Sunday, October 25, 2015

2015 NFL Week 7 Picks

49ers +6.5 versus Seahawks

I should have known better than to stick with the home team getting points on a short week. Seattle always poses a bad matchup for them with their pass rush and specifically Cliff Avril on the right side.

Jaguars +4 versus Bills (in London)

It's tempting to go with the better team on the neutral field, but Buffalo just has too many injuries to deal with. Seeing studly wide receiver Allen Robinson do battle with impressive corners Ronald Darby and Stephon Gillmore should be fun to watch.

Rams -6.5 versus Browns

Todd Gurley against Cleveland's run defense just isn't fair. The line is a bit high, but I'll lay the points against Josh McCown on the road.
Gurley often looks like a man among boys out there.

Steelers +3 at Chiefs

Pittsburgh has been a bad luck team for me this year, but the shift in this line has been huge as they were originally the favorites. The fact that Landry Jones is making his first career start in Arrowhead is cause for concern, but he looked adequate in relief last week.

Dolphins -4.5 versus Texans

Miami getting back to the running game was just what the doctor ordered last week, and they should continue to feed Lamar Miller with Dan Campbell as head coach. Houston's defense has been a big disappointment so far this year.

Jets +7.5 at Patriots

This is a tough spot for New England with their patchwork offensive line against a dominant New York defensive front coming off a bye. Being at home helps them, but I've got to take the points in what should be a tight game.

Vikings -1 at Lions

I know it's in Detroit, but I can't believe this was a pick 'em game for parts of the week. Minnesota is clearly the better team in my mind, and the emergence of Stefon Diggs has opened up the passing game.

Titans -6.5 versus Falcons

I was hesitant to go with Atlanta on the road here when the line opened at -4, but now that it's gone this far up, I'm definitely taking the points with the home 'dogs. These first games with a backup quarterback seem to sneak up on people, and Zach Mettenberger looked solid in his games last year.

Redskins -3 versus Bucaneers

This one could turn into a shootout as I don't believe in either secondary, but both teams can be turnover prone, as well. I'll lay the field goal against the road team and rookie quarterback.
I'm counting on Ryan Kerrigan and the pass rush hiding their secondary.
Colts -4.5 versus Saints

Andrew Luck still didn't look fully healthy against the Pats, but this is a juicy matchup against New Orleans' already shaky secondary that is down healthy bodies. Frank Gore has shown that he still has juice in his 32 year old legs and should help keep the offense balanced.

Raiders +3.5 at Chargers

This will be a good test for the Raiders coaching staff coming off their first bye together, and San Diego doesn't exactly have a home field advantage right now. Philip Rivers and this proficient passing game against Oakland's defense is a scary proposition, but the pass rush could get to him as the Chargers' offensive line still needs to get healthy.
Latavius Murray might be running free often against this defense.
Cowboys +3.5 at Giants

I think New York should pull it out at home, but having the bye week to get Matt Cassel up to speed at quarterback bodes well for Dallas. The Giants' once stout run defense has sprung some leaks the last couple of weeks, so I'll take the points in what should be a competitive game.

Eagles +3 at Panthers

Call it a gut feeling, but I think Philadelphia's offense will continue to pick up steam in this one, even against a good Carolina defense. I don't see the Panthers taking advantage of the weaknesses in the Eagles' defense since they have the weakest wide receiver group in the league.

Cardinals -8 versus Ravens

It's hard to see Baltimore continue their losing ways, but Carson Palmer should light up this struggling pass defense. In his first career game, Patrick Peterson got burned by Steve Smith, but he's playing up to his potential now and should lead this defense to a nice win at home.
Michael Floyd was robbed of a second TD last week, but he could get it back in this one.
Last week: 7-7
2015 Season Total: 45-44-3

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