Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 14-15 2024

As we near the end of the NFL season, injuries and benchings are happening across the league with some interesting fallout for surrounding players. There are also still some developments in the outcome of the many trades that happened this year, so that's where I come in.

Like I always say, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The Jaguars passing attack has seen a lot of change in the second half of the season between Evan Engram missing time with hamstring and labrum injuries, Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone in Week 8, Gabe Davis suffering a torn meniscus in Week 11, and Trevor Lawrence missing time with an injury to his shoulder injury and then a concussion. Just about the only constant has been star rookie Brian Thomas, and even he was affected by a chest injury, although it didn't cost him any games.
  
  While I was excited about him in my pre-season rookie wide receiver rankings, I wasn't high on him enough because he more than looks the part of an alpha WR. Overall on the season he is averaging 15.33 points while playing 77.47% of Jacksonville's snaps, running a route on 83.76% of the drop backs, and earning a 22.76% target share, and he's really come on of late. It may be due to fellow perimeter threat Davis going down, getting past the chest injury in Week 8 that immediately saw him with three straight target shares below 15%, or just backup quarterback Mac Jones locking onto him. In any case, Thomas is averaging 20.35 with 86.97%/93.17%/30.07% splits from Week 11 on, and he's poised to finish strong in the fantasy semifinals and championship against the Raiders and Titans, respectively.
  

  And he can do this! pic.twitter.com/G86SfmmggF

  — Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 18, 2024

  Another young player who has stepped up for them is second year tight end Brenton Strange. Last year's 2nd round pick basically assumes Engram's role whenever the veteran is out, and he's looked solid. Between Weeks 2-5 and now 15, Strange is averaging 10.86 points with a 75.83% snap rate, 70.67% route participation, and 16.67% target share in his five games as the primary TE.
  

2024-25 NBA Trade Tracker

I'm pretty sure this is the earliest that I've had to start this post, but teams aren't wasting any time with most free agents from this past summer becoming trade eligible on December 15th. Like last year's edition, I'll be adding deals to the top of this post as they happen so that the latest news is easily accessible and including in parentheses who broke the story and when. Future draft pick details are typically from RealGM.com, and the salary figures are from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com with future money color-coded in case of a player option, team option, or not fully guaranteed.

Utah bets on upside (Shams 1/21)

Jazz receive:

2031 Suns 1st round pick

Suns receive:

2025 1st round pick (Worse of Cavaliers or Wolves)

2027 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, or Wolves)

2029 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, or Wolves)

Phoenix wastes no time adding big man help (Shams 1/15)

Suns receive:

Nick Richards

$5,000,000

$5,000,000

2025 2nd round pick (Worse of Nuggets or 76ers)

Hornets receive:

Josh Okogie

$8,250,000

$7,750,000

2026 Nuggets 2nd round pick

2031 Nuggets 2nd round pick

2031 Suns 2nd round pick

DLo returns to another former team (Shams 12/29)

Lakers receive:

Dorian Finney-Smith

$14,922,980

$15,378,480

Shake Milton

$2,875,000

$3,000,000

$3,287,406

Nets receive:

D'Angelo Russell

$18,692,307

Maxwell Lewis

$1,891,857

$2,221,677

$2,406,205

2027 (conditional), 2030, and 2031 Lakers 2nd round picks

Golden State replaces injured guard (Shams 12/14)

Warriors receive:

Dennis Schroder

$13,025,250

2025 Heat 2nd round pick (protected 31-37)

Nets receive:

De'Anthony Melton

$12,822,000

Reece Beekman (Two-Way)

2026 and 2028 Hawks 2nd round picks

2029 Warriors 2nd round pick

Another trade that's pretty much reported as done and will be finalized once Melton is trade-eligible tomorrow. He was a great fit for the Warriors as a 3+D guard who can act as an ancillary creator but unfortunately suffered a partial ACL tear last month, so his one-year contract at the MLE level became an obvious trade piece. Golden State being hard-capped at the First Apron limits their trade flexibility, so having to only give up 2nd round draft capital to add the proven secondary playmaker that they need is a really solid move. I would guess that the '26 and '28 Hawks 2nd rounders that they own are a part of this and that Shams' later report of getting a 2nd back will be a protected pick, possibly Miami's (protected 31-37) this year.

12/15 Update: Anthony Slater confirms that it is exactly the two Hawks picks and protected Heat pick involved as I speculated, along with the inclusion of Beekman that I mentioned below from Fischer's report. The terms are now updated above.

I think Schroder has been overrated a bit in the past, but he is more than qualified to be a backup point guard who can also close games next to the star like when he finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting back with the Thunder. He was backing up Chris Paul then, and I would guess that he steps into the role that CP3 had with the Warriors last year, funnily enough. Schroder's 6'7.75" wingspan and outside shooting improving to 37.8% over the past two seasons (34.4% for his career) makes him easier to fit into different lineup combinations, and he could provide the type of spark they need after a 2-7 stretch following their 12-3 start to the season.

It does feel like a little bit of a light return for Brooklyn given the year that Schroder is having, but a cynic might say that he was hurting their chances of tanking too much. At the very least, they're adding to their cache of draft picks instead of simply losing a free agent at the end of the season. Jake Fischer did mention in his report that rookie point guard Reece Beekman could also be heading their way in a rare instance of a player traded while on a Two-Way contract. He was considered a 2nd round prospect at various points of his Virginia career for his defensive prowess, so that could be a sneaky addition to the Nets' return. Beekman is averaging 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks through his first nine G League games, and he could be in line for some point guard minutes at the next level with Schroder out the door.

Indiana adds center depth (Shams 12/13)

Pacers receive:

Thomas Bryant

$2,087,519

Heat receive:

2031 2nd round pick swap

This was reported on Friday but can't become official until Sunday since Bryant opted out and re-signed at a slightly lower number over the summer to help lower Miami's luxury tax bill. Now they lower it even more by shipping him out and replacing him with a pro-rated minimum salary, which is understandable considering he's only played 115 total minutes this year after just 441 last season.

Bryant has bounced around a lot in recent years but has had flashes of being a stretch big (35.5% career 3P%) who still helps on the glass. This could be a nice homecoming for the former Hoosier since Indiana has unbelievably lost both James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson to torn Achilles tendons and need another backup big. The addition comes at a pretty minimal cost, and they'll still be able to stay out of the luxury tax.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 11-13 2024

It's crunch time in the fantasy regular season, and the NFL schedule this year made things a little awkward. Perhaps due to Thanksgiving being so late in November, there were six teams on bye in Week 12, none in Week 13, and then six more now in Week 14 with managers making one last push for a playoff spot. Sometimes you have to be Gio-ing Deep into depth charts.

As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Partly due to the holiday I haven't had a chance to write recently, and what a run it's been for fringe wide receivers with hyphenated names in that span! Since joining the Saints in Week 9, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has only played 58.4% of the snaps, run a route on 72.31% of the drop backs, and earned a 9.91% target share (11 total)...yet he's scored FOUR touchdowns in five games to average 13.93 points. And this comes after only catching three TDs in 33 games over the past two years on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him and zero in 6 games with Josh Allen and the Bills this year before being released.
  
  Even if you remove the first game due to MVS still adjusting to his new team, he's only been playing 66.12% of the snaps with a 79.17% route participation and 12.05% target share, so it's hard to believe that he'll keep this scoring up. Finding the end zone four times in his last 10 targets has been impressive, though.
  
  
• Similarly, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored eight times in his last eight games, even dating back to before the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I talked about how Calvin Ridley has taken off since then in my last post, and now in six games as a starter, NWI has averaged 14.6 points with a 93.83% snap rate, 95.09% route participation, and 17.98% target share. That kind of usage is a little easier to trust, even if TD regression is bound to hit. Will Levis has been playing better in the four games since coming back from his shoulder injury, averaging 16.75 points, and with a favorable schedule against the Jaguars twice, Colts, and Bengals, this passing game could determine some fantasy titles.
  
  
• Another passing attack that's been on the rise: the Browns with Jameis Winston, thanks in part to huge volume. They lead the league in drop backs per game with 45.92, and in Winston's five starts that number is 48.2 to help him average 21.34 points. And with the Amari Cooper trade also happening right before this stretch, the other pass catchers are absolutely thriving.
  
  Jerry Jeudy is averaging 21.68 points, which would be WR2 overall on the season, with 91.53%/96.28%/22.69% rates over these five weeks. That's of course inflated by his insane 235 yard #RevengeGame on MNF, the most ever for a player against his former team, but the fact that it came against the Broncos' previously elite defense makes it even more impressive. It's a bit crazy to think that it came on 13 looks that "only" made for a 22.81% target share in this pass happy offense.
  

  First play for the Browns... AND JERRY JEUDY IS FREE.
  
  📺: #CLEvsDEN on ESPN
  📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/MQsQirbiZN

  — NFL (@NFL) December 3, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 9-10 2024

Now that we're over halfway through the NFL regular season, we're really seeing roles emerge. Some have been more recent and/or due to a teammate's injury, and looking at these splits is why I write these posts. As usual, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The most obvious case of a new role is Chase Brown becoming a bell cow running back without Zack Moss, as showcased on TNF to start Week 10. I already wrote about the former starting to take over after Week 4, and from Weeks 4 through 8, Brown averaged 14.54 points while playing 47.16% of the snaps, running a route on 35.75% of the drop backs, earning a 9.87% target share, and seeing 60.95% of the RB carries compared to 8.28 points for Moss with 55.52%/48.04%/10.53%/39.05% rates. Then Moss unfortunately sustained a neck injury that's expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, and Brown has put up 26.7 and 22.4 points while seeing 100% of the RB carries.
  
  The Bengals made a minor trade for Khalil Herbert at the deadline, but he fumbled what would've been his only carry in his debut. And while he's a shifty back, Herbert's role with the Bears was similar to Brown's with a lack of a receiving role holding him back. At least, that was how Brown was being used because these these past two games he's set new season-highs in route participation (63.41% and then 75%) and target share (13.51% and then an eye-catching 20.37%). The more experienced Moss was getting those opportunities because he's more reliable in pass protection, but now that the second-year 'back is being trusted there, the sky is the limit.
  
  
• Travis Kelce is another player who has taken off since Week 4, which is when Rashee Rice suffered a brutal knee injury on friendly fire during an interception return after just four plays. In the first three games, the star tight end only averaged 5 points with a 13.95% target share despite an 84.97% snap rate and 85.98% route participation. Starting with the game that Rice was injured in, Kelce's splits are now 17.50 points, a massive 31.37%, 81.32%, and 90.08% over the last six contests.

  Travis Kelce's first TD of year? On #NationalTightEndsDay!
  
  📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uOQ8BVlAiK

  — NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-8 2024

I hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween! With October officially in the books, we're about halfway through the NFL season already. That means there is a good sample size now for the vast majority of players, and with two weeks to look at since my last post, there are plenty of options to choose from. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• After a ridiculously slow start, the tight end position is starting to come on of late across the league, and veteran Zach Ertz is having an underrated campaign among them. Overall, he's averaging a modest 9.31 points despite a nice role with a 20% target share while running a route on 78.84% of Washington's drop backs despite only being in on 67.42% of the snaps. He's not in there to block much, basically, and over the last three weeks he's been more effective with a little bump in usage to average 13.17 with a 70.79% snap rate, 76.27% route participation, and 22.83% target share.
  
  Some people were excited about rookie Ben Sinnott after he was drafted 53rd overall as the second TE off the board, but Ertz has has absolutely dominated the receiving role for the Commanders. Sinnott has only played 30.87% of the snaps and run a route on 17.06% of drop backs, which has resulted in a minuscule 0.89% target share. Ironically, he went from not even seeing a single target the first six weeks to scoring a touchdown on his first look...but then he went back 0 targets in Week 8.
  
  
• The first TE taken in this draft was of course Brock Bowers, and he's lived up to the "generational" moniker at the position. Already as a rookie he's second in scoring with a 14.09 average while having a 77.13% snap rate, 75.86% route participation, and massive 24.44% target share. Those numbers are even larger over the last five games, which coincides with the last time that top target Davante Adams (hamstring and trade) and #2 TE Michael Mayer (personal reasons) played. Since Week 4, Bowers' splits are 15 points and 82.67%/82.72%/27.67%...and that's with just one (1) touchdown scored so far. 535 receiving yards usually results in more scores, and if the Raiders offense can get a little more competent to give him more chances, he could challenge for TE1 overall status.
  

  Bowers showing off the hands on #NationalTightEndsDay
  
  📺: #KCvsLV on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/RUjIkgkYcx

  — NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2024

With this week's post a touch later than usual, I'm going to keep it brief. You know the deal by this point of the season: fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Kenneth Walker III didn't have much success on the ground on TNF (just 32 yards on 14 carries), but he did add 37 yards through the air while setting a career-high with 8 catches. That continues a trend this year with the third-year running back now holding a 14.55% target share per game after that number was below 10% in each of the last two seasons.
  
  The new Seahawks coaching staff talked about over the offseason about using Walker in the passing game more, and that's come to fruition to give him a much higher floor than before with the 20.9 points last week a great example. Combine that with getting 75% of the RB carries, and you've got an elite RB role.
  
  
• In that same same, George Kittle continued to play like the best tight end in football by hauling in two more touchdowns to give him five on the season already. Scoring in four straight games has him tied for the most TDs in the league despite sitting out Week 3, and he's now averaging 17.26 points per game while the next closest is 13.77.
  
  This scoring rate may regress to the mean, but Kittle is also just seeing a ton of short-range opportunities with Christian McCaffrey still sidelined. His 7.7 aDOT is slightly below his 7.9 career average and way below last year's 9.9. That could help explain the jump from a 20.18% target share to 23.33% despite lower snap and route shares of 87.13% and 80%. Those are still high-end marks, of course; he's just been banged up a bit more to miss some time. Maybe things change in the second half of the season, but this gap atop the TE rankings had to be called out.

  Kittle's footwork 😮‍💨#SFvsSEA on Prime Video
  Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/t7BgSL1A5z

  — NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 5 2024

Well, last week's post ended up cursing the Minnesota guys while Dontayvion Wicks couldn't cash in on more great usage (28% target share!), but Josh Downs and Chase Brown continued to earn more work. A few of the guys for this week are on bye, so they won't have go through those kind of swings for at least one weekend.

As always when looking at notable stats across the league, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now is that the #3 overall pick, Drake Maye, is making his first start for the Patriots. The situation around him doesn't project to be great due to the offensive line, but I'm curious to see how their 2nd rounder, Ja'Lynn Polk, does with this change. After mixing in as a part-time player the first three weeks, Polk has played 91.13% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.11% of the drop backs, and earned a 20.97% target share over the last two games. He's only been able to turn that into 8.3 total points, but if he gets 6 or 7 targets again from Maye rather than Jacoby Brissett, maybe better results are on the way. I dug into Polk as a prospect right before the season here.
  
  Staying in New England, head coach Jerod Mayo made a big deal last week about Rhamondre Stevenson no longer starting due to fumbling in each of the first four games. While Antonio Gibson technically got the start, Stevenson still played the exact same 28 snaps (46.67%) as Gibson and led the team with 12 carries (66.67% of the running back share). Gibson ran a route on 43.24% of drop backs compared to 32.43%, but he only finished with one target to Stevenson's 4 (13.33% target share). Stevenson did get ruled out this morning due to a foot injury, so we'll see how much of the workload Gibson carries this week.

  Rhamondre Stevenson goes 33 yards for the TD!
  
  📺: #MIAvsNE on FOX
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/6KyiDrKa3I

  — NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024