Friday, October 11, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 5 2024

Well, last week's post ended up cursing the Minnesota guys while Dontayvion Wicks couldn't cash in on more great usage (28% target share!), but Josh Downs and Chase Brown continued to earn more work. A few of the guys for this week are on bye, so they won't have go through those kind of swings for at least one weekend.
As always when looking at notable stats across the league, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • One of the biggest stories in the NFL right now is that the #3 overall pick, Drake Maye, is making his first start for the Patriots. The situation around him doesn't project to be great due to the offensive line, but I'm curious to see how their 2nd rounder, Ja'Lynn Polk, does with this change. After mixing in as a part-time player the first three weeks, Polk has played 91.13% of the snaps, ran a route on 92.11% of the drop backs, and earned a 20.97% target share over the last two games. He's only been able to turn that into 8.3 total points, but if he gets 6 or 7 targets again from Maye rather than Jacoby Brissett, maybe better results are on the way. I dug into Polk as a prospect right before the season here.

    Staying in New England, head coach Jerod Mayo made a big deal last week about Rhamondre Stevenson no longer starting due to fumbling in each of the first four games. While Antonio Gibson technically got the start, Stevenson still played the exact same 28 snaps (46.67%) as Gibson and led the team with 12 carries (66.67% of the running back share). Gibson ran a route on 43.24% of drop backs compared to 32.43%, but he only finished with one target to Stevenson's 4 (13.33% target share). Stevenson did get ruled out this morning due to a foot injury, so we'll see how much of the workload Gibson carries this week.
Read more »
Posted by at No comments:
Labels:

Friday, October 4, 2024

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 3-4 2024

After a quick detour to the NBA side last week due to the stunning trade that went down, Gio-ing Deep is back with more usage notes around the NFL! The sample size is getting a little larger now, so there are more takeaways that you can start to believe in from the data. As always, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
  • The 4-0 Vikings are one of the best surprises of the league so far, thanks in large part to Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones being tremendous free agent signings. The former leads the league in touchdown passes with 11 despite being just 22nd in pass attempts, and his 8.8 yards per attempt ranks 2nd in the league behind only the player he backed up last season, Brock Purdy. Darnold smartly joined a team that runs a similar scheme to what he was in last year, so he's hit the ground running with the kind of efficiency that the 49ers typically have. His current 10.4% touchdown percentage is bound to regress (league average is usually in the 4-5% range), but he can continue to lead a good offense, especially with Jordan Addison back now and TJ Hockenson opening up his practice window to return from injury. Combine that with Darnold's underrated rushing ability, and he could be a viable fantasy quarterback all season.
    Jones is already proving to be one of the best fantasy values of the year now that he's fully healthy again. He hasn't run for a TD since the opener and only added one more through the air so far, yet he's a top-10 running back (18.1 points per game) thanks to his typical efficiency and strong receiving role. After only getting 2 targets in Week 1 due to the blowout nature of the game, Jones has had at least 5 targets every week since, and he has a 19.19% target share on the season. Seeing 65.42% of the snaps and and 68.82% of the RB carries aren't quite as strong of rates, but those did bump up this past week to 82.35% and 88%. Minnesota might've simply been trying to feed him in his return to Green Bay for a #revengegame, but it at least shows that the volume potential is there.

  • On the other side of that game, Dontayvion Wicks had the breakout game that his truthers have been waiting for since best ball draft szn with 5 catches for 78 yards and 2 TDs. There is important context that the Packers had to throw the ball 54 times as they fell behind 28-0, and Christian Watson only played 9 snaps due to unfortunately suffering a high-ankle sprain on one of Jordan Love's three interceptions.
Read more »
Posted by at No comments:
Labels:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)