2025 Pistons 1st round pick (via Knicks, protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)
Hornets receive:
DaQuan Jeffries
$2,425,404
$2,743,776
$3,080,917
Charlie Brown Jr
$2,237,692
$2,546,673
$2,874,432
Duane Washington Jr
$2,162,607
$2,349,576
$2,667,944
2025 2nd round pick (Lesser of Nuggets or 76ers, via Wolves)
2026 Warriors 2nd round pick (via Knicks)
2031 Knicks 2nd
$7.2 million in cash considerations
Talk about a Friday night surprise from Shams. I'm still adding updates to the Offseason Tracker, but a stunning blockbuster at this point in the calendar deserves its own post.
On the one hand, there have been some signs that each of these teams could make this type of move. Everyone's been anticipating Minnesota making a cost-cutting move due to extensions for Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels all kicking in this year, particularly with their ownership situation in flux; there have been rumors of NY's interest in Towns ever since his former agent at CAA, Leon Rose, took over basketball operations in 2020; and there's been a lot of speculation about Randle's future ahead of his potential free agency next summer, especially after the team's success while he was injured. But on the other hand, there were not any recent hints of this major of a move for either side as training camps are set to get underway.
I say it every year, but Week 2 is always one of the most interesting slates of the NFL season since you start to see what might be real from the opener. It's still a small sample size that we're dealing with, but these were some of the observations that stood out most to me through two games. Once again, fantasy data (PPR format) and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
The TNF game during into a blowout after Tua Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another scary concussion, but there were a couple of other key notes from the Dolphins offense, as well. The most obvious is that with Raheem Mostert sitting out, De'Von Achane became an absolute workhorse. After being in a rotation as a rookie, even when Mostert was unavailable, Achane was given 22 carries (75.86% of the running back rushes) and 7 targets for a 18.92% target share. He also saw 7 targets (19.44%) in Week 1, so he has a 19.18% target share on the season so far with 26.25 fantasy points per game. Achane has lined up as a receiver on 25 of his 85 (29.41%) of his snaps so far, so he could finish as the #3 passing option in this offense throughout the year.
Perhaps the main competition for that role is new "tight end" Jonnu Smith, who also saw 7 targets on Thursday and turned them into 11.3 points. I put that position in quotes because he's basically playing as a big wide receiver, having lined up in the slot or out wide on 45 of his 52 snaps (86.54%) on the season. In Week 2, he was only in on 32 plays for a 41.56% snap rate, but he ran a route on 31 of them for a 68.89% route participation, and through two weeks he's run 48 routes in those 52 snaps (92.31%). So he's on the field to do one thing, and he did it at a much higher frequency than in Week 1 when he only had a 28.17% snap rate, 38.64% route participation, and 5.56% target share. I'm definitely keeping an eye on whether those rates continue to rise.
Another new addition to a team is Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubbs, and in Week 2, we saw more of the more open passing attack that was expected like in his previous offenses at the University of Washington. Perhaps it was due to Kenneth Walker being injured, but they increased their drop backs from 28 to 48. The new game plan benefited Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most as he saw 16 looks for a 37.21% target share after just 2 for 8% with the limited optortunities in the opener. His snap rates (79.10% and 82.86%) and route participation (89.29% and 91.67%) have held steady each week, but the team's different approach led to a jump from 3.9 points to 23.7.
The NFL season officially started last week, and so did my football posts after a busy NBA offseason. That was more of a long-term outlook for this year's rookie WR class, and now I'm getting back into my week to week usage notes. These will be check ins about how players are being used; their statistical production, typically with points-per reception (PPR) fantasy points; and how sustainable all of that might be. Fantasy data and standard stats are from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, positional alignment, and average depth of target (aDOT) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
The Ravens number two tight end, Isaiah Likely,kicking off the season with 9 catches, 111 yards, a touchdown, and almost a last-second game-winner on Thursday was the biggest news of the week. The 24 year old had flashed in his first two years whenever All-Pro Mark Andrews was out, but this coming with them playing together means that Likely could have standalone value. With Baltimore's lack of proven wide receiver depth, there was speculation that he could get a good amount of action with more two-TE sets, and that looks like it will be the case.
On that note, let's not panic about Andrews despite only getting 2 targets, catching both for 14 yards. He still played 73.75% of the snaps and ran a route on 74.51% of Lamar Jackson's drop backs, which is comparable to the 76.54% and 84.59% in his full games last year. And let's remember his history against Steve Spagnuolo's double teams (see below) and that he's still getting into shape after missing a chunk of training camp after a car accident last month.
This is more about Likely also being a weapon alongside Andrews. Thursday's star was in on 66.25% of the snaps and 68.63% of the routes while seeing 12 targets for a massive 30% target share. The last part won't stay that high, but first two have room for even more growth. With that amount of playing time and his talent, Likely could easily be the #3 target in this offense along with Andrews and Zay Flowers.
The following night, Jayden Reed going for 4 catches, 171 totals yards and two TDs was the biggest takeaway for me, even if the 70 yard TD came from a broken play. How the Packers would utilize all of their weapons was one of the biggest questions of draft season, and we got a lot of answers across the position groups. At WR, Reed is the guy you want, even if he is mostly limited to the slot in three-receiver sets. He scored 33.1 fantasy points despite his 71.64% snap rate, 73.68% route participation, and 18.75% target share all ranking second among their WRs behind Romeo Doubs (86.57%, 89.47%, and 21.88% for 9 points), and the carry that he scored on continued a trend from last year with his versatility.
The NFL returns tonight! And after a little hiatus the last couple of years, I'm bringing back one of my favorite topics that I used to write for The Sports Fan Journal: Which rookie wide receives will contribute the most this season?
There are three factors that I take into consideration for this. The first, and most important, is how productive these prospects were in college. A lot of what I'm looking for is based on JJ Zachariason's research over the years (you should check out his prospect guide on LateRound.com) with market share numbers along with yards per route run (Y/RR) from Pro Football Focus. Next, I'm looking for physical traits shown at the NFL Combine (ideally) or college pro days. Lastly, I'm looking at the situation they landed in, which can be based on the draft capital teams invested in them and/or the amount of available targets there will be. 4for4.com has a very helpful list of targets and air yards that are unaccounted for from last season.
This year's wide receiver class is both strong at the top and deep, which made the order of this list complicated, but hopefully the profiles allow for some nuance with how I'm viewing them.
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. 1st round, 4th overall pick, 1st WR drafted
Imagine taking a Hall of Fame receiver and making his son 3 inches taller and 24 pounds heavier (6'3.25", 209 lbs at the combine) while being arguably being just as fast, and you'll get an idea of how good Marvin Harrison Jr. is. Although he didn't officially test, this year's Biletnikoff Award winner reportedly runs in the high 4.3s with a 3.94 shuttle and 10'8" broad jump, which helped him put up 14 touchdowns and over 1,200 yards in both his sophomore and junior seasons.
Harrison's breakout came just a month after he turned 20 as he accounted for 33.33% of Ohio State's receiving touchdowns, 32.57% of their receiving yards, and 28.10% of their receptions in the '22-23 season. Those market shares improved to 53.85% (!!), 35.70%, and 27.35% in the 12 games that he played this past season even with CJ Stroud replaced at quarterback by Kyle McCord, who has since had to transfer to Syracuse. Harrison's efficiency was also outstanding and on the rise with 3.08 and 3.22 yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA) and 3.18 and 3.44 Y/RR (anything over 3 is elite in both metrics).
Harrison is often compared to both AJ Green and Larry Fitzgerald, albeit with more speed than both, so it's fitting that he wears the same number as the former (it's pretty cool that he wears #18 in honor of his dad's QB, Peyton Manning) and was drafted to the same team as the latter. Arizona needed a new #1 receiver after the departures of DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown in back to back years, and they rank 6th in both available targets and available target share from last season. With Kyler Murray another year removed from his torn ACL, the first WR taken in this year's draft will have a more than adequate passer to feed him those vacated looks. I expect big things right out of the gate.
