The NFL Draft has long been over, and I finally finished my first dynasty league rookie draft of the season. That means that now is as good of a time as ever to go through some rookie rankings, starting with the weakest group in this class. There weren't many running backs taken overall and especially not early as a lot of the prospects have question marks.
I ended up going a bit longer than expected on the clear top runner, but that's reflective of this draft with shorter write ups thereafter. As usual, I'm taking into account three components when evaluating these prospects: their production profile, their athleticism, and where they were drafted. As mentioned last year, the stats that I'm looking at come from years of following JJ Zachariason's work, including each of his prospect guides that go over his statistical models and how RBs' speed scores (based on 40 yard dash and weight) are important.
I'll be looking at each player's total yards from scrimmage per team play (TY/P), receiving yards per team pass attempt (RY/PA), his share of the team's total offensive touchdowns, and his share of the team's receptions in the games that he played. Besides speed score, I'm looking at vertical jumps and broad jumps to get a futher idea of physical traits, and all measurements are from the NFL combine (ideally) or pro day results as listed in Dane Brugler's The Beast on The Athletic. Finally, the stats are coming from Sports Reference and Pro Football Focus.
1. Jeremiyah Love - 1st round, 3rd overall, 1st RB drafted - Cardinals
Like last year, this is the easiest start possible given Love's complete profile. You can argue that a team with as many roster needs as Arizona shouldn't take a running back so high (his draft slot will earn him the most guaranteed money at the position in NFL history, for example), but what is a widely held opinion is that he is the best skill position player in this draft. Perhaps even the best player overall.
Love broke out as a 19 year old sophomore on Notre Dame's national runner up team in 2024 with 163 carries for 1,125 yards (6.90 per carry) and 17 touchdowns along with 28 catches for 237 yards and another 2 scores. That resulted in a strong 27.54% touchdown share and 9.46% reception share but just okay 1.34 total yards per team play and 0.53 receiving yards team per pass attempt. This past season, however, he had similar yet improved raw numbers despite fewer games played, and thus his market shares were great across the board.
Carrying the ball 199 times for 1,372 yards (6.89), Love tied the Fighting Irish record with 18 rushing touchdowns, and with his 27 catches for 280 yards and 3 more end zone trips, his 21 total TDs set a new record in the school's long history. He would've also broken the records for most rushing yards and yards from scrimmage had he not been slowed by rib injury in his last game of the season or had the team not been frustratingly left out of the playoff bracket. Altogether, the Doak Walker award winner and Heisman trophy finalist scored 33.33% of the team's offensive TDs, averaged 2.20 TY/P and 0.87 RY/PA, and caught 12.44% of their receptions.
Love showed out at the Combine despite being a lock to be the top RB in this week class, which shows what kind of competitor he is and how confident he is in his athleticism. At 6'0" and 212 pounds, he blazed a 4.36 40 yard dash for an elite 117.33 speed score. He uses that strong frame and competitiveness as a very willing blocker, often leading the way on designed quarterback runs by the goal line that hurt his own scoring numbers. Sharing a backfield with a fellow 1st round pick (see below) didn't help either, and yet he still hits basically every mark. The reception share isn't at the top of the class but is still plenty good as he displayed dynamic ability as a receiver, with his one hander against Texas A&M a good example.
Altogether, Love possesses a three-down skill set with a terrific production profile, high-end physical tools, and about as high of a pedigree as you could get. Not even turning 21 until the end of May, he lands in a situation that isn't necessarily great but could be worse. The offensive line has potential after signing Isaac Seumalo and drafting Chase Bisontis in the 2nd round to improve both guard spots. In the short term, Jacoby Brissett displayed last season that he can run a functional passing game with a strong group of targets in Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson. The selection of Carson Beck in the 3rd round leaves a lot to be desired as a long-term QB to line up next to, but they could have another high draft pick in next year's stronger class. The signing of Tyler Allgeier to go with veteran holdover James Conner and 2024 2nd round pick Trey Benson is what made picking a RB at #3 such a surprising choice. The latter two are coming off of season-ending injuries, though, and have no attachment to a brand new coaching staff in place. They may cap Love's upside as a rookie with something of a committee, but his ascension to one of the league's stars should only be a matter of when, not if.
2. Jadarian Price - 1st round, 32nd overall, 2nd RB drafted - Seahawks
Notre Dame made history in the 1st round with this being the first time in the common draft era that the first two RBs selected came from the same school. Love and Price are also just the sixth pair of RB teammates to go in the 1st round and the first since Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (Arkansas) in 2008. Naturally, Price doesn't have a strong production profile given Love's dominance, so there's a lot of projecting needed here.
The main appeal for Price is his big play ability that was on display with his 15 total touchdowns on just 131 touches as a redshirt junior last season. Two of those came on special teams en route to being named a first team All-American kick returner (12 for 450 yards), and two others came as a receiver despite having just 6 catches for 87 yards. Hardly being involved at all in the passing game is the biggest knock for Price as he had paltry reception shares of 2.20%, 1.35%, and 2.76% over his three seasons.
That also resulted in just 0.27 RY/PA and 1.01 TY/P, with a 20.63% touchdown share being the only production metric even close to average in this class, but again, this was always going to be the case next to Love. Price did rank second in the class with 19.22% of his career carries going for 10+ yards, and looking more at physical traits, his Combine performance showed that he is a good, if unspectacular athlete. At 5'10.625" and 203 pounds, his 4.49 40 time was a little surprising given all of his long runs, but it was still enough for a decent speed score of 99.89. The 10'4" broad jump and 35" vertical better displayed his explosiveness, and he put up 21 bench press reps to boot.
What really solidified Price's ranking in this class was Seattle taking him in the 1st round. Possessing a monstrous defense and strong offensive line, the Super Bowl champions love to run the ball, and the 22 year old will have the opportunity to be the Week 1 starter. With Zach Charbonnet tearing his ACL in January and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker lost to free agency, Price will be competing with Emanuel Wilson, who only received $1.6 million in free agency after being a Packers backup, and George Holani, who was re-signed for under $1.1 million after mostly playing special teams. Draft capital doesn't always guarantee playing time, but in this situation, the rookie has a great chance to be featured more as a pro than he was in college.
3. Jonah Coleman - 4th round, 108th overall, 4th RB drafted - Broncos
Coleman had to wait a while to hear his name but remains one of the most well-rounded 'backs in this class. After emerging as a starter as a 20 year old sophomore at Arizona, he followed the coaching staff to Washington and became a workhorse these past two seasons. He had a 1,000 yard campaign as a junior with a solid 27.78% TD share and 1.46 TY/P.
Coleman was a little banged up as a senior, but if you remove the Wisconsin game that he left early and the Purdue game that he missed completely, the numbers really stand out. With that prorated adjustment, he had a 35.42% TD share, a 13.36% reception share, and 1.06 RY/PA in his full games, all great marks. A 1.55 TY/P is not quite as strong but still was an improvement and ranks above average for the class.
The physical tools are likely what held Coleman back in terms of draft capital. With a compact 5'8.125", 220 pound frame, he chose not to work out at either the Combine or his pro day aside from an impressive 22 rep bench press display. Unless the player already has huge draft stock, choosing not to do a drill is usually a sign that he knows that he wouldn't post a good number in it. A lack of explosiveness was also something of a concern for scouts, as Brugler noted that only 12.74% of Coleman's carries resulted in 10+ yards last season. However, that number was 19.79% as a junior, and his career rate of 16.70% is well above the class average to indicate that this critique might be overblown.
It would've been nice if Coleman went on Day 2, but going early on Day 3 isn't too bad, especially when considering that he was still the fourth RB off the board given the league's overall lack of interest in this group of options. Denver is an interesting landing spot since they have an elite offensive line and defense...but just took RJ Harvey in the late 2nd round last year and re-signed JK Dobbins. After the veteran unfortunately suffered yet another season-ending injury (Lisfranc this time) in Week 10, the rookie was decent but struggled with efficiency. Since Harvey didn't profile as a workhorse and Sean Payton offenses typically employ a committee anyway, it's not out of the question that Coleman could end up with a good amount of work if Dobbins has any setbacks. Only the first year of Dobbins' 2 year, $16 million contract is guaranteed, as well.
4. Emmett Johnson - 5th round, 161st overall, 6th RB drafted - Chiefs (traded up)
I might be holding on too strongly to my pre-draft views here, but with this class of RBs being so wide open after the top-two, I'm okay putting a 5th rounder this high. Johnson's breakthrough season came as a 20 year old redshirt sophomore when he was Nebraska's second-leading rusher and had the third-most catches on the team, resulting in a strong 13.54% reception share and above average 0.66 RY/PA. He took things to another level as a redshirt junior to rush for 1,451 yards and 12 touchdowns and still catch 46 passes for 370 yards and 3 more touchdowns.
Johnson did that in just 12 contest before opting out of the bowl game, giving him prorated rates of 37.5% of the team's TDs, 2.38 TY/P, 18.78% of the receptions, and 1.06 RY/PA. Those are all elite numbers that rank among the top of the class in each category, so the production profile is definitely there. If there is a stat where he trails his peers, it's explosive run rate (more descriptive of a stat) that was just 13.13% for his career.
The lack of top-end speed did show up at the Combine, where Johnson ran just a 4.56 40 at 5'10.25", 202 pounds. The resulting speed score of 93.44 is well below average, but it isn't a death sentence. His 35.5" and 10'0" jumps show that he is a good enough athlete to believe that the production is translatable at the next level. I suspect that the 40 time was the main reason for his fall in the draft after being expected to go in the 3rd or maybe 4th round.
The Chiefs liked Johnson enough to trade up in the 5th to get him, though, and it is an intriguing landing spot. On the one hand, they just signed Kenneth Walker III to a 3 year, $43.05 million free agency deal with the first two years guaranteed. On the other, Walker has had some bad luck with injuries so far in his career and has only one season in his career with a double-digit target share. Kansas City did make a similar trade up for Brashard Smith a year ago as a similar receiving specialist, but that was only in the 7th round before a nondescript rookie season that didn't prevent this addition. I think Johnson can carve out a role right away and have the potential to be a lead back if Walker gets hurt again.
5. Nick Singleton - 5th round, 161st overall, 7th RB drafted - Titans
Singleton is a riveting case because if he declared for the draft after his junior season, he probably would've gone much higher. Instead, he returned to Penn State after their loss to Notre Dame in the national semifinal only to experience a disastrous season that saw his starting quarterback go down and head coach fired. Still, there were some positives to take out of that senior year like a career-best 31.82% touchdown share.
Singleton broke out right away with 1,061 rushing yards and 13 total TDs as an 18 year old true freshman, although his market share numbers didn't stand out yet as part of a committee with Kaytron Allen (see below). He improved as a receiver in his sophomore year to register a solid 10.57% reception share and strong 0.75 RY/PA, and then the aforementioned junior year was his best season. Running for 1,099 yards and 12 scores in addition to 41 catches for 375 yards and 5 more touchdowns resulted in a 27.42% TD share, 1.48 TY/P, 14.91% reception share, and 0.91 RY/PA.
Singleton unfortunately broke a bone in his foot at Senior Bowl practices to sideline him for much of the draft process and not improve his stock. If you go back to the preseason, though, Bruce Feldman's always fun Freaks List reported an elite 4.35 40 yard dash and 10'5" broad jump. Using Singleton's Combine measurements of 6'0" and 219 pounds and a 4.40 40 time to adjust for being hand timed, that would give him an outstanding 116.86 speed score.
The funny thing is that even with all of that athleticism, only 13.44% of Singleton's carries went for 10+ yards in his career, which speaks to some criticisms of his running style around the line of scrimmage. Still, you have a well-rounded production profile for someone who is widely regarded as a great athlete, and the landing spot could be underrated. Both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are going into the last year of their respective contracts, and the Titans have a new coaching staff without an attachment to them. The rookie might not get much work right away with that competition, but the potential is there down the line.
6. Kaelon Black - 3rd round, 90th overall, 3rd RB drafted - 49ers
Black might have been the most puzzling pick of the entire draft considering that 1) he wasn't even invited to the NFL Combine let alone expected to go on Day 2 and 2) the 49ers selected him despite constantly wasting mid-round picks on RBs that have busted during this regime. As a quick reminder of the literal insanity at this point:
- In their first draft in 2017, they traded up to reach for Joe Williams (#336 consensus ranking on NFL Mock Draft Database) in the 4th round at pick #121...only for him to never play an NFL snap and get outperformed by fellow rookie and undrafted free agent, Matt Breida.
- In 2021, they once again traded up to take Trey Sermon (consensus #118) in the 3rd round at pick #88...only for him to often be inactive on game days in favor of fellow rookie and 6th round pick, Elijah Mitchell. Cut after one year.
- The very next year in 2022 and in a year they lacked a 1st round pick, they reached for Tyrion Davis-Price (consensus #270) in the 3rd round at pick #93 as their second selection...only for him to often be inactive on game days in favor of fellow rookie and UDFA, Jordan Mason. This time it was two years before being cut.
- In 2024, they once again traded up to take Isaac Guerendo (consensus #155) in the 4th round at pick #129). This time the UDFA rookie competition, Cody Schrader, didn't make final cuts, and Guerendo did actually start some games...before falling into the doghouse as a sophomore and playing zero offensive snaps this past year.
- In 2025, they finally got a decent value on Jordan James (consensus #125) in the 5th round at pick #147...only for him to get zero carries during the regular season before a half dozen in a blowout playoff game.
So the history isn't in Black's favor, but now that I got my frustrations as a 49ers fan out of the way, I can objectively point out that there isn't much of a production profile here either. It took until he was a 21 year old redshirt junior before he was a real contributor at James Madison (newly promoted to the FBS level), and even then it was only an adequate 9.38% reception share and 0.59 RY/PA that stands out. He didn't do much the following year after following the coaching staff to Indiana before running for 1,040 yards and 10 TDs for the national champions in his sixth year of college. Due to being the second-leading rusher on the team and not being involved in the passing game at all (a whole 4 receptions for the year), that only translated to a 12.35% touchdown share and 1.01 TY/P, though.
Black at least has a nice athletic profile based on his pro day numbers (again, no Combine invite). At 5'9.25" and 211 pounds, he had a 37.5" vertical, a 10'5" broad jump, and reportedly ran a 4.45 40. With the usual 0.05 added on to adjust for not being laser timed, that's good for a 102.91 speed score, and this is a case where that was evident on the field with his career 16.47% explosive run rate.
San Francisco clearly saw enough in that film to shock the world and make Black the third 'back off the board. In theory it is a decent landing spot since he could become the handcuff to a superstar RB who unfortunately has an injury history, Christian McCaffrey. James and Guerendo are still around to compete for that role, but you would think that Black has the upper hand after this investment and stubbornness in defending the pick. It's just hard to trust any mid-round pick under Kyle Shanahan, no matter how great of an offensive environment he creates.
7. Mike Washington - 4th round, 122nd overall, 5th RB drafted - Raiders
This is likely another handcuff situation as Washington went later than expected and landed with a team who used the 6th overall pick on the position last year. It was assumed that his stock soared into Day 2 after absolutely crushing the Combine with an unbelievable 4.33 40 yard dash at 6'1" and 223 pounds. That's a 126.88 speed score to go with a 39" vertical and 10'8" broad jump for exceptional marks across the board.
Like with Singleton, though, all of that athleticism only produced a 13.40% explosive run rate for Washington's career. He had a bit of a winding career that started at Buffalo, where he had okay numbers as a 19 year old redshirt freshman that resulted in a 20% touchdown share, 0.76 TY/P, 8.42% reception share, and 0.29 RY/PA. After a down year, he transferred to New Mexico State where he led a committee with Seth McGowan (see below) to record 0.98 TY/P and a career-high 32.14% TD share.
Washington put it all together for the most part this past year after transferring once again, despite Arkansas going just 2-10. Behind 1,070 rushing yards, 28 catches for 226 yards, and 9 total touchdowns, he registered a 19.15% TD share and career-highs of 1.65 TY/P, 12.12% reception share, and 0.59 RY/PA. There could have been some potential here if things broke the right way, but instead the rookie will likely just be a change of pace option behind Ashton Jeanty on a rebuilding Raiders team.
8. Kaytron Allen - 6th round, 187th overall, 9th RB drafted - Commanders
Allen was a part of the same recruiting class as Singleton and actually became Penn State's all-time leader in rushing yards. He was more of the grinder but couldn't get the edge in the touchdown department (where Singleton is the all-time leader) until their senior season when Allen had 15, all on the ground, against 13 rushing and 1 receiving for his running mate.
In fact, due to the nature of their committee, none of Allen's market shares stand out until this past year as a 22 year old. He had a nice 34.09% TD share and 1.86 TY/P and finally got just enough receiving work for a 8.87% reception share, albeit with only 0.22 RY/PA. His best mark there actually came as a freshman, but even then 0.45 is nothing to write home about.
Like with Coleman, Allen choosing not to work out at the Combine likely is due to expecting poor testing numbers. His 13.93% explosive run rate is a touch better than Singleton's behind the same offensive lines over the years, but it's more in line with the scouting report of lacking long-speed. Lasting as long as he did in the draft also doesn't inspire a ton of confidence in his outlook.
Allen's numbers as a senior are compelling enough, though, and Washington is a pretty nice landing spot. The RB room is crowded but pretty wide open between him, last year's 7th-rounder Bill Croskey-Merritt, and free agent additions Rachaad White and Jerome Ford. With a young star quarterback in Jayden Daniels to line up next to, there could be potential there.
9. Demond Claiborne - 6th round, 198th overall, 10th RB drafted - Vikings (traded up)
Claiborne felt like one of the more underrated prospects during this draft cycle since there is a lot to like about his profile. He was a contributor as a 19 year old sophomore with a prorated 22.73% touchdown share and 0.91 TY/P, and then he broke out as a junior despite being on a bad Wake Forest team. His 1,049 rushing yards, 23 catches for 254 receiving yards, and 13 total scores resulted in a 37.14% TD share, 1.54 TY/P, 9.27% reception share, and 0.63 RY/PA.
Interestingly, Claiborne's numbers went down a little as the team improved around him to a 9-4 season (8-4 with him before opting out of the bowl game), but his prorated 27.78% touchdown share, 1.32 TY/P, 13.21% reception share, and 0.38 RY/PA aren't bad at all. The problem is that he only weighed 188 pounds at 5'9.75" and lasted until almost the 200th pick.
In Claiborne's defense, blazing a 4.37 40 yard dash still gave him a 103.10 speed score despite that weight, and his 10'2" broad jump is another good indicator of his athleticism. He just won't get a huge workload in the NFL in all likelihood. That could be okay when paired with someone like Mason in Minnesota since the rookie can provide the receiving element that the veteran lacks. Aaron Jones is still capable in that area when available, but after needing to take a pay cut to stick around, he will likely have to cede the reigns to Claiborne soon enough. And it's always nice to see a team move up to get the guy that they like, even if it did come this late in the draft.
10. Adam Randall - 5th round, 174th overall, 8th RB drafted - Ravens
Randall is kind of a fascinating prospect because he is a converted wide receiver yet checked in at 6'3.375" and 233 pounds. That late change gives us just one year of data at his NFL position with some mixed results. As a 21 year old senior, he was Clemson's leading rusher by far with 814 yards and 10 touchdowns, and he added 36 catches for 254 yards and 3 more scores.
I debated removing the Furman game when Randall was barely needed (just 3 total touches) against an overmatched FCS team but ultimately left that in since he still played 22 snaps. Overall, he accounted for 30.95% of the Tigers' offensive touchdowns, averaged 1.21 TY/P, had 11.65% of their receptions, and had 0.53 RY/PA. Decent numbers across the board for someone in his first year as a running back.
Randall's 4.50 40 yard dash at the Combine is solid at first glance but really looks great when you remember his size. That's an impressive 113.15 speed score to go with a 37" vertical and 10'4" broad jump, so the physical tools are there. That helped him become the first pick that Ravens owner Steve Biscoitti has ever personally made.
I don't want to make too big of a deal of that detail since the story behind it includes a close friendship with Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and a love for Combine testers, but it could be notable. Perhaps he saw a resemblance to their current star, Derrick Henry, who had similar numbers: 6'2.625", 247 pounds, 4.54 40, 116.28 speed score, 37" vertical, and 10'10" broad jump. The 32 year old is still signed for two more seasons, so Randall will likely be relegated to handcuff duties in the short-term. Just know that there is some upside here.
Honorable mentions
- It's hard to evaluate Steelers 7th round pick Eli Heidenreich since he played slot back in Navy's triple-option offense. He was incredibly efficient as both a rusher and receiver, though, and as Brugler noted, he set the school records for single-game receiving yards (243), single-season receiving yards (941), and career receiving-yards (1,994). With a strong Combine showing (6'0", 198 pounds, 4.44 40, 101.90 speed score, 35'5" vertical, 10'0" broad jump), there is sleeper potential for the hometown kid who had arguably the best moment of the draft.
Moments like THIS 🙌
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 25, 2026
The Pittsburgh crowd erupts as the Steelers select Navy RB Eli Heidenreich in Round 7! pic.twitter.com/SEr2A6c8Ue - Seth McGowan is another 7th rounder who tested well and has some receiving chops. At 6'0.125" and 223 pounds he ran a 4.49 for a 109.74 speed score and had outstanding jumps of 42.5" and 10'11". His 16.31% reception share and 0.87 RY/PA at New Mexico in 2024 and 41.38% touchdown share last year at Kentucky stand out, but the problem is that it took until he was a 22 year old redshirt senior and 23 year old sixth year player to hit those marks. He'll turn 25 during his rookie season yet won't likely have much short term opportunity with the Colts having Jonathan Taylor in tow.
- My favorite undrafted free agent is Jaydn Ott, who burst onto the scene at Cal as a 19 year old true freshman with a 33.33% TD share, 1.58 TY/P, 15.81% reception share, and 0.74 RY/PA. He had similar market shares as a sophomore, including a 1.72 TY/P, with improved raw numbers like 1,315 rushing and 14 total scores, but injuries held him back as a junior before being practically non-existent after transferring to Oklahoma. After not being invited to the Combine, he had strong pro days at both schools with a 40.5" vertical and 10'11 broad jump, although the reported 4.46 40 at 5'11" and 198 pounds makes for an adjusted speed score of 95.72. He'll have tough competition with the Chiefs having drafted Johnson, but that early career production is tantalizing.
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