Saturday, December 17, 2011

Week 15 Quick Picks

Niners/Steelers is only the 4th meeting of 10 win teams w/ .750 winning % on MNF. SF has been in all 4.
Boy does time fly. It's Week 15 already! Here are my quick picks.
Overall: 110-98

Jacksonville +11.5 @ Atlanta: Bad decision by me here. I thought coach Mike Smith would miss the game and the Falcons would be distraught over it, so I took the points. I was quite wrong...let's move on.

Dallas -6.5 @ Tampa Bay: Our first Saturday game of the season! Unfortunately, the Bucs are in a bad funk and are ready to fire their coach. The Cowboys are hungry for a win after these last couple of weeks of field goal mishaps. I like the Over in this one.

Buffalo -0.5 vs. Miami: These teams are basically even, so I'm picking the Bills simply because they are the home team and due for a win. 

Seattle +4.5 @ Chicago: The Seahawks have some momentum now and are playing well on defense. This is gonna be a tight one, and I think Seattle wins outright.

Cincinnati -4.5 @ St. Louis: Even with their banged up defense, the Bengals aren't gonna give up many points to this Rams team. A.J. Green is gonna have a field day against this St. Louis secondary.

Green Bay -13.5 @ Kansas City: I'm taking the Packers no matter the spread until they show any signs of slowing up. Losing Greg Jennings for a couple of weeks hurts, but the Chiefs are clearly outmatched, even with Kyle Orton finally replacing the inept Tyler Palko.

Tennessee -6.5 @ Indianapolis: Conversely, I'm picking against the Colts if it's around a touchdown. I especially like this if you can tease it down to just a point. The Titans' D isn't going to up much here.

New Orleans -7.5 @ Minnesota: I'm actually a bit weary of this one needing an 8 point win. Yes, Drew Brees should tear up this weak secondary, but they are on the road and due for a letdown. Alas, the return of Adrian Peterson should fire the Vikes up, but it won't be enough against a definitively superior team.

New York -7.5 vs. Washington: The Giants are at home, but this spread is a bit high, too. The Redskins played a surprisingly close game last week and should be able to score here, but Eli Manning won't let the G-men lose. I like the Over in this one, too.

Carolina +6.5 @ Houston: T.J. Yates pulled off the amazing comeback last week, but the Texans are vulnerable. With defensive coordinator Wade Phillips dealing with some health issues, I actually like the Panthers getting the upset in a shootout (read: Over).

Detroit -1.5 @ Oakland: The Raiders are in a slump while the Lions have been pretty shaky lately. Calvin Johnson scored his first career touchdown in Oakland, and I think he's gonna have a big day here for a Detroit win.

Arizona -6.5 vs Cleveland: The Cardinals have won 5 out of 6 thanks to their young defense stepping up, and now they get a Seneca Wallace led Browns team that struggles to score in the first place. Sometimes it's that simple.

New England -6.5 @ Denver: Finally a real test for Tim Tebow, as we'll see if he can magically will his defense to slow down Tom Brady enough to allow another late comeback. I'm guessing no, but Tom Brady has had some bad experiences in Denver, where he suffered his first career playoff lost. He'll get his revenge here.

Philadelphia -2.5 vs. NY Jets: I don't know how the Eagles are favored in this one, but I'm picking them anyway. Just a gut feeling about these two clubs.

Baltimore -2.5 @ San Diego: a great test for Joe Flacco and the Ravens, as they struggle on the road. I think they show out in Prime Time and get a big W.

San Francisco -1.5 vs. Pittsburgh: The marquee matchup of two of the greatest franchises in the league on MNF. The Steelers need this win to keep pace for the division lead and potentially the top playoff seed. The Niners need this win to keep pace with the Saints for the #2 seed because that's a big difference from the 3 seed. I think the Niners get a big play on special teams that gives them the edge in a low scoring affair.

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