Saturday, February 8, 2025

2025 NBA Trade Summaries

Now that the dust has settled on the 2025 NBA Trade Deadline, I wanted to take a high-level view of what every team did. The full details of every trade made this season, including how the salaries matched and the particulars of which draft pick was moved are in my tracker. This is just a more succinct look of who or what came in and out, listed in order of championship odds on the DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 8th along with each team's current record.

Only four teams (the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Magic, and Trail Blazers) didn't make a trade, so there is plenty to take in across the league. I also listed which players were cut in corresponding moves with the deals, and signings to fill the vacated roster spots. Finally, any draft compensation listed as "fake" is a pick that isn't likely to convey.

Thunder, 41-9. +230, 1st
In: Daniel Theis (waived), Ajay Mitchell (Two-Way conversion), two 2nd round picks

Out: one 2nd round pick, cash considerations

Celtics, 36-16. +250, 2nd
In: Torrey Craig (free agent signing post-trade), one fake 2nd round pick

Out: Jaden Springer, one 2nd round pick, one fake 2nd round pick

Cavaliers, 42-10. +750, 3rd
In: De'Andre Hunter

Out: Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, two 1st round pick swaps (after previous swaps), three 2nd round picks

Knicks, 34-17. +950, 4th
In: Delon Wright, draft rights to Hugo Besson (58th pick in 2022), cash considerations

Out: Jericho Sims, draft rights to Mathias Lessort (50th pick in 2017)

Nuggets, 33-19. +1500, T-5th
In: None
Out: None

Lakers, 30-19. +1500, T-5th
In: Luka Doncic, Mark Williams, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Shake Milton, Markieff Morris, cash considerations

Out: Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Max Christie, Dalton Knecht, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Cam Reddish, Maxwell Lewis, two one 1st round picks, one 1st round pick swap, four 2nd round picks

2/8 Update: The Lakers announced that the Williams trade has been rescinded “due to failure to satisfy a condition of the trade.”

Grizzlies, 35-16. +3000, T-7th
In: Marvin Bagley, Johnny Davis, two 2nd round picks

Out: Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, one protected 1st round pick

Clippers, 28-23. +3000, T-7th
In: Bogdran Bogdanovic, Drew Eubanks, Patty Mills, MarJon Beauchamp, Ben Simmons (free agent signing post trades), three 2nd round picks

Out: Terance Mann, PJ Tucker, Kevin Porter Jr, Bones Hyland, Mo Bamba, one 2nd round pick, cash considerations

Bucks, 27-23. +3000, T-7th
In: Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, Kevin Porter Jr, one 2nd round pick, one fake 2nd round pick

Out: Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Delon Wright, MarJon Beauchamp, one 1st round pick swap, draft rights to Hugo Besson (58th pick in 2022), cash considerations

Saturday, December 21, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 14-15 2024

As we near the end of the NFL season, injuries and benchings are happening across the league with some interesting fallout for surrounding players. There are also still some developments in the outcome of the many trades that happened this year, so that's where I come in.

Like I always say, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The Jaguars passing attack has seen a lot of change in the second half of the season between Evan Engram missing time with hamstring and labrum injuries, Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone in Week 8, Gabe Davis suffering a torn meniscus in Week 11, and Trevor Lawrence missing time with an injury to his shoulder injury and then a concussion. Just about the only constant has been star rookie Brian Thomas, and even he was affected by a chest injury, although it didn't cost him any games.

    While I was excited about him in my pre-season rookie wide receiver rankings, I wasn't high on him enough because he more than looks the part of an alpha WR. Overall on the season he is averaging 15.33 points while playing 77.47% of Jacksonville's snaps, running a route on 83.76% of the drop backs, and earning a 22.76% target share, and he's really come on of late. It may be due to fellow perimeter threat Davis going down, getting past the chest injury in Week 8 that immediately saw him with three straight target shares below 15%, or just backup quarterback Mac Jones locking onto him. In any case, Thomas is averaging 20.35 with 86.97%/93.17%/30.07% splits from Week 11 on, and he's poised to finish strong in the fantasy semifinals and championship against the Raiders and Titans, respectively.
    Another young player who has stepped up for them is second year tight end Brenton Strange. Last year's 2nd round pick basically assumes Engram's role whenever the veteran is out, and he's looked solid. Between Weeks 2-5 and now 15, Strange is averaging 10.86 points with a 75.83% snap rate, 70.67% route participation, and 16.67% target share in his five games as the primary TE.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

2024-25 NBA Trade Tracker

I'm pretty sure this is the earliest that I've had to start this post, but teams aren't wasting any time with most free agents from this past summer becoming trade eligible on December 15th. Like last year's edition, I'll be adding deals to the top of this post as they happen so that the latest news is easily accessible and including in parentheses who broke the story and when. Future draft pick details are typically from RealGM.com, and the salary figures are from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com with future money color-coded in case of a player option, team option, or not fully guaranteed.


Grizzlies shake things up (Shams, Haynes, and Stein 2/6)

Wizards receive:
Marcus Smart$20,210,285$21,586,856
Colby Jones$2,120,693$2,221,677$2,406,205
Alex Len$2,087,519
2025 Grizzlies 1st round pick (protected for an unknown range)

Kings receive:
Jake LaRavia$3,352,680

Grizzlies receive:
Marvin Bagley III$12,500,000
Johnny Davis$5,291,160
2025 2nd round pick (Worse of Suns or Warriors, via Wizards)
2028 Kings 2nd round pick

I know that Smart has not played much this season, but a team that is currently the #2 seed in the West trading away two players who could be in the playoff rotation for nothing in return floors me. Less than two years ago Memphis traded two 1st rounders and Tyus Jones for Smart, and now they appear to be attaching another 1st to get off of his contract. It hasn't been reported yet which 2nd is coming back, but based on the last one that I think Washington has left this year after complicated swaps, this could be a drop from a pick in the 20's to the 40's. That's similar to the Nurkic trade below but with more certainty of the large gap since it's this year already. 

Since LaRavia's rookie scale option was surprisingly declined, he can only be re-signed for up to the amount of that option, $5,163,127, which makes for a tricky situation, and I guess Memphis is trying to make up for that mistake by getting something for him now. It was a nice opportunistic move by Sacramento to jump in and grab him for just a future 2nd, a backup center who barely plays in Len, and a recent 2nd rounder whom I was hopeful for but hasn't developed in Jones. LaRavia can do a little bit of everything as a backup to either forward spot, and while he hasn't been taking threes at as high of a rate as his first two seasons, he's shooting a career-high 44.4%.

Between this and the Middleton move, the Wizards cut into a lot of their cap space for this offseason, but they could still have enough to be a salary dumping ground for more draft assets again as part of their patient rebuild. Having two vets with so much playoff experience could be good for their young locker room, and as they go into the last years of their contract next season, Washington might even be able to flip them again to contenders if better health is shown.

2/7 Update: Hollinger reports that the 2nd rounder is the worse of Golden State's or Phoenix's, so my estimate above of a 20 spot drop will probably come to fruition. I just don't understand why Memphis couldn't wait until draft night to make this kind of deal when Smart would have played more than 39 total games for them over two seasons. Yes, creating cap room for the summer is important to potentially renegotiate-and-extend Jaren Jackson Jr, but I don't see the benefit of doing it now with nothing coming back to help this current top-2 seed.


Indy adds some breathing room (Shams 2/6)

Raptors receive:
James Wiseman$2,237,691$2,546,675
Cash considerations

Pacers receive:
TBD (likely minimal cash, a fake 2nd, or old draft rights)

Wiseman has unfortunately been out for basically the entire season again, so Indiana is likely paying Toronto for the remainder of his contract and then some in order to have some flexibility to sign someone without going into the tax.

2/7 Update: The Pacers press release confirms that it is a conditional 2026 2nd rounder coming to them, and I'd bet that those conditions are "protected 31-55."


Milwaukee and LA flip former 1st rounders (Shams 2/6)

Bucks receive:
Kevin Porter Jr$2,237,691$2,546,675

Clippers receive:
MarJon Beauchamp$2,733,720

Neither player has been particularly productive, but I wouldn't want to be in the Kevin Porter Jr. business with his legal history, even if it does help out Milwaukee's tax bill a bit. He has been the better player of the two, but Los Angeles probably didn't want to have to deal with that player option for next season.


One more Atlanta move to duck the tax (Shams (2/6)

Rockets receive:
Cody Zeller$3,500,000$3,675,000$3,850,000
Their own 2028 2nd round pick back

Hawks receive:
TBD (likely minimal cash, a fake 2nd, or old draft rights)

This can be viewed in conjunction with the Cavs trade below in order to stay out of the luxury tax. It's more nice work from Houston to use the new MLE rules to absorb salary for draft assets like with the Springer trade. Zeller ended up playing in zero games for Atlanta after being lucky enough to get this contract purely to help match salary in the Dejounte Murray trade.

Update: As anticipated, Kelly Iko reports that Houston is merely sending the draft rights to the last pick way back in 2017, Alpha Kaba, who was coincidentally enough originally chosen by the Hawks.


Atlanta continues re-shuffle (Shams 2/6)

Clippers receive:
Bogdan Bogdanovic$17,260,000$16,020,000$16,020,000
2025 Timberwolves 2nd round pick
2026 Grizzlies 2nd round pick (protected 43-60)
Their own 2027 2nd round pick back

Hawks receive:
Terance Mann$11,423,077$15,500,000$15,500,000$16,000,000
Bones Hyland$4,158,440

I misread Shams' tweet and was looking at my spreadsheets confused about LA sending three 2nd rounders that they don't have before Law Murray reported that the picks were actually going the other way. That's a pretty costly move even with Bogdanovic having a down season at age 32. I'm not sure this is worth it for Atlanta to go a little younger with Mann (28), who just signed an extension in September but has seen his own drop in play, and Hyland (24), who has mostly stagnated since his rookie season. If this was enough to get them out of the tax following the Hunter trade, I guess it would be understandable, but upon second look it's still doesn't get them there. Even if Bogdanovic has completely fallen off the cliff, he only has one more guaranteed year after this, so I like this way more for the Clippers side with the picks.


Cleveland make a move at SF (Stein first, Shams the details 2/6)

Cavaliers receive:
De'Andre Hunter$21,696,429$23,303,571$24,910,714

Hawks receive:
Caris LeVert$16,615,384
Georges Niang$8,500,000$8,200,000
Right to swap 2026 and 2028 1st round picks (after Jazz swaps)
Three 2nd round picks

Before Brian Windhorst provided the details of the pick swaps, this felt a touch pricey for Hunter given the size of his contract, but the trend of Horcruxing picks that you already owe swap rights to is catching on. As things stand with the initial reporting, this would get Cleveland out of the luxury tax and put Atlanta in it, but I would expect a third team such as Detroit to be involved to avoid the latter aspect. Thus, the Cavs kill two birds with one stone this way since Hunter is more of a true forward than LeVert to fit better next to their star guards. Hunter can play up to power forward at times to help replace Niang, as well, so this could end up being a really good fit for the 27 year old who has impressively increased both his three-points attempts (6.7) and accuracy (39.3%) to career-highs.

Assuming the Hawks do have a follow up to this to keep them out of the tax, this move also helps their books next year when Jalen Johnson's big extension kicks in, and that's on top of the nice draft capital return here. LeVert can bring more playmaking than Hunter to help fill in for void left by Johnson's injury, and then they could see about re-signing him depending on any other moves. Niang also helps fill in some of Johnson's minutes as he reunites with Quin Snyder from their Utah days. 

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 11-13 2024

It's crunch time in the fantasy regular season, and the NFL schedule this year made things a little awkward. Perhaps due to Thanksgiving being so late in November, there were six teams on bye in Week 12, none in Week 13, and then six more now in Week 14 with managers making one last push for a playoff spot. Sometimes you have to be Gio-ing Deep into depth charts.

As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • Partly due to the holiday I haven't had a chance to write recently, and what a run it's been for fringe wide receivers with hyphenated names in that span! Since joining the Saints in Week 9, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has only played 58.4% of the snaps, run a route on 72.31% of the drop backs, and earned a 9.91% target share (11 total)...yet he's scored FOUR touchdowns in five games to average 13.93 points. And this comes after only catching three TDs in 33 games over the past two years on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him and zero in 6 games with Josh Allen and the Bills this year before being released.

    Even if you remove the first game due to MVS still adjusting to his new team, he's only been playing 66.12% of the snaps with a 79.17% route participation and 12.05% target share, so it's hard to believe that he'll keep this scoring up. Finding the end zone four times in his last 10 targets has been impressive, though.

  • Similarly, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored eight times in his last eight games, even dating back to before the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I talked about how Calvin Ridley has taken off since then in my last post, and now in six games as a starter, NWI has averaged 14.6 points with a 93.83% snap rate, 95.09% route participation, and 17.98% target share. That kind of usage is a little easier to trust, even if TD regression is bound to hit. Will Levis has been playing better in the four games since coming back from his shoulder injury, averaging 16.75 points, and with a favorable schedule against the Jaguars twice, Colts, and Bengals, this passing game could determine some fantasy titles.

  • Another passing attack that's been on the rise: the Browns with Jameis Winston, thanks in part to huge volume. They lead the league in drop backs per game with 45.92, and in Winston's five starts that number is 48.2 to help him average 21.34 points. And with the Amari Cooper trade also happening right before this stretch, the other pass catchers are absolutely thriving.

    Jerry Jeudy is averaging 21.68 points, which would be WR2 overall on the season, with 91.53%/96.28%/22.69% rates over these five weeks. That's of course inflated by his insane 235 yard #RevengeGame on MNF, the most ever for a player against his former team, but the fact that it came against the Broncos' previously elite defense makes it even more impressive. It's a bit crazy to think that it came on 13 looks that "only" made for a 22.81% target share in this pass happy offense.

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 9-10 2024

Now that we're over halfway through the NFL regular season, we're really seeing roles emerge. Some have been more recent and/or due to a teammate's injury, and looking at these splits is why I write these posts. As usual, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The most obvious case of a new role is Chase Brown becoming a bell cow running back without Zack Moss, as showcased on TNF to start Week 10. I already wrote about the former starting to take over after Week 4, and from Weeks 4 through 8, Brown averaged 14.54 points while playing 47.16% of the snaps, running a route on 35.75% of the drop backs, earning a 9.87% target share, and seeing 60.95% of the RB carries compared to 8.28 points for Moss with 55.52%/48.04%/10.53%/39.05% rates. Then Moss unfortunately sustained a neck injury that's expected to sideline him for the rest of the regular season, and Brown has put up 26.7 and 22.4 points while seeing 100% of the RB carries.

    The Bengals made a minor trade for Khalil Herbert at the deadline, but he fumbled what would've been his only carry in his debut. And while he's a shifty back, Herbert's role with the Bears was similar to Brown's with a lack of a receiving role holding him back. At least, that was how Brown was being used because these these past two games he's set new season-highs in route participation (63.41% and then 75%) and target share (13.51% and then an eye-catching 20.37%). The more experienced Moss was getting those opportunities because he's more reliable in pass protection, but now that the second-year 'back is being trusted there, the sky is the limit.

  • Travis Kelce is another player who has taken off since Week 4, which is when Rashee Rice suffered a brutal knee injury on friendly fire during an interception return after just four plays. In the first three games, the star tight end only averaged 5 points with a 13.95% target share despite an 84.97% snap rate and 85.98% route participation. Starting with the game that Rice was injured in, Kelce's splits are now 17.50 points, a massive 31.37%, 81.32%, and 90.08% over the last six contests.

Friday, November 1, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 7-8 2024

I hope everyone had a fun and safe Halloween! With October officially in the books, we're about halfway through the NFL season already. That means there is a good sample size now for the vast majority of players, and with two weeks to look at since my last post, there are plenty of options to choose from. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • After a ridiculously slow start, the tight end position is starting to come on of late across the league, and veteran Zach Ertz is having an underrated campaign among them. Overall, he's averaging a modest 9.31 points despite a nice role with a 20% target share while running a route on 78.84% of Washington's drop backs despite only being in on 67.42% of the snaps. He's not in there to block much, basically, and over the last three weeks he's been more effective with a little bump in usage to average 13.17 with a 70.79% snap rate, 76.27% route participation, and 22.83% target share.

    Some people were excited about rookie Ben Sinnott after he was drafted 53rd overall as the second TE off the board, but Ertz has has absolutely dominated the receiving role for the Commanders. Sinnott has only played 30.87% of the snaps and run a route on 17.06% of drop backs, which has resulted in a minuscule 0.89% target share. Ironically, he went from not even seeing a single target the first six weeks to scoring a touchdown on his first look...but then he went back 0 targets in Week 8.

  • The first TE taken in this draft was of course Brock Bowers, and he's lived up to the "generational" moniker at the position. Already as a rookie he's second in scoring with a 14.09 average while having a 77.13% snap rate, 75.86% route participation, and massive 24.44% target share. Those numbers are even larger over the last five games, which coincides with the last time that top target Davante Adams (hamstring and trade) and #2 TE Michael Mayer (personal reasons) played. Since Week 4, Bowers' splits are 15 points and 82.67%/82.72%/27.67%...and that's with just one (1) touchdown scored so far. 535 receiving yards usually results in more scores, and if the Raiders offense can get a little more competent to give him more chances, he could challenge for TE1 overall status.

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 6 2024

With this week's post a touch later than usual, I'm going to keep it brief. You know the deal by this point of the season: fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, average depth of target (aDOT), and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • Kenneth Walker III didn't have much success on the ground on TNF (just 32 yards on 14 carries), but he did add 37 yards through the air while setting a career-high with 8 catches. That continues a trend this year with the third-year running back now holding a 14.55% target share per game after that number was below 10% in each of the last two seasons.

    The new Seahawks coaching staff talked about over the offseason about using Walker in the passing game more, and that's come to fruition to give him a much higher floor than before with the 20.9 points last week a great example. Combine that with getting 75% of the RB carries, and you've got an elite RB role.

  • In that same same, George Kittle continued to play like the best tight end in football by hauling in two more touchdowns to give him five on the season already. Scoring in four straight games has him tied for the most TDs in the league despite sitting out Week 3, and he's now averaging 17.26 points per game while the next closest is 13.77.

    This scoring rate may regress to the mean, but Kittle is also just seeing a ton of short-range opportunities with Christian McCaffrey still sidelined. His 7.7 aDOT is slightly below his 7.9 career average and way below last year's 9.9. That could help explain the jump from a 20.18% target share to 23.33% despite lower snap and route shares of 87.13% and 80%. Those are still high-end marks, of course; he's just been banged up a bit more to miss some time. Maybe things change in the second half of the season, but this gap atop the TE rankings had to be called out.