Super Bowl LV

I took a break from making picks since my pick 'em pool was only for the regular season, but now the big game is just about here! My would be choices went 7-4-1 to improve a little bit on my mediocre 131-125 season, and this weekend I'm going with...Kansas City -3.

The fact that this matchup has some Super Bowl XXXII vibes does worry me. In that game, the hot shot quarterback that won an MVP at a young age and was seeking a repeat championship was upset by an aging first ballot Hall of Famer. However, the analogy obviously isn't perfect since Tom Brady has already had way more success in title games than John Elway had up until that point of his career to avoid any "This one's for John" factor. I also have more confidence in Patrick Mahomes (1.4% career interception rate) taking care of the ball better than Brett Favre (3% rate at that point), especially against a team that he already carved up this season. The Chiefs relented late in that game to result in a blown cover, but their three point margin would be good enough this time around.

Just How Bad Should the Warriors Want the Timberwolves to Be?

The Warriors beating the Timberwolves in back to back games this week was a little extra satisfying for the franchise and their fans since they own the latter's top-3 protected 1st round pick after last year's massive trade that centered around D'Angelo Russell and Andrew Wiggins. Minnesota now has the third worst record in the league at 4-13 with just one win more than bottom-dwelling Washington, so that pick has a ton a value. Naturally, the talk around the fanbase during these teams' meetings has been about the trade and whether or not they should be rooting for the Timberwolves to have the very worst record heading into the NBA Lottery.

Unpacking the Moving Parts of the James Harden Trade

Nets receive:

James Harden

$41,254,920

$44,310,840

$47,366,760

Cavs 2nd round pick in '24

Rockets receive:

Victor Oladipo

$21,000,000

Dante Exum

$9,600,000

Rodions Kurucs

$1,780,152

$1,861,068

Bucks unprotected 1st round pick in '22 (via Cavs)

Net' unprotected 1st round picks in '22, '24, and '26

Right to swap picks with Nets in '21, '23, '25, and '27

Cavaliers receive:

Taurean Prince

$12,250,000

$13,000,000

Jarrett Allen

$3,909,902

Pacers receive:

Caris LeVert

$16,203,704

$17,500,000

$18,796,296

Worst of Rockets, Mavericks, or Heat 2nd round pick in '23

1/16 UPDATE: Due to an issue with LeVert's physical, they also receive the Cavs 2024 2nd that was originally going to Brooklyn, who are also now sending $2.6 million

Whoa. Just...wow. I refrained from doing my usual offseason tracker due to work conflicts at the time, but today's absolute blockbuster is the perfect time for me to jump back into writing about the NBA. There is a lot to unpack from the news that Woj and Shams reported almost simultaneously, so let's break things down team by team starting with the principal participants. Indiana's inclusion might technically end up as a separate trade afterwards rather than part of a four teamer, anyway.

Brooklyn is taking quite the risk by leaving all of those draft picks and potential pick swaps unprotected, and that decision of course stands out after their disastrous 2013 trade for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry that crippled the previous regime. Those stars were much closer to the ends of their careers at the time, and the resulting teams were so bad that after the first pick in 2014 (#17, James Young), the ensuing selections were #3 in 2016 (Jaylen Brown), #1 in 2017 (Markelle Fultz, traded for Jayson Tatum), and #8 in 2018 (Collin Sexton). Harden is only 31 years old as he joins 32 year old Kevin Durant and nearly 29 year old Kyrie Irving, so the team seemingly won't be in danger of falling off the cliff as quickly as last time. They all have the option to hit free agency in 2022, however, so rookie head coach Steve Nash faces a tall order of integrating the three stars rather quickly without a training camp.

NFL 2020 Week 17 Picks

There is a reason that the vast majority of fantasy football leagues don't include Week 17: things get weird. It's right up there with the first couple weeks of the season as the hardest to predict because you don't know for sure who is actually going to play or for how long, and that is especially true this year with a spike in COVID-19 cases after Christmas. Some of the actual spreads in Las Vegas have changed by quite a bit due to some news, but the lines in the CBS Pick 'Em Pool are still the same. Keeping those factors in mind, here goes nothing:

Home Favorites

Bills -3.5 versus Dolphins

1/3 UPDATE: Early morning reports indicate that Buffalo won't play their starters for much of the game, so I'm switching this pick to Dolphins +3.5.

Browns -7.5 versus Steelers

Patriots -3.5 versus Jets

Colts -14.5 versus Jaguars

Road Underdogs

Falcons +6.5 at Buccaneers

Cardinals +1.5 at Rams

Home Underdogs

Bengals +11.5 versus Ravens

Texans +7.5 versus Titans

Broncos +2.5 versus Raiders

Road Favorites

Vikings -6.5 at Lions

Cowboys -2.5 at Giants

Saints -6.5 at Panthers

Packers -5.5 at Bears

Chargers -3.5 at Chiefs

Seahawks -4.5 at 49ers

Washington -1.5 at Eagles

Last week: 7-9

Season total: 124-116

NFL 2020 Week 16 Picks

Merry Christmas! I'll keep the intro light this week after my 8-8 in Week 15 was my worst showing since my run started in Week 12, and I wasn't tilting at all by Green Bay, Indianapolis, Seattle, and Kansas City all blowing two touchdown leads to not cover by half a point each. Nope, didn't bother me at all...

Home Favorites

Saints -7.5 versus Vikings

Cardinals -4.5 versus 49ers

Chargers -3.5 versus Broncos

Washington -2.5 versus Panthers

Subject to change if Alex Smith ends up ruled out.

Packers -3.5 versus Titans

Road Underdogs

Giants +10.5 at Ravens

Bengals +9.5 at Texans

12/26 UPDATE: After considering the state of Houston's defense again, I decided to take the points after all.

Falcons +10.5 at Chiefs

Rams +2.5 at Seahawks

Home Underdogs

Steelers +1.5 versus Colts

Patriots +7.5 versus Bills

Road Favorites

Buccaneers -8.5 at Lions

Dolphins -2.5 at Raiders

Browns -9.5 at Jets

Bears -7.5 at Jaguars

Eagles -1.5 at Cowboys

Last week 8-8

Season total: 117-107

NFL 2020 Week 15 Picks

I seem to have my groove back after following my 12 win week with back to back to 10's. This is a tricky slate with a lot of road favorites, but I am off to a good start after Justin Herbert picked apart the Raiders' still non-existent defense (no thanks to Anthony Lynn limiting him to just 12 attempts in the second half and overtime). Hopefully that's a good omen for the rest of the road teams I"m picking.

Road Underdogs

Chargers +3.5 at Raiders

Patriots +2.5 at Dolphins

Bears +3.5 at Vikings

Eagles +6.5 at Cardinals

12/19 UPDATE: Philly officially ruling out both starting corners has me switching this to Cardinals -6.5 versus Eagles

Home Favorites

Packers -8.5 versus Panthers

Titans -8.5 versus Lions

Colts -7.5 versus Texans

Rams -17.5 versus Jets

Ravens -13.5 versus Jaguars

Home Underdogs

Cowboys +2.5 versus 49ers

Road Favorites

Bills -6.5 at Broncos

Buccaneers -5.5 at Falcons

Seahawks -5.5 at Washington

Chiefs -3.5 at Saints

Browns -3.5 at Giants

Steelers -12.5 at Bengals

Last week: 10-6

Season total: 110-99

NFL 2020 Week 14 Picks

The prime time games have not been kind to me recently, but overall it was another strong week to get me back into contention for my picks pool. Home teams continued to struggle, and now this week has a lot of road teams favored to make things interesting. Although I'm not quite as confident as last week, this should be a fun slate that also is the start of the fantasy playoffs.

Road Underdogs

Patriots +5.5 at Rams

Well, I was right about Jared Goff not playing especially well against Bill Belichick's defense again. The problem was that it didn't matter since Cam Newton had no chance against LA's elite defense and one of my favorite running back prospects, Cam Akers, has taken the reigns on the running back job.

Steelers +2.5 at Bills

Home Favorites

Buccaneers -6.5 versus Vikings

Panthers -3.5 versus Broncos

Seahawks -13.5 versus Jets

49ers -3.5 versus Washington

Home Underdogs

Bears +1.5 versus Texans

Dolphins +7.5 versus Chiefs

Giants +2.5 versus Cardinals

Lions +7.5 versus Packers

Chargers +2.5 versus Falcons

Road Favorites

Cowboys -3.5 at Bengals

Titans -7.5 at Jaguars

Colts -2.5 at Raiders

Saints -7.5 at Eagles

Ravens -1.5 at Browns

Last week: 10-5

Season total: 99-93