. Their lines will be the basis for my picks here, so without further ado, let the winning begin.

Falcons +3.5 at Eagles

The defending Super Bowl champs may end up being the favorites to repeat as NFC champions in the long run, but Carson Wentz isn't back from his torn ACL yet and top receiver Alshon Jeffery will miss the beginning of the season due to shoulder surgery. Nick Foles' magical hot streak from the playoffs won't continue, so I like Atlanta to avenge their playoff loss to kick off the season.

Steelers -5.5 at Browns

I know, I know: Le'Veon Bell still hasn't reported to the team, and the upstart Browns looked like a new team with all of their changes on display on Hard Knocks. -5.5 seems like a lot of points to lay on the road, especially with with a rookie offensive coordinator to boot, but guess what? Hue Jackson is still the Cleveland head coach with Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Ben Roethlisberger shouldn't have an issue shredding the Browns, whom he is 22-2 against in his career.

Expect Big Ben to receive another congratulatory handshake.

Titans -1.5 at Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill will be making his first start since December 11, 2016 against a team that made it to the Divisional Round last season and added new pieces on defense like Malcolm Butler, Rashaan Evans, and Kenny Vaccaro. Tennessee's offense also stands to improve with coach Mike Mularkey gone and intriguing new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur calling the shots now. After a bit of disappointing year, I say that Marcus Mariota takes the next step this season, and it starts against Miami's unimposing defense.

Ravens -6.5 vs Bills

I would probably take Baltimore no matter how high this line was. Their veteran defense is at home against the guy who threw 5 interceptions on just 14 attempts in the first half of this first start last year. And Nathan Peterman now has less talent around him on what I think will be the worst team in the league. Their secondary is strong, but that's about it, which leaves me confident in this spot.

2018 NBA Offseason Round Up, Part 2

We're just 10 days into July yet there's already been a ton of movement. Since Part 1 of this round up has already gotten too large, the rest of this summer's moves will be recapped here. There isn't a ton of cap space left out there, but as of this writing, I have the Hawks as the leaders with up to $24.2 million, the Bulls with up to $20.6, the Kings with $19.5, and the Nets with up to $12.1. And that's pretty much it, with those teams more likely to keep some of their non-guaranteed guys and/or hoard their room for trades. Other franchises just have some of their exceptions to use, so it's definitely a tough market out there.

Luc Mbah a Moute signs with the Clippers: 1 year, $4.3 million (Woj)

Luc Mbah a Moute

$4,320,500

The rest of the MLE that's being split with Mike Scott.

Bryn Forbes re-signs with the Spurs: 2 years (Shams)

Bryn Forbes

$1,512,601

$1,645,357

I'm assuming the minimum for now.

Davis Bertans re-signs with the Spurs: 2 years, $14.5 million (Shams)

Davis Bertans

$7,073,171

$7,426,829

James Ennis signs with the Rockets: 2 years, minimum contract (Feigen)

James Ennis

$1,621,415

$1,845,300

Wayne Ellington re-signs with the Heat: 1 year, $6.27 million (Haynes)

Wayne Ellington

$6,270,000

Isaiah Thomas signs with the Nuggets: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj)

Isaiah Thomas

$1,512,601

Man, it’s pretty sad to see how far Isaiah has fallen after everything over this past year. His minimum as a 7 year vet is $2,029,463. Not quite the brinks truck he was hoping for.

Jeremy Lin salary dumped on the Hawks (Woj)

Hawks receive:

Jeremy Lin

$12,516,746

Right to swap 2023 2nd round picks

2025 2nd round pick

Nets receive:

Rights to Isaia Cordinier (44th pick in 2016)

Portland’s 2020 2nd round pick, protected 31-55

Nuggets avoid the luxury tax thanks to the Nets (Woj)

Nets receive:

Kenneth Faried

$13,764,045

Darrell Arthur

$7,464,912

2019 1st round pick, protected 1-12

2020 2nd

Nuggets receive:

Isaiah Whitehead

$1,544,951

$1,676,735

Georges Niang re-signs with the Jazz: “multiyear deal” (Shams)

Georges Niang

$1,512,601

$1,645,357

Jabari Parker signs with the Bulls: 2 years, $40 million (Woelfel)

Jabari Parker

$19,512,195

$20,487,805

Entirety of the 2nd year being a team option, per Woj, is huge.

Channing Frye signs with the Cavs: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams)

Channing Frye

$1,512,601

Frye will get $2,393,887 thanks to his experience.

Shabazzi Napier signs with the Nets: 2 year deal (Woj)

Shabazz Napier

$1,621,415

$1,845,300

No financial details yet, but if it’s for the minimum like I’m assuming, Brooklyn can wait until they use the last ~$2 million or so they have left in cap room.

Dante Cunningham signs with the Spurs: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj)

Dante Cunningham

$1,512,601

$2,176,260 will be Cunningham’s reward for having 9 years of experience.

Garrett Temple traded to Memphis (Woj)

Grizzlies receive:

Garrett Temple

$8,000,000

Kings receive:

Ben McLemore

$5,460,000

Deyonta Davis

$1,544,951

2021 2nd round pick

$1.5 million cash

Lorenzo Brown re-signs with the Raptors: 1 year deal (Shams)

Lorenzo Brown

$1,512,601

Brown will earn slight more ($1,621,415) as a 4 year vet.

Treveon Graham signs with the Nets: 2 year deal (Shams)

Treveon Graham

$1,512,601

$1,645,357

Kawhi Leonard traded to the Raptors (Woj)

Raptors receive:

Kawhi Leonard

$20,099,189

$21,329,752

Danny Green

$10,000,000

Spurs receive:

DeMar DeRozan

$27,739,975

$27,739,975

$27,739,975

Jakob Poeltl

$2,947,320

$3,754,886

2019 1st round pick (protected 1-20, then becomes two 2nd round picks)

Credit to Shams for first reporting that this deal was close before Woj had the confirmation with details of the whole package.

2018 NBA Offseason Round Up, Part 1

Can you believe it's already July 1st? If 2018 seems like it's flying by too fast to keep up with all of the NBA news, I've got you covered with everything that went down in the last week with my draft recap. Now, the real fun begins with free agency already going wild just 24 hours in, and I'll try to recap every bit of movement. I probably won't have as many live updates as what I did last year in two parts, but this will be a one stop shop for all the news with guesses at the contract structures. My estimations have been pretty close, but if exact numbers are unknown, they’ll be in bold italics while player options, team options, and non-guaranteed years will be colored as such.

Kevin Durant to re-sign with the Warriors: 1 year, $30 million with a player option (Stein)

Kevin Durant

$30,000,000

$31,500,000

I’ve talked a lot before about the options Durant had, and it’s not too dissimilar to last year. Although going with another 1+1 deal through Non-Bird rights limits him to a 20% raise on last season’s $25 million salary, it provides him leverage with some financial security, and next year as he turns 31, he will finally have full Bird rights to lock in a 5 year deal at the max should he so choose. I’m sure Golden State would’ve preferred giving him his full max now instead of leaving the possibility that he could leave next year, but on the bright side, this saves them at least $23 million or so between salary and luxury tax payments. The $5.65 million difference between Durant’s max salary this year and what he chose more than covers the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception of $5.34 million, so they may be more inclined to use it now despite the tax implications. After all, there are other ways of saving salary like keeping an open roster spot for much of the season so that they don’t have another situation where they have to cut Omri Casspi to convert Quinn Cook’s two-way contract.

Updated #'s for Durant's options this summer now that we know this year's cap and the $109M/$116M projections for the next two years (per @EricPincus).

As I said above, the 1+1 would help the #Warriors' tax bill and allow him to lock in potentially $91.5M more in a year pic.twitter.com/c01ufO9CwY

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) July 1, 2018