Sunday, June 30, 2019

2019 NBA Offseason Day 1 Recap

The NBA season is never really over, is it? Talk about a wild opening weekend, and I have all of it covered! Instead of updating a massive post in real time with links to individual tweets like in previous years, I'm going to wait until the end of each day and just round up all of the reported deals. With the 1st day always being the most busy, I'm just getting the list out initially with my salary estimates, sorted by 2019 salary, and will add my thoughts to my minor notes afterwards.

(Estimates/player option/team option/not fully guaranteed)


Kevin Durant agrees to a sign-and-trade with the Nets: 4 years, $164.3 million

$38,199,000$40,108,950$42,018,900$43,928,850

The guaranteed number could end up being slightly less depending on the final structure if Brooklyn pulls the "Miami maneuver" and ties a portion of the salary to incentives in a salary cap loophole to fit in DeAndre Jordan. It will end up being a double sign-and-trade with D'Angelo Russell to allow Golden State to get something back, with Brooklyn receiving a protected 1st and the flexibility to sign DeAndre Jordan.

KD delivered on the ultimate goal twice in his brief stay in the Bay.
Klay Thompson re-signs with the Warriors: 5 years, $189.9 million
$32,742,000$35,361,360$37,980,720$40,600,080$43,219,440

This one was never really in doubt, even in the wake of his tragic ACL tear. The only real question was whether the last year would be a player option or even if a no-trade clause would be added, but Anthony Slater reports that it's just a straight five year pact for
the 29 year old. The original Warriors core will remain in tact for at least another season, with the two offensive center pieces locked in through 2022 now.


Kemba Walker signs with the Celtics: 4 years, $140.8 million

$32,742,000$34,379,100$36,016,200$37,653,300

It remains to be seen whether the double sign-and-trade with Charlotte will end up being a three way deal with Brooklyn to allow Boston to operate as an over the cap team with full access to the MLE, but even if not, this is a solid rebound move in the wake of their free agent losses. With some similarities with Kyrie Irving, Walker can provide a lot of the same offense with his versatile shooting, as he hit a career high 260 3's last season. There's a chance that his style of leadership could better help Boston's young players develop, which will be important as they get ready for new contract extensions. While the back end of this deal may look bad for a small guard that's currently 29, especially on the defensive end, this is probably the best move they could've made in their situation.


Jimmy Butler agrees to a sign-and-trade with the Heat: 4 years, $140.8 million

Heat receive:
Jimmy Butler$32,742,000$34,379,100$36,016,200$37,653,300

76ers receive:

Josh Richardson$10,116,576$10,865,952$11,615,328

After initially involving Dallas, it ended up involving the Clippers and Trail Blazers.


Kyrie Irving signs with the Nets: 4 years, $140.8 million

$32,742,000$34,379,100$36,016,200$37,653,300

Like Durant, the guaranteed number could end up being slightly less depending on the final structure if Brooklyn pulls the "Miami maneuver" and ties a portion of the salary to incentives in a salary cap loophole to fit in DeAndre Jordan.


Tobias Harris re-signs with the 76ers: 5 years, $180 million

$31,034,483$33,517,241$36,000,000$38,482,759$40,965,517


Full five years with no options, per Woj.


Khris Middleton re-signs with the Bucks: 5 years, $178 million
$30,689,655$33,144,828$35,600,000$38,055,172$40,510,345


Damian Lillard signs an extension with the Trail Blazers: 4 years, $196 million

$29,802,321$31,626,953$43,750,000$47,250,000$50,750,000$54,250,000

Kristaps Porzingis re-signs with the Mavericks: 5 years, $158.3 million

$27,285,000$29,467,800$31,650,600$33,833,400$36,016,200

D'Angelo Russell agrees to a sign-and-trade with the Warriors: 4 years, $117.3 million

Warriors receive:
D'Angelo Russell$27,285,000$28,649,250$30,013,500$31,377,750
Shabazz Napier$1,845,301
Treveon Graham$1,645,357


Nets receive:
A future protected 1st 

Between Napier and Graham, $3,194,200 of their salaries will have to become guaranteed in order to match Durant's salary. Establishes a hard cap and leaves them only around $6.4 million below it, pending a trade of Shaun Livingston's partially guaranteed contract.


Andre Iguodala traded to the Grizzlies

Grizzlies get:
Andre Iguodala$17,185,185
2024 1st round pick, protected 1-4, then protected for #1 in 2025 then unprotected

Will use part of the Mike Conley Trade Exception.


Al Horford signs with the 76ers: 4 years, $109 million

$25,348,837$26,616,279$27,883,721$29,151,163

Has $12 million in bonuses to get to the "$109 million" that was initially reported.


July 2nd update: Turns out that the $109 million actually is the base salary, and the fact that it's only $97 million guaranteed is based on the fourth year being a partial guarantee tied to team performance, per Derek Bodner. I have adjusted my estimates accordingly from the initial $22.6 million number for this season.


Harrison Barnes re-signs with the Kings: 4 years, $85 million

$24,147,727$22,215,909$20,284,091$18,352,273

Descending salaries, per Amick


Nikola Vucevic re-signs with the Magic: 4 years, $100 million

$22,321,429$24,107,143$25,892,857$27,678,571

They would only have had less than $19 million in room if they let him and Terrence Ross go, so it’s understandable that they decided to run it back with a team that finally returned to the playoffs in their first year under Steve Clifford. Vucevic earned this contract with a career year at age 28, was their leading scorer, and provides important shooting at the center spot on a roster that’s in need of some spacing. With Mo Bamba still a bit raw, this deal makes sense.


Malcolm Brogdon agrees to a sign-and-trade with the Pacers: 4 years, $86 million

$20,000,000$21,000,000$22,000,000$23,000,000

Bucks receive:

2020 1st round pick, protected 1-14 through 2025, then unprotected (per Zach Lowe)
Two 2nd round picks.

This was one of the first ones that really came out of left field for me, but I like it, even with the slight overpay that comes in restricted free agency. The former Rookie of the Year is the ideal 3-and-D guard who can also run an offense steadily, and when Victor Oladipo gets back healthy, the two of them should complement each other well to form an effective back court on both ends. This deal isn’t without risks between the draft assets and the fact that Brogdon already has a questionable injury history as he turns 27 next season, but the fit is much stronger than the rumored Ricky Rubio interest.


Julius Randle signs with the Knicks: 3 years, $63 million

$20,000,000$21,000,000$22,000,000

Final year is a team option, per Haynes


Terry Rozier agrees to a sign-and-trade with the Hornets: 3 years, $58 million
$18,412,698$19,333,333$20,253,968

Bojan Bogdanovic signs with the Jazz: 4 years, $73 million
$16,976,744$17,825,581$18,674,419$19,523,256

Favors' non-guaranteed contract needs to be traded first, and then they could still have a sliver of space to sign a couple of their 2nd round picks to deals longer than the 2 year minimum before using the Room MLE.

Derrick Favors traded to the Pelicans for 2021 and 2023 2nd round picks
Derrick Favors$16,900,000

New Orleans couldn't risk another team with space or a large trade exception claiming him on waivers, so they are smart to trade the extra picks they got from the Warriors during last week's draft to secure an effective big man who is only turning 28 next month with a team friendly contract. It's an even better job by Utah leveraging the Pelicans' interest into more than just the token 2nd rounder for a guy they were likely going to cut anyway.


Jonas Valanciunas re-signs with the Grizzlies: 3 years, $45 million
$16,304,348$15,000,000$13,695,652

Descending salaries, per Herrington.


Ricky Rubio signs with the Suns: 3 years, $51 million

$16,190,476$17,000,000$17,809,524

Need to make another move if they want to keep Oubre's cap hold.


Rudy Gay re-signs with the Spurs: 2 years, $32 million

$15,384,615$16,615,385

I’m happy for Gay to get raises after opting out in back to back summers after tearing his Achilles in 2017. His outside shot was as good as ever another year away from that injury with a career high 3P% of 40.2%, and he posted a career high in rebounding at age 32 thanks to his ability to play as a stretch four at times. San Antonio basically would have only had the MLE to try and replace him, so this is a solid move for them, especially since they were able to keep it to just 2 years. 


Bobby Portis signs with the Knicks: 2 years, $31 million

$15,121,951$15,878,049

2nd year is a team option, per Marks.


Thaddeus Young signs with the Bulls: 3 years, $41 million

$13,015,873$13,666,667$14,317,460

This one caught me off guard a bit since they just added Otto Porter next to Lauri Markannen a few months ago, but this is a fair contract for the 31 year old Young. He’s always been a versatile defender that can do a little bit of everything, and if he’s returning to a sixth man role that he once excelled at in Philly, his subpar defensive rebounding rate shouldn’t hurt as much. If Jim Boylen is willing to try some creative lineups with his front court pieces, this fit could end up working out well.


Dewayne Dedmon signs with the Kings: 3 years, $41 million

$13,015,873$13,666,667$14,317,460

Partial guarantee on third year, per Amick



J.J. Redick signs with the Pelicans: 2 years, $26.5 million
$12,926,829$13,573,171

Patrick Beverley re-signs with the Clippers: 3 years, $40 million

$12,698,413$13,333,333$13,968,254

The prototype for 3-and-D point guards gets to cash in at long last after he was on one of the most team friendly contracts following his initial breakout in Houston. LA has a lot of options at guard, but none with his kind of defensive intensity, making him an effective tag-team partner with Lou Williams. Covering Beverley’s age 31-33 season, this contract shouldn’t be cumbersome at all, and it could even be front loaded it since he’ll only count as his $9.55 million cap hold until officially signing in order to preserve their space for Kawhi Leonard and any other potential moves.


Trevor Ariza signs with the Kings: 2 years, $25 million

$12,195,122$12,804,878

Partial guarantee on second year, per Amick.


Brook Lopez re-signs with the Bucks: 4 years, $52 million

$12,093,023$12,697,674$13,302,326$13,906,977


Terrence Ross re-signs with the Magic: 4 years, $54 million
$12,053,571$13,017,857$13,982,143$14,946,429

After playing just 24 games in 2018, Ross had a career year as a sixth man who provides vital shooting on a roster that’s more titled towards defense. While he has his flaws, this is about the going rate for a 28 year old wing, and like I said above with Vucevic, they would’ve been a bit limited in trying to sign a replacement. Instead, they retained another solid piece,, albeit on maybe a longer contract than preferable, and were able to use the MLE elsewhere.


Dwight Powell signs an extension with the Mavericks: 3 years, $33 million

$10,259,375$10,185,185$11,000,000$11,814,815

Reggie Bullock signs with the Knicks: 2 years, $21 million

$10,243,902$10,756,098

2nd year is a team option, per Marks.


Jeremy Lamb signs with Pacers: 3 years $31.5 million

$10,000,000$10,500,000$11,000,000

I wasn’t sure what kind of contract to expect for Lamb as longtime readers will know I’ve always been a fan of his game only to be disappointed. However, the 27 year old has seemed to put it all together the last couple of years to become a well-rounded wing you can comfortably put in your rotation, so this is a nice deal for both sides. I think he’ll be fine as a starter so that they don’t have to rush Oladipo back, and then Lamb can be his backup who can also shift up to play next to him occasionally at small forward with his tremendous length. With Brogdon and T.J. Warren also possessing some position flexibility, Indiana is putting together a sneakily good team that still has the Room MLE and up to around $6 million in space to add a couple more pieces.


Taj Gibson signs with the Knicks: 2 years, $20 million

$9,756,098$10,243,902

2nd year is a team option, per Marks.


Al-Farouq Aminu signs with the Magic: 3 years, $29 million

$9,258,000$9,720,900$10,183,800

Find someone who loves you the way John Hammond loves players with long wingspans. Jokes aside, Orlando is now stacked with forwards that will get in the passing lanes with Aminu likely backing up both Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac and last week’s pick, Chuma Okeke, an intriguing piece for the future. While the need could be questioned, getting a starting caliber player at the MLE is a solid value even at the cost of hard capping them. That probably won’t come into play as I have them at just below the luxury tax after today’s moves with just the BAE left to use if they were willing to cross that line.



DeAndre Jordan signs with the Nets: 4 years, $40 million
$9,258,000$9,720,900$10,183,800$10,646,700

Estimating MLE value for now.


George Hill re-signs with the Bucks: 3 years, $29 million

$9,206,349$9,666,667$10,126,984

About the equivalent of the full MLE that they don't have, so would need to stretch Leuer as they operate as an under the cap team.


Thomas Bryant re-signs with the Wizards: 3 years, $25 million

$7,716,049$8,333,333$8,950,617


Good for him getting cashed out just a year after he was shockingly waived by the Lakers. I’ve thought he was underrated going back to the 2017 draft, but that can’t be said any longer after this surprisingly large contract. He’s only turning 22 in a month, so he can certainly live up to it and become a key piece inside as Washington transitions to their next window of competitiveness, even if they might have been able to let the market dictate his price in restricted free agency.


Derrick Rose signs with the Pistons: 2 years, $15 million
$7,317,073$7,682,927

Using the majority of the full MLE here hard caps them, but that shouldn’t be a big deal since the luxury tax has typically served as a cap on their spending anyway. It’s not a bad use of resources as Rose had a resurgent year at age 30 and can finally be considered a viable threat from deep after a career high 37% 3FG%. That could allow him to play alongside Reggie Jackson at times in addition to backing him up, and they needed an improvement in that spot. 

DeMarre Carroll signs with the Spurs: 2 year, $13 million
$6,341,463$6,658,537

This could be the Taxpayer MLE if it ends up slightly less than reported, but otherwise San Antonio will be hard capped for using part of the regular MLE, which shouldn’t be a problem as they’re now projected to be $7 million below the tax line as things stand. While they can get away with playing guard-heavy  lineups, a true forward was needed to guard the bigger wings out there, and Carroll can still help in that regard despite turning 33 next month. The 3-point shooting isn’t what it once was, but coming from a Spurs line of coaches in his past stops, he should round out their rotation well at a solid price.

July 6th update: Woj reports that the deal has now been changed to 3 years, $21 million instead. That's a little bit more of a concern considering his age, but let's see what the final details are first. For now, this is my updated projection:

$6,666,667$7,000,000$7,333,333

Rodney Hood re-signs with the Trail Blazers: 2 years, $12 million

$5,718,000$6,003,900

There was some initial confusion with a "$16 million" report, but it's the taxpayer MLE, per Jason Quick, which was their only avenue to sign someone to more than the minimum as they delve into the luxury tax. Turning 27 at the start of the season, Hood got to put his talents on display in the playoffs and could be in line to start at small forward to provide more shooting and passing for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, so this deal is more than fair. The second year being a player option allows him the opportunity to earn a bigger pay day when he’ll have a higher form of Bird rights in Portland and there won’t be many top free agents on the market.


Garrett Temple signs with the Nets: 2 years, "$10 million"

$4,767,000$5,005,350

Reported before the Durant decision, I was anticipating that it's actually the Room MLE amount, and it basically has to be that resource now once they use up all of their cap space. Temple’s 3-point 
prowess isn’t quite reliable enough to be considered a true 3-and-D wing, but he’s a tough, rotation-caliber piece at a decent value. Surprisingly 33 already, getting two years at this rate is a nice last payday for him.


 Ed Davis signs with the Jazz: 2 years, "$10 million"

$4,767,000$5,005,350

Another year, another bargain contract for one of the most underrated big men in the league. The 30 year old just posted a career high in rebounding to boost his career per-36 average to an even 12.0, and he’s now at a 24.7% rate on just the defensive end. He won’t wow you on offense but finishes well inside, as evidenced by his career high 61.6% FG% and 63.2% TS% last season, and should be a great 6th man in Utah. In a similar role to the departing Favors, Davis is mobile enough to potentially play alongside Gobert in addition to backing him up, providing some lineup flexibility. Despite the reported number, this will have to be the Room MLE once they use up their space, just like when he signed in Brooklyn a year ago.



Mike Scott re-signs with the 76ers: 2 years, $9.8 million
$4,767,000$5,005,350

I appreciated the correct reporting on this one being the equivalent of the Room MLE. I like that for Philly since they could either use that after using up their space or his Non-Bird rights if they end up staying over the cap, even if that seemed unlikely. Scott provides more shooting off the bench that they need, especially at forward, and his uneven rebounding rates can be made up for on this team. About to turn 31, he should return value on this deal and still have a chance at another decent contract after it.


Robin Lopez signs with the Bucks: 2 years, $9.8 million

$4,767,000$5,005,350

Another Room MLE deal.


Jamal Murray signs an extension with the Nuggets: 5 years, $169.65 million

$4,444,746$29,250,000$31,590,000$33,930,000$36,270,000$38,610,000

These numbers are the projected max in 2020 for a player with under 7 years of experience based on a $117 million cap. While I can't say that I thought of Murray as a max player that gets locked up as soon as he's eligible for an extension, there is some ancillary benefit to locking up a core player right away. The opportunity cost is that this number is $26 million more than what his cap hold would be next summer, so they won't be major free agent players when $44.5 million comes off of the books between Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee. You can now count on the 22 year old that helped lead Denver to the #2 seed to continue playing a beautiful two-man game with Nikola Jokic for years to come, though.


Nicolo Melli signs with the Pelicans: 2 years, $8 million

$3,902,439$4,097,561

Yet another shrewd move by David Griffin to add a 28 year old veteran from European to space the floor from potentially either big spot. Melli has shot at least 40% from deep in each of the past four seasons while posting strong rebounding rates, so he could be an ideal fit to aid Zion Williamson's development. The beauty of this deal is that it could fit into the Room MLE if needed instead of using cap space if needed as they maneuver around the market with their remaining cap space and non-guaranteed contracts.


Danuel House re-signs with the Rockets: 3 years, $11.1 million

$3,523,810$3,700,000$3,876,190

This would seem to be a part of the MLE, and if it is the taxpayer version to avoid the hard cup, they'll have close to $2.2 million left of it to use still. This is a great deal for the 26 year old House to secure after being waived by multiple teams the last couple of years and playing on two-way contracts to get his opportunity. He bet on himself by rejecting Houston’s initial 3 year offer that was just for $4.2 million (essentially his minimum) and was rewarded with this contract instead after hitting 41.6% of his 3’s this season. He’s been a little streaky in maintaining that at the lower levels, but he should prove to be a solid rotation player as a tough shooter on the wings.


Mario Hezonja signs with the Trail Blazers: 2 years, minimum contract
$1,737,145$1,977,011

The former 5th overall pick's shooting touch abandoned him a bit as he got to stretch his wings on the tanking Knicks, but you can't argue about this price for a talented 24 year old. With Aminu already out the door and Jake Layman potentially following suit, Portland needed some more depth on the wings, so this is definitely a worthwhile flier as Hezonja did manage to post career highs in his rebounding and assist rates with his usual tantalizing flashes.

Gerald Green re-signs with the Rockets: 1 year deal

All but certain to be the minimum, which will be $2,564,753 for him but only counts as $1,620,564 for Houston. The Houston native wasn't as effective as the previous season when he was a pleasant mid-season surprise due to a drop in his 3 point shooting and rebounding, but you could do worse than filling out the roster with familiar on just the minimum. He's always a threat to make some splash plays as a spark plug off the bench, and if he's not than Mike D'Antoni isn't afraid to have a quick hook.

Mike Muscala signs with the Thunder: no details yet.


Nerlens Noel re-signs with the Thunder...and then backs out to reconsider his options.


Your usual reminder that while agreed upon, none of these deals can actually become official until July 6th, which still leaves some wiggle room.


Nikola Mirotic signs with Barcelona

A skilled 28 year old that was looking at quality contract options walking away from the NBA was the first real shocker for me, especially considering that he was formerly a Real Madrid player, but I'm sure he has his reasons.

No comments:

Post a Comment