Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Weeks 1-3 in 2025

We are now fully back! I'm not going to be writing these type of posts as often this season since things can change so much week to week in the NFL, but being three weeks in now gives us a decent sample size to look at. These deep dives are meant to look beyond the regular box scores and instead focus on how teams are utilizing their skill position players. These underlying peripherals can often be a better indicator of what is to come than the raw numbers that have been put up so far.

Like last year, I'm using fantasy data (PPR scoring) and standard stats from ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com while snaps, routes run, and positional alignment come from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

• Let's start with arguably the best player in fantasy football: Christian McCaffrey. The only thing ever stopping him from being the #1 pick each year are questions about his health, and despite a calf scare right before Week 1, he's ironically been one of the only healthy 49ers so far. And the team definitely isn't worried about trying to preserve him as the dual-threat RB once again has an elite role.
  
  Through three games, McCaffrey has played 81.13% of the snaps, run a route on 81.60% of the drop backs, been given. 75.36% of the RB carries, and seen an absurd 29.09% target share. Once more for emphasis: he's getting the targeted at the rate of an elite WR as a running back! As a result, he's averaging 23.3 points per game despite not finding the end zone on the ground yet and only scoring one receiving touchdown. The target share will come down once more receiving options get healthy, but with the track record that both this offense and he has, the TDs will come.

  Mac to CMC! @49ers TD!
  
  SFvsNO on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/6hnm17aFuF

  — NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025

  
  

• A more split backfield is happening in Houston, and it's been interesting to see the progression of the group. The Texans initially had four RBs see at least 7 snaps in Week 1 before making Dameon Pierce inactive in Week 2, and now in Week 3 it was down to just two 'backs getting snaps.
  
  Veteran Nick Chubb has been solid with a consistent role, playing over half the snaps in all three games (52% overall) with his route participation rate progressing from 26.47% to 30% to 39.53% (32.71% overall). That's led to an increase in target share from 3.7% to 8.7% to 11.11% (8.14% overall) to go along getting 66.67% of the RB carries, resulting in 9.4 points per game.
  
  Chubb's never been a big contributor in the passing game, though, so more intriguing is the role increase for rookie Woody Marks, who I was high on in this class as a pass-catcher. From snaps (11.11% to 26.53% to 47.62%) to routes (8.82% to 23.33% to 44.19%) to RB carry share (14.29% to 20% to 40%) to target share (0% to 4.35% to 5.56%), his usage numbers have gone up across the board week over week. If this can stay around an even split with Marks getting most of the receiving work, he could become an underrated contributor.

Top NFL Rookie WRs for 2025

It's been a while! I meant to get this out not much longer after the rookie running backs and TEs posts in May, but the NBA offseason having action start sooner than ever threw me off before travel plans over the summer. Now the 2025 NFL season is here, so I'll will fire through this wide receiver class that's not as awesome as recent years but still has a lot to like.

As a reminder, a lot of what I base profiles on comes from JJ Zachariason's prospect guides over the years with certain statistical lenses to look through. I also tend to look at athleticism testing a little more than he does, but Ryan Heath's research at Fantasy Points indicates findings that it shouldn't be too much of a factor in success compared to other positions. Still, I'll be referencing physical traits (ideally from the NFL combine, with pro day results from Dane Brugler's The Beast); draft day age; breakout age; production profiles based on yards per route run (YPRR) via Pro Football Focus, yards per team pass attempt (Y/TPA), and market share rates; and then situation comes in at the end.

1. Tetairoa McMillan - 1st round, 8th overall, 2nd WR drafted - Panthers

There is a lot to like about McMillan's complete profile. He broke out as a true freshman (albeit as a 19 year old) largely based on accounting for 30.77% of Arizona's touchdowns. He really took off as a sophomore with an elite 3.02 yards per team pass attempt, a great 2.79 yards per route run, and strong market shares across the board with 27.11% of the team's catches, 34.98% of the yards, and 27.78% of the TDs. Finally, he maintained his production as a junior with a nearly identical 3.02 Y/TPA, 2.87 YPRR, and per game averages even as the team wasn't as good around him, resulting in improved rates of 32.06%, 44.34%, and 44.44%.

McMillan brings great size at 6'4.125" and 219 lbs, and although he didn't work out at the combine, he reportedly ran a more than adequate 4.53 40 yard dash at his pro day. That combination along with his track record of production means that he has all the traits to become an alpha receiver, and getting picked in the top-10 by a team who needs just that is enticing. Head coach Dave Canales has talked about running his passing attack through his top outside target and showed that through the beginning of last season with Diontae Johnson (before he apparently crashed out across multiple teams) and the prior year as offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay with Mike Evans. Adam Thielen getting traded last week opens up even more target opportunity, so McMillan should be the clear cut top rookie WR this season.

2. Travis Hunter - 1st round, 2nd overall, 1st WR* drafted - Jaguars (traded up)

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is of course a fascinating case since he will be playing cornerback in addition to wide receiver, hence the asterisk above. The fact that Jacksonville gave up a king's ransom to move up to take him with the #2 pick gives a good idea of their big plans for him, so he could end up being the better long-term investment in dynasty over McMillan. We don't know just how many of the offensive snaps that Hunter will be playing compared just yet, and his statistical profile won't overwhelm you, which is understandable given how he pulled double duty.

Only a month younger than McMillan, Hunter broke out as a 20 year old sophomore upon transferring to Colorado after shocking the world by initially going to HBCU Jackson State as the #1 recruit in the nation. He only had 2.04 Y/TPA and 2.17 YPRR, however, with a 23.36% reception share, 26.06% yards share, and 21.74% touchdown share. Those improved across the board last season to 2.61, 2.51, 27.20%, 30.43%, and especially to 40.54%, but that still isn't necessarily elite anywhere.

The scouts rave about Hunter's traits, though, and Reception Perception guru Matt Harmon mentioned his fluid movements in the same breath as a young Odell Beckham Jr. They have similar size with Hunter 6'0.375" and 188 lbs to OBJ's 5'11.25" and 198, and perhaps with more focus on developing more as a receiver, the comparisons could continue. The Jaguars already have Brian Thomas Jr. as a #1 option for the foreseeable future after an outstanding rookie year, but there is a ton of opportunity for targets behind him with the departures of Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram. New head coach Liam Coen brings an exciting element to this offense now after he followed in Canales' footsteps as the Buccaneers OC for one year before a promotion, and Hunter could end up playing a large role in it.