What I'm Watching on Wildcard Weekend

I'm back from a much longer hiatus than I intended, and I'm proud to say that I have made my long awaited return as a graduate of UCSB. I got too bogged down by schoolwork (and the holidays), but there's no way I'm complaining about the school that gave me the greatest 3+ years of my life. Perhaps now you'll even notice the improved writing of a UCSB graduate as I go over some quick thoughts about this weekend's slate of playoff games.

Just kidding; I've always been this good.

HOUSTON over Cincinnati
What I'm watching: How the Texans' secondary assign their coverage. It's well noted how much of an A.J. Green fan I am, so it's no surprise that I believe he could win this game by himself against the likes of Jonathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson. They tend to each stick to their side of the field, so expect a safety to give help to whichever side Green lines up on a play to play basis. Joseph was a shutdown corner in his first year in Houston, but injuries have slowed him down this season. Jackson has been merely solid as a former first round pick out of Alabama while Brandon Harris, a 2011 second round pick, might be over matched in the slot against the slippery Andrew Hawkins. Thus, the soon-to-be Defensive Player of the Year, J.J. Watt, will have to consistently generate pressure in order to help his team win this key matchup.

Prediction: Texans 24, Bengals 20

Houston's secondary will need help from Watt like last year's playoff game.

1st Quarter NFL Power Rankings

Now that every team has played at least four games, it feels like a good time for some Power Rankings a quarter into the season.

1. Falcons 5-0: The defense looks sharp, and Matt Ryan is running the no huddle offense beautifully. If "The Mattural," as Rich Eisen coined him on his podcast, can keep up the heroics in close games, this team will be a tough out in the playoffs.

Ryan's connection to Roddy White on their GW drive was one of the best big time throws I've ever seen.

2012 NFL Football Part 3: AFC

Editing note: Although this is being posted after the season has already started, it is still serving as team opinions from before season and has not been influenced by games already played.

If you missed Part 2.

AFC East

1. New England Patriots 13-3
2. Buffalo Bills 10-6

A lot of receivers may be lost on Revis Island, but the best defensive player in the league can't help this offense.

2012 Football Preview Part 2: NFC

I went through my playoff picks right here, so now here's what I think of the rest of the NFC teams.

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
2. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

3. New York Giants 9-7: So about those picks from last year...I was relatively spot on with most calls, but I picked the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants to come in fourth place in a competitive division. Yikes. I liked the moves they made to improve their team but thought that their rash of preseason injuries would take too big of a toll on them. Instead, no team took hold of the division, they snuck into the playoffs again, and caught fire with Eli Manning becoming the most clutch quarterback in the league. So why am I picking them to miss the playoffs this year? Well, they're shorthanded again, and I think their luck runs the other way this year.
   Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham left for San Francisco in free agency, and although I think Victor Cruz is a good receiver, I don't think he'll be nearly as good as last season. Much like with Manningham a couple of years ago, they got another steal in the second round with Rueben Randle. He'll have some growing pains trying to offset the loss of Manningham as a rookie, and Hakeem Nicks should return to his studly ways after some foot issues in training camp. Martellus Bennet was a nice replacement signing at tight end, but some shuffling along the offensive line could cause some blocking trouble for Manning and runningbacks Ahmad Bradshaw and David Wilson, their first round pick. Across from Justin Tuck at defensive end, Jason Pierre-Paul could make this defense a strong unit just by himself. He's that good, and he may have to be in order to make up for a banged up secondary if this team is going to defend its title.

JPP might have to put the world on his shoulders.

Summer's Over: It's Football Time!

After a two month hiatus, I'm back and ready for some football. My last post was before the NBA Draft, and my recap of that and the rest of basketball's offseason moves has been on hold during this busy summer. After working with the national champions of summer league baseball, the Santa Barbara Foresters, I went to Las Vegas for my 21st birthday and later to Reno for my dad's birthday with some time back home in between. We explored various sports books looking for the best football odds, and here's what I put my money on:

• -110 that the Colts will win OVER 5 games: $50 to win $45.45
• +105 that the Niners will win OVER 10 games: $50 to win $52.50
• +550 that the Niners will win the Super Bowl: $35 to win $192.50 
• +220 that the Niners will win @ Green Bay in Week 1: $15 to win $33

I feel very good about the value I got in these bets, with the latter two obviously being ambitious and less likely, but after seeing the odds at some other sports books, I know that I got good deals. If I am being honest with myself, I think that the real Super Bowl favorites, the Packers, will win it all, but where's the fun in that? That's what my season preview is for. (For the most part, I was spot on in my picks last year with one glaring omission, but we'll get to that later...)

Came close to betting this SB matchup, but is that my pick?

Part 1: The Big Picture

(Parts 2 and 3 will go team by team through the conferences)

NBA Big Board 2012

Finally, my favorite draft class in a long time is here. Due to the lockout truncated season, the Finals feel like they JUST happened (because they did), but here we are. There are all kinds of rumors out there, and a number of trades have already occurred this week as a precursor to what looks like a busy draft day. It's nearly impossible to predict things in a mock draft with so much mystery looming, so here is my simple big board of prospects--66 was a nice, random number to cut it off at to try to include everyone who could be drafted. I will provide explanation after the draft with the overall draft analysis, but here are my my previous rankings with descriptions and initial lottery mock draft (you can also click the "NBA Draft" tag for more).

1. Kentucky PF Anthony Davis
2. Kentucky SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
3. Florida SG Bradley Beal
4. North Carolina SF Harrison Barnes
5. Kansas PF Thomas Robinson
6. UConn C Andre Drummond
7. UConn SG Jeremy Lamb
8. Weber St. PG Damian Lillard
9. North Carolina PF John Henson
10. Syracuse SG Dion Waiters 
11. Illinois C Myers Leonard
12. North Carolina C Tyler Zeller 
13. North Carolina PG Kendall Marshall
14. Kentucky PF Terrence Jones
15. Baylor PF Perry Jones III
16. Washington SG Terrence Ross
17. Duke SG Austin Rivers
18. Ohio St. PF Jared Sullinger
19. Baylor SF Quincy Miller
20. St. John's SF Moe Harkless
21. Miss St. PF Arnett Moultrie
22. Washington PG Tony Wroten
23. Kentucky PG Marquis Teague
24. St. Bonaventure PF Andrew Nicholson
25. France SG Evan Fournier
26. Iowa St. PF Royce White
27. Kentucky SG Doron Lamb
28. Vanderbilt SF Jeff Taylor
29. Memphis SG Will Barton
30. Syracuse C Fab Melo
31. Vanderbilt C Festus Ezeli
32. UCSB SG Orlando Johnson
33. Vanderbilt SG John Jenkins
34. Kansas PG Tyshawn Taylor
35. Kentucky SF Darius Miller
36. Michigan St. PF Draymond Green 
37. New Mexico PF Drew Gordon
38. Marquette SG Darius Johnson-Odom 
39. Oregon St. SG Jared Cunningham 
40. Tennessee St SG Kevin Murphy 
41. Turkey PF Furkan Aldemir
42. Marquette SF Jae Crowder 
43. Texas A&M SF Khris Middleton
44. Iona PG Scott Machado
45. Duke C Miles Plumlee
46. Czech SG  Tomas Satoransky 
47. Ohio St. SG William Buford
48. Syracuse SF Kris Joseph
49. Xavier PG Tu Holloway
50. Norfolk St. C Kyle O'Quinn
51. Missouri SG Kim English 
52. West Virginia PF Kevin Jones
53. Florida St. C Bernard James
54. Alabama PF JaMychal Green 
55. Virginia PF Mike Scott
56. Georgetown SF Hollis Thompson
57. Alabama SG Tony Mitchell 
58. Georgetown C Henry Sims 
59. Gonzaga C Robert Sacre 
60. Missouri SG Marcus Denmon
61. Purdue SF Robbie Hummel
62. Long Beach St. PG Casper Ware
63. Missouri PF Ricardo Ratliffe
64. Baylor PF Quincy Acy 
65. Wisconsin PG Jordan Taylor
66. LSU C Justin Hamilton

Initial Reaction to Last Night's Lottery Results

We should have know. Well, more specifically, I should have known better than to not bet on the NBA-owned Hornets in the lottery (to be fair, Saints owner Tom Benson should officially become the owner over the summer). [EDIT: I should add that while suspect, I am not one to believe in conspiracy theories. Zach Lowe's excellent coverage of the lottery process make it pretty clear that it is practically impossible to rig the results.] When looking at the betting odds for the lottery, I went with the 8/1 Kings because they almost always drop in the lottery process, and I thought they were due for some positive energy to help harbor their arena situation. Plus, an all-Kentucky frontcourt of Anthony Davis with DeMarcus Cousins would have been incredible. I stared long and hard at the 5/1 odds for the Hornets as a secondary bet but didn't pull the trigger. Alas, it's over now, and the lottery order is now set after the unusual occurrence of just one team jumping up while the rest held to form. Let's mock:

1. Hornets: Kentucky F/C Anthony Davis: A no-brainer that should help the team's chances of re-signing restricted free agent Eric Gordon if they open up the wallet. It's unclear whether or not the team will re-sign Chris Kaman and/or trade Emeka Okafor, but Davis would fit with either of them as well as rookie Gustavo Ayon, who showed to be a solid rotation big man.

The 'Brow is excited to go back to the city where he won the  National Championship.