2022 Draft Week(-ish) Recap

And there goes the 2022 NBA Draft! There was a ton of action across the league, starting 10 days before the draft even started, so I wanted to round up all of the moves in one place.

Pre-Draft Deals

Denver sheds salary, swaps picks (Woj, June 13th)

Thunder receive:

JaMychal Green

$8,200,000

 2027 1st round pick (protected 1-5 through '29, then becomes two 2nds, per Zach Lowe)

Nuggets receive:

#30 pick

Two future 2nd round picks

It felt like the immediate reaction to this was that it's typical of Denver to dump a good player in JaMychal Green to cut their luxury tax bill once they knew he'd pick up his player option, especially after they weren't willing to spend to keep President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly, but this isn't necessarily a bad deal. Yes, you'd think a team getting Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back would go all out with to contend with depth around Nikola Jokic, but swapping a pick five years from now for one in this draft and two 2nd rounders down the line is solid value. They also create a Trade Exception worth that same $8.2 million to possibly take in someone down the line, though it remains to be seen whether they'd actually add to their tax bill.

This was OKC's last chance to use their plethora of cap room for salary dumps like this before Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's max deal kicks in on July 1st, so it's understandable that they didn't try to squeeze more out of this deal. They have so many players on rookie-scale contracts and upcoming 1st round picks already that it makes sense to push one so far down the line that it could capture more upside than the 30th pick. Plus, Green being a useful veteran on an expiring contract could possibly be eventually moved for more assets. 

Dallas adds Wood (Shams, June 15th)

Mavericks receive:

Christian Wood

$14,317,459

Rockets receive:

Boban Marjanovic

$3,500,000

Trey Burke

$3,300,000

Sterling Brown

$3,000,000

Marquese Chriss

$2,193,920

#26 pick

Looking Back at this Warriors Title and Ahead to the Offseason

When I got home from the Warriors' championship parade, a question from my friend stuck with me: Can they sign everyone this summer?

The short answer is yes, they can. The real answer is that it depends on the market, as usual. I've been thinking (and tweeting) about this topic for a long time, of course, but I figured it would be best to pour all of my thoughts on the team in one place. 

How Golden State Got Here

First, I want to look back at this this incredible title run for my former employer after they were +1100 to win it all with just a 48.5 win total over/under in the preseason according to Basketball Reference. There was reason for optimism, though, with the prospect of Klay Thompson finally returning from his ACL and Achilles tears and the team's 15-5 close to last season. They ultimately did not make the playoffs despite having the 8th-best record in the West due to it unfortunately being the first year of the Play-In, but they showed that the combination of Stephen Curry leading the offense, Draymond Green leading the defense, shrewd addition Andrew Wiggins contributing on both ends, and Jordan Poole emerging as another offensive creator all added up to a winning formula.

2022 NBA Lottery Reactions

I've written many times on here about how much I love the NBA lottery, so of course I had to come back to write some short thoughts on this year's proceedings. This isn't the most exciting draft class with no clear potential superstars at the top, but it's still exciting to see woebegone franchises see their luck turn with new franchise cornerstones thanks to the randomness of ping pong balls.

I wrote brief profiles for the consensus top-3 prospects for work, so #MakeYourPick on who will go #1 over on PlayPickUp.com. I didn't include perhaps my favorite prospect this year, Shaedon Sharpe, since he's not considered likely to go quite that high, but I think that could change based on who emerged as the winner tonight.

Trade Summaries for all 2022 NBA Deals

After a long hiatus, I couldn't resist coming back to write again for the annual tradition of the NBA Trade Deadline! This is mostly just to keep a record of what trades have gone down in the new year, and I'll add some thoughts on deals later. For now, I'm summing things up with when deals went down, crediting who reported them, and details of the contracts and picks exchanged. Some of the draft pick details are from RealGM, these salaries are from a combination of Basketball Insiders and Spotrac, and my color coding is the same as usual: Player Option/Team Option/Not Fully Guaranteed.

Jazz shed salary (January 4th, Woj)

Thunder receive:

Miye Oni

$1,782,621

2028 Jazz 2nd round pick

Jazz receive:

Cash considerations

Utah shaved Oni's salary from their luxury tax bill and opened up a roster spot, and Oklahoma City waived him right away before his salary became more guaranteed than the $850,331 he had from that point of the season. Easy business to add yet another draft pick.

New York adds Reddish (January 13th, Woj)

Knicks receive:

Cameron Reddish

$4,670,160

$5,954,454

Solomon Hill

$1,669,178

2025 Nets 2nd round pick

Hawks receive:

Kevin Knox

$5,845,978

2022 Hornets 1st round pick (protected 1-18, then 1-16 in '23, 1-14 through '25, then becomes '26 and '27 2nds)

I understood this one from both sides, and while I prefer New York's side of it, I didn't think it's necessarily a huge difference-maker like some portrayed it to be. Reddish has flashed tantalizing potential going back to high school, but he still hasn't improved his efficiency, especially his two point percentage. He finished his Hawks career at just 43.3% inside the arc to go with 32.9% from deep, and that's after an improvement to 36.2% on 3's this season. In theory, he can help lead bench units and eventually become a starter next to his former Duke teammate RJ Barrett, but so far coach Tom Thibodeux hasn't trusted him yet with just 50 total minutes since the trade. Knox similarly never panned out under Thibs, so swapping him out ahead of restricted free agency with one of their extra 1st rounders was a fair price to pay.

Atlanta had almost too many quality rotation options, so it's a solid move to cash one in to pick up a 1st, albeit a heavily protected one. Reddish is eligible for an extension this summer, and they probably didn't feel like one would come easily, especially after they've already handed out big deals to Trae Young, John Collins, Clint Capela, and Kevin Huerter. It's a disappointing but not unsurprising ending after taking Reddish 10th overall in the draft pick from trading Luka Doncic for Young in the 2018 draft.

Denver adds Forbes in 3-teamer (January 18th, Woj)

Nuggets receive:

Bryn Forbes

$4,500,000

Celtics receive:

Bol Bol

$2,161,512

P.J. Dozier

$1,910,860

Spurs receive:

Juan Hernangomez

$7,012,440

$7,531,880

2028 Nuggets 2nd round pick (protected 31-33)

This one won't move the needle, but it was good business on all sides. Denver moved two of their many injured players for some bench reinforcements at just the cost of a 2nd rounder six years from now. Boston shed salary as part of their quest to duck the luxury tax, and by taking their new players into the Kemba Walker Trade Exception, they create a new TE equal to Hernangomez's salary with a later expiration date. Sitting outside of contention, San Antonio added an extra draft pick for a veteran on an expiring deal and got a free look at Hernangomez, who hardly played for the Celtics but has flashed usefulness in the past, ironically with Denver. 

Clips pull shocking addition for now and the future (February 4th, Woj)

Clippers receive:

Norman Powell

$15,517,242

$16,758,621

$18,000,000

$19,241,379

$20,482,758

Robert Covington

$12,975,471

Trail Blazers receive:

Eric Bledsoe

$18,125,000

$19,375,000

Justise Winslow

$3,902,439

$4,097,561

Keon Johnson

$2,553,240

$2,681,040

$2,808,720

$4,474,291

2025 Pistons 2nd round pick

It was equally surprising that Portland didn't get a future 1st in this deal and that it was the Clippers who were buyers despite their stars' injuries. Ty Lue has navigated his squad to stay in the Play-In mix, though, and I suppose there is still a chance that Kawhi Leonard and/or Paul George do come back. With Powell under contract for four more years as he returns to his UCLA roots, this is as much a trade about the future, and he has useful experience as both a starter and 6th man who is comfortable working off of stars, including with Leonard in Toronto when they won the 2019 title. Acquiring Covington's Bird rights is also valuable as they wouldn't otherwise have the opportunity to try to sign him to more than the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception in free agency.

I guess the Blazers had some buyers remorse after feeling obligated to give Powell that big contract over the summer after trading Gary Trent Jr. for him at last year's Deadline. Although this is a bit underwhelming of a return for giving up both him and Covington, Johnson was just picked in the 1st round last year and has a lot of potential with his athleticism. I was really surprised he fell to the 21st pick much like when Nassir Little fell to 25th a couple of years prior, and the Blazers have done well in developing the latter along with Anfernee Simons (24th), which is a promising sign. Bledsoe's contract only being guaranteed for $3.9 million this summer provides them some much-needed flexibility, and this drops them below the tax line while LA increases their bill by $19 million, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. At least, until the Clips' next move...

2021 NBA Offseason Tracker

The opening day of the NBA offseason is always a wild ride with a ton of action, and I'm here to track down all of the news. I will update each item with the years, money, and who broke the stories as they come in. My salary projections tend to be pretty accurate based on the total dollars and years that reported, and I'll make note of my reasoning for some of them.

Estimation/Player option/Team option/Not fully guaranteed

Ball agrees to sign-and-trade to Chicago: 4 years, $85 million (Shams)

Bulls receive:

Lonzo Ball

$19,767,442

$20,755,814

$21,744,186

$22,732,558

Pelicans receive:

Tomas Satoransky

$10,000,000

Garrett Temple

$4,667,442

?

?

2nd round pick

No reporting yet on Temple's deal aside from Marc Spears saying the last year isn't guaranteed, so I'm estimating an amount needed to match Ball's salary.

Barton re-signs with Denver: 2 years, $32 million (Haynes)

Will Barton

$15,384,615

$16,615,385

Hardaway re-signs with Dallas: 4 years, $72 million (Shams)

Tim Hardaway Jr.

$16,071,429

$17,357,143

$18,642,857

$19,928,571

8/9 UPDATE: It turns out that it is actually a $75 million contract, and the Mavs are front-loading it according to MacMahon. It's a smart move to have the max decreases per season since they are operating over the cap while not in danger of crossing the luxury tax this season.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

$21,306,818

$19,602,273

$17,897,727

$16,193,182

Conley re-signs with Utah: 3 years, $68 million (Shams)

Mike Conley

$20,987,654

$22,666,667

$24,345,679

2021 NBA Draft Week

After a slow start to the week, boy did things heat up. I'll start with all of the trades first to show the comparison in contracts (salaries from BasketballInsiders.com) and then list every team's draft results at the bottom. This isn't meant to go too deep in analysis but rather serve as a reference point for every move that transpired.

Player option/Team option/Not fully guaranteed

Memphis and New Orleans swap picks, bigs, and big contracts

Pelicans receive:

Jonas Valanciunas

$14,000,000

#17 and #51 picks

Grizzlies receive:

Eric Bledsoe

$18,125,000

$19,375,000

Steven Adams

$17,073,171

$17,926,829

#10 and #40 picks

Lakers' 2022 1st round pick (protected 1-10)

The action got started early with this surprising deal on Monday that actually can't become official until the new league season begins next week. It was already expected, but Memphis will need to decline the $13 million team option for Justise Winslow in order to have the cap room to absorb the contracts Bledsoe and Adams. This is another opportunistic move from Zach Kleiman and their front office to leverage their flexibility into adding more assets in the form of moving up seven and 11 spots in the 1st and 2nd round of this draft while also adding an extra 1st round pick next year. Bledsoe, who is rumored to be moved again, only has $3.9 million guaranteed in the final year of his deal, and Adams' salary for next year is likely close to what Valanciunas is looking for in his next contract anyway. Although it was somewhat stunning to see them move an offensive hub like this, it is refreshing to see a franchise be honest with themselves about where they are in their timeline and stay the course with value moves like this.

Conversely, one would hope that New Orleans isn't trying to rush things too soon after moving onto their third coach in three years. This isn't quite like when they had a young Anthony Davis and kept trading away future picks since this regime has a lot of extra 1st rounders to work with, but the talk of them making this deal to clear significant cap space for 35 year old Kyle Lowry is a puzzler. Once this deal goes through, they could create up to $35.9 million in cap space by renouncing restricted free agents Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart and waiving the non-guaranteed contracts of Wenyen Gabriel and Didi Louzada. Keeping the cap hold of Hart before signing him to a new deal would put them at about $26.4 million, and sign-and-trades involving either of their free agents and a potential incoming signing are also possible to keep them as an over the cap team with access to the full MLE. For now, they gave up a likely late 1st and some equity in this draft to create flexibility and get an offensive upgrade at center. I don't buy Valanciunas as a "floor spacer" next to Zion Williamson considering how few threes he actually takes, but it does make for a dangerous front court pairing, even if at the cost of their biggest problem: defense.

Philadelphia buys late 2nd 

76ers receive:

#53 pick

Pelicans receive:

$2 million cash

It was a bit odd for a pick this late to be sold hours before the draft even starts without any idea of who will be available, but Philly had money to spend before the new league year resets. As much as I'm against teams straight up selling draft assets, I understand it for New Orleans since they have four picks in just the 2nd round alone, and this is a nice amount for a pick in the 50's. 

Early Draft Talk: the Walker/Horford Trade and What's at Stake in the NBA Lottery

 Thunder receive:

Player	20-21	21-22	22-23
Kemba Walker	$34,379,100	$36,016,200	$37,653,300

#16 pick

2025 2nd round pick (better of Celtics' or Grizzlies')

Celtics receive:

Player

20-21

21-22

22-23

23-24

Al Horford

$27,500,000

$27,000,000

$26,500,000

Moses Brown

$1,250,000

$1,701,593

$1,846,738

$1,997,718

2023 2nd round pick (least favorable of Thunder's, Wizards', or the better of Mavericks' or Heat's)

That was quick. Just over two weeks after transitioning from coaching to the front office, Brad Stevens already made his first move, and it is a big one. Walker going from the All-Star who turned around the young Boston team that underachieved with Kyrie Irving in 2019 to needing a mid-1st round pick attached to shed his salary now is a pretty stunning turnaround. Knee issues have limited the 31 year old to playing in just 119 of 166 possible games, though, so the $73.7 million due to him over the next two seasons wasn't too appealing to Boston, especially as Jayson Tatum's max contract kicks in this summer. Hence the return of Horford, who was a valuable Celtic both on the floor and in the locker room from 2016 to 2019 and only has $41.5 million guaranteed on his contract. The 2022-23 season could add another $5 million in guarantees if the team makes the Finals next season or become fully guaranteed if they win it, which of course would be worth it.

With these savings, Boston is now about $9.4 million under the luxury tax threshold as they look to re-sign Evan Fournier without going too deep into it, and if they do retain him on the wing, they will have some interesting lineup choices to pick from. Barring the addition of a new point guard, it would seem that Marcus Smart, who is a year away from free agency himself, would be the nominal starter at that position with the offense running through Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Fournier could be a high end sixth man or start as a third wing with the other two both capable of battling against power forwards, and Horford could play center like he is best suited for at this point of his career. There is also the possibility to put Horford at power forward next to exciting young center Robert Williams or even 7'2" prospect Brown if they really want to play big or if Fournier signs elsewhere. The fact that this big of a move was made before hiring a new coach and knowing a preference in style might be the most surprising aspect of this. In some ways, it is the type of move Stevens' predecessor Danny Ainge would make by not being afraid to deal a big name to do what he thinks is best for the team, but the draft compensation here is a tough pill to swallow.