Saturday, December 21, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 14-15 2024

As we near the end of the NFL season, injuries and benchings are happening across the league with some interesting fallout for surrounding players. There are also still some developments in the outcome of the many trades that happened this year, so that's where I come in.

Like I always say, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The Jaguars passing attack has seen a lot of change in the second half of the season between Evan Engram missing time with hamstring and labrum injuries, Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone in Week 8, Gabe Davis suffering a torn meniscus in Week 11, and Trevor Lawrence missing time with an injury to his shoulder injury and then a concussion. Just about the only constant has been star rookie Brian Thomas, and even he was affected by a chest injury, although it didn't cost him any games.

    While I was excited about him in my pre-season rookie wide receiver rankings, I wasn't high on him enough because he more than looks the part of an alpha WR. Overall on the season he is averaging 15.33 points while playing 77.47% of Jacksonville's snaps, running a route on 83.76% of the drop backs, and earning a 22.76% target share, and he's really come on of late. It may be due to fellow perimeter threat Davis going down, getting past the chest injury in Week 8 that immediately saw him with three straight target shares below 15%, or just backup quarterback Mac Jones locking onto him. In any case, Thomas is averaging 20.35 with 86.97%/93.17%/30.07% splits from Week 11 on, and he's poised to finish strong in the fantasy semifinals and championship against the Raiders and Titans, respectively.
    Another young player who has stepped up for them is second year tight end Brenton Strange. Last year's 2nd round pick basically assumes Engram's role whenever the veteran is out, and he's looked solid. Between Weeks 2-5 and now 15, Strange is averaging 10.86 points with a 75.83% snap rate, 70.67% route participation, and 16.67% target share in his five games as the primary TE.

Saturday, December 14, 2024

2024-25 NBA Trade Tracker

I'm pretty sure this is the earliest that I've had to start this post, but teams aren't wasting any time with most free agents from this past summer becoming trade eligible on December 15th. Like last year's edition, I'll be adding deals to the top of this post as they happen so that the latest news is easily accessible and including in parentheses who broke the story and when. Future draft pick details are typically from RealGM.com, and the salary figures are from Keith Smith's work at Spotrac.com with future money color-coded in case of a player option, team option, or not fully guaranteed.

Utah bets on upside (Shams 1/21)

Jazz receive:
2031 Suns 1st round pick

Suns receive:
2025 1st round pick (Worse of Cavaliers or Wolves)
2027 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, or Wolves)
2029 1st round pick (Worst of Cavaliers, Jazz, or Wolves)


Phoenix wastes no time adding big man help (Shams 1/15)

Suns receive:
Nick Richards$5,000,000$5,000,000
2025 2nd round pick (Worse of Nuggets or 76ers)

Hornets receive:
Josh Okogie$8,250,000$7,750,000
2026 Nuggets 2nd round pick
2031 Nuggets 2nd round pick
2031 Suns 2nd round pick

DLo returns to another former team (Shams 12/29)

Lakers receive:
Dorian Finney-Smith$14,922,980$15,378,480
Shake Milton$2,875,000$3,000,000$3,287,406

Nets receive:
D'Angelo Russell$18,692,307
Maxwell Lewis$1,891,857$2,221,677$2,406,205
2027 (conditional), 2030, and 2031 Lakers 2nd round picks

Golden State replaces injured guard (Shams 12/14)

Warriors receive:
Dennis Schroder$13,025,250
2025 Heat 2nd round pick (protected 31-37)

Nets receive:
De'Anthony Melton$12,822,000
Reece Beekman (Two-Way)
2026 and 2028 Hawks 2nd round picks
2029 Warriors 2nd round pick

Another trade that's pretty much reported as done and will be finalized once Melton is trade-eligible tomorrow. He was a great fit for the Warriors as a 3+D guard who can act as an ancillary creator but unfortunately suffered a partial ACL tear last month, so his one-year contract at the MLE level became an obvious trade piece. Golden State being hard-capped at the First Apron limits their trade flexibility, so having to only give up 2nd round draft capital to add the proven secondary playmaker that they need is a really solid move. I would guess that the '26 and '28 Hawks 2nd rounders that they own are a part of this and that Shams' later report of getting a 2nd back will be a protected pick, possibly Miami's (protected 31-37) this year.

12/15 Update: Anthony Slater confirms that it is exactly the two Hawks picks and protected Heat pick involved as I speculated, along with the inclusion of Beekman that I mentioned below from Fischer's report. The terms are now updated above.

I think Schroder has been overrated a bit in the past, but he is more than qualified to be a backup point guard who can also close games next to the star like when he finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting back with the Thunder. He was backing up Chris Paul then, and I would guess that he steps into the role that CP3 had with the Warriors last year, funnily enough. Schroder's 6'7.75" wingspan and outside shooting improving to 37.8% over the past two seasons (34.4% for his career) makes him easier to fit into different lineup combinations, and he could provide the type of spark they need after a 2-7 stretch following their 12-3 start to the season.


It does feel like a little bit of a light return for Brooklyn given the year that Schroder is having, but a cynic might say that he was hurting their chances of tanking too much. At the very least, they're adding to their cache of draft picks instead of simply losing a free agent at the end of the season. Jake Fischer did mention in his report that rookie point guard Reece Beekman could also be heading their way in a rare instance of a player traded while on a Two-Way contract. He was considered a 2nd round prospect at various points of his Virginia career for his defensive prowess, so that could be a sneaky addition to the Nets' return. Beekman is averaging 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks through his first nine G League games, and he could be in line for some point guard minutes at the next level with Schroder out the door.

Indiana adds center depth (Shams 12/13)

Pacers receive:
Thomas Bryant$2,087,519

Heat receive:
2031 2nd round pick swap

This was reported on Friday but can't become official until Sunday since Bryant opted out and re-signed at a slightly lower number over the summer to help lower Miami's luxury tax bill. Now they lower it even more by shipping him out and replacing him with a pro-rated minimum salary, which is understandable considering he's only played 115 total minutes this year after just 441 last season.

Bryant has bounced around a lot in recent years but has had flashes of being a stretch big (35.5% career 3P%) who still helps on the glass. This could be a nice homecoming for the former Hoosier since Indiana has unbelievably lost both James Wiseman and Isaiah Jackson to torn Achilles tendons and need another backup big. The addition comes at a pretty minimal cost, and they'll still be able to stay out of the luxury tax.

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 11-13 2024

It's crunch time in the fantasy regular season, and the NFL schedule this year made things a little awkward. Perhaps due to Thanksgiving being so late in November, there were six teams on bye in Week 12, none in Week 13, and then six more now in Week 14 with managers making one last push for a playoff spot. Sometimes you have to be Gio-ing Deep into depth charts.

As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • Partly due to the holiday I haven't had a chance to write recently, and what a run it's been for fringe wide receivers with hyphenated names in that span! Since joining the Saints in Week 9, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has only played 58.4% of the snaps, run a route on 72.31% of the drop backs, and earned a 9.91% target share (11 total)...yet he's scored FOUR touchdowns in five games to average 13.93 points. And this comes after only catching three TDs in 33 games over the past two years on the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him and zero in 6 games with Josh Allen and the Bills this year before being released.

    Even if you remove the first game due to MVS still adjusting to his new team, he's only been playing 66.12% of the snaps with a 79.17% route participation and 12.05% target share, so it's hard to believe that he'll keep this scoring up. Finding the end zone four times in his last 10 targets has been impressive, though.

  • Similarly, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored eight times in his last eight games, even dating back to before the DeAndre Hopkins trade. I talked about how Calvin Ridley has taken off since then in my last post, and now in six games as a starter, NWI has averaged 14.6 points with a 93.83% snap rate, 95.09% route participation, and 17.98% target share. That kind of usage is a little easier to trust, even if TD regression is bound to hit. Will Levis has been playing better in the four games since coming back from his shoulder injury, averaging 16.75 points, and with a favorable schedule against the Jaguars twice, Colts, and Bengals, this passing game could determine some fantasy titles.

  • Another passing attack that's been on the rise: the Browns with Jameis Winston, thanks in part to huge volume. They lead the league in drop backs per game with 45.92, and in Winston's five starts that number is 48.2 to help him average 21.34 points. And with the Amari Cooper trade also happening right before this stretch, the other pass catchers are absolutely thriving.

    Jerry Jeudy is averaging 21.68 points, which would be WR2 overall on the season, with 91.53%/96.28%/22.69% rates over these five weeks. That's of course inflated by his insane 235 yard #RevengeGame on MNF, the most ever for a player against his former team, but the fact that it came against the Broncos' previously elite defense makes it even more impressive. It's a bit crazy to think that it came on 13 looks that "only" made for a 22.81% target share in this pass happy offense.