Sunday, October 18, 2015

2015 NFL Week 6 Picks

Falcons -3 at Saints

The Saints defense didn't exactly stop the Falcons so much that they stopped themselves. Atlanta's inability to adjust to the ageless Ben Watson continuously killing them was astounding, but I should have known better than to expect them to remain undefeated with the short week on the road.

Broncos -3.5 at Browns

It's officially time to worry about Peyton Manning after his struggles continued against Oakland's underwhelming secondary, but Cleveland's missing top corner Joe Haden for this game. I'm counting on Josh McCown coming back down to earth against the best defense in the league.

Bengals -3 at Bills

Coming off Cincinnati's dramatic comeback, this line almost feels like a trap against a backup quarterback that doesn't have a ton of game film to study, but Buffalo's offense is so banged up right now. I'll take my chances with the better team against E.J. Manuel.

Vikings -3.5 versus Chiefs

Kansas City was looking good last week until the horrible Jamaal Charles injury, and now they're on the road against a talented team coming off a bye week. Minnesota's strong secondary will make it tough for Alex Smith to try and carry the offense.
Charcandrick West might be a poor man's Charles, but they'll need more than that.

Texans +2.5 at Jaguars

The possibility of T.J. Yeldon missing this game with a groin injury make this a risky proposition for the home team, and Houston is coming off of 10 days rest. With Brian Hoyer looking more competent than Ryan Mallet, I'm okay taking the points here.

Lions -3.5 versus Bears

This line is probably a touch high considering both teams are equally mediocre, but I'll stick with the home team in this one. Chicago's defense could be just what Detroit needs to get its offense in sync, especially considering Calvin Johnson's past big games against them.

Jets -6 versus Redskins

If this line keeps rising, I might stay away since it's still tough to trust New York's offense. I still don't believe in Washington's defense, but they've played well enough to consistently keep them in games so far. Kirk Cousins on the road against this defense could be a disaster, though.

Cardinals -4 at Steelers

I know the game is in Pittsburgh, but you're telling me I only have to lay 4 points with Arizona's explosive offense against this secondary? And going against Mike Vick facing exotic blitz packages? Yes, please.
With the bye to get healthy, Lamar Miller needs to be fed.

Dolphins +2 at Titans

You never know what to expect with a team coming off a coaching change, but I'm counting on a return to more balanced attack with the running game, which is where Tennessee is weak. Maybe their defense will actually live up to expectations now, as well.

Panthers +7 at Seahawks

I know Carolina is in a daunting environment and hasn't exactly beaten anyone of note, but this line shows no respect for an undefeated team. Defending the tight end is Seattle's weakness, so Greg Olsen should be featured early and often in this one to at least keep this one close.

Packers -10 versus Chargers

The fact that this line is about the same as when Green Bay hosted St. Louis last week is surprising, but San Diego doesn't match up too well in this one and is traveling on a short week after their unbelievable loss on MNF. This should be a good spot for Eddie Lacy to get back on track in the ground game.

49ers +2 versus Ravens

San Francisco showed signs of life on the national stage before a nonsensical prevent defense gave away the game in the final minute. Their defense does much better at home, and Colin Kaepernick gets another defense that lacks a pass rush, which makes a difference for him moreso than most quarterbacks. Baltimore's main offensive offensive weapons, Steve Smith and Justin Forsett, being questionable for this one makes this a somewhat surprising line.

Patriots -9.5 at Colts

This line can't get high enough for me to go against New England letting out their frustrations over the deflated balls scandal that Indianapolis instigated. I normally wouldn't feel comfortable taking this many points against Andrew Luck, especially at home, but the Patriots have dominated this series since he came into the league.
No matter the score, expect Tom Brady to keep the passes coming.
Giants +5 at Eagles

I don't think New York is going to win, but this is too high of a spread for a Philadelphia team that has been so inconsistent. Odell Beckham Jr. can destroy this secondary if healthy, and the Giants' stout run defense could take the Eagles out of rhythm. Prince Amukamara being out is a huge blow on the other side, though, so Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will have to play big against one of his former teams.

Last week: 6-7-1

2015 Season Total: 38-37-3

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