I wasn't too far off about Buffalo having struggles moving the ball but didn't account for New York constantly shooting themselves in the foot.
Packers -10.5 versus Lions
After facing back to back great defenses on the road, I like Green Bay's chances of putting up points in Lambo. In particular, I like Randall Cobb going against Josh Wilson in the slot.
Cowboys -1 at Buccaneers
Matt Cassel's had his ups and downs, but this is a good opportunity to finally lead Dallas to a win against a bad secondary. It's pretty amazing that Tampa is now 1-11 at home under Lovie Smith.
|At least Cassel knows to just give Dez Bryant a chance to make a play.|
I was tempted to take Tennessee and the points again after they paid off for me last week, but Carolina is in a different class than New Orleans. The Panthers should be able to run the ball much more effectively in this one.
Bears +7 at Rams
There's always the chance of Todd Gurley running wild, but this line is too high considering how these teams have been playing. Jeremy Langford looked as good as I hoped on Monday Night Football, and he should keep Chicago in the game.
Redskins PK versus Saints
This one has a chance to be a repeat of the Giants/Saints game from a few weeks ago with a 50 point over under in this matchup of shaky secondaries. I like the home team with the stronger front seven to pull this one out.
I have a feeling Kirk Cousins' fantasy owners are going to be yelling this a lot this weekend.
This line seems like a bit much, but Philadelphia has been playing pretty good all-around ball lately while Miami has come back down to earth under Dan Campbell. The Eagles should be able to contain the 'Phins on the ground and make them one dimensional.
Steelers -6.5 versus Browns
If you're worried about laying this many points with Landry Jones in just his second start, just look at the point totals Cleveland has been giving up. On the other side, Pittsburgh can stop their rushing attack, and I don't think Johnny Manziel and these receivers can make enough plays through the air.
Jaguars +5.5 at Ravens
Although I like Baltimore to pull one out at home coming off a bye week, I've got to take the points against their secondary. I think Jacksonville can play the run pretty well, and Joe Flacco is just running out of bodies to throw to after the devastating Steve Smith injury. Kamar Aiken could pick up the slack this week, but first rounder Breshad Perriman needs to get healthy in order to provide a true threat.
Vikings +3 at Raiders
This should be a fun game between two second year QBs that were pretty much passed over by every team in the league. I like the way Minnesota's defense matches up with Oakland's offense better than the unit on the other side, so as long as Teddy Bridgewater is good to go after his concussion, they should be set.
|It's always weird to me when teams play each other in both the preseason and real thing.|
Denver's dominant defense showed some chinks in the armor last week, and their running game from the previous game appears to have been a mirage. With Andy Reid's amazing 14-2 record after bye weeks and their offensive line coming together, I'm taking Kansas City in an upset.
Patriots -7 at Giants
Dion Lewis tearing his ACL was horrible news for a young player who has already bounced around three previous teams due to injury, and it will be interesting to see how New England replaces the threat of him out of the backfield as James White doesn't have the same dynamic presence. This game is built to be a Rob Gronkowski showcase against New York's linebackers and safeties, and the Patriots pass rush is good enough to get to Eli Manning.
|Watch out for the Honey Badger in prime time.|
Cardinals +3 at Seahawks
Seattle gets the 3 point advantage at home here, but Arizona is the more complete team. I think their defensive front will be too much for the Seahawks' poor offensive line in this battle for the NFC West between two teams coming off byes.
Bengals -11 versus Texans
Cincinnati gets extra rest with an appearance on Monday Night Football coming off their Thursday night win and faces another big underdog at home. Their defense should be able to contain DeAndre Hopkins to a certain extent since he's Houston's only real threat while the Texans have given up big plays all year.
Last week: 11-2
2015 Season Total: 68-59-6