Sunday, December 13, 2015

2015 NFL Week 14 Picks

Cardinals -10 versus Vikings

I should've taken Minnesota once the line got this high, and they covered the original line, anyway. Their banged up defense held up better than I expected, particularly in the red zone to keep them in it.

Steelers +2.5 at Bengals

Although I kind of like the home to win it, I can't lay points against Big Ben in his native Ohio, where he is 18-4 in his career, including the playoffs.
Cameron Heyward and this defensive line will have to make plays to cover up for their secondary.
Bills PK at Eagles

Where did that come from for Philadelphia? There's more scuttlebutt in the media about Chip Kelly with the DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy situations, and it's hard to tell how that will affect the team's performance. I'm not going to count on three return touchdowns again, though.

Panthers -8.5 versus Falcons

At this point, you can't trust Atlanta at all, and Carolina is hard to pick against until they actually lose.

49ers +1.5 at Browns

As a Niners fan, I was conflicted with that overtime win since it hurts their draft position in this lost season, and now they get another winnable game against a Cleveland team that has lost seven in a row. Blaine Gabbert has almost played well enough to question the need for a QB in the first round. Almost.

Redskins +3.5 at Bears

I don't feel good about either of these teams, especially with Washington traveling on short rest, so I'm just taking the points.
DeSean Jackson should get more opportunities to redeem himself against this defense.

Lions -3 at Rams

I was surprised St. Louis opened as favorites before the line shift 5.5 points. Detroit's on the road, but they've had 10 days of rest to prepare to get rid of that awful taste in their mouth after the Hail Mary loss.

Chiefs -11 versus Chargers

This line has gotten uncomfortably high, but Kansas City is rolling and at home against a San Diego team running out of players to throw to.

Buccaneers -4.5 versus Saints

I still don't completely trust Tampa, especially at home, but I do trust New Orleans' defensive ineptitude.
If Mike Evans can hold onto the ball, I like his chances of find the end zone again.

Colts +2 at Jaguars

The money's come in on the previous home 'dogs, shifting the line 3.5 points and making them the favorites, which worries me. I'm sticking with Indy and the points, but I don't have a ton of confidence in Matthew Hasselbeck taking advantage of Jacksonville's secondary. Vontae Davis against Allen Robinson should be a fun battle on the other end.

Jets -7 versus Titans

Speaking of A-Rob, did you see what he did against this Tennessee defense? Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker should have a field day. Marcus Mariota gets a much tougher test this week against this defense with Darrelle Revis coming back.

Seahawks -11.5 at Ravens

Poor Jimmy Clausen is facing Seattle again in another spot start even though he's on a new team. Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, and Thomas Rawls has this offense rolling, and it isn't likely to stop here.
Seattle is starting to look scary.

Broncos -6.5 versus Raiders

This game was close in Oakland before Chris Harris Jr. sealed it with a pick-6, but now it's in Denver with Brock Osweiler looking more competent than Peyton Manning this year. This isn't a good spot to get Amari Cooper and Latavius Murray out of their slumps.

Packers -6.5 versus Cowboys

Green Bay may have gotten lucky last Thursday night, but now they're back at home against a shaky Dallas team on short rest. I like this line staying under a touchdown.

Patriots -3.5 at Texans

New England had a rare undisciplined home loss last week, and I doubt they don't clean things up this week. The possible return of Rob Gronkowski is obviously a great sign, as well.

Giants -2 at Dolphins

The division is still right there for the taking for New York, and they should be able to move the ball against this inconsistent Miami team. Odell Beckham Jr. continued his hot streak that I pointed out last week with 6 catches for 149 yards and a score, and I see no reason that it will end any time soon. The 'Phins best chance is to keep feeding Lamar Miller, as they should have been doing all year.

Last week: 6-9-1
2015 Season Total: 99-84-10

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