Now that we're over halfway through the NFL regular season, we're really seeing roles emerge. Some have been more recent and/or due to a teammate's injury, and looking at these splits is why I write these posts. As usual, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
- The most obvious case of a new role is Chase Brown becoming a bell cow running back without Zack Moss, as showcased on TNF to start Week 10. I already wrote about the former starting to take over after Week 4, and from Weeks 4 through 8, Brown averaged 14.54 points while playing 47.16% of the snaps, running a route on 35.75% of the drop backs, earning a 9.87% target share, and seeing 60.95% of the RB carries compared to 8.28 points for Moss with 55.52%/48.04%/10.53%/39.05% rates. Then Moss unfortunately sustained a neck injury that's expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, and Brown has put up 26.7 and 22.4 points while seeing 100% of the RB carries.
The Bengals made a minor trade for Khalil Herbert at the deadline, but he fumbled what would've been his only carry in his debut. And while he's a shifty back, Herbert's role with the Bears was similar to Brown's with a lack of a receiving role holding him back. At least, that was how Brown was being used because these these past two games he's set new season-highs in route participation (63.41% and then 75%) and target share (13.51% and then an eye-catching 20.37%). The more experienced Moss was getting those opportunities because he's more reliable in pass protection, but now that the second-year 'back is being trusted there, the sky is the limit. - Travis Kelce is another player who has taken off since Week 4, which is when Rashee Rice suffered a brutal knee injury on friendly fire during an interception return after just four plays. In the first three games, the star tight end only averaged 5 points with a 13.95% target share despite an 84.97% snap rate and 85.98% route participation. Starting with the game that Rice was injured in, Kelce's splits are now 17.50 points, a massive 31.37%, 81.32%, and 90.08% over the last six contests.
Travis Kelce's first TD of year? On #NationalTightEndsDay!
— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024
📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
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