Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 5 2024

Well, last week's post ended up cursing the Minnesota guys while Dontayvion Wicks couldn't cash in on more great usage (28% target share!), but Josh Downs and Chase Brown continued to earn more work. A few of the guys for this week are on bye, so they won't have go through those kind of swings for at least one weekend.

As always when looking at notable stats across the league, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now is that the #3 overall pick, Drake Maye, is making his first start for the Patriots. The situation around him doesn't project to be great due to the offensive line, but I'm curious to see how their 2nd rounder, Ja'Lynn Polk, does with this change. After mixing in as a part-time player the first three weeks, Polk has played 91.13% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.11% of the drop backs, and earned a 20.97% target share over the last two games. He's only been able to turn that into 8.3 total points, but if he gets 6 or 7 targets again from Maye rather than Jacoby Brissett, maybe better results are on the way. I dug into Polk as a prospect right before the season here.
  
  Staying in New England, head coach Jerod Mayo made a big deal last week about Rhamondre Stevenson no longer starting due to fumbling in each of the first four games. While Antonio Gibson technically got the start, Stevenson still played the exact same 28 snaps (46.67%) as Gibson and led the team with 12 carries (66.67% of the running back share). Gibson ran a route on 43.24% of drop backs compared to 32.43%, but he only finished with one target to Stevenson's 4 (13.33% target share). Stevenson did get ruled out this morning due to a foot injury, so we'll see how much of the workload Gibson carries this week.

  Rhamondre Stevenson goes 33 yards for the TD!
  
  📺: #MIAvsNE on FOX
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/6KyiDrKa3I

  — NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-4 2024

After a quick detour to the NBA side last week due to the stunning trade that went down, Gio-ing Deep is back with more usage notes around the NFL! The sample size is getting a little larger now, so there are more takeaways that you can start to believe in from the data. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The 4-0 Vikings are one of the best surprises of the league so far, thanks in large part to Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones being tremendous free agent signings. The former leads the league in touchdown passes with 11 despite being just 22nd in pass attempts, and his 8.8 yards per attempt ranks 2nd in the league behind only the player he backed up last season, Brock Purdy. Darnold smartly joined a team that runs a similar scheme to what he was in last year, so he's hit the ground running with the kind of efficiency that the 49ers typically have. His current 10.4% touchdown percentage is bound to regress (league average is usually in the 4-5% range), but he can continue to lead a good offense, especially with Jordan Addison back now and TJ Hockenson opening up his practice window to return from injury. Combine that with Darnold's underrated rushing ability, and he could be a viable fantasy quarterback all season.
  

  Watch where the ball hits Jefferson.
  
  Darnold DIME.
  
  📺: #MINvsGB on CBS/Paramount+
  📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/bcQyqq6Qw7

  — NFL (@NFL) September 29, 2024

  Jones is already proving to be one of the best fantasy values of the year now that he's fully healthy again. He hasn't run for a TD since the opener and only added one more through the air so far, yet he's a top-10 running back (18.1 points per game) thanks to his typical efficiency and strong receiving role. After only getting 2 targets in Week 1 due to the blowout nature of the game, Jones has had at least 5 targets every week since, and he has a 19.19% target share on the season. Seeing 65.42% of the snaps and and 68.82% of the RB carries aren't quite as strong of rates, but those did bump up this past week to 82.35% and 88%. Minnesota might've simply been trying to feed him in his return to Green Bay for a #revengegame, but it at least shows that the volume potential is there.
  
  
• On the other side of that game, Dontayvion Wicks had the breakout game that his truthers have been waiting for since best ball draft szn with 5 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. There is important context that the Packers had to throw the ball 54 times as they fell behind 28-0, and Christian Watson only played 9 snaps due to unfortunately suffering a high-ankle sprain on one of Jordan Love's three interceptions.

Digging into the Knicks-Wolves Blockbuster

Knicks receive:

Karl-Anthony Towns

$49,205,800

$53,142,264

$57,078,728

$61,015,192

Draft rights to 2023 #31 pick James Nnjai

Timberwolves receive:

Julius Randle

$28,939,680

$30,935,520

Donte DiVincenzo

$11,445,000

$11,990,000

$12,535,000

Keita Bates-Diop

$2,654,644

2025 Pistons 1st round pick (via Knicks, protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:

DaQuan Jeffries	$2,425,404	$2,743,776	$3,080,917
Charlie Brown Jr	$2,237,692	$2,546,673	$2,874,432
Duane Washington Jr	$2,162,607	$2,349,576	$2,667,944

2025 2nd round pick (Lesser of Nuggets or 76ers, via Wolves)

2026 Warriors 2nd round pick (via Knicks)

2031 Knicks 2nd

$7.2 million in cash considerations

Talk about a Friday night surprise from Shams. I'm still adding updates to the Offseason Tracker, but a stunning blockbuster at this point in the calendar deserves its own post.

On the one hand, there have been some signs that each of these teams could make this type of move. Everyone's been anticipating Minnesota making a cost-cutting move due to extensions for Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels all kicking in this year, particularly with their ownership situation in flux; there have been rumors of NY's interest in Towns ever since his former agent at CAA, Leon Rose, took over basketball operations in 2020; and there's been a lot of speculation about Randle's future ahead of his potential free agency next summer, especially after the team's success while he was injured. But on the other hand, there were not any recent hints of this major of a move for either side as training camps are set to get underway.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2024

I say it every year, but Week 2 is always one of the most interesting slates of the NFL season since you start to see what might be real from the opener. It's still a small sample size that we're dealing with, but these were some of the observations that stood out most to me through two games. Once again, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The TNF game during into a blowout after Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another scary concussion, but there were a couple of other key notes from the Dolphins offense, as well. The most obvious is that with Raheem Mostert sitting out, De'Von Achane became an absolute workhorse. After being in a rotation as a rookie, even when Mostert was unavailable, Achane was given 22 carries (75.86% of the running back rushes) and 7 targets for a 18.92% target share. He also saw 7 targets (19.44%) in Week 1, so he has a 19.18% target share on the season so far with 26.25 fantasy points per game. Achane has lined up as a receiver on 25 of his 85 (29.41%) of his snaps so far, so he could finish as the #3 passing option in this offense throughout the year.

  Tua. Achane. Tie game.#BUFvsMIA on Prime Video
  Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/BspX8Yhq4A

  — NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2024

  Perhaps the main competition for that role is new "tight end" Jonnu Smith, who also saw 7 targets on Thursday and turned them into 11.3 points. I put that position in quotes because he's basically playing as a big wide receiver, having lined up in the slot or out wide on 45 of his 52 snaps (86.54%) on the season. In Week 2, he was only in on 32 plays for a 41.56% snap rate, but he ran a route on 31 of them for a 68.89% route participation, and through two weeks he's run 48 routes in those 52 snaps (92.31%). So he's on the field to do one thing, and he did it at a much higher frequency than in Week 1 when he only had a 28.17% snap rate, 38.64% route participation, and 5.56% target share. I'm definitely keeping an eye on whether those rates continue to rise.
  
  
• Another new addition to a team is Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, and in Week 2, we saw more of the more open passing attack that was expected like in his previous offenses at the University of Washington. Perhaps it was due to Kenneth Walker being injured, but they increased their drop backs from 28 to 48. The new game plan benefited Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most as he saw 16 looks for a 37.21% target share after just 2 for 8% with the limited optortunities in the opener. His snap rates (79.10% and 82.86%) and route participation (89.29% and 91.67%) have held steady each week, but the team's different approach led to a jump from 3.9 points to 23.7.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2024

The NFL season officially started last week, and so did my football posts after a busy NBA offseason. That was more of a long-term outlook for this year's rookie WR class, and now I'm getting back into my week to week usage notes. These will be check ins about how players are being used; their statistical production, typically with points-per reception (PPR) fantasy points; and how sustainable all of that might be. Fantasy data and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• The Ravens number two tight end, Isaiah Likely, kicking off the season with 9 catches, 111 yards, a touchdown, and almost a last-second game-winner on Thursday was the biggest news of the week. The 24 year old had flashed in his first two years whenever All-Pro Mark Andrews was out, but this coming with them playing together means that Likely could have standalone value. With Baltimore's lack of proven wide receiver depth, there was speculation that he could get a good amount of action with more two-TE sets, and that looks like it will be the case.
  
  On that note, let's not panic about Andrews despite only getting 2 targets, catching both for 14 yards. He still played 73.75% of the snaps and ran a route on 74.51% of Lamar Jackson's drop backs, which is comparable to the 76.54% and 84.59% in his full games last year. And let's remember his history against Steve Spagnuolo's double teams (see below) and that he's still getting into shape after missing a chunk of training camp after a car accident last month.
  
  This is more about Likely also being a weapon alongside Andrews. Thursday's star was in on 66.25% of the snaps and 68.63% of the routes while seeing 12 targets for a massive 30% target share. The last part won't stay that high, but first two have room for even more growth. With that amount of playing time and his talent, Likely could easily be the #3 target in this offense along with Andrews and Zay Flowers.
  

  Mark Andrews career vs. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo: pic.twitter.com/QNFVwuoQ3P

  — Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 13, 2024

  
  
• The following night, Jayden Reed going for 4 catches, 171 totals yards and two TDs was the biggest takeaway for me, even if the 70 yard TD came from a broken play. How the Packers would utilize all of their weapons was one of the biggest questions of draft season, and we got a lot of answers across the position groups. At WR, Reed is the guy you want, even if he is mostly limited to the slot in three-receiver sets. He scored 33.1 fantasy points despite his 71.64% snap rate, 73.68% route participation, and 18.75% target share all ranking second among their WRs behind Romeo Doubs (86.57%, 89.47%, and 21.88% for 9 points), and the carry that he scored on continued a trend from last year with his versatility.

NFL Rookie WRs Poised to Contribute in 2024

The NFL returns tonight! And after a little hiatus the last couple of years, I'm bringing back one of my favorite topics that I used to write for The Sports Fan Journal: Which rookie wide receives will contribute the most this season?

There are three factors that I take into consideration for this. The first, and most important, is how productive these prospects were in college. A lot of what I'm looking for is based on JJ Zachariason's research over the years (you should check out his prospect guide on LateRound.com) with market share numbers along with yards per route run (Y/RR) from Pro Football Focus. Next, I'm looking for physical traits shown at the NFL Combine (ideally) or college pro days. Lastly, I'm looking at the situation they landed in, which can be based on the draft capital teams invested in them and/or the amount of available targets there will be. 4for4.com has a very helpful list of targets and air yards that are unaccounted for from last season.

This year's wide receiver class is both strong at the top and deep, which made the order of this list complicated, but hopefully the profiles allow for some nuance with how I'm viewing them.

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. 1st round, 4th overall pick, 1st WR drafted

Imagine taking a Hall of Fame receiver and making his son 3 inches taller and 24 pounds heavier (6'3.25", 209 lbs at the combine) while being arguably being just as fast, and you'll get an idea of how good Marvin Harrison Jr. is. Although he didn't officially test, this year's Biletnikoff Award winner reportedly runs in the high 4.3s with a 3.94 shuttle and 10'8" broad jump, which helped him put up 14 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons.

Harrison's breakout came just a month after he turned 20 as he accounted for 33.33% of Ohio State's receiving touchdowns, 32.57% of their receiving yards, and 28.10% of their receptions in the '22-23 season. Those market shares improved to 53.85% (!!), 35.70%, and 27.35% in the 12 games that he played this past season even with CJ Stroud replaced at quarterback by Kyle McCord, who has since had to transfer to Syracuse. Harrison's efficiency was also outstanding and on the rise with 3.08 and 3.22 yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA) and 3.18 and 3.44 Y/RR (anything over 3 is elite in both metrics).

Harrison is often compared to both AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald, albeit with more speed than both, so it's fitting that he wears the same number as the former (it's pretty cool that he wears #18 in honor of his dad's QB, Peyton Manning) and was drafted to the same team as the latter. Arizona needed a new #1 receiver after the departures of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in back to back years, and they rank 6th in both available targets and available target share from last season. With Kyler Murray another year removed from his torn ACL, the first WR taken in this year's draft will have a more than adequate passer to feed him those vacated looks. I expect big things right out of the gate.

2024 NBA Draft Recap

Happy Draft Day! While I'm constantly updating this tracker for all of the moves being made in the NBA offseason, I wanted to have a separate post just for this event to keep things more organized. In somewhat of a surprise, no players already under contract were traded once things kicked off, so that makes things easier. This will just be a list of what each team did for now since there were a lot of moving around the board. Trade news comes courtesy of tweets from Woj, Shams, and Jake Fischer.

Hawks

#1 Zaccharie Risacher

Traded AJ Griffin for #44...then traded #44 and cash for #43 Nikola Durisic

Wizards

#2 Alexandre Sarr

#14 Carlton "Bub" Carrington

Traded #26 and #51 for #24 Kyshawn George

Rockets

#3 Reed Sheppard

Traded #44 for AJ Griffin

Spurs

#4 Stephon Castle

Traded #8 for a 2031 1st round pick and the right to swap 2030 1st round picks (protected for #1)

Traded #35 for cash and #36 Juan Nunez

#48 Harrison Ingram

Pistons

#5 Ron Holland

Traded #53 for Wendell Moore and #37 Bobi Klintman

Hornets

#6 Tidjane Salaun

#42 KJ Simpson

Trail Blazers

#7 Donovan Clingan

Traded #34 for three 2nd round picks (in 2027, 2029, and 2030)

Traded #40 for #52 and cash...then traded #52 for more cash

7/6 Update: Now that the moratorium is over and the deal is official, the Portland press release is out. Not only was the 52nd pick dealt for just cash as previously reported, but the move down from the 40th pick was also just for financial gain. Alrighty then.

Timberwolves

Traded 2031 1st round pick and a 2030 draft swap (protected for #1) for #8 Rob Dillingham

#27 Terrence Shannon

Traded Wendell Moore and #37 for #53...then traded #53 for #57 and a future 2nd...then traded #57 for cash (per Blake Murphy)

7/6 Update: According to the Minnesota press release reveals that they ended up with a future 2nd round pick and the aforementioned cash considerations as the result of their trade downs.