Saturday, September 28, 2024

Digging into the Knicks-Wolves Blockbuster

Knicks receive:
Karl-Anthony Towns$49,205,800$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192
Draft rights to 2023 #31 pick James Nnjai

Timberwolves receive:
Julius Randle$28,939,680$30,935,520
Donte DiVincenzo$11,445,000$11,990,000$12,535,000
Keita Bates-Diop$2,654,644
2025 Pistons 1st round pick (via Knicks, protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:
DaQuan Jeffries$2,425,404$2,743,776$3,080,917
Charlie Brown Jr$2,237,692$2,546,673$2,874,432
Duane Washington Jr$2,162,607$2,349,576$2,667,944
2025 2nd round pick (Lesser of Nuggets or 76ers, via Wolves)
2026 Warriors 2nd round pick (via Knicks)
2031 Knicks 2nd
$7.2 million in cash considerations

Talk about a Friday night surprise from Shams. I'm still adding updates to the Offseason Tracker, but a stunning blockbuster at this point in the calendar deserves its own post.

On the one hand, there have been some signs that each of these teams could make this type of move. Everyone's been anticipating Minnesota making a cost-cutting move due to extensions for Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels all kicking in this year, particularly with their ownership situation in flux; there have been rumors of NY's interest in Towns ever since his former agent at CAA, Leon Rose, took over basketball operations in 2020; and there's been a lot of speculation about Randle's future ahead of his potential free agency next summer, especially after the team's success while he was injured. But on the other hand, there were not any recent hints of this major of a move for either side as training camps are set to get underway.

Saturday, September 21, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2024

I say it every year, but Week 2 is always one of the most interesting slates of the NFL season since you start to see what might be real from the opener. It's still a small sample size that we're dealing with, but these were some of the observations that stood out most to me through two games. Once again, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The TNF game during into a blowout after Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another scary concussion, but there were a couple of other key notes from the Dolphins offense, as well. The most obvious is that with Raheem Mostert sitting out, De'Von Achane became an absolute workhorse. After being in a rotation as a rookie, even when Mostert was unavailable, Achane was given 22 carries (75.86% of the running back rushes) and 7 targets for a 18.92% target share. He also saw 7 targets (19.44%) in Week 1, so he has a 19.18% target share on the season so far with 26.25 fantasy points per game. Achane has lined up as a receiver on 25 of his 85 (29.41%) of his snaps so far, so he could finish as the #3 passing option in this offense throughout the year.Perhaps the main competition for that role is new "tight end" Jonnu Smith, who also saw 7 targets on Thursday and turned them into 11.3 points. I put that position in quotes because he's basically playing as a big wide receiver, having lined up in the slot or out wide on 45 of his 52 snaps (86.54%) on the season. In Week 2, he was only in on 32 plays for a 41.56% snap rate, but he ran a route on 31 of them for a 68.89% route participation, and through two weeks he's run 48 routes in those 52 snaps (92.31%). So he's on the field to do one thing, and he did it at a much higher frequency than in Week 1 when he only had a 28.17% snap rate, 38.64% route participation, and 5.56% target share. I'm definitely keeping an eye on whether those rates continue to rise.

  • Another new addition to a team is Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, and in Week 2, we saw more of the more open passing attack that was expected like in his previous offenses at the University of Washington. Perhaps it was due to Kenneth Walker being injured, but they increased their drop backs from 28 to 48. The new game plan benefited Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most as he saw 16 looks for a 37.21% target share after just 2 for 8% with the limited optortunities in the opener. His snap rates (79.10% and 82.86%) and route participation (89.29% and 91.67%) have held steady each week, but the team's different approach led to a jump from 3.9 points to 23.7.

Friday, September 13, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2024

The NFL season officially started last week, and so did my football posts after a busy NBA offseason. That was more of a long-term outlook for this year's rookie WR class, and now I'm getting back into my week to week usage notes. These will be check ins about how players are being used; their statistical production, typically with points-per reception (PPR) fantasy points; and how sustainable all of that might be. Fantasy data and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

  • The Ravens number two tight end, Isaiah Likely, kicking off the season with 9 catches, 111 yards, a touchdown, and almost a last-second game-winner on Thursday was the biggest news of the week. The 24 year old had flashed in his first two years whenever All-Pro Mark Andrews was out, but this coming with them playing together means that Likely could have standalone value. With Baltimore's lack of proven wide receiver depth, there was speculation that he could get a good amount of action with more two-TE sets, and that looks like it will be the case.

    On that note, let's not panic about Andrews despite only getting 2 targets, catching both for 14 yards. He still played 73.75% of the snaps and ran a route on 74.51% of Lamar Jackson's drop backs, which is comparable to the 76.54% and 84.59% in his full games last year. And let's remember his history against Steve Spagnuolo's double teams (see below) and that he's still getting into shape after missing a chunk of training camp after a car accident last month.

    This is more about Likely also being a weapon alongside Andrews. Thursday's star was in on 66.25% of the snaps and 68.63% of the routes while seeing 12 targets for a massive 30% target share. The last part won't stay that high, but first two have room for even more growth. With that amount of playing time and his talent, Likely could easily be the #3 target in this offense along with Andrews and Zay Flowers.

  • The following night, Jayden Reed going for 4 catches, 171 totals yards and two TDs was the biggest takeaway for me, even if the 70 yard TD came from a broken play. How the Packers would utilize all of their weapons was one of the biggest questions of draft season, and we got a lot of answers across the position groups. At WR, Reed is the guy you want, even if he is mostly limited to the slot in three-receiver sets. He scored 33.1 fantasy points despite his 71.64% snap rate, 73.68% route participation, and 18.75% target share all ranking second among their WRs behind Romeo Doubs (86.57%, 89.47%, and 21.88% for 9 points), and the carry that he scored on continued a trend from last year with his versatility.

Thursday, September 5, 2024

NFL Rookie WRs Poised to Contribute in 2024

The NFL returns tonight! And after a little hiatus the last couple of years, I'm bringing back one of my favorite topics that I used to write for The Sports Fan Journal: Which rookie wide receives will contribute the most this season?

There are three factors that I take into consideration for this. The first, and most important, is how productive these prospects were in college. A lot of what I'm looking for is based on JJ Zachariason's research over the years (you should check out his prospect guide on LateRound.com) with market share numbers along with yards per route run (Y/RR) from Pro Football Focus. Next, I'm looking for physical traits shown at the NFL Combine (ideally) or college pro days. Lastly, I'm looking at the situation they landed in, which can be based on the draft capital teams invested in them and/or the amount of available targets there will be. 4for4.com has a very helpful list of targets and air yards that are unaccounted for from last season.

This year's wide receiver class is both strong at the top and deep, which made the order of this list complicated, but hopefully the profiles allow for some nuance with how I'm viewing them.

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. 1st round, 4th overall pick, 1st WR drafted

Imagine taking a Hall of Fame receiver and making his son 3 inches taller and 24 pounds heavier (6'3.25", 209 lbs at the combine) while being arguably being just as fast, and you'll get an idea of how good Marvin Harrison Jr. is. Although he didn't officially test, this year's Biletnikoff Award winner reportedly runs in the high 4.3s with a 3.94 shuttle and 10'8" broad jump, which helped him put up 14 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons.

Harrison's breakout came just a month after he turned 20 as he accounted for 33.33% of Ohio State's receiving touchdowns, 32.57% of their receiving yards, and 28.10% of their receptions in the '22-23 season. Those market shares improved to 53.85% (!!), 35.70%, and 27.35% in the 12 games that he played this past season even with CJ Stroud replaced at quarterback by Kyle McCord, who has since had to transfer to Syracuse. Harrison's efficiency was also outstanding and on the rise with 3.08 and 3.22 yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA) and 3.18 and 3.44 Y/RR (anything over 3 is elite in both metrics).

Harrison is often compared to both AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald, albeit with more speed than both, so it's fitting that he wears the same number as the former (it's pretty cool that he wears #18 in honor of his dad's QB, Peyton Manning) and was drafted to the same team as the latter. Arizona needed a new #1 receiver after the departures of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in back to back years, and they rank 6th in both available targets and available target share from last season. With Kyler Murray another year removed from his torn ACL, the first WR taken in this year's draft will have a more than adequate passer to feed him those vacated looks. I expect big things right out of the gate.

Wednesday, June 26, 2024

2024 NBA Draft Recap

Happy Draft Day! While I'm constantly updating this tracker for all of the moves being made in the NBA offseason, I wanted to have a separate post just for this event to keep things more organized. In somewhat of a surprise, no players already under contract were traded once things kicked off, so that makes things easier. This will just be a list of what each team did for now since there were a lot of moving around the board. Trade news comes courtesy of tweets from Woj, Shams, and Jake Fischer.

Hawks
#1 Zaccharie Risacher
Traded AJ Griffin for #44...then traded #44 and cash for #43 Nikola Durisic


Wizards
#2 Alexandre Sarr
#14 Carlton "Bub" Carrington
Traded #26 and #51 for #24 Kyshawn George


Rockets
#3 Reed Sheppard
Traded #44 for AJ Griffin


Spurs
#4 Stephon Castle
Traded #8 for a 2031 1st round pick and the right to swap 2030 1st round picks (protected for #1)
Traded #35 for cash and #36 Juan Nunez
#48 Harrison Ingram


Pistons
#5 Ron Holland
Traded #53 for Wendell Moore and #37 Bobi Klintman


Hornets
#6 Tidjane Salaun
#42 KJ Simpson


Trail Blazers
#7 Donovan Clingan
Traded #34 for three 2nd round picks (in 2027, 2029, and 2030)
Traded #40 for #52 and cash...then traded #52 for more cash

7/6 Update: Now that the moratorium is over and the deal is official, the Portland press release is out. Not only was the 52nd pick dealt for just cash as previously reported, but the move down from the 40th pick was also just for financial gain. Alrighty then.

Timberwolves
Traded 2031 1st round pick and a 2030 draft swap (protected for #1) for #8 Rob Dillingham
#27 Terrence Shannon
Traded Wendell Moore and #37 for #53...then traded #53 for #57 and a future 2nd...then traded #57 for cash (per Blake Murphy)

7/6 Update: According to the Minnesota press release reveals that they ended up with a future 2nd round pick and the aforementioned cash considerations as the result of their trade downs.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

2024 NBA Offseason Tracker

Well that was quick. The new CBA now allows teams to negotiate with their own free agents the day after the Finals ends, and now after seemingly a one day grace period for the Boston Celtics to enjoy their well-deserved championship, we have our first deal! That's created this tracker earlier than usual, which makes things easier in a way to include draft week trades, and I'll just include draft pick thoughts in a separate post. 6/26 Update: You can find what every team did during the draft HERE.

As usual with these type of posts, I'll be updating constantly to make this your one-stop shop for all of the deals, with the newest transactions at the top. I'll make note of the date when whoever broke the news tweeted it along with my projections of the salaries based on reported contract details, and "Command F" is definitely helpful to find specific players as the deals pour in. Figures for existing contracts in trades usually come from Keith Smith on Spotrac, and stats are from Basketball Reference, RealGM, or the NBA's advanced stats page. The visual key consists of player options/team options/not fully guaranteed

6/30 Update: The NBA announced that the official salary cap came in slightly lower than projected: $140,588,00 with the luxury tax at $170,814,000, the First Apron $178,132,000, and the Second Apron $188,931,000. With next year's cap projected to be $154,647,000, I've updated max contract figures below based on this. Now back to the deals:


Kings sign McDermott (Shams 10/16)
Doug McDermott$2,087,519

It's unclear what kind of guarantee the veteran shooter received, but given this point of the calendar, I'm guessing that it's not just a camp deal. Perhaps a partial guarantee to provide flexibility for a midseason trade would make sense after Sacramento opened up space with the trade earlier in the week.

10/17 Update: Scotto confirmed my suspicion that McDermott got a partial guarantee that's more than just a typical camp deal with $750,000 locked in.

Sacramento sheds salary on San Antonio (Shams 10/14)

Spurs receive:
Jalen McDaniels$4,741,800
2031 2nd round pick
Cash consideration

Kings receive:
2025 2nd round pick (protected 31-55)

Scotto added the details on the picks as well as cash involved to help cover McDaniels' salary, which reportedly will be waived. After taking him as part of the Vezenkov salary dump, now Sacramento gives themselves a little more breathing room under the luxury tax. San Antonio isn't close to having to worry about that, so they used part of the Room MLE as a trade exception to add yet another future pick.

Magic extend Carter: 3 years, $59 million (Shams 10/7)
Wendell Carter Jr.$11,950,000$10,850,000$18,209,877$19,666,667$21,123,457

WCJ will now always be a part of NBA reporting history as Shams' first scoop since switching to ESPN. Since Carter's previous extension was so cheap, this is the most that he could receive in an extension with the starting salary 140% of the estimated average salary.

10/8 Update: Scotto adds that the last year is a team option.

Pelicans extend Alvarado: 2 years: $9 million (Shams 9/28)
Jose Alvarado$1,988,598$4,500,000$4,500,000

The former undrafted free agent and Two-Way player gets a safe guarantee with the player option to potentially make a lot more if he can stay healthy. This could be structured as $4,326,923 and $4,673,077, but it would make sense to have a flat rate for Alvarado to get a little more right away before opting out of this cheap deal.

Minnesota and New York pull off stunning swap of Kentucky big men (Shams 9/27)

Knicks receive:
Karl-Anthony Towns$49,205,800$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192

Timberwolves receive:
Julius Randle$28,939,680$30,935,520
Donte DiVincenzo$11,445,000$11,990,000$12,535,000
Keita Bates-Diop$2,654,644
2025 Pistons 1st round pick (protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:
TBD draft compensation to absorb salary, including DaQuan Jeffries

I originally started putting in a summary here, but this big of a deal deserved its own post.

Clippers extend Mann: 3 years, $47 million (Shams 9/27)
Terence Mann$11,423,077$15,500,000$15,666,667$16,000,000

Entering the last year of his bargain 2 year, $22 million extension, Mann could've received as much as $51.8 million over this same period, so it seems he's taking the guaranteed offer on the table now again. Marks reports that the first year starts at $15.5 million, so I'm guessing that each year will be relatively flat instead of the standard 8% raises for a $14,506,173/$15,666,667/$16,827,160 structure. And as Bontemps pointed out, Mann is still trade eligible immediately since this wasn't too high of an extension.

76ers extend Embiid: 3 years, $193 million (Shams 9/20)
Joel Embiid$51,415,938$55,224,526$59,539,095$64,302,223$69,065,350

Embiid had a $59,033,114 player option for the '26-'27 season that will be declined and replaced by the first year of this extension that's projected to be for slightly more. That's based on the maximum 10% cap increases the next two years to about $170.1 million and then taking 35% of that as a max player with 10+ years of experience.

Knicks sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/15)
Marcus Morris$2,087,519

Like with Shamet and Okeke, I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed deal to battle for New York's last roster spot. Morris has a more proven track record, though, so I could be wrong with the Knicks just willing to eat a guaranteed salary at final cuts.

Cavs re-sign Okorro: 3 years, $38 $33 million (Woj 9/14)
Isaac Okoro$11,728,395$12,666,667$13,604,938

Being a restricted free agent likely tempered Okoro's market, so keeping this a short deal at the relatively low average value could allow him to hit unrestricted free agency sooner. It looks like Cleveland will be a luxury tax team now barring a trade to shed a little bit of salary.

Update: Chris Fedor adds that it's actually for $33 million with an additional $5 million in incentives. which means that the starting salary will definitely be below what Okoro's $11,828,974 qualifying offer was. The Cavs really used the hammer of restricted free agency here to get a good deal.

Isaac Okoro$10,185,185$11,000,000$11,814,815

Knicks sign Shamet: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 9/14)
Landry Shamet$2,087,519

I'm guessing that this is non-guaranteed as he battles for the last roster spot since New York already has 14 guaranteed deals.

Update: The Knicks officially announced the signing as an Exhibit 9 contract, which is non-guaranteed.

Mavs re-sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/7)
Markieff Morris$2,087,519

The veteran forward's return gives an already deep Dallas roster another front court option and should round out the option. AJ Lawson's non-guaranteed deal could be in danger now to get them down to 15 players by cut day.

Nuggets (finally) extend Murray: 4 years, $208 million (Woj 9/7)
Jamal Murray$36,016,200$46,394,100$50,105,628$53,817,156$57,528,684

I already had a post for this way back on June 27th when Shams reported that the two sides were close, but I'm putting it here again now that's a done deal with the updated numbers. As expected, it's a touch lower than what I originally had since the cap came in slightly lower than projections.

Clippers extend Zubac: 3 years, $58.6 million (Woj 8/30)
Ivica Zubac$11,743,210$18,086,420$19,533,333$20,980,247

After L.A. used a team option to leverage a bargain extension for Zubac last time, this is much more in line with the current center market.

Pacers extend McConnell: 4 years, $45 million (Woj 8/30)
T.J. McConnell$9,300,000$10,044,643$10,848,214$11,651,786$12,455,357

Going four years for a player who is already 32 is a little questionable, but it could've been to help keep the annual salaries lower after McConnell's great last couple of years.

9/3 Update: Marks reports that the third year is only partially guaranteed for $5 million and that the last year is a team option that then becomes only partially guaranteed for $5 million if picked up. 

Warriors extend Curry: 1 year, $62.6 million (Woj 8/29)
Stephen Curry$55,761,216$59,606,817$62,587,158

This 5% raise for just one year was the most that Golden State could offer the franchise icon due to the Over-38 rule. After a lot of the fanbase has complained about them not going all-in to try to contend with Curry still on the roster, this is a show of good trust between the two sides going forward.

Celtics sign Walker: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/28)
Lonnie Walker$2,087,519

We're at the point in the offseason where solid veterans have to settle for non-guaranteed minimums, and these updates might be coming to an end. If Boston decides to go with a full 15 man roster, Walker would be a some nice perimeter depth.

Pelcians sign Green: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/20)
Javonte Green$2,087,519

Green has been an underrated wing that could help fill out New Orleans' bench well, and Andrew Lopez reports that this deal is fully guaranteed.

76ers sign Yabusele: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams that it was close, then Scotto 8/18)
Guerschon Yabusele$2,087,519

The 16th pick in the 2016 draft has been generating buzz since his standout Olympics performance, where he averaged 14 points in 23:19 minutes as the second-leading scorer for France...and had one of the highlights of the tournament in the finals.
It was up in the air if Yabusele would try to make it back to the NBA since he reportedly has a $2.5 million buyout with Real Madrid, and Philadelphia can only contribute $825,000 towards that, per John Hollinger. That means that most of this season's salary will go towards the buyout since Yabusele only lasted two seasons in his first NBA stint to qualify for the salary above, but the 28 year old could increase his future earning potential by filling a hole for this new-look Sixers squad. While I think the "French Draymond" moniker from when he was drafted isn't that accurate, Yabusele can bring some tough defense and more size (6'8", 260 lbs) than their other forward options. He's shot 41% (345 of 841) on threes across all competitions the past three seasons in Europe, and if he can come close to that with the NBA line, he'll have much more staying power this time around.

Jazz sign Mills: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/14)
Patty Mills$2,087,519

As with other veterans of 10+ years, he'll earn $3,303,771 with the subsidized cap hit.

Jazz sign Mykhailiuk: 4 yeras, $15 million (Woj 8/9)
Svi Mykhailiuk$3,488,372$3,662,791$3,837,209$4,011,628

Going this many years for such a low cost (his minimum as a six-year vet would've been about $12.3 million) is a big odd, so I'm fairly confident that Utah gave him a slight bump this year to have control of his future with non-guaranteed future seasons.

8/12 Update: Keith Smith confirms my suspicions with two non-guaranteed years followed by a team option like I had above.

Spurs sign Flynn: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/7)
Malachi Flynn$2,087,519

San Antonio already has 15 players signed, so I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed minimum.

Jazz to renegotiate-and-extend Markkanen: 5 years, $238 million; $220 million in new money (Shams 8/6 Woj 8/7)
Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$39,143,476$42,274,954$45,406,433$48,537,911

Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$43,720,568$47,218,213$50,715,859$54,213,504

This won't be agreed to until tomorrow or later so that Markkanen can ensure that he won't be traded this season since there will be a six-month waiting period once the deal is signed, and the Trade Deadline is February 6th. In the article from Shams, Slater, and Tony Jones, they reported that the "deal is projected to be worth upwards of $200 million over five years." A 30% max contract that another team could offer Markkanen next summer is expected to be for $199,494,630 over four years based on the rising cap, so that would seem to be the floor for his extension. My projection above is based on Utah using $24,131,856 of their cap space to bump up his current $18,044,544 salary to his max for this season, and then spreading the remaining $175,362,774 over the next four years. 

If it does end up being "only" in that $200 million range for total money as the report indicates, that would be a surprising value for the Jazz. Besides the $199.5 million from other teams, they could offer Markkanen as much as $269 million over five years if he hits free agency. A renegotiation-and-extension in this way would mean that he only goes on the books over the next four seasons for somewhere around that $175 million number above, after the $24.13 million raise this year. Being able to use their cap space to provide their star with the security of the massive deal now rather than waiting for free agency seems to have provided a ton of flexibility in negotiations.

8/7 Update: Well me playing around with the potential numbers based on The Athletic's report turned out to be a huge waste of time because Woj now reports that it's $220 million in new money for a total of $238 million, which makes way more sense. That means that after the $24.13 million raise this year, Markkanen will have about $195.87 million left on his extension over the next four seasons, so the Jazz will have his cap hits at a hair under his max over that span. This is obviously more than the offer that I said other teams could give him next year, and he will earn about $12.15 million more over these five years than if he just re-signed on a four-year deal next summer.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

2024 NBA Lottery Reaction & the Result of Traded Picks

This is always one of my favorite posts to write every year because of my well-documented fondness for the NBA Lottery, and the absolute chaos of this year's drawing is a great example why. Is it considered possibly the weakest, most wide-open class since the infamous 2013 draft? Yes. Was it still awesome to see the unexpected Jazz logo at #10 to indicate that two teams made large jumps into the top-4? Also yes.

It's always fun to talk through the implications of the random bounces of ping pong balls, so here are my main reactionary thoughts followed by a breakdown of how each previously traded pick turned out.

  • After ESPN's Elle Duncan pointed out in the buildup that the Atlanta Hawks had never won the #1 pick, their small 3% chance of moving from the #10 pick to the top spot came through. They're the biggest long shot winner in 10 years, when the Cavaliers had a 1.7% chance of moving from 9th to 1st, and it is the second-largest jump in lottery history, behind only the 1993 Magic's rise from the 11 spot despite the low 1.52% odds. Shoot, they're the first ever team from the Play-In Tournament to move up in the lottery!

    Really, this is what the updated format intended when the NBA flattened the odds of the 2019 draft to limit tanking. The Hawks' 3% was obviously low, but it was still higher than some prior wins like the Bulls in '08 (1.7%) or the Cavs in '11 (2.8%) and the aforementioned '14, even though Atlanta finished higher in the standings. Now a new door of possibilities is open for a team that had fallen onto the "treadmill of mediocrity" with three straight years in the Play-In, and it will be fascinating to see how they approach it.