Thursday, June 26, 2025

2025 NBA Draft Summary

This year's NBA draft is officially in the books! With their being so many moves during the event, I like to have this post separate from my offseason tracker to really dig into the moves around the board. While I make sure to give proper reporting credit in that tracker, it gets a lot messier trying to list that here with so many trades and the main news coming from one source earlier before small details come from another. So overall just shoutout to Shams Charania, Jake Fischer, Michael Scotto, Brett Siegel, Jon Krawczynski, and Anthony Slater for providing which future picks and/or draft rights exchanged hands throughout the event.

There will be more thoughts on what each team did added in soon, but for now here is a list of every selection and trade made (in excruciating detail) from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. If you're curious about how teams had some of these picks from previous trades (and boy were there a lot of them), I broke it down in the second half of my lottery reaction post.


Dallas Mavericks
  • #1 Cooper Flagg

San Antonio Spurs
  • #2 Dylan Harper
  • #14 Carter Bryant
  • Traded #38 for the Kings' 2030 2nd round pick and cash considerations

Philadelphia 76ers
  • #3 VJ Edgecombe
  • #35 Johni Broome

Charlotte Hornets
  • #4 Kon Knueppel
  • Traded Mark Williams for #29 Liam McNeeley and a 2029 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, Timberwolves [protected 1-5])
  • #33 Sion James
  • #34 Ryan Kalkbrenner

Utah Jazz
  • #5 Ace Bailey
  • Traded #21, #43, and 2031 and 2032 2nd round picks for #18 Walter Clayton
  • #53 John Tonje

Saturday, June 14, 2025

2025 NBA Offseason Tracker

The buzz around this year's NBA offseason is that the action could happen earlier than usual, so I'm just going to start my annual tracker now. This way I can list any players under contract that get traded during the draft here instead of having those in my separate post about every team's picks. 

The Rockets got things started already with the first extension reached right in the middle of the Finals, so I may as well get started now! As usual, players already under contract have their figures listed based on Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com while salaries in bold italics are my own estimates based on reported numbers and the standard 5% or 8% raises that teams could give. Salaries are also color coded if they are a player option, a team optionnot fully guaranteed, or mutual option. Since this post will be constantly updated throughout the summer, I'll be adding the latest news at the top to be readily available upon revisiting this page. Or if you want to go in chronological order, start at the bottom.

6/30 Update: The NBA officially announced that this year's salary cap is set at $154,647,000 with the tax line at $187,895,000, which is right at the expected 10% growth from last year. That means the the full Mid-Level Exception can have a starting salary of $14,104,000 and can top out at 4 years, $60,647,200; the Taxpayer MLE can start at $5,685,000 and go to 2 years, $11,654,250; the Room MLE can start at $8,781,000 and go to 3 years, $27,660,150; and the Bi-Annual Exception can start at $5,134,000 and go to 2 years, $10,524,700. Notably, Marks reports that the salary cap is only projected to go up by 7% raises instead of the maximum of 10% like this year, which could throw a wrench into team's budgets.


McLaughlin to re-sign with the Spurs: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/9)
Jordan McLaughlin$2,296,274

As a veteran with six years of experience, McLaughlin will make $2,874,436 with the subsidized cap hit above on the one year deal. He didn't play a ton after arriving in San Antonio with De'Aaron Fox, but he's a solid third-string point guard to be a caretaker when called upon (career 4.29 to 1 assist to turnover ratio) and have in the locker room.


Booker extends with the Suns: 2 years, "$145 million" (Shams 7/9)
Devin Booker$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192$70,077,515$75,683,716

I'm putting the $145 million in quotes since there is a lot of projection here since the extension won't kick in until all the way in 2028. The numbers above are based on the salary cap rising by the maximum of 10% in 2027 and 2028 even though the estimate for next summer is only for 7%. If that continues at 7% for the following two years, then this would be worth "only" about $138 million with cap hits of $66.3 and $71.6 million.


Holmgren extends with the Thunder: 5 years, $239 million (Shams 7/9)
Chet Holmgren$13,731,368$41,368,073$44,677,518$47,986,964$51,296,410$54,605,856

After initially Tweeting that it "could reach $250 million," Shams' actual article stated it as $239 million guaranteed with escalators. That is pretty notable because the figures above are Holmgren's 25% max, and "only" having the potential to reach $250 million means that OKC actually fought in negotiations so that even if he makes All-NBA or wins Defensive Player of the Year, it won't bump up to the full 30% number like Banchero below, $289 million. 

The two of them were picked at the top of the 2022 draft, and the #2 pick here has unfortunately been limited just 114 games through three years, which likely contributed to these negotiations. Holmgren provides valuable two-way ability with his shot-blocking, shooting, and ball-handling at either big position when he is on the floor, so this compromise sounds like a fair deal. The #3 pick that year, Jabari Smith, hasn't hit the same heights as them, but these deals really show how much of a bargain the extension that he signed could be. Another Thunder player, Jalen Williams, will be the next max contract to look out for from that class after he was picked #12 in what was considered a surprisingly high pick at the time but has proven to be a steal.


San Antonio picks up another big man (Shams 7/8)

Spurs receive:
Kelly Olynyk$13,445,122

Wizards receive:
Malaki Branham$4,962,033
Blake Wesley$4,726,328
2026 2nd round pick (Worst of 76ers, Mavericks, or Thunder)

With Kornet already added for defense off the bench, San Antonio now adds a more perimeter big in Olynyk, and they could end up as a second unit pairing. This is the third time that the 34 year old has been traded in the last five months, but he's the headliner instead of just matching salary this time. Olynyk's combination of shooting, passing, and size could make him a nice connective piece to a variety of lineups, especially with Wembanyama's versatility.

I used to have hope for both Branham and Wesley from the 2022 draft, but neither guard could consistently find their stride thus far. That made them expendable for the Spurs as they begin to move into the next phase of their rebuild, especially with their recent big investments at the position.

After Washington gave up a couple of their horde of 2nd rounders in the Whitmore trade, they get one back here as they continue to add former 1st rounders still on rookie contracts. It's definitely worth taking a look on these two in exchange for an older player that wasn't in their plans, and who knows, maybe they see something in camp with these two to negotiate a surprise extension. They have a very full roster, though, so other moves would be needed for both to stick around.

Conversely, San Antonio now has three open roster spots, but both teams still have plenty of room below the luxury tax. That will be especially true for Washington if they cut Richaun Holmes' $13,280,737 salary that's only guaranteed for $250,000. It could potentially be useful for trades, but they have plenty of expiring contracts and could be creating a new Trade Exception worth Olynyk's salary that's right above Holmes'. Branham and Wesley fit just about perfectly into their $9.9 million Valanciunas TE that expires in February, so using that here would create a new, larger TE that lasts longer.


Banchero extends with the Magic: 5 years, up to $287 million (Shams 7/7)
Paolo Banchero$15,334,769$41,368,073$44,677,518$47,986,964$51,296,410$54,605,856

I'm going with $239.9 million as the projection here since Banchero needs to make All-NBA next year to bump up from a 25% max to a 30% max. If the former #1 pick and Rookie of the Year does meet the criteria, his cap figures would instead be $49,641,687/$53,613,022/$57,584,357/$61,555,692/$65,527,027. It's the same situation that Franz Wagner faced with them last year, but the fact that Banchero got the last year as a player option is notable. As Shams noted in his Tweet, it's the first such case since 2021 as getting the full five years and the possibility of the 30% max is usually a concession in exchange for not being able to reach free agency after just four years.


Lowry to re-sign with the 76ers: 1 year deal (Shams 7/7)
Kyle Lowry$2,296,274

Philadelphia has Lowry's Non-Bird Rights to give him up to 120% of his minimum, but I'm projecting it is a straight minimum contract again for the 39 year old. As a veteran with 10+ years of experience, he would still earn $3.6 million with this subsidized cap hit, and that difference could matter if the price for Grimes gets high enough in restricted free agency to push them to the Second Apron that they're less than $20 million away from now.


Wiseman to sign (back) with the Pacers: 2 years, minimum contract (Tony East 7/7)
James Wiseman$2,667,948$3,018,158

Wiseman unfortunately tore his Achilles in his first game with Indiana after signing with them last summer and then had to be salary dumped to Toronto at the trade deadline to ensure that they avoided the luxury tax. Hopefully he'll be healthy this time around to find his role in the league as they try to replace Turner in the aggregate with a variety of cheaper big men.


LA, Miami, and Utah combine for surprise trade (Shams 7/7)

Heat receive:
Norman Powell$20,482,758

Clippers receive:
John Collins$26,580,000

Jazz receive:
Kyle Anderson$9,219,512$9,658,536
Kevin Love$4,150,000
2027 Clippers 2nd round pick

Powell is coming off of a career season in which he garnered some All-Star consideration, so Miami basically turning the expiring contracts of Anderson and Love into him is quite the coup. You'd think that they'd be the ones sending out a draft pick, but instead they're just taking on additional salary. That does put them a bit into the luxury tax, but it's close enough that they could get out of it with another move either now or by the trade deadline. They can't really go too much the other way with adding more salary now because this hard-caps them at the First Apron, and this move likely rules them out of the Bradley Beal market once he reaches his Phoenix buyout.

The culmination of this deal is funny because Collins had been linked to Miami this summer but is landing in LA, and both Anderson and Love are former UCLA players who are winding up in Utah instead of LA. This also puts the Clippers into the tax with at least one more roster spot to fill, and they are around $6.7 million away from their First Apron hard cap, which is enough to use the $5.3 million remainder of their MLE. It didn't seem like they wanted to extend Powell at age 32 after his big season tailed off in the second half due to injury, especially since other deals have provided a lot of flexibility to have a lot of cap space next summer depending on how they handle team options and partial guarantees.

The shift from Powell to Collins provides a different look with Kawhi Leonard shifting back to small forward instead of playing up a position. Collins regained his shooting stroke in Utah to convert on 38.2% of his threes while attempting a solid 3.5 per game, so this change shouldn't hurt the spacing too badly. They lose the dynamic element of having another wing like Powell between Leonard and Harden but gain more size and rebounding.

Although Collins is coming off a productive year, this isn't a bad outcome for the Jazz due to his high salary that made trade fits a challenge. Getting a 2nd rounder that comes after the Clippers might be making big changes next summer could be useful, and they didn't have a 2nd in that year before this. Perhaps they can flip these veterans, particularly Anderson, by the trade deadline for more, but if not, they're both solid locker room presences for their young roster. 

As it stands now, Utah could get to around $8.4 million in cap space, and that can rise to about $18.8 million if they waive the non-guaranteed contracts of KJ Martin and Jaden Springer. Maybe they'll be the team that offers a lifeline to the restricted free agent market since Quentin Grimes was reportedly a sticking point with the Knicks in Donovan Mitchell trade talks back in the day. Or as Gozlan noted, they could stay over the cap by using the MLE to absorb salary and instead create a large Trade Exception worth Collins' $26,580,000 salary.


Rollins to re-sign with the Bucks: 3 years, $12 million (Shams 7/6)
Ryan Rollins$3,703,704$4,000,000$4,296,296

Because Rollins joined Milwaukee in the back-half of the '23-24 season, even on a Two-Way, they had Early Bird Rights to give him a deal like this. That means that his $2.3 million cap hold will need to stay on the books when they renounce the rest of their free agents to have the cap space for the Myles Turner signing, and then they can go over the cap to replace that cap hold with this figure. 

The former Warriors 2nd round pick didn't play a ton of minutes when filling in for Lillard as a starter but was productive on both ends of the floor in the time that he received. The player option at the end is a little rich for a player this unproven, but otherwise it's a nice deal for Rollins after he had per 36 averages of 15.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 2.3 turnovers with 48.7%/40.8%/80.9% shooting.


7-team trade wrapping up draft day deals makes NBA history (7/6)

Rockets receive:
Kevin Durant$54,708,609
Clint Capela$6,825,397$7,166,667$7,507,937

Suns receive:
Jalen Green$33,333,333$36,000,000$36,000,000
Dillon Brooks$21,124,110$19,992,727
Daeqwon PlowdenTwo-Way
#10 pick Khaman Maluach
#31 pick Rasheer Fleming
#41 pick Koby Brea
2026 2nd round pick (2nd-best of Mavericks, Thunder, or 76ers)

Lakers receive:
#36 pick Adou Thiero

Timberwolves receive:
#45 pick Rocco Zikarsky
2026 2nd round pick (lesser of Nuggets and Warriors, via Suns)
2032 2nd round pick (better of Rockets and Suns)
Cash considerations (via Lakers)

Nets receive:
2026 2nd round pick (lesser of Clippers and [best of Celtics/Heat/Pacers], via Rockets)
2030 Celtics 2nd round pick (via Rockets)

Warriors receive:
#52 pick Alex Toohey
#59 pick Jahmai Mashack (sent out in separate trade)

Hawks receive:
David Roddy Two-Way
Right to swap 2031 2nd round picks with Rockets
Cash Considerations


Now that the moratorium is over and teams are announcing full details of trades, I figured I'd summarize the first seven-team deal in NBA history since some of the details were in my draft summary and others were spread out in their own individual updates. Aside from not knowing the destinations of the Two-Way contract guys, I was able to put together the details of this behemoth last week when it first had NBA Twitter abuzz. The inclusion of Plowden in particular was just so that Atlanta could "touch" another team as Phoenix immediately waived him.


Landale to sign with the Grizzlies: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/5)
Jock Landale$2,296,274

It's safe to assume that having a Landale addition in the works contributed to the Huff trade from *six* minutes prior. Memphis doesn't have any other exceptions available to sign someone, so this will be a minimum that can come after they complete their other sequence of deals that use up cap space. Landale wasn't going to get anywhere close to his non-guaranteed $8 million salary that was signed to make him a walking Trade Exception, but he will cash in almost $2.5 million as a four-year veteran.


Indiana picks up a big man (Shams first, Scotto the details 7/5)

Pacers receive:
Jay Huff$2,349,578$2,667,944$3,005,085

Grizzlies receive:
2029 Trail Blazers 2nd round pick
Right to swap 2031 2nd round picks with the Pacers

After putting up good numbers in the G League and in small NBA sample sizes, Huff was converted from his Two-Way contract to this cost controlled deal early in the season. He wasn't able to maintain his role in Memphis as their core bigs got established, but he's certainly worth taking a flier on with career per 36 averages of 20.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2 assists, 0.9 steals, and 2.5 blocks with 52%/40.4%/82.4% shooting while attempting 8.8 threes. 

This move won't replace the loss of Turner, but it could provide somewhat of a facsimile in a smaller role. Indiana already owes a 2031 swap to Miami from the trade for another backup center, Thomas Bryant, so giving up secondary rights here isn't much to add to the extra pick from Portland. Coincidentally enough, they will likely be using a Trade Exception from salary dumping a different center, James Wiseman, to take in Huff's contract.

Shedding this salary isn't enough yet for Memphis to clear enough space for Jackson's renegotiation, but it does get them closer. I think they would need Anthony to give up around $4 million in a buyout to ensure the $240 million total number, so it could come down to whether he has a guarantee elsewhere of a team's BAE or Taxpayer MLE. As a five year veteran, his minimum is only about $2.7 million.


Washington picks up Whitmore (Shams first, Robbins the pick details 7/5)

Wizards receive:
Cam Whitmore$3,539,760$5,458,310

Rockets receive:
2026 Bulls 2nd round pick
2029 Kings 2nd round pick

Washington has a ton of 2nd round picks, so from Houston's perspective, at least the two involved here come from teams with shaky management. Still, this is a pretty sweet pickup for the rebuilding team with Whitmore showing a ton of scoring potential while being stuck on a deep squad trying to contend. He hasn't been shy when he got his chances with per 36 averages of 22.3 points, 7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 2 turnovers with 44.9%/35.7%/70.7% through two seasons, and he only turns 21 this week. At 6'5.75", 235 lbs with a 6'8.5" wingspan, Whitmore is a more physical, scoring focused forward than what the Wizards have, and he could fit well with their group of lottery picks: Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, and Alex Sarr. Add in AJ Johnson, Kyshawn George, Will Riley, and Dillon Jones, and they almost have two full lineups of players on rookie scale contracts. I'm guessing that they will use the $5.3 million Johnny Davis Trade Exception to absorb this salary, and they still have plenty of flexibility under the luxury tax.

The Rockets will get a small Trade Exception worth Whitmore's salary out of this, and they were lacking in 2nd rounders after the KD trade. They likely won't have their 1st round pick that's only top-4 protected this year (from the Russell Westbrook trade), so that Bulls pick is a solid get since it could be in the late 30's or early 40's if they're a Play-In team yet again. Washington actually owns Houston's 2029 2nd rounder that they could've returned, but I think the Sacramento pick here will be more valuable based on their cores.

As an aside, I wonder if Durant takes Whitmore's #7 now like with the Nets and (later career) Team USA or sticks with his traditional #35. Since #7 is retired for the Suns, it wasn't available when he went from Brooklyn to Phoenix like it is now with Houston.

7/6 Update: Now that teams are officially announcing trades as official, I learned from the press releases that this ended up a part of Washington's trade with New Orleans with Jordan Poole, Saddiq Bey, CJ McCollum, and Kelly Olynyk. The Wizards were sending out just enough salary in that one to fold in Whitmore and not have to touch any of their exceptions, and in order for the other two teams to "touch," the Rockets got the draft rights to Mojave King. The Pelicans just received those rights last month in their trade with the Pacers, and what I wrote below proved true sooner than expected: "I'm guessing the Pels just wanted something else to throw into future trades when they're required to send anything out like a fake 2nd or cash." 


Wagner to re-sign with the Magic: 1 year, $5 million (Shams 7/4)

Moritz Wagner

$5,000,000


Coming off of a torn ACL, this is a fair deal to keep the older Wagner brother in the fold. If he comes back to play at the level he was at before the injury, Orlando will still have his Bird Rights to give him a more suitable salary. Barring another move to shed salary, it looks like they’ll be a taxpaying team this season for the first time since the Dwight Howard era.


Hayes to re-sign with the Lakers: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 7/3)
Jaxson Hayes$2,296,274

I'm projecting the minimum here given how close they are to the First Apron and the fact that the agent didn't leak any details. As a six year veteran, Hayes will earn about $2.9 million with this cap hit subsidized by the league. 

I've never been a big fan, but he's fine as a backup on the minimum instead of being pressed way out of his depth as a starter due to LA's roster at the end of last year. For someone with his length and athleticism for stuffing Luka lobs, you'd think that he'd have a career defensive rebounding rate of 17.3%. I learned from Shams' Tweet that Hayes is also represented by Duffy like Doncic and Ayton, so you can't dismiss that aspect of keeping the new franchise star happy.

7/6 Update: With deals becoming official today, Marks reports that Hayes surprisingly got 120% of his minimum through Non-Bird Rights. They had Early Bird Rights for him, but I'm guessing LA went this route because using that exception for a higher raise requires a commitment of at least two years. Now they would need to waive one of their players who don't have fully guaranteed contracts, Shake Milton or Jordan Goodwin, if they wanted to use the BAE.


Ayton to sign with the Lakers: 2 years, $16.6 million (Stein/Fischer 7/2)
Deandre Ayton$8,100,000$8,505,000

I'm estimating $8.4 number here based on what LA had left of the MLE after signing LaRavia and Shams saying that Ayton will make $34 million combined this season. Fischer said the other day that Ayton gave up $10 million of his original $35,550,814 salary, so depending on the exact amount LaRavia got, so the math would pretty much checks out.

It was easy to connect the dots to LA once the surprise buyout happened given the widely known need at center for the Lakers and the lack of starting caliber options truly available for what they could offer. It also doesn't hurt that Ayton has the same power agent as Luka Doncic, Bill Duffy, and now it's so funny that the former #1 overall pick will now be teammates with the player who should've been picked ahead of him. 

Since Doncic typically pairs with true lob threats, it's not necessarily a perfect fit given that Ayton prefers to settle for two-point jumpers and infamously goes to the free throw line at a low rate despite making 75.5% for his career. He does inhale boards with a 26.9% percent career defensive rebounding rate, though, so that could go a long way towards addressing the Lakers' issues from these past playoffs. LA is now hard-capped at the First Apron but still has enough flexibility under it to use the BAE for another addition. 

Update: Fischer followed up that it will be a two-year deal with an $8.1 million starting salary, and Scotto added that the second year is a player option, as you'd expect. With a standard 5% raise, that gets to $16.6 million. After Indiana shockingly lost Turner yesterday, there was some thought that they could get involved with the full $14.1 million of the MLE available since they were the ones who gave Ayton the max contract offer sheet back in 2022, but I feel like this was already a done deal.

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Roster Analysis: How PG13 and Sabonis Influenced This Finals Matchup

With the NBA Finals about to start, I want to expand on something I put out there once the Conference Finals matchups were set: both the Thunder and Pacers ended up with their star guards thanks to trading Paul George. And really, Domantas Sabonis also has a key role in all of this, but I haven't seen his name thrown out there as often online by people having the same thought after me. There's also been a graphic going around tracing Oklahoma City's core to Rashard Lewis and the three 1st round picks that Sam Presti wound up with thanks to Kurt Thomas, which I wrote about all the way back in 2012 before their last Finals appearance.
I think going that far into the past is a little bit of a stretch, and it's actually both of these teams that can look back at a series of trades involving the same key pieces that started the path to this point nine years ago. I'll stick with the Thunder to start and will keep using screenshots from my past transaction tracker posts as references since that's kind the whole point of why I write them: to look back on how moves were made. Thankfully, I've used the same usual color key of player options/team options/not fully guaranteed/cap holds all these years.

Draft night 2016: In the wake of losing the Western Conference Finals and just weeks away from Kevin Durant's free agency, Presti decided to make a big change by dealing away Serge Ibaka ahead of his own free agency in 2017. The Orlando Magic, coming off of a 35-47 season and desperate to end their post-Dwight Howard rebuild, traded former #2 pick Victor Oladipo (also going into the last year of his contract) and the draft rights to the #11 pick pick that was used on Sabonis, with Ersan Ilyasova's non-guaranteed contract included to match salary before he was traded at the start of the season. 

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Top NFL Rookie TE for 2025

Teams across the NFL have begun their OTAs, so now is a good time to continue looking at this rookie class. After the running backs that I started with, I'd say that tight ends are the next strongest group this year. To reiterate, this isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

And once again, the basis of what I look for originates from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, although TEs are newer to his model. Based on his research and Ryan Heath's at Fantasy Points, athleticism matters the most at this position compared to running backs and especially compared to wide receivers. I'll be weighing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast) and draft day age before production profiles based on career yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, and then situation comes in at the end.


1. Colston Loveland - 1st round, 10th overall pick, 1st TE drafted - Bears

The week of the draft, I posted in my work's "Hot Take Board" that although Tyler Warren will be drafted first, Loveland has the highest upside of this class and will end up as the TE1...and then Chicago made me look smart by taking Loveland first despite all of the mock drafts and rankings out there. He didn't give us any athleticism measurements but did come in at an impressive 6'5.75" and 248 lbs while only turning 21 just a few weeks before the draft.

That youth makes it even more impressive how efficient Loveland was in a limited Michigan passing attack. As a sophomore, he caught 45 passes for 649 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games for the national champions, and while that might not sound like much at the surface level, that's where YPRR tells more of the story given how little his team threw the ball. His 2.38 mark that year is pretty elite, and it was even better last season, 2.67, when his raw totals were 56 catches, 582 yards, and 5 scores in only 10 games. Overall, he finished with 2.22 YPRR for his career before getting awesome draft capital as the first pick of Ben Johnson's career as a head coach. The hottest offensive coordinator on the market, Johnson ran the show in Detroit when Sam LaPorta shockingly led the position in total points as a rookie two years ago, and while I wouldn't expect that lofty of a season due to the WR target competition, Loveland certainly is in line to pace his 2025 peers.

2. Tyler Warren - 1st round, 14th overall pick, 2nd TE drafted - Colts

Warren was widely expected to be the first TE off the board after he had 104 catches, 1,233 yards, and 8 TDs last year with an additional 218 yards and 4 scores on 26 carries, but I'm not entirely surprised that he fell slightly since that came somewhat out of nowhere as a redshirt senior. As a high school quarterback who joined a position group at Penn State that contained three other NFL players (Pat Freiermuth, Brenton Strange, and Theo Johnson), it's understandable that he was a late bloomer, having just turned 23 this past week compared to Loveland.

It all came together last year for 2.78 YPRR after being at 1.41 and 1.34 the previous two seasons, and that brought his career rate to a strong 1.98. Neither of these top-two TEs gave us athletic testing, but you can see on film how much Warren beasted opponents at 6'5.5" and 256 lbs. The problem in the immediate future is that he landed in Indianapolis, where either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones will be throwing passes to him as a rookie. While I already would've had him as #2 in this class, I think that drops him to a tier by himself after Loveland.

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

2025 Lottery Reaction & the Results of Traded Picks

I say it every year, but lottery is always one of the most fun dates on the NBA calendar...even if I absolutely hated this year's results. Whether it's winning the game of capture the Flagg with the #1 pick this year or a team's pick moving in or out of its crucial protection range, it's amazing to see front offices that meticulously plan and maneuver be at the mercy of random ping pong ball combinations. And after I described last year's edition as absolute chaos, this year's was was pure pandemonium with all of the movement.

As has become custom, here's a rundown of rapid fire reactions to the drawing, followed by a final tally of how all of the previously traded 1st rounders turned out. There have been so many picks dealt over the last handful of years that over half of those league's selections are not with their own teams in each round.
  • To start things off, Dallas aficionado Marc Stein pointed out that this is the first time in Mavericks history that they even moved up at all in the lottery. Them winning the #1 pick was probably the most controversial result possible after stunning the basketball world with the Luka Doncic trade earlier this year...and then continually compounding it by badmouthing his work ethic afterwards and making idiotic statements like not knowing how important he was to the fan base. You hate to see stupidity rewarded, especially when there was just a 1.8% chance of this outcome.

  • Amazingly, Dallas made that trade with a win-now mindset yet gets the long-term gift of Duke forward Cooper Flagg after they ended up only making the Play-In tournament. They finished tied for the 11th-best lottery odds and won a coin flip as the tiebreaker to have 18 of the 1,000 four-digit ping pong ball combinations. Chicago received 17...and the wrong half of the set of numbers that were divided between the two teams, it turns out. 

  • The 10 spot jump tied the 1993 Magic for the highest among lottery winners, and that team famously winning back to back years, despite just a 1.52% chance, prompted the league to change the format. The only other teams to win with longer odds than the Mavs' 1.8% were the 2008 Bulls and 2014 Cavaliers (also back to back winners), who both hit the 1.7% chance of moving up from the #9 pick in the previous system.

  • There's naturally going to be talk of the NBA rigging the system to give Dallas a new star in exchange for putting Luka in the glamour LA market like how New Orleans won the 2019 lottery to set up Anthony Davis going to the Lakers in the first place. Watching the videos of the actual drawing that the league posts every year, though, I have no idea how they would actually do it.



Saturday, May 10, 2025

Top NFL Rookie RBs for 2025

Now that the NFL Draft is firmly in the rearview mirror and my first dynasty league rookie draft is over, I wanted to put together some thoughts on this year's class. It's a total flip from last year's strong group of wide receivers and flawed running backs, so this time I'm starting with the unusually deep class of RBs. This isn't necessarily a ranking for dynasty football but more of an exercise to talk through who I think the top options are and how much they could contribute as rookies.

As often mentioned, the three factors that I take into consideration for this are production profiles, physical traits, and situation. I care most about the first part and have based a lot of what I look for on JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years, so I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's receptions, and his share of the team's total touchdowns in the games that he played. Athleticism does matter a bit more at this position than at WR, though, so players' Speed Score (based on 40 yard dash and weight) and jumps are important. Stats cited are coming from Sports Reference while measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic.


1. Ashton Jeanty - 1st round, 6th overall, 1st RB drafted - Raiders

This is an easy start after Jeanty finished just shy of breaking Barry's Sanders' NCAA record for rushing yards in a season and then got top-10 draft capital to a RB-needy team. Even before Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns as a junior, he was a great prospect based on a sophomore year that saw him have 2.42 total yards per play, 1.85 receiving yards per attempt, a 23.76% reception share, and 41.30% TD share. Anything approaching 2, 0.70, 12%, and 35% as a best season mark in those categories is great, and he shattered each of those as a 19 year old.

Jeanty wasn't asked to do as much through the air last year due to the heavy workload on the ground, but he still had a respectable 8.81% reception share while bumping his TY/P and TD% to 2.82 and 45.45%, respectively. He did measure only 5'8.5" and didn't work out at all in the pre-draft process (because he didn't need to), but he is a solid 211 lbs and obviously showed he can be a workhorse with 397 total touches last year.

RBs getting drafted this highly are practically guaranteed to see large workloads anyway, but both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah are no longer with the Raiders after leading the backfield in touches. Raheem Mostert was signed as a veteran option, but at 33 years old, the speedster will likely only be a change of pace option and not much of a threat to receiving work. Jeanty could be a top-5 fantasy RB immediately and is the 1.01 in rookie drafts.


2. Omarion Hampton - 1st round, 22nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Chargers

In a lot of classes, Hampton would be the RB1 and was the only other 1st rounder at the position thanks to a very complete profile after 1,500+ rushing yards, 15 TDs, and 29+ catches as both a sophomore and junior. He averaged a strong 1.82 TY/P and decent 0.49 RY/PA with solid 9.93% and 29.63% market shares in the first of those years before improving across the board to elite marks of 2.40, 0.99, 17.35%, and 39.53%.

Hampton did this at 5'11.75" and 221 lbs, and even with that size he ran a 4.46 40 yard dash for a great Speed Score of 111.71. He also had a 38" vertical and 10'10" broad jump to further show his explosiveness, so he certainly looks the part of a bell cow 'back. How soon until he gets that role is to be determined because the Chargers are an interesting landing spot. Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman typically like to lean on the running game often, and they've chosen to leave last year's leading rushers, JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, unsigned.

Najee Harris was added instead, but it's only a one-year deal with $5.25 million guaranteed before another possible $4M in incentives, per OverTheCap.com. While both Harris and Hampton are big, well-rounded RBs, the veteran doesn't offer much big-play ability as he infamously doesn't have a run of 40+ yards in his career. Even if it's not top-10 draft capital like Jeanty, 1st round RBs are usually featured, so Hampton could easily be the leader of this committee by season's end ahead of Harris hitting free agency again. I'm also a fan Raheim Sanders, whom they added as a surprising undrafted free agent, and perhaps he could work his way into becoming Hampton's backup a year from now. 

Saturday, April 19, 2025

2025 NBA End of Season Thoughts

It's NBA playoff time! Like last year, I wanted to take a quick look at each matchup based on record, net, offensive, and defensive ratings on NBA.com and also provide a trend or statistical note for each team. Lineup data is from NBA.com while individual splits are from Basketball Reference, and the matchups are listed in order of record.


#1 Thunder (68-14, +12.7, #3 O, #1 D) vs. #8 Grizzlies (48-34, +4.7, #6 O, #11 D)

Oklahoma City's big free agent signing Isaiah Hartenstein missed the start of the season, and then Chet Holmgren suffered his own injury early on, resulting in their ideal starting lineup of those two with my choice for MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort surprisingly only playing 167 total minutes across 14 games together. OKC of course went 10-4 with a +15.0 net rating in those minutes, and overall the two bigs played 316 total minutes together to produce a +13.5 net rating. The Thunder's most used 5-man lineup was much smaller with Cason Wallace in place of Holmgren, and that actually juiced their already elite defense to an unbelievable 101.0 rating for a +15.9 net in 316 minutes. They just have so much versatility with a deep roster and the reigning Coach of the Year pulling the strings, and that combination helped produce the best point differential in NBA history. I think that they're the clear pick to come out of the West.
Memphis was able to advance in the Play-In tournament despite Ja Morant rolling his ankle in the first game, but the injury seemed to catch up to him in the second half en route to shooting just 7-24. Another injury that they have to deal with is rookie gem Jaylen Wells being out with a broken wrist after a scary fall late in the season. The Rookie of the Year contender played a big role as a lengthy defender, and in 543 minutes of him, Morant, and Desmond Bane as a perimeter trio, they had a +9.0 net rating. Scotty Pippen Jr., another breakout find, stepped up as a starter in Wells' place for the two Play-In games, but that's a pretty small group to go against OKC's big guards. Pippen with Morant and Bane had a -1.4 net rating in the regular season, albeit in only 98 minutes, so I wouldn't be surprised if that lineup changes now based on the matchup. However, I'm not sure what to expect out of interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo, who only went 4-5 to finish the season after the surprising dismissal of Taylor Jenkins so late in the season. Between the difference in coaching between these two teams and the fact that the Thunder have won 9 straight versus the Grizzlies, I'm going with a sweep here despite this being a strong #8 seed.

Thunder in 4


#1 Cavaliers (64-18, +9.2, #1 O, #8 D) vs. #8 Heat (37-45, +0.4, #21 O, #9 D)

I wrote in this piece a year ago about Evan Mobley's increase in three pointers to end the year, and he took that a step further this season to average 3.2 attempts while still making 37%. He also bumped up his free throw attempts to 4.3 per game even with spending more time outside the arc, which could be attributed to the new coaching staff utilizing him more as an attacker from the elbows. It's a bit ironic that Kenny Atkinson has a great case for Coach of the Year for improving this team by 16 wins to runaway with the top seed in the East, but he might lose to the coach that he replaced last year. One of the more interesting decisions that he made was to keep Max Strus in the starting lineup after he got up full speed, despite the big trade deadline move for De'Andre Hunter. With the former next to Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, they had a +12.5 net rating in 243 minutes. That rises to +18.5 with Hunter, but that five man combination surprisingly only played a tiny sample of 39 minutes together.

Miami's new starting lineup has almost as small of a sample size with Tyler Herro, Alec Burks, Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Kel'el Ware only playing 46 regular season minutes together...but to the tune of a +36.7 net rating in that limited time. Including the Play-In, that group is now 5-1 together after they made history to be the first #10 seed to make the playoffs. I'm only picking them to take one game here out of faith in Erik Spoelstra and their battle-tested veterans, though, because this group lacks consistent offense, as seen in the 4th quarter of the second Play-In game that they seemingly had in control like the first. That's partly why they might be my favorite of the rumored Kevin Durant destinations this summer, and they have up to three 1st round picks that they could potentially include with the matching salary of Terry Rozier, Duncan Robinson, and Kyle Anderson in the last guaranteed years of their contracts. Young players like Ware, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic, or Pelle Larsson could be mixed in to improve the offer and break up the salaries as a third team might need to be included to avoid Apron restrictions, but in any case, I can see a path here that makes sense once the Heat inevitably flame out in the playoffs with the talent disparity. 

Cavs in 5


#2 Celtics (61-21, +9.4, #2 O, #4 D) vs. #7 Magic (41-41, -0.2, #27 O, #2 D)

Boston's traditional starting lineup of Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis only played 357 total minutes together over 24 games (going 18-6), and amazingly, it had a 0.0 net rating. This comes after that same group posted a +11.0 net rating over 623 minutes last season, though, so I'm not too worried. The ability to plug in Al Horford and/or potential Sixth Man of the Year Payton Pritchard into various configurations to either play big or small gives their top-seven rotation valuable versatility, and adding in Sam Hauser's shooting and Luke Kornet's size helps round out their rotation nicely. Brown's lingering knee issue is a bit concerning, but both him and Tatum improving their career-highs in assists from 3.6 to 4.5 and 4.9 to 6.0, respectively, was an underrated storyline of Boston's season. I still think they're the team to beat in the East after they were mostly able to coast in their title defense and still reached 61 wins.

It may have surprised folks tuning into the Play-In game to see journeyman Cory Joseph as the starting point guard for Orlando with Jalen Suggs injured, but they went 11-4 down the stretch with him in the lineup before resting players on the last day. His numbers won't blow anyone away with 6.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.4 turnovers in just 22.2 minutes with 43.1%/38.2%/83.3% shooting, but that caretaker 3+D role fit with their main starters (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and Wendell Carter Jr) surprisingly well to post a +11.5 net rating in 216 minutes. I just don't trust their offense enough to keep up with Boston's firepower for a full series, so even though they were a tough matchup to win two of the three meetings this season, I'm going with a gentleman's sweep.

Celtics in 5