2026 NBA Lottery Reaction & the Results of Traded Picks

This is always one of my favorite posts to write every year because I have a funny fascination with the NBA Draft Lottery. I have some mixed feelings on the league's proposed changes to the format, especially rushing them to go into effect next year already, but that's a topic for another time. 

Today's results weren't nearly as crazy as last year's, but there was still some drama at the top. As usual, I'll run through some quick thoughts on the fallout and tidbits about the odds of picks landing where they did before a breakdown of how all of the previously traded 1st rounders ended up. A whopping 12 picks are already in the possession of a new team, and I'll explain how each of them got there.

• Starting at the top of the draft order, the big thing here is that in likely the last year of the current lottery odds that began with the 2019 draft, this is the first time that the team with the worst record won the lottery. The fact that the Wizards did it with John Wall, the franchise's #1 pick the last time they won the lottery in 2010, as the representative on the dais was fitting, especially since they just had a John Wall Night to celebrate him a few months ago.
  
  
• This ended a run of three straight years that the worst team dropped to their lowest possible slot, #5. I noted that streak and the drought of #1 picks in last year's piece, along with the fact that the previous format from 2005-2018 began with 10 straight years of the team with the best odds not getting the #1 pick and then ended with four straight lottery wins.
  
  
• If this current format changes at the end of the month as expected, it will go down as having five instances that one of the three worst teams, who all have the same 14% chance, wins the #1 pick. The other three winners had chances of 6%, 3%, and 1.8%.
  
  
• I've written in previous editions how the lowest number drawn is often key since the the vast majority of them are assigned to the worst teams, so the 4 and 2 coming up at the start of the drawing really narrowed the field. That especially applies to a 1 popping up, and in fact, Brett Siegel reports that once those numbers were drawn, it was guaranteed to be one of Washington's four-digit combinations. It's always cool to watch the footage from inside the secret drawing room ahead of the television production, and you can even see Pacers assistant GM Ted Wu react to the third number before saying something to Wizards president Michael Winger. Unfortunately for Wu, he can also be seen looking a bit dejected partway through the final drawing because...
  
  
  
  
• Aside from the Wiz, I think that the Clippers were the biggest winners since they wound up getting the #5 pick from the Pacers as a result of the Ivica Zubac trade. It was a fascinating gamble because Indiana had the third-worst record record at the time, which meant that there was a 52.14% of them keeping the top-4 protected pick, and they ended up with the second-worst record to maintain those odds. That 47.86% on the other end broke down as a 27.84% chance at #5 and 20.02% at #6 for LA, otherwise the pick would convert to an unprotected first all the way in 2031 to try to have similar upside. The best possible outcome occurring puts the Clips in an interesting position since they already began getting younger by adding Bennedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson in that deal (along with a 2029 1st rounder) and swapping out James Harden for Darius Garland. Kawhi Leonard is entering the last year of his contract, but they don't control their own 1st until 2030, which could prevent a rebuild.
  
  
• After finishing with the same record, the Jazz and Kings had the same odds for the top-4 picks, but Utah won the tiebreaker to have the higher pick if neither of them won one of those selections. That proverbial coin flip proved to be quite lucky for them because they wound up with the group of combinations that landed #2 pick, which they had an 11.39% chance of winning, and were even called again in the drawing for the #3 pick, as seen in the video above. That’s quite a change in fortune for the Jazz after they dropped four spots to #5 last year, dropped two spots to #10 in 2024, and stayed at #9 in 2023 during this prolonged rebuild.
  
  
• They already showed surprising aggressiveness by trading for Jaren Jackson Jr. ahead of this year’s trade deadline, so it’s fair to wonder if they try to make a deal to flip picks with Washington to ensure that they can take AJ Dybantsa. You wouldn’t think that they need another forward after adding Jackson to a front court with Lauri Markkanen and restricted free agent Walker Kessler, but Dybantsa did spend his final year of high school in Utah before playing at BYU, where Jazz owner Ryan Smith was a huge donor to the NIL fund to recruit him.
  
  
• It was rumored last year that Ace Bailey had a promise from the Wizards was trying to maneuver himself to fall to their #6 pick before he landed in Utah at #5, so perhaps he could be trade chip between the two sides. Of course, it’s far from a certainty that Dybantsa will be the first player off the board, especially since Darryn Peterson apparently discovered the root cause of the cramping issues that rendered him uncertain for so much of his stop and start freshman season.
  
  
• It also could be argued that a dynamic combo guard like Peterson is a better fit for Washington’s roster, although it’s typically best to just take the best player available at the top of the draft. They made opportunistic trades at a low cost to have Trae Young at point guard and Anthony Davis as a big man partner for cornerstone piece Alex Sarr, and recent 1st rounders Tre Johnson, Will Riley, Kyshawn George, and Bilal Coulibaly are all intriguing options on the wing. Would a sharpshooting playmaker at guard make more sense than a point forward like Dybantsa? What if Bailey or a future 1st round pick is involved like the last time two top-3 picks were exchanged in 2017? Jazz CEO Danny Ainge made that deal when he was running the Celtics, but he was the one moving down back then instead of up.
  
  
• After starting to move in a different direction with the Desmond Bane trade and then really going that way with the JJJ deal, the Grizzlies's 9.40% chance at the #3 pick came through to move them up three spots. This seems like a ready-made spot for Cam Boozer as Jackson's replacement up front, but it's not out of the question that he goes higher after sweeping the national player of the year awards as a freshman. After all, his father, Carlos, was a star for the Jazz and is now a part of their front office, but they do have all of those big bodies that I already mentioned. Memphis could also look to Caleb Wilson to slide into a forward spot, but either way, the jump up was a triumph to get into this top tier of the draft.
  
  
• Since the draft order is announced on TV in reverse order, the Bulls were the first team that the audience knew moved up from the 9th slot, and it seemed for a second that we might have a wild top-4 like the last couple of years. Instead, it ended up the biggest jump of the day, even if they "only" wound up with #4, which had a 5.71% probability. Compared to Washington's 52.11%, Utah's 45.15%, and Memphis' 37.20%, Chicago only having a 20.27% chance at a top-4 pick makes them the unlikeliest winner of the way. Although it is a strong and deep draft overall, there is widely considered to be a tier of four prospects at the top of the list between Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer, and Wilson, so the new front office might end up with the easiest choice on draft night with whichever player is left.
  
  
• The Bulls are of course always associated with Michael Jordan, who went to went to North Carolina, and the current expectations are that the player available at #4 player will be Wilson, who is also a Tar Heel. The funny thing is that they just traded away another North Carolina player, Coby White, when they were heavy sellers at the trade deadline. The former regime was criticized for holding onto players for too long and not getting enough in their return packages, but it did set them up to go 7-24 down the stretch to get in a position for luck to strike.
  
  
• After Indiana, the biggest loser of the day is probably Brooklyn since they also had a 52.11% chance of a top-4 pick yet ended up falling three spots to #6, which had a 26.02% likelihood. Two years ago they arguably overpaid by giving up two 1st rounders from other teams and two swap rights to those teams in order gain control of their own picks in 2025 and 2026. That allowed them to trade Mikal Bridges and commit to a two-year rebuild, but between this fall and last year's two spot drop, they only wound up with the #6 and #8 picks. Now they go back to not controlling their pick next year since Houston can swap with them one last time and still might not have a franchise player.
  
  
• The other team with unfortunate luck that I need to call out is Atlanta. Because they were set to receive whichever pick is better between New Orleans and Milwaukee (more on that below), they had a 9.80% chance at the #1 pick thanks to those two teams' combined odds. The math works out a bit differently that you can't just add up the probabilities as far as a top-4 pick, but the Hawks still had a 40.20% chance of that. Instead, they dropped a spot to #8, which was a 30.18% possibility.
  
  
  
• Finally, I'm pretty sure that there was a sigh of relief for everyone outside of the state of Oklahoma when the Thunder logo was revealed with the #12 pick. The reigning champions are 7-0 so far in these playoffs and already have more young talent than they can play consistently, as evidenced by my fellow UCSB alum Ajay Mitchell being an injury replacement starter yet leading the game in scoring. Despite no team this low in the lottery moving up in the current system, the 7.11% chance of it happening was a scary thought since we have seen two teams move up from #11.
  

If you're wondering how Oklahoma City could even have a chance at such a high pick, this next section is for you. Looking at the full order from Tankathon.com, you can see just how many picks have changed hands, and mostly out of my own curiosity, I dug into each of the 1st rounders.

Clippers receive the #5 pick from the Pacers

Already discussed above with the Zubac trade.

Hawks receive the #8 pick from the Pelicans

This was a really fun one, so I'm disappointed that it ended up where it did. As part of the Jrue Holiday trade back in 2020, New Orleans gained the right to swap their own 1st round pick with Milwaukee's in this draft. They inexplicably gave up their pick and thus those swap rights on draft day last year just to move up 10 spots from #23 to #13 for Derik Queen. 

This was one of those trades where seemingly the entire basketball world was immediately perplexed. The team that just had fourth-worst record in the league giving up their unprotected pick is already irresponsible but especially when it has the chance to move up thanks to a Bucks team that was already facing a dilemma with Giannis Antetokounmpo.  And then not only was it just to get a pick near the middle of the round, but they had to also give up the #23 pick as part of the trade. If they were so sure of Queen working out as a prospect, they could've just taken him with their own pick at #7.

Instead it ended up as a steal for the Hawks, who took Asa Newell after moving down and ended up with two bites at the apple in the lottery, as mentioned above. For a lot of the season it seemed like they could have the best odds at the top pick, but after the Pelicans unsurprisingly started just 13-40, they finished 13-16. Having no incentive to lose while so many other teams tanked to an extremely level at the end of the year resulted in New Orleans "only" tying for the seventh-worst record this season, and they won the tiebreaker to have one more four-digit combination than Dallas and a 6.80% chance of the #1 pick. Meanwhile, Milwaukee weathered trade drama and injuries with Giannis to finish with the 10th-worst record for a 3% possibility of moving to the top spot.

It was such a shrewd move by Atlanta to make a bet against two poorly run franchises and have two swings at lottery luck with that pick swap, but it wasn't meant to be as Chicago was the team in the 7 to 10 range to jump up. That dropped the New Orleans pick to #8, which is still a great pick in this stacked draft and an improvement on the #13 slot that they gave up. It's just not as spectacular of a return as it could've been for a team that was the #6 seed in the playoffs and on the rise with a youthful roster.

Thunder receive the #12 pick from the Clippers

At long last, this is the final pick that LA owed from the infamous trade to land Paul George with Kawhi Leonard. I dove into it more ahead of last year's Finals, but here's a quick summary of what Oklahoma City ended up with:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (coming off of his rookie season)
• Danilo Gallinari (in the last year of his contract)
• Tre Mann (Miami's 2021 1st round pick)
• Jalen Williams (LA's 2022 1st round pick)
• Right to swap 2028 1st round picks with Dallas in exchange for LA's 2024 1st round pick...that later ended up as Dillon Jones for OKC after re-acquiring the pick on draft night for five 2nd rounders.
• Thomas Sorber (Miami's 2025 1st round pick after giving them back their 2023 1st for this one)
• San Antonio's 2027 top-16 protected 1st (thanks to swapping the #30 pick in 2025 with LA's #24 pick and then trading the pick to Sacramento, who took Nique Clifford).
• This year's #12 pick, which is the same slot that they got for the Williams pick.

Bulls receive the #15 pick from the Trail Blazers

Way back in the 2021 offseason, Portland traded this pick as part of a three-way deal with Chicago and Cleveland to acquire Larry Nance Jr. from the Cavaliers. The Bulls received this 1st, a 2nd from the Cavs, and Derrick Jones Jr. from the Trail Blazers in exchange for sign-and-trading Markkanen to Cleveland.

Nance ended up traded again just six months later with CJ McCollum in a package that in a roundabout way wound up as Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle, and Kris Murray as the long-term result for the Blazers. Markkanen also got dealt again within a year as part of the Cavs' package for Donovan Mitchell while Jones only lasted two seasons with the Bulls as a bench player. Hopefully this pick can help ease Chicago's pain of giving up an eventual All-Star.

Grizzlies swap the #18 pick for #16 from the Suns, via the Magic

This one had an interesting journey. In the 2023 offseason, Phoenix first agreed to give up multiple swap 1st round swap rights to Washington as part of the Bradley Beal trade and then gave up further rights to swap after the Wizards in exchange for 2nd round picks to use in other deals. Zach Lowe, being the Harry Potter fan that he is, termed this type of maneuvering as "horcruxing" the picks to the Magic and Grizzlies in a series of moves.

For this year's 1st rounder, Washington (predictably) finished with the worst record in the league and thus had no reason to swap, and Orlando actually tied Phoenix (and Philadelphia) in the standings. The Suns "won" the the three-way tiebreaker, but it didn't actually matter here due to these swap rights.

Then last summer the Magic dealt the more favorable of their pick or the Suns' as part of the Desmond Bane trade with the Grizzlies. Funnily enough, Memphis already had third dibs on swapping with Phoenix, but that didn't come into play due to finishing with a worse record.

Hornets receive the #18 pick from the Magic, via the Suns

Going slightly out of order here just to finish the thought, that tiebreaker really didn't matter to Phoenix because they dealt whatever pick they were going to wind up with to Charlotte as part of the Jusuf Nurkic salary dump for Cody Martin and Vasilije Micic. The Hornets knew that they would be receiving the worst 1st rounder out of the Suns, Wizards, Magic, or Grizzlies when they made the deal ahead of the 2025 trade deadline, and it turned out that none of those teams ended up having very good seasons. Where they got unlucky was that the 76ers ended up winning the second-best pick in the three-way tiebreaker.

Thunder receive the #17 pick from the 76ers

All the way back in 2020, Philadelphia sent this pick, the rights to the #34 pick that year, Theo Maledon, and the draft rights of Micic (coincidentally involved in the pick above) to OKC in order to dump Al Horford's big contract for Danny Green and Terrance Ferguson. The 76ers got extremely lucky last year to not only keep their top-6 protected pick (they had a 63.9% chance) but move up two spots to #3 for VJ Edgecombe, who looks like a future star.

It's not the #7 or #8 pick like the Thunder could have received last year, but landing a pick in the middle of the 1st isn't too bad for a salary dump, even if it did take this long to convey. It also worked out that they were able to flip Horford back to Boston just a year later to pick up another 1st rounder in order to take on Kemba Walker's contract. That pick was dealt yet again for two more 1st rounders that were eventually used to trade for the pick used on Ousmane Dieng, which they did to ensure that J-Dub would fall to their own pick, as previously mentioned.

Spurs swap the #29 pick for #20 from the Hawks

In the 2022 offseason, Atlanta traded Gallinari's partially guaranteed contract, a heavily protected Charlotte 1st rounder, their 2025 and 2027 1st rounders, and the right to swap 2026 1st round picks to San Antonio for Dejounte Murray and Jock Landale.

The Hornets pick was never going to convey but did prove useful to the Spurs as a sweetener in their De'Aaron Fox trade, and the first 1st rounder became Carter Bryant, who looks great as a rookie 3+D forward. Now moving from the end of the first round to #20 is a nice jump up to add more to the return. The Hawks did salvage the situation by eventually moving Murray for Dyson Daniels and two other 1st rounders. One of those ended up in the trade for Kristaps Porzingis, who became Jonathan Kuminga for them.

Pistons swap the #28 pick for #21 from the Timberwolves

Minnesota originally gave swap rights on this pick to Utah as part of the Rudy Gobert trade in 2022, but that didn't come to fruition given the constant rebuild going on in Salt Lake City. Then ahead of this year's trade deadline, when it was already apparent that there would be no swap there, Detroit picked up these rights as part of a three-way trade with Chicago.

The Pistons traded Jaden Ivey to the Bulls in exchange for Kevin Huerter, Dario Saric, and this ability to jump up in the draft. The Wolves made that sacrifice in order to send Mike Conley to the Bulls for just cash considerations so that they could get out of the First Apron and save a good amount in luxury tax payments. That Apron status came into play a couple of days later when Minnesota combined with Chicago again on the Ayo Dosunmu trade that's proved huge for their playoff run, and it all worked out with Conley able to re-sign later after being bought out by Charlotte after a subsequent trade.

76ers receive the #22 pick from the Rockets, via the Thunder

This finally completes Houston's obligation from the Russell Westbrook trade back in 2019. He lasted one season there before being shipped off to Washington for John Wall and a 1st round pick that was used in a package to land Alperen Sengun in the 2021 draft.

OKC ended up with this pick, a 2024 1st rounder that became Nikola Topic, a swap in 2021 that didn't convey due to top-4 protection, a 2025 swap that didn't convey due to a better swap, and Chris Paul. CP3 ended up leading the Thunder to the same record as the Rockets that year and a 4-5 playoff matchup that Houston won in seven games. Paul was then dealt to Phoenix for a package that sprawled into numerous draft picks that haven't all conveyed yet, and the Thunder went into their rebuild that resulted in their current run.

Then at this season's trade deadline, the Thunder were surprisingly able to use this pick along with three 2nd rounders to snag Jared McCain from the 76ers. It helped Philly get out of the luxury tax, but it must sting seeing the sharp shooter doing well in OKC's playoff run just a year after he was looking like a Rookie of the Year candidate before getting hurt.

Hawks swap the #29 pick, via the Spurs, for #23 from the Cavaliers

At the 2025 trade deadline, Atlanta dealt De'Andre Hunter to Cleveland for Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, three 2nd rounders, and the right to swap picks this year and in 2028, with two caveats. First, the Cavs were Horcruxing their 1st rounders in those years since the Jazz had first rights from the aforementioned Mitchell trade. Second, and more importantly for this year, the Hawks' swap rights come after the Spurs swap with them. Thus, Atlanta moved down from #20 to #29 and then back up to #23 here.

LeVert and Hunter ended up having similar production after the trade, albeit with a difference in bulk for defense and positional versatility. LeVert then left in free agency and Niang was included in the Porzingis deal while Hunter ended moved again a year later in a move for Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis. It's not a crazy drop in this draft for the Cavs, but it doesn't seem like it was worth it, even before knowing what happens with the 2028 pick.

Mavericks receive the #30 pick from the Thunder

The last pick of the round is another one with a winding journey. At the beginning of the '23-24 season, Oklahoma City got involved in another James Harden trade by including the least favorable of the various 2026 1st rounders that they owned. Given the treasure chest of extra picks that they had, this was a calculated risk to gain swap rights with the Clippers again in 2027. They gave up a guaranteed 1st (with low upside due to being the least favorable) for a bet that they'll be the better team to make that swap count, and they're betting down the line against a team comprised of older stars.

Philly then used this pick at the 2025 deadline to salary dump Reggie Jackson on Washington and add four 2nd rounders. Fianally, the Wizards used it a year later as part of their package for Anthony Davis, along with a top-20 protected 2030 Warriors 1st, three 2nd rounders, and AJ Johnson as the only player signed beyond this season.

Dallas got off of the money owed to Jaden Hardy and D'Angelo Russell and out of the luxury tax with the deal, but it's not an exciting return for the player that former GM Nico Harrison was obsessed about getting in exchange for Luka Doncic. Co-interim GMs Michael Finley and Matt Riccardi were put in a tough spot by that mind-boggling, of course, but the net result is that trading a perennial MVP candidate only gave them some cap relief, Johnson, Max Christie, three 2nd rounders, the #30 pick, a pick that will be in the 20's if it conveys, and one (1!) unprotected Lakers 1st rounder. Now new team president Masai Ujiri and GM Mike Schmitz, who are good hires at least, will try to pick up the pieces.