Looking at the Pieces Involved in Lillard's Trade to the...Bucks?!

Bucks receive:

Damian Lillard

$45,640,084

$48,787,676

$58,545,211

$63,228,828

Trail Blazers receive:

Jrue Holiday

$36,861,707

$39,403,893

Deandre Ayton

$32,459,438

$34,005,126

$35,550,814

Toumani Camara

$1,119,563

$1,891,857

$2,221,677

$2,406,205

2029 Bucks 1st round pick

Right to swap 1st round picks with Bucks in 2028 and 2030

Suns receive:

Jusuf Nurkic

$16,875,000

$18,125,000

$19,375,000

Grayson Allen

$8,500,000

Nassir Little

$6,250,000

$6,750,000

$7,250,000

$7,750,000

Keon Johnson

$2,808,720

$4,474,291

At long last, the NBA's last biggest soap opera came to a conclusion yesterday when Woj broke the news that the Portland Blazers finally found a suitable trade partner for franchise legend, Damian Lillard. Despite his agent's public comments about only being happy with landing in Miami, the Milwaukee Bucks stepped up out of nowhere with a fair offer that somewhat surprisingly included the Phoenix Suns getting involved. Based on the reporting, it's seemed for a while like GM Joe Cronin didn't really negotiate in good faith with the Heat, and you can argue each way about what each side "owed" each other out of loyalty over the years. In the end, it is the Blazers brass' job to do what's best for the team going forward, but it's debatable whether acting this way with the team that was most motivated to make the deal was the best way to do that. Shams even wrote this morning that they asked for Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo, which makes no sense for the rebuild that's about to start in Portland.

The final return is not bad at all, with a true judgment depending on what they are able to flip Holiday for since the 33 year old All-Star is surely to end up on a contender next. The long-rumored offer from Miami was based around three or four 1st round picks (by gaining one from sending Tyler Herro elsewhere), 2022 1st round pick Nikola Jovic, and expiring contracts, so that's what the end result will be compared to. What they have for sure is Ayton, and your view of the 25 year old former #1 overall pick will determine how well you think the Blazers did. The $102 million remaining on his 25% max contract is certainly not cheap, but getting off of 29 year old Nurkic's bloated contract is a plus. Ayton is of course immensely talented and now provides a high ceiling option in the front court to go along with their exciting young guards Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, and Anfernee Simons. Getting Camara thrown in after he looked like a steal at Summer League as the 52nd pick this past June was a nice plus, and the 23 year old joins Matisse Thybulle, Kris Murray, and Rayan Rupert as interesting options on the wing.

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 2 2023

I say it every year, but I feel like Week 2 in the NFL can be the most unpredictable. We're dealing with literally the smallest of sample sizes, teams can go from playing on the road to at home, and coaches make big adjustments to get a guy going after being underutilized in the opener like with D'Andre Swift, Christian Kirk, and Drake London. I'm not going to focus on big spikes like that this week and will instead save that for the future to see if it's a one game change or not, though.

Like last week (and how all weeks will be), snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) are from PFF as listed on FantasyLife.com.

• The week started on TNF with another high-volume TJ Hockenson game, continuing a trend ever since he was traded to Minnesota last year. After getting 6.14 looks per game for a strong 17.84% target share the first seven games in Detroit, that rose to an outrageous 9.44 and 23.42% in 9 full regular season games with his new team. The game not included in this sample is Week 18 when the Vikings pulled the starters ahead of their playoff game...in which he saw 11 of 39 targets (28.21%). That was bound to regress, especially with 1st rounder Jordan Addison providing tougher competition than the departed Adam Thielen, and Hockenson is at 19.54% through two games this season. However, he's averaging 7.5 catches after 6.36 in the 11 total games last season (so counting the 1 catch Week 18 game and 10 catch playoff game for a larger sample), and his 17-game pace would result in 111 catches. Incredibly, Hockenson STILL wouldn't hit 1,000 yards based on his wildly low 8.81 yards per catch in those games, and he's only averaging 6.57 yards per target to boot. 
  
  
• On the other end of the spectrum to Hock's 7.66 aDOT with the Vikings last year and only 4.75 so far this season, there's Kyle Pitts' utilization and sad subsequent production. The Falcons tight end had a huge 13.7 aDOT last year with only 62% of those passes deemed catchable, and so far this season those numbers are 13.92 and 58%. Pitts can run like a wide receiver, but these long passes just aren't working for Atlanta. If there's a bright side, it's that his usage has held steady in the first two weeks. Although he's only been in on 61.54% and 69.51% of the snaps (66.42% overall), running a route on 90.91% and 92.11% of the dropbacks (91.67% combined) has resulted in 16.67% and 17.24% target shares (17.02% in total). Getting these looks should result in better days ahead for the talented TE.
  
  

Gio-ing Deep: Notes from NFL Week 1 2023

NFL football is officially back, and this is probably my favorite time of year. Going from my birthday in early August to fantasy draft season to the actual games is always a blast, and now it's time to grind. I always track snap counts, targets, and carries for every player each week, and followers on Twitter know I used to post a thread each week with the hashtag #GIOingDeep sharing some observations. (Very creative title with my name, I know). This season I'm going to compile my thoughts on notable player usage into posts here for easier accessibility instead. The frequency will depend on when my schedule permits, but it will be a nice way to check in on how teams might be changing up the utilization of some players over the course of the season.

Snap counts are from Pro-Football-Reference.com; targets, carries, and PPR fantasy points data are from ESPN; and this season I'm also looking into PFF's routes run and average depth of target (aDOT) data listed on FantasyLife.com.

• The new season started with encouraging usage for Isiah Pacheco in Thursday's opening kickoff. He didn't get the official start, possibly since he's still working his way back from offseason surgery or simply out of veteran deference to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Pacheco led the backfield in snaps with 31 (47.69%) and carries with 8 (57.14% of the RB carries). More importantly, the second year back saw 4 looks through the air for a 10.81% target share after only getting 14 targets (2.28%) all of last season. Part of me wonders if CEH got the nominal start in order to try to showcase him for a possible trade, but in any case, Pacheco being more than just a two-down bruiser would be a welcome development.
  
  
  
• Speaking of running backs getting more targets than usual, Nick Chubb had the third-most looks on the Browns in Week 1 with 4 for a 13.79% target share. It was a middling 7.31% mark overall last season, but he finished the last six games at 8.97% with Deshaun Watson after only seeing 6.57% when Jacoby Brissett started the first 11 games. With Kareem Hunt no longer on the team to take passing down work, it could wheels up for Chubb.