Last Week: 10-6
Overall Season: 103-89
Pittsburgh -13.5 vs. Cleveland: I went with the vastly superior team at home, but I should have known the points were too much. Or predicted that the Steelers would drop like flies and get stuff on a goal line stand and thus not cover.
Atlanta -2.5 @ Carolina: Falcons bounce back with a win here for their playoff run since the Panthers defense can't stop anyone. Cam Newton might be able to pull this out for them through the air, but Atlanta's run defense should slow them down enough.
Cincinnati -3.5 vs. Houston: The Leon Hall injury has really hurt Cincy's defense, but they're at home and against an Andre Johnson-less Texans. I actually like T.J. Yates from his UNC days, but he's being thrown into the fire way too soon.
Detroit -7.5 vs. Minnesota: The Lions are starting to fall apart, but remember that their last two games have been against the Packers and Saints. Now they're at home and both Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson are questionable.
Tennessee +3.5 vs. New Orleans: The Saints have been flying high lately, and I can see them getting complacent this week and falling on the road to a peaking Titans team now that Chris Johnson is red hot.
Indianapolis +16.5 @ Baltimore: It was a fluke that the Colts made the Patriots game as close as it was, but it proves that in these situations the points are just too high. The Ravens should slaughter them with Ray Rice, but you can't count out some garbage time scores closing the gap.
NY Jets -8.5 vs. Kansas City: The Jets weren't great last week against the mere Redskins, but Tyler Palko looked horrible against the Bears. The Chiefs' defense won't go out without a fight, and rookie Justin Houston is finally providing a pass rush threat opposite Tamba Hali, but it likely won't be enough.
Philadelphia +3.5 @ Miami: With the momentum of Michael Vick's return, the rested Eagles bring the Dolphin's back down to earth.
New England -7.5 @ Washington: I like to think Bill Belichick had a nice chuckle when preparing his defensive gameplan for Rex Grossman.
Tampa Bay -1.5 @ Jacksonville: The Jaguars will have a lot of success on the ground against this defense, but I think the Bucs finally stop their losing streak since their the more talented team.
Denver -3.5 vs. Chicago: I do have a feeling the Broncos are due for a letdown, and the Bears defense alone almost won their game last week, but I have to make this pick because these teams are in two different places right now with their QB situations.
San Francisco -3.5 @ Arizona: If the Niners could ever convert in the red zone, they'd be near unbeatable. I think they finally start to do so in a tune up for the Steelers game next week and the playoffs after that.
San Diego -6.5 vs. Buffalo: the injuries to the offensive line is going to really hurt Philip Rivers, and thus, the Chargers, some weeks. This isn't one of those weeks.
Oakland +11.5 @ Green Bay: Could the Raiders really be the team to hand the Packers their first loss and at home, no less? No, but they could make it closer than you think. In the end, though, Aaron Rodgers just has this ability to make drives look easy like he did in the final 58 seconds against the Giants. Sometimes it helps when his receivers make extraordinary catches like Jordy Nelson did on the sidelines, but he is clearly the best in the game right now.
NY Giants +3.5 @ Dallas: The Giants are not losing five in a row. Not in this game that is so pivotal in the division. Their pass rush must get to Tony Romo.
Seatle -6.5 vs. St. Louis: Will anyone really watch this pathetic Monday Night Football game? All the St. Louis fans are still going to be too in shock at the loss of Albert Pujols.