I thought the rejuvenated 'Phins under Dan Campbell could put up a fight against the defending champs, but New England is in a completely different stratosphere than their previous opponents.
Lions +3.5 versus Chiefs (in London)
Kansas City's offense line is coming together and playing much better than their Detroit counterpart, but I'm counting on the Lions coaching shakeup kick starting the offense and taking the points with the team who got a win in London last year.
Vikings PK at Bears
Minnesota continues to be underrated despite their defense's high level of play. Chicago's defense has been trending upward, as well, but I think the Vikings can put up points in this one.
|All Day always kills the Bears, averaging 116.3 rushing yards in 12 career games against them.|
Falcons -7 versus Buccaneers
This line is a bit high considering how Atlanta's been playing of late, but I'm laying the points against the rookie quarterback in a hostile environment, despite his performance last week. This just feels like a spot for a Falcons offensive explosion.
Giants +3 at Saints
New Orleans has been playing better of late and gets a struggling New York defense at home, but I'm taking the points in what should be a barn burner. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are poised to break out of their personal slumps in their N'awlins homecoming.
Rams -8 versus 49ers
I was going to take the points until Carlos Hyde was ruled out. San Francisco is going to have a hard enough time with the St. Louis pass and without a running game to slow them down, it's going to be tough sledding on the road.
Cardinals -6 at Cleveland
This could be a little bit of a trap game on the road ahead of the upcoming bye week, but Arizona's too complete of a team to hit a speed bump against an inferior team. Chris Johnson should have plenty of holes to showcase his speed against the worst run defense in the league.
Bengals +1 at Steelers
|A.J. Green should continue to play big against a division rival.|
This line had a big shift once Ben Roethlisberger was announced healthy, making it an even easier choice for me to go with the more talented team coming off the bye. Andy Dalton should continue his career year against this Pittsburgh secondary.
Ravens -3 versus Chargers
At some point, things will have to turn around for Baltimore since all of their losses have been by 8 points or less, and they're at home against a San Diego team that flat out didn't show up last week. Philip Rivers can definitely throw on this secondary, but they'll likely be one dimensional with their struggling run game.
Titans +3.5 at Texans
I'd feel a whole lot better with this one if Marcus Mariota was healthy, but you can't feel comfortable laying any points with a team that played as poorly as Houston did last week. The unfortunate loss of Arian Foster cannot be understated for a team with this kind of quarterback situation, and Tennessee's defense played well last week.
Jets -3 at Raiders
The fact that this one is in Oakland makes it tough since New York has the more complete team but has to come across the country to face a team on the rise. I'm banking on Ryan Fitzpatrick taking advantage of the holes in the Raiders defense but don't feel great about it.
Seahawks -6 at Cowboys
I've always liked Matt Cassel, but I can't depend on him going against Seattle's defense, even at home. Although Dallas will have the advantage in the trenches, Russell Wilson is smart enough to know how to attack their defense.
Packers -2.5 at Broncos
In the battle of undefeated teams coming off of byes, I'm rolling with the game's current best quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is much more likely to generate some offense against Denver's elite defense than Peyton Manning is against an underrated Green Bay unit. Maybe the off week helped both teams make some adjustments in their running game, but until proven otherwise, picking the better passer is the safer bet.
|The MVP still has the belt of being the best QB in the league.|
Carolina's defense is playing great, but I'm doubling down on my pick from last week that they will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. Andrew Luck still doesn't look right but did bounce back in the second half last week and at the very least should keep his team in the game.
Last week: 7-6-1
2015 Season Total: 52-50-4