Sunday, December 6, 2015

2015 NFL Week 13 Picks

Packers -3 at Lions

Never in doubt! Yeah right. I probably should have taken the home 'dogs considering they did pull off the upset in Lambeau last month, but that could also be viewed as extra motivation for a team in the playoff race. Regardless, that was some kind of throw by Aaron Rodgers to win it.

Bears -6.5 versus 49ers

I've gone back and forth on whether to just take the points or not, but the Niners defense just isn't the same on the road. Of course, their former defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, now holds that role in Chicago and should have been retained, either as the head coach or as the DC for Adam Gase, who ended up as offensive coordinator for the Bears.

Bengals -7.5 at Browns

With Johnny Manziel continued immaturity, it's the Austin Davis show in Cleveland, which shouldn't challenge Cincinnati. The way he mismanaged that 2 minute drill on Monday night was incredible, and their defense still has no chance of stopping the Bengals.
Andy Dalton shredded this defense in their previous matchup and shouldn't face much resistance again.

Jaguars +3 at Titans
Tennessee gets the home field spread, but they've been better on the road so far this year. Jacksonville's home win in this Thursday night matchup a few weeks ago was a bit lucky, but I like them getting points here.

Texans +3 at Bills

Buffalo is a bit more talented and at home, but I'm going to keep riding this hot Houston defense, especially with the points.

Dolphins -3 versus Ravens

I'm tempted to just take the points here, as well, but Matt Schaub has just been so bad in recent years. Buck Allen looked good in the feature back role like I hoped, but it's hard to be the only relevant skill position player and still win.

Vikings +3 versus Seahawks

I think the home 'dogs are the better team, and I'll keep picking them as Vegas continues to give them questionable lines.

Cardinals -3.5 at Rams

Yes, St. Louis dealt the Cardinals their first loss in Arizona earlier in the year, but they've been playing horribly of late. This line shouldn't have gone down this far.
David Johnson's been producing all year, and it's finally his time to shine in a feature role.
Falcons PK at Buccaneers

At some point, you'd expect Atlanta to turn things back around, and they gashed this defense in their previous meeting. That started Tampa's run of strong play, but they still have leaks on defense.

Jets +2.5 "at" Giants

I'm taking the points and the Jets in this faux road game because their defensive line should dominate the Giants' beat up interior line, but I am worried with Darrelle Revis out again. Odell Beckham Jr. has started to go nuclear again with 30 catches for 481 and 5 touchdowns over his last four games, and that kind of pace compares favorably to his rookie year, especially over those last 10 games after Victor Cruz got hurt:

Per game average
Past 4 games
Last 10 games of ‘14

16 game pace
Past 4 games
Last 10 games of ‘14

We're not talking about the largest of sample sizes here, but for reference, the single-season NFL records are 143 catches by Marvin Harrison in '02, 1,964 yards by Calvin Johnson in '12, and 23 touchdowns by Randy Moss in '07 (although Jerry Rice only played 12 games in the '87 strike season when he set the record at 22). OBJ is a special talent.

Panthers -6.5 at Saints

This line seems a little high considering the game is in the Super Dome, but Carolina's defense is just that much better than New Orleans'. I just can't see this Saints team being the ones to knock off the unbeaten.

Chiefs -3 at Raiders

I could see this one going either way, but I'm going to continue to ride with red hot Kansas City. Oakland could put up some points, but their secondary is going to have a hard time stopping Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce.

Broncos -6 at Chargers

Even with the line going up to a more appropriate spread, I'm not too worried about this one. San Diego has no home field advantage whatsoever nowadays, and they're going to struggle to move the ball on this defense.
Robert Pattinson--I mean Brock Osweiler has been even more impressive than I expected.
Patriots -8.5 versus Eagles

New England is a different team without Rob Gronkowski, but this line has dropped enough that it's reasonable. Even with the injuries continuing to mount, they are are at home against a team that appears to have quit on Chip Kelly.

Colts +9 at Steelers

Pittsburgh's horrible secondary reared its ugly head again last week, and their stout run defense gave up 101 yards to Thomas Rawls last week on just 19 carries. Although Ben Roethlisberger threw for 6 touchdowns in this game last year after top corner Vontae Davis got hurt and should be in line for another big night, I just don't trust their defense enough to lay the points against a team that's won 3 straight.

Redskins -3.5 versus Cowboys

I could see Dallas putting a scare in Washington, but Tony Romo going down again really puts a damper on their outlook. I'm laying the points with the home team, and they'll be in good position to take advantage of the NFC Least.

Last week: 10-6
2015 Season Total: 94-74-9

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