Saturday, November 28, 2015

2015 NFL Week 12 Picks

Eagles +2 at Lions
Cowboys PK versus Panthers
Packers -8 versus Bears

Have I mentioned that I hate Thursday games? I should have known better than to think Philadelphia would make a last push for the playoffs in their poor division since they apparently quit on Chip Kelly; shouldn't have gotten too cute thinking this was the week Carolina finally stumbles just because of the schedule; and should have went with my first instinct of taking the points with Chicago, with a healthy skill position group, given Green Bay's inconsistency this year. That will put a dent in my season total listed below.

Texans -3 versus Saints

Every fantasy football player in the world knows Brian Hoyer and all Houston players are strong plays this week against the league's worst defense, even if Rob Ryan was replaced with Dennis Allen. New Orleans coming off a bye is a little bit of a concern, but rookie Kevin Johnson and this Texans defenders are hitting their stride.

Vikings +2 at Falcons

I can see why Atlanta is favored considering that they're at home and have Julio Jones going against an up and down secondary, but Minnesota is just the better team. Although I like Tevin Coleman's chances as the starter again with Devonta Freeman out with a concussion, Mike Zimmer's defense and Adrian Peterson should pull out the win.
Yo, Adrian! (You'll be hearing that a lot this weekend with Creed out and what should be a big game)

Bengals -9 versus Rams

After back to back prime time losses, Cincinnati is back at home for a banged up St. Louis offense that was already one-dimensional. A healthy Vontaze Burfict and this defense should be able to handle this one to get back in the W column and stay in the hunt for a first round bye.

Colts -3 versus Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is playing well on both sides of the ball right now, so I almost just took the points in what should be a competitive one. These Colts always seem to rally, though, so I'm taking the home team since the matchups look about even across the board.

Giants -2.5 at Redskins

New York is in pole position for the NFC Least, and they're starting to get healthy on defense after their bye week. The healthy pair of Jason Pierre-Paul and Prince Amukamara make a big difference for this pass defense. On the other side, Chris Culliver unfortunately suffered another ACL tear, and Eli Manning has been hot against Washington, compiling a 9:1 TD to interception ratio in their last 3 meetings and going 16-6 against them in his career, overall.
With New York's injured O-line, expect a lot of quick passes to OBJ.
Raiders -1 at Titans

The Lions' improved play of late makes Oakland's loss last week a bit more understandable, and they have another winnable road game against the 2-8 Titans. With their inability to cover tight ends, Delanie Walker could make this interesting, but I don't think Tennessee will be able to move the ball consistently on the ground.

Chiefs -4.5 versus Bills

I've flipped back and forth on whether to just take the points here, but Tyrod Taylor hasn't looked the same since his MCL injury. I continue to like how Kansas City has gotten their offensive line and secondary together after the way the season started, and even though Charcandrick West is likely out with a hammy, Spencer Ware should be able to pick up the slack against a banged up Buffalo defensive line in Arrowhead after his 96 yards and 2 TDs on just 11 carries last week.

Jets -4 versus Dolphins

New York's defense has been underwhelming in recent week and will be without Darrelle Revis at corner, but their stout run defense should be able to shut down Miami. With the Jets huge receivers going against the 'Phins' smallish corners, I like the home team.
I have a feeling Brandon Marshall will find the end zone again in a #RevengeGame against one of his former teams.
Jaguars -5 versus Chargers

I've been on Jacksonville most of the year, but this line scares me a bit. I'm laying the points against San Diego and their banged up offensive line and hoping T.J. Yeldon stakes the Jags to an early lead so that they can tee off.

49ers +10 versus Cardinals

Blaine Gabbert continued to look competent and almost covered the spread in Seattle, and the Niners' defense is completely different at home. Of course, with Carson Palmer finally has all his receivers healthy enough to play, this Super Bowl contender could just tear an overmatched team apart, so this could all be moot. I'm taking the points with the home 'dog, but I don't feel great about it.

Steelers +3.5 at Seahawks

The aforementioned Seattle pass defense hasn't been as imposing as the "Legion of Boom" of years past, and Pittsburgh's aerial attack has been on fire. Thomas Rawls looked great once again in place of Marshawn Lynch, but the Steelers' run defense is among the best in the league.

Broncos +3 versus Patriots

I was wrong about one of the unbeatens falling this week, but New England is in a much more precarious position with their injury issues and an opponent that's actually good. Bill Belichick will have something in the works against young Brock Osweiler, but the Pats will have a hard time moving the ball on Denver's elite defense, as well. With the game in Mile High, I like the upset.

Ravens +3 at Browns

I don't know if things can get any worse for Baltimore with both Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett joining so much of their team on the injured reserve list, while Cleveland has problems of their own with Johnny Manziel continuing to make poor decisions. Josh McCown surprisingly picked apart this defense in Baltimore, but the Ravens have fixed some of their leaks in recent weeks. I'm taking the points in this battle of mediocrity.
I was high on Buck Allen coming into the year, and it'll be his show from here on out.
Last week: 7-4-3
2015 Season total: 83-71-9

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