Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 9-10 2024

Now that we're over halfway through the NFL regular season, we're really seeing roles emerge. Some have been more recent and/or due to a teammate's injury, and looking at these splits is why I write these posts. As usual, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The most obvious case of a new role is Chase Brown becoming a bell cow running back without Zack Moss, as showcased on TNF to start Week 10. I already wrote about the former starting to take over after Week 4, and from Weeks 4 through 8, Brown averaged 14.54 points while playing 47.16% of the snaps, running a route on 35.75% of the drop backs, earning a 9.87% target share, and seeing 60.95% of the RB carries compared to 8.28 points for Moss with 55.52%/48.04%/10.53%/39.05% rates. Then Moss unfortunately sustained a neck injury that's expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, and Brown has put up 26.7 and 22.4 points while seeing 100% of the RB carries.
  
  The Bengals made a minor trade for Khalil Herbert at the deadline, but he fumbled what would've been his only carry in his debut. And while he's a shifty back, Herbert's role with the Bears was similar to Brown's with a lack of a receiving role holding him back. At least, that was how Brown was being used because these these past two games he's set new season-highs in route participation (63.41% and then 75%) and target share (13.51% and then an eye-catching 20.37%). The more experienced Moss was getting those opportunities because he's more reliable in pass protection, but now that the second-year 'back is being trusted there, the sky is the limit.
  
  
• Travis Kelce is another player who has taken off since Week 4, which is when Rashee Rice suffered a brutal knee injury on friendly fire during an interception return after just four plays. In the first three games, the star tight end only averaged 5 points with a 13.95% target share despite an 84.97% snap rate and 85.98% route participation. Starting with the game that Rice was injured in, Kelce's splits are now 17.50 points, a massive 31.37%, 81.32%, and 90.08% over the last six contests.

  Travis Kelce's first TD of year? On #NationalTightEndsDay!
  
  📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uOQ8BVlAiK

  — NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-8 2024

I hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween! With October officially in the books, we're about halfway through the NFL season already. That means there is a good sample size now for the vast majority of players, and with two weeks to look at since my last post, there are plenty of options to choose from. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• After a ridiculously slow start, the tight end position is starting to come on of late across the league, and veteran Zach Ertz is having an underrated campaign among them. Overall, he's averaging a modest 9.31 points despite a nice role with a 20% target share while running a route on 78.84% of Washington's drop backs despite only being in on 67.42% of the snaps. He's not in there to block much, basically, and over the last three weeks he's been more effective with a little bump in usage to average 13.17 with a 70.79% snap rate, 76.27% route participation, and 22.83% target share.
  
  Some people were excited about rookie Ben Sinnott after he was drafted 53rd overall as the second TE off the board, but Ertz has has absolutely dominated the receiving role for the Commanders. Sinnott has only played 30.87% of the snaps and run a route on 17.06% of drop backs, which has resulted in a minuscule 0.89% target share. Ironically, he went from not even seeing a single target the first six weeks to scoring a touchdown on his first look...but then he went back 0 targets in Week 8.
  
  
• The first TE taken in this draft was of course Brock Bowers, and he's lived up to the "generational" moniker at the position. Already as a rookie he's second in scoring with a 14.09 average while having a 77.13% snap rate, 75.86% route participation, and massive 24.44% target share. Those numbers are even larger over the last five games, which coincides with the last time that top target Davante Adams (hamstring and trade) and #2 TE Michael Mayer (personal reasons) played. Since Week 4, Bowers' splits are 15 points and 82.67%/82.72%/27.67%...and that's with just one (1) touchdown scored so far. 535 receiving yards usually results in more scores, and if the Raiders offense can get a little more competent to give him more chances, he could challenge for TE1 overall status.
  

  Bowers showing off the hands on #NationalTightEndsDay
  
  📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/RUjIkgkYcx

  — NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2024

With this week's post a touch later than usual, I'm going to keep it brief. You know the deal by this point of the season: fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Kenneth Walker III didn't have much success on the ground on TNF (just 32 yards on 14 carries), but he did add 37 yards through the air while setting a career-high with 8 catches. That continues a trend this year with the third-year running back now holding a 14.55% target share per game after that number was below 10% in each of the last two seasons.
  
  The new Seahawks coaching staff talked about over the offseason about using Walker in the passing game more, and that's come to fruition to give him a much higher floor than before with the 20.9 points last week a great example. Combine that with getting 75% of the RB carries, and you've got an elite RB role.
  
  
• In that same same, George Kittle continued to play like the best tight end in football by hauling in two more touchdowns to give him five on the season already. Scoring in four straight games has him tied for the most TDs in the league despite sitting out Week 3, and he's now averaging 17.26 points per game while the next closest is 13.77.
  
  This scoring rate may regress to the mean, but Kittle is also just seeing a ton of short-range opportunities with Christian McCaffrey still sidelined. His 7.7 aDOT is slightly below his 7.9 career average and way below last year's 9.9. That could help explain the jump from a 20.18% target share to 23.33% despite lower snap and route shares of 87.13% and 80%. Those are still high-end marks, of course; he's just been banged up a bit more to miss some time. Maybe things change in the second half of the season, but this gap atop the TE rankings had to be called out.

  Kittle's footwork 😮‍💨#SFvsSEA on Prime Video
  Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/t7BgSL1A5z

  — NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 5 2024

Well, last week's post ended up cursing the Minnesota guys while Dontayvion Wicks couldn't cash in on more great usage (28% target share!), but Josh Downs and Chase Brown continued to earn more work. A few of the guys for this week are on bye, so they won't have go through those kind of swings for at least one weekend.

As always when looking at notable stats across the league, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now is that the #3 overall pick, Drake Maye, is making his first start for the Patriots. The situation around him doesn't project to be great due to the offensive line, but I'm curious to see how their 2nd rounder, Ja'Lynn Polk, does with this change. After mixing in as a part-time player the first three weeks, Polk has played 91.13% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.11% of the drop backs, and earned a 20.97% target share over the last two games. He's only been able to turn that into 8.3 total points, but if he gets 6 or 7 targets again from Maye rather than Jacoby Brissett, maybe better results are on the way. I dug into Polk as a prospect right before the season here.
  
  Staying in New England, head coach Jerod Mayo made a big deal last week about Rhamondre Stevenson no longer starting due to fumbling in each of the first four games. While Antonio Gibson technically got the start, Stevenson still played the exact same 28 snaps (46.67%) as Gibson and led the team with 12 carries (66.67% of the running back share). Gibson ran a route on 43.24% of drop backs compared to 32.43%, but he only finished with one target to Stevenson's 4 (13.33% target share). Stevenson did get ruled out this morning due to a foot injury, so we'll see how much of the workload Gibson carries this week.

  Rhamondre Stevenson goes 33 yards for the TD!
  
  📺: #MIAvsNE on FOX
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/6KyiDrKa3I

  — NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-4 2024

After a quick detour to the NBA side last week due to the stunning trade that went down, Gio-ing Deep is back with more usage notes around the NFL! The sample size is getting a little larger now, so there are more takeaways that you can start to believe in from the data. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The 4-0 Vikings are one of the best surprises of the league so far, thanks in large part to Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones being tremendous free agent signings. The former leads the league in touchdown passes with 11 despite being just 22nd in pass attempts, and his 8.8 yards per attempt ranks 2nd in the league behind only the player he backed up last season, Brock Purdy. Darnold smartly joined a team that runs a similar scheme to what he was in last year, so he's hit the ground running with the kind of efficiency that the 49ers typically have. His current 10.4% touchdown percentage is bound to regress (league average is usually in the 4-5% range), but he can continue to lead a good offense, especially with Jordan Addison back now and TJ Hockenson opening up his practice window to return from injury. Combine that with Darnold's underrated rushing ability, and he could be a viable fantasy quarterback all season.
  

  Watch where the ball hits Jefferson.
  
  Darnold DIME.
  
  📺: #MINvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/bcQyqq6Qw7

  — NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

  Jones is already proving to be one of the best fantasy values of the year now that he's fully healthy again. He hasn't run for a TD since the opener and only added one more through the air so far, yet he's a top-10 running back (18.1 points per game) thanks to his typical efficiency and strong receiving role. After only getting 2 targets in Week 1 due to the blowout nature of the game, Jones has had at least 5 targets every week since, and he has a 19.19% target share on the season. Seeing 65.42% of the snaps and and 68.82% of the RB carries aren't quite as strong of rates, but those did bump up this past week to 82.35% and 88%. Minnesota might've simply been trying to feed him in his return to Green Bay for a #revengegame, but it at least shows that the volume potential is there.
  
  
• On the other side of that game, Dontayvion Wicks had the breakout game that his truthers have been waiting for since best ball draft szn with 5 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. There is important context that the Packers had to throw the ball 54 times as they fell behind 28-0, and Christian Watson only played 9 snaps due to unfortunately suffering a high-ankle sprain on one of Jordan Love's three interceptions.

Digging into the Knicks-Wolves Blockbuster

Knicks receive:

Karl-Anthony Towns

$49,205,800

$53,142,264

$57,078,728

$61,015,192

Draft rights to 2023 #31 pick James Nnjai

Timberwolves receive:

Julius Randle

$28,939,680

$30,935,520

Donte DiVincenzo

$11,445,000

$11,990,000

$12,535,000

Keita Bates-Diop

$2,654,644

2025 Pistons 1st round pick (via Knicks, protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:

DaQuan Jeffries	$2,425,404	$2,743,776	$3,080,917
Charlie Brown Jr	$2,237,692	$2,546,673	$2,874,432
Duane Washington Jr	$2,162,607	$2,349,576	$2,667,944

2025 2nd round pick (Lesser of Nuggets or 76ers, via Wolves)

2026 Warriors 2nd round pick (via Knicks)

2031 Knicks 2nd

$7.2 million in cash considerations

Talk about a Friday night surprise from Shams. I'm still adding updates to the Offseason Tracker, but a stunning blockbuster at this point in the calendar deserves its own post.

On the one hand, there have been some signs that each of these teams could make this type of move. Everyone's been anticipating Minnesota making a cost-cutting move due to extensions for Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels all kicking in this year, particularly with their ownership situation in flux; there have been rumors of NY's interest in Towns ever since his former agent at CAA, Leon Rose, took over basketball operations in 2020; and there's been a lot of speculation about Randle's future ahead of his potential free agency next summer, especially after the team's success while he was injured. But on the other hand, there were not any recent hints of this major of a move for either side as training camps are set to get underway.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2024

I say it every year, but Week 2 is always one of the most interesting slates of the NFL season since you start to see what might be real from the opener. It's still a small sample size that we're dealing with, but these were some of the observations that stood out most to me through two games. Once again, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The TNF game during into a blowout after Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another scary concussion, but there were a couple of other key notes from the Dolphins offense, as well. The most obvious is that with Raheem Mostert sitting out, De'Von Achane became an absolute workhorse. After being in a rotation as a rookie, even when Mostert was unavailable, Achane was given 22 carries (75.86% of the running back rushes) and 7 targets for a 18.92% target share. He also saw 7 targets (19.44%) in Week 1, so he has a 19.18% target share on the season so far with 26.25 fantasy points per game. Achane has lined up as a receiver on 25 of his 85 (29.41%) of his snaps so far, so he could finish as the #3 passing option in this offense throughout the year.

  Tua. Achane. Tie game.#BUFvsMIA on Prime Video
  Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BspX8Yhq4A

  — NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2024

  Perhaps the main competition for that role is new "tight end" Jonnu Smith, who also saw 7 targets on Thursday and turned them into 11.3 points. I put that position in quotes because he's basically playing as a big wide receiver, having lined up in the slot or out wide on 45 of his 52 snaps (86.54%) on the season. In Week 2, he was only in on 32 plays for a 41.56% snap rate, but he ran a route on 31 of them for a 68.89% route participation, and through two weeks he's run 48 routes in those 52 snaps (92.31%). So he's on the field to do one thing, and he did it at a much higher frequency than in Week 1 when he only had a 28.17% snap rate, 38.64% route participation, and 5.56% target share. I'm definitely keeping an eye on whether those rates continue to rise.
  
  
• Another new addition to a team is Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, and in Week 2, we saw more of the more open passing attack that was expected like in his previous offenses at the University of Washington. Perhaps it was due to Kenneth Walker being injured, but they increased their drop backs from 28 to 48. The new game plan benefited Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most as he saw 16 looks for a 37.21% target share after just 2 for 8% with the limited optortunities in the opener. His snap rates (79.10% and 82.86%) and route participation (89.29% and 91.67%) have held steady each week, but the team's different approach led to a jump from 3.9 points to 23.7.