Pelicans receive:
2021 1st round pick (protected 9-30, then unprotected in 2022)
Right to swap 2023 1st round picks (unprotected)
2024 1st round pick (unprotected, can be deferred to 2025)
Right to swap 2023 1st round picks (unprotected)
2024 1st round pick (unprotected, can be deferred to 2025)
(Player option/Team option)
It finally happened: New Orleans relented and traded their franchise player to his preferred destination of Los Angeles. While you never want to give up a perennial All-NBA performer, this is a serious haul that new shot-caller David Griffin negotiated in return to make this deal about as big of a win as you could hope for. There are still some moving parts, but now that there are more details about the exact picks; Julius Randle's player option; and perhaps most importantly, the timing of the trade, we can get a better look at the deal from both sides.
Look at the years of those picks again. Stretching out how far down the line they are increases the upside of them, especially since they are unprotected after the 2021 pick that could only be good thanks to the reverse protections. Including a pick swap on top of three 1st rounders is reminiscent of the infamous Celtics-Nets trade that ended up as volatile as possible. At just 26, Davis is just entering his prime compared to Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry, of course, but LeBron James turns 35 this year and could leave in the summer of 2021 to boot. It may not be likely, but there's a real chance that The Brow doesn't end up enjoying his season there and leaves after one year like Dwight Howard, leaving the Lakers in a disastrous situation resulting in multiple lottery picks on top of the #4 pick already guaranteed in this month's draft.
That pick could be moved again for veteran help, but as it stand, the Pelicans could add a talent like Jarrett Culver or Cam Reddish on the wing to go with their suddenly exciting young core around presumptive #1 pick Zion Williamson. Brandon Ingram turns just 22 in September and has flashed intriguing playmaking for a 6'9" wing since being drafted 2nd overall in 2016. Something to monitor with him in the last year of his rookie contract is whether Griffin initiates extension talks this summer or waits until restricted free agency next year after seeing how he performs in a new environment coming off of the concerning deep vein thrombosis in his arm. Another soon to be 22 year old, Lonzo Ball could show why he was also a #2 pick now that he's away from the media circus of his hometown Lakers, and it's worth noting that they were 25-20 when he started last year compared to 12-25 otherwise. As a 6'6" point guard, he's a nice fit with the 6'4" Jrue Holiday, who only just turned 29 himself and has played a good amount of shooting guard in recent years thanks to his defensive tenacity, and having all of these passers around Williamson will surely help his development. Getting Josh Hart, 24, to also be included provides a nice, cost-controlled 3-and-D wing in the rotation for years to come as a great glue guy. All three prospects need to improve their shooting efficiency to become more consistent contributors and reach their potential, but there's a lot to like between them and all of the draft capital. Credit to ownership for getting over any hard feelings around giving in to the team AD wanted to go to and taking the best deal they could possibly get.
And yet, despite giving up so much when potentially just bidding against themselves, the Lakers are winners in this deal since they're getting Anthony freaking Davis. Given all that's happened around the team's front office in recent months and the uncertainty of the top free agents, they felt the pressure to make a move now, and they probably overpaid as a result. For instance, the only future 1st rounder they now have available to trade is one that conveys two years after the 2024/2025 pick due to the Stepien Rule. This could absolutely blow up in their face like the Nets' trade, but you know what? The Brow is worth the risk.
The do-it-all big man could end up being the best player King James ever plays with, an ideal pick and roll partner that is also an All-Defense performer. His arrival alone potentially vaults them into becoming title favorites now that the Warriors have suffered such catastrophic injuries. That all-important timing of the trade I mentioned will determine how much flexibility they'll have to turn into a contender. As it stands, the only other players under contract are Kyle Kuzma and inexperienced rookies Moritz Wagner, Isaac Bonga, and Jemerrio Jones, the last of whom is on a non-guaranteed contract. Before this trade, they could get to about $32.5 million in cap room by renouncing all of their free agents and waiving Jones based on the projected $109 million salary cap. Though that's just shy of a max contract for a free agent with 7-9 years of experience like Kyrie Irving, it's close enough for a minor move to get within range, and that kind of signing would still theoretically be possible if this trade isn't officially executed until August.
The combined salaries of Ball, Ingram, and Hart aren't enough to match Davis' before the draft, so he needs to be traded into cap room once the new league year starts. However, LA could pick the player New Orleans instructs them to on draft night, sign him on July 1st, use up their $32.5 million in space, and then complete the trade, aggregating the #4 pick's $7.1 million salary to match contracts 30 days after it is signed. That's how the Cavs traded Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love after signing LeBron, but having so many parties wait that long is asking a lot. Hence why that Woj report this morning has the deal being completed as soon as possible on July 6th.
In that scenario, they're more limited and things instead hinge on whether or not Davis waives his 15% trade bonus. That $4,063,953 has to be paid by New Orleans, and with the way this trade saga was handled by his agent Rich Paul, they could have communicated that it would be waived if he is traded to his team team of choice. That's the difference of whether LA can get to about $27.7 or $23.7 million to operate with. The larger number could be enough to convince a star like Kemba Walker to take a 4 year, $119 million deal to compete for a title. Otherwise, they would probably be better off splitting the remaining amount among multiple players and/or holding onto the cap holds of their own free agents like Reggie Bullock and Tyson Chandler to re-sign them once they're over the cap. They could also use $5.6 million of their cap space to renegotiate Davis' contract to his $32.7 max and extend him, but that doesn't appear to be on the table. In any case, the Lakers will need to be smarter than last year with how they use cap space to fill out the roster and not use the Room Mid-Level Exception of around $4.8 million on someone like Lance Stephenson again since that's their last resource to make an addition.
June 18th update: Woj now reports that they'll try to still use max cap space before completing the deal on July 6th by including the smaller salaries of Wagner, Bonga, and Jones, whose contract would need to become guaranteed to aggregate. Timing is still key as they'd need to sign the player first to use up their cap room, and then complete the now larger trade. Coincidentally enough, I mentioned the possibility of needing those salaries to match in my initial reaction, but I didn't include it here. Go figure.
Finishing back with the Pelicans, they could get to about $18 million in room before the trade is completed now that the news came out today that Randle is declining his $9.1 million player option. Unless waiting the 30 days was part of the negotiations, they have no incentive to accommodate LA as that will move up to $22.8 million once the deal is done (if they waive their non-guaranteed contracts). They could keep Randle's $10.4 million cap hold and re-sign him after using their cap space since he's coming off a career year at age 24 and obviously knows his former Lakers teammates well. If he decides to leave, I'd love to see them add a stretch big like Brook Lopez, who is set to earn a nice pay day, to provide much needed spacing for their young pieces. Could they reunite with Nikola Mirotic after doing him a solid in sending him to a playoff contender at the trade deadline? Griffin certainly has a lot to work with now that he's pulled the trigger on this huge package, and this could turn out to be a trade that works out well for both sides.
June 29th update:
In the wake of the Lakers adding a 2022 2nd round pick to this deal in order to expand the deal and send off Wagner, Bonga, and Jones to Washington and Davis waiving his trade kicker, everyone has been wondering what they can do with over $32 million in cap space now. (As an aside, this is a solid play by the Wizards with their limited flexibility to use a trade exception to add a pick and a couple young players that were drafted just last year.) I've been hammering home the point that it would still leave them around $700K short of a true max slot for players with 7-9 years of experience like Irving or Kawhi Leonard, and now that the salary cap has been set at $104,140,000, it's officially $593,017 short. Maybe the difference between $138.24 million and $140.79 million doesn't really matter over four years, and Davis giving up over $4 million, along with LA giving up yet another asset, would indicate that they already have an understanding of how it that extra $8 million in space will be used.
Irving going to Brooklyn is all but official now, but there is some chance that Leonard could come home to join the stars in LA. And if you have the chance to add arguably the best player in the league right now, you take it and figure out the rest of the team later. If not, though, then it's probably best to split the available money up among multiple players since they currently only have James, Davis, and Kuzma in place. I mentioned Bullock above, and this extra space allows them to keep his $4,750,000 cap hold on the books and still have the space required ($27,285,000) for a max free agent with 6 or fewer years of experience like former Lakers #2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell. In fact, they can also keep the rights to restricted free agent Alex Caruso, who has shown nice versatility on his two-way contract, and still have over a million in space that they could use to sign 2nd round pick Talen Tucker-Horton to a 3 or 4 year contract instead of being restricted to just 2 years on the minimum.
The timing of everything is critical and why today's news was huge that the Nets would be willing to renounce their rights to Russell as soon as they secure Irving instead of playing hard ball in his restricted free agency. They'd probably still prefer to gain an asset in a sign-and-trade for him somewhere, but if they make him unrestricted, then the Lakers can execute the signings of him and Tucker-Horton first to use up their cap space before completing the Davis trade. Then they would be able to exceed the cap to sign Bullock and Caruso using Bird and Early Bird rights, respectively, and still have the $4,767,000 Room MLE to add another piece. That could provide a backup big man or perhaps they give it to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on yet another one year deal with the understanding that they'd have Bird rights with him next summer to give a larger contract then. In any case, a playmaker who can also shoot like Russell and a 3-and-D wing like Bullock would fill out the starting lineup perfectly while Caruso, Tucker-Horton, the Room MLE signing, and minimum contracts complete the bench. That's a pretty formidable team on paper, and while it's been a bit of a bumpy road to get to this potential point, the Lakers are now set up to put together just such a lineup.
Look at the years of those picks again. Stretching out how far down the line they are increases the upside of them, especially since they are unprotected after the 2021 pick that could only be good thanks to the reverse protections. Including a pick swap on top of three 1st rounders is reminiscent of the infamous Celtics-Nets trade that ended up as volatile as possible. At just 26, Davis is just entering his prime compared to Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry, of course, but LeBron James turns 35 this year and could leave in the summer of 2021 to boot. It may not be likely, but there's a real chance that The Brow doesn't end up enjoying his season there and leaves after one year like Dwight Howard, leaving the Lakers in a disastrous situation resulting in multiple lottery picks on top of the #4 pick already guaranteed in this month's draft.
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| The Lakers are betting on this pair lasting the long haul. |
That pick could be moved again for veteran help, but as it stand, the Pelicans could add a talent like Jarrett Culver or Cam Reddish on the wing to go with their suddenly exciting young core around presumptive #1 pick Zion Williamson. Brandon Ingram turns just 22 in September and has flashed intriguing playmaking for a 6'9" wing since being drafted 2nd overall in 2016. Something to monitor with him in the last year of his rookie contract is whether Griffin initiates extension talks this summer or waits until restricted free agency next year after seeing how he performs in a new environment coming off of the concerning deep vein thrombosis in his arm. Another soon to be 22 year old, Lonzo Ball could show why he was also a #2 pick now that he's away from the media circus of his hometown Lakers, and it's worth noting that they were 25-20 when he started last year compared to 12-25 otherwise. As a 6'6" point guard, he's a nice fit with the 6'4" Jrue Holiday, who only just turned 29 himself and has played a good amount of shooting guard in recent years thanks to his defensive tenacity, and having all of these passers around Williamson will surely help his development. Getting Josh Hart, 24, to also be included provides a nice, cost-controlled 3-and-D wing in the rotation for years to come as a great glue guy. All three prospects need to improve their shooting efficiency to become more consistent contributors and reach their potential, but there's a lot to like between them and all of the draft capital. Credit to ownership for getting over any hard feelings around giving in to the team AD wanted to go to and taking the best deal they could possibly get.
And yet, despite giving up so much when potentially just bidding against themselves, the Lakers are winners in this deal since they're getting Anthony freaking Davis. Given all that's happened around the team's front office in recent months and the uncertainty of the top free agents, they felt the pressure to make a move now, and they probably overpaid as a result. For instance, the only future 1st rounder they now have available to trade is one that conveys two years after the 2024/2025 pick due to the Stepien Rule. This could absolutely blow up in their face like the Nets' trade, but you know what? The Brow is worth the risk.
The do-it-all big man could end up being the best player King James ever plays with, an ideal pick and roll partner that is also an All-Defense performer. His arrival alone potentially vaults them into becoming title favorites now that the Warriors have suffered such catastrophic injuries. That all-important timing of the trade I mentioned will determine how much flexibility they'll have to turn into a contender. As it stands, the only other players under contract are Kyle Kuzma and inexperienced rookies Moritz Wagner, Isaac Bonga, and Jemerrio Jones, the last of whom is on a non-guaranteed contract. Before this trade, they could get to about $32.5 million in cap room by renouncing all of their free agents and waiving Jones based on the projected $109 million salary cap. Though that's just shy of a max contract for a free agent with 7-9 years of experience like Kyrie Irving, it's close enough for a minor move to get within range, and that kind of signing would still theoretically be possible if this trade isn't officially executed until August.
The combined salaries of Ball, Ingram, and Hart aren't enough to match Davis' before the draft, so he needs to be traded into cap room once the new league year starts. However, LA could pick the player New Orleans instructs them to on draft night, sign him on July 1st, use up their $32.5 million in space, and then complete the trade, aggregating the #4 pick's $7.1 million salary to match contracts 30 days after it is signed. That's how the Cavs traded Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love after signing LeBron, but having so many parties wait that long is asking a lot. Hence why that Woj report this morning has the deal being completed as soon as possible on July 6th.
In that scenario, they're more limited and things instead hinge on whether or not Davis waives his 15% trade bonus. That $4,063,953 has to be paid by New Orleans, and with the way this trade saga was handled by his agent Rich Paul, they could have communicated that it would be waived if he is traded to his team team of choice. That's the difference of whether LA can get to about $27.7 or $23.7 million to operate with. The larger number could be enough to convince a star like Kemba Walker to take a 4 year, $119 million deal to compete for a title. Otherwise, they would probably be better off splitting the remaining amount among multiple players and/or holding onto the cap holds of their own free agents like Reggie Bullock and Tyson Chandler to re-sign them once they're over the cap. They could also use $5.6 million of their cap space to renegotiate Davis' contract to his $32.7 max and extend him, but that doesn't appear to be on the table. In any case, the Lakers will need to be smarter than last year with how they use cap space to fill out the roster and not use the Room Mid-Level Exception of around $4.8 million on someone like Lance Stephenson again since that's their last resource to make an addition.
June 18th update: Woj now reports that they'll try to still use max cap space before completing the deal on July 6th by including the smaller salaries of Wagner, Bonga, and Jones, whose contract would need to become guaranteed to aggregate. Timing is still key as they'd need to sign the player first to use up their cap room, and then complete the now larger trade. Coincidentally enough, I mentioned the possibility of needing those salaries to match in my initial reaction, but I didn't include it here. Go figure.
Finishing back with the Pelicans, they could get to about $18 million in room before the trade is completed now that the news came out today that Randle is declining his $9.1 million player option. Unless waiting the 30 days was part of the negotiations, they have no incentive to accommodate LA as that will move up to $22.8 million once the deal is done (if they waive their non-guaranteed contracts). They could keep Randle's $10.4 million cap hold and re-sign him after using their cap space since he's coming off a career year at age 24 and obviously knows his former Lakers teammates well. If he decides to leave, I'd love to see them add a stretch big like Brook Lopez, who is set to earn a nice pay day, to provide much needed spacing for their young pieces. Could they reunite with Nikola Mirotic after doing him a solid in sending him to a playoff contender at the trade deadline? Griffin certainly has a lot to work with now that he's pulled the trigger on this huge package, and this could turn out to be a trade that works out well for both sides.
June 29th update:
In the wake of the Lakers adding a 2022 2nd round pick to this deal in order to expand the deal and send off Wagner, Bonga, and Jones to Washington and Davis waiving his trade kicker, everyone has been wondering what they can do with over $32 million in cap space now. (As an aside, this is a solid play by the Wizards with their limited flexibility to use a trade exception to add a pick and a couple young players that were drafted just last year.) I've been hammering home the point that it would still leave them around $700K short of a true max slot for players with 7-9 years of experience like Irving or Kawhi Leonard, and now that the salary cap has been set at $104,140,000, it's officially $593,017 short. Maybe the difference between $138.24 million and $140.79 million doesn't really matter over four years, and Davis giving up over $4 million, along with LA giving up yet another asset, would indicate that they already have an understanding of how it that extra $8 million in space will be used.
Irving going to Brooklyn is all but official now, but there is some chance that Leonard could come home to join the stars in LA. And if you have the chance to add arguably the best player in the league right now, you take it and figure out the rest of the team later. If not, though, then it's probably best to split the available money up among multiple players since they currently only have James, Davis, and Kuzma in place. I mentioned Bullock above, and this extra space allows them to keep his $4,750,000 cap hold on the books and still have the space required ($27,285,000) for a max free agent with 6 or fewer years of experience like former Lakers #2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell. In fact, they can also keep the rights to restricted free agent Alex Caruso, who has shown nice versatility on his two-way contract, and still have over a million in space that they could use to sign 2nd round pick Talen Tucker-Horton to a 3 or 4 year contract instead of being restricted to just 2 years on the minimum.
The timing of everything is critical and why today's news was huge that the Nets would be willing to renounce their rights to Russell as soon as they secure Irving instead of playing hard ball in his restricted free agency. They'd probably still prefer to gain an asset in a sign-and-trade for him somewhere, but if they make him unrestricted, then the Lakers can execute the signings of him and Tucker-Horton first to use up their cap space before completing the Davis trade. Then they would be able to exceed the cap to sign Bullock and Caruso using Bird and Early Bird rights, respectively, and still have the $4,767,000 Room MLE to add another piece. That could provide a backup big man or perhaps they give it to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope on yet another one year deal with the understanding that they'd have Bird rights with him next summer to give a larger contract then. In any case, a playmaker who can also shoot like Russell and a 3-and-D wing like Bullock would fill out the starting lineup perfectly while Caruso, Tucker-Horton, the Room MLE signing, and minimum contracts complete the bench. That's a pretty formidable team on paper, and while it's been a bit of a bumpy road to get to this potential point, the Lakers are now set up to put together just such a lineup.
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