2017 NFL Wild Card Picks

So close. That's all I could help but think when the dust cleared and I finished one game back of first place in my 38 person picks pool last week. Probably like the Ravens and their fans replaying that wild Bengals touchdown on 4th and 12 (!), I just kept thinking about if just one thing had gone differently, whether it be the hapless Broncos being able to beat the Chiefs backups in Mile High, news about David Fales taking almost all of the snaps at quarterback for the Dolphins being more widespread, or me not changing a pick or two at the last minute due to injury reports like the Packers in Week 4, then I would have either won outright or tied for the top price. Even though I still received a handsome reward for being runner up, it's hard to get the taste out of your mouth knowing you were that close, but alas. I'll just heed the words of noted philosopher Elsa and "Let it go" as the calendar flips to a new year and move on to the next phase of the NFL season. I'll need a clear head because some might say that these are the picks that separate the cream of the crop...Not anyone on this site, but, you know, some people.

(PS since the picks pool is finished on CBS Sports, I'll be using the current odds on VegasInsider.com)

(PPS before fully moving on to the postseason, I did want to look back to the regular season one final time to point out that my over/under picks for win totals before the season were a solid 21-11)

Last week: 11-5
Season total: 148-108

Chiefs -8.5 versus Titans

Kansas City hasn't given up more than 20 points at home all year en route to a 6-2 record in Arrow Head, so the question is will they approach 29 points themselves? Well, they've averaged 28.6 in the five games since offensive coordinator Matt Nagy started calling plays rather than Andy Reid, and if you take out last week's exhibition with Patrick Maholmes and the backups, that numbers is exactly 29 points per game. Throw in the fact that Tennessee ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass and is facing this year's version of Alex Smith that finally isn't afraid to let it loose down the field like he's always been capable of, and I think you have the recipe for success. The Chiefs' #32 ranked run defense DVOA facing Derrick Henry with a full workload is a bit scary, but I like KC to go ahead early and keep some separation to hopefully take the running game out of it. Let the track race between Tyreek Hill and Adoree' Jackson begin!

Also, if you've asked why Alex Smith was so much better this year than in the past, it's mostly because he pushed it downfield more and was more successful than he's ever been at throwing the deep ball. pic.twitter.com/EdXJ38DEK0

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) January 5, 2018

Rams -6 versus Falcons

Out of all the games in this slate, this one probably has me the most nervous because Atlanta is the more experienced team that proved last year that they can go deep in the postseason, and despite being frustrating to go with against the spread, they did go 6-2 over the back half of the season. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman could take advantage of the DVOA's #22 run defense, and Julio Jones is always a threat to be the best player on the field. That being said, Todd Gurley was arguably the league's MVP this year and has tremendously improved his work in the passing game since he came into the league, totaling 64 catches for 788 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 15 games to make life easier for Jared Goff. Considering that Atlanta allowed the most receptions to running backs, this could be another big Gurley game, and as Mike Lombardi of The Ringer has point out throughout the year, they like to pour it on when they win. Seven of their 11 wins were by double digits, so they should cover this spread at home.

Jaguars -8.5 versus Bills

I just don't see how Buffalo can put up many points on the road against this elite defense. Not one Bill averaged even 50 receiving yards per game, and if you don't count the work Kelvin Benjamin did in Carolina, Charles Clay was the most "dangerous" presence with 558 yards, or 42.9 per game. Not exactly threatening for the likes of Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Aaron Colvin, Tashaun Gipson, and Barry Church. Feeding LeSean McCoy will seemingly be their only effective offense, but he's far from 100% with a sprained ankle. Meanwhile, you can expect DVOA's 31st ranked run defense to get a heavy dose of Leonard Fournette on the other side, so I'm not too concerned about needing to rely on Blake Bortles to lay such a high spread. Buffalo got their big "win" last week with the excitement of getting lucky in the four-way tiebreaker to end their long playoff drought, but now it's time to turn back into a pumpkin as midnight approaches on their season.

Saints -7 versus Panthers

You've probably heard the old adage "It's hard to beat an opponent three times" in reference to divisional rivals facing off again in the playoffs, but as I heard Bill Barnwell explain on Sportscenter this week, that's not actually the case. In the 16 cases that this scenario has occurred since 1990, a 3-0 sweep has been the result 11 times. Given that New Orleans not only won but dominated both matchups, I think that will become 12 out of 17 times. Cam Newton averaged just 175 yards passing in those two games compared to 210.9 against everyone else and had 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions compared to a 20:13 ratio otherwise. Carolina's linebacker trio of Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and Shaq Thompson trying to contain Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara in both phases of game will be fun to watch as that duo became the first pair of running backs on the same team to both total over 1,500 yards from scrimmage. The matchup that won't likely be as contested is James Bradberry Daryl Worley trying to stick with Michael Thomas as he averaged 6 catches for 78.5 yards and scored in both games.