NFL 2020 Week 7 Picks

Last week had the potential to be great but ended up just "pretty good" at 9-5. The Houston loss was the biggest swing game in my pick 'em pool, and the fact that they were that close to being up 9 with 1:50 left before giving up the touchdown in overtime to not even cover the +5.5 was devastating. Baltimore's 16 point lead with 7:12 left dwindling to just a two point win was frustrating in a different way since yet another terrible pass interference call kickstarted Philadelphia's final drive. I'm not as mad about Green Bay blowing their 10-0 lead after the first quarter since they ended being dominated the rest of the way, but I am just upset with myself for the Dallas pick after writing about the narratives of Kyler Murray in AT&T Stadium and Andy Dalton in prime time. Alas, I still gained ground in my group, and we're onto another week!

*I also want to plug my latest contribution to The Sports Fan Journal: Six Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates to Trade For, which digs into snap rates, rushing share, and target share to find underrated values.*

Home Favorites

Eagles -3.5 versus Giants

Welp, that was a frustrating game with the red zone interception and missed 29 yard field goal keeping New York in the game. There was even still a chance if the first two-point conversion would've worked to make it 21-18 before the winning touchdown, but at the same time, Philadelphia was fortunate to win the game at all. 

Falcons -2.5 versus Lions

There is a little bit of a theme here with teams favored despite having a worse record, and I'm following the money in this case. It's hard to tell how much of Atlanta's turnaround win last week was due to the coaching change and how much was just due to bad Kirk Cousins interceptions, but they looked good on the road. Now they're back at home with Julio Jones appearing back to full speed, so I'm expecting them to put up a lot of points against Detroit. Matthew Stafford could match his buddy Matt Ryan score for score, especially since both are incredibly good in the two-minute drill, but the former hasn't looked quite as sharp in the early going.

NFL 2020 Week 6 Picks

Last week went roughly how I expected with my picks breaking even, but I have more confidence in this slate. The spreads were more in line with how I felt about the matchups, so I'm up to seven favorites this week with a lot of appealing road favorites in particular.

Home Favorites

Patriots -8.5 versus Broncos

I picked the other side of this last week, but since the game was postponed, Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore are back for New England. Having your best player on each side of the ball available obviously makes a bit of a difference, and while Drew Lock is also expected back for Denver, Bill Belichick having extra time to prepare against a young quarterback usually means good things.

Steelers -3.5 versus Browns

Pittsburgh letting Philadelphia hang around last week was a little concerning, but they covered the -7.5 in the end. This spread isn't as daunting, and despite it being (barely) over a field goal in a divisional game, everyone knows Ben Roethlisberger's record against teams from his native Ohio. Against the Browns specifically, the Steelers are 23-2-1 with Big Ben starting.

Dolphins -8.5 versus Jets

It's actually a little surprising that this line isn't even higher considering the dumpster fire that is New York. Adam Gase and Gregg Williams continually blaming others just shows how bad they are as coaches.

Road Underdogs

Texans +5.5 at Titans

I'm mad at myself for not picking Houston last week since I normally go with teams in the first game after firing a coach. Maybe it would've been a different story if Jacksonville's fourth kicker of the season had actually made his attempts, or maybe the Texans can actually turn things around. In a divisional game with Tennessee coming off of an unusually short week, I like the upset here.

NFL 2020 Week 5 Picks

After a subpar Week 4, I don't have a strong feel for this slate of games, either. There were only two mathchups between teams that both have winning records, and after last night's game, only the Browns and Colts affair remains. That's resulted in a lot of high spreads to navigate.

Home Underdogs

Bears +5.5 versus Buccaneers

Well, that wasn't the ending I expected, but I did like getting that many points with a good defense at home for a Thursday game. It was definitely uncomfortable picking Nick Foles against Tom Brady, but it's not the first time he pulled off the upset, of course.

Of all the pirate jokes, I’ve never heard the “how much does it cost to pierce an ear” one Tony Gonzalez just said 🤣. Almost good enough to sway my tentative Bears +5.5 pick

— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) October 9, 2020

Titans +6.5 versus Bills

This game isn't part of the usual CBS Sports slate that my pick 'em pool is on, so I'm using the line form VegasInsider.com, which is quite a bit higher than I thought it would be. Buffalo should have the advantage after all of the nonsense around how Tennessee handled their COVID-19 outbreak, but I think it will still be close. The silver lining of the early "bye week" is that it gave more time for A.J. Brown to get healthy, and if the Titans can get some mismatches with him in the slot, there will be be big plays to be had against a defense that has sprung more leaks than usual in second halves.

Road Favorites

Cardinals -7.5 at Jets

Arizona suffered a harsh wakeup call that they aren't as good as they seemed last week as road favorites, but they get an easier task against the worst team in the league. Sam Darnold wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he at least demonstrated some creativity in a terrible situation. Fill-in starter Joe Flacco isn't likely to have much left in the tank.

Rams -8.5 at Washington

LA likewise didn't cover last week, but they at least won and are now getting Kyle Allen in his first start for Washington. I don't think "knowing the system" will make up for a lack of talent, especially against a defense as capable as the Rams'. 

Colts -2.5 at Browns

Indianapolis has pretty much been in complete control of all of their games after that Week 1 wakeup call, so I feel pretty good about only having to lay a field goal here. Maybe I'm selling Cleveland short after three straight wins of their own, but I still have a hard time believing in their ability to keep up with good teams. It is hilarious that Kevin Stefanski has as many wins (3) in just four games as Hue Jackson had over his 40 game tenure, though.

NFL 2020 Week 4 Picks

That was more like it. I won my pick'em pool last week, and hopefully that will continue as the sample size continues to grow for each team. I'm leaning on favorites a little more than I'd like this week, but the matchups are producing large spreads for a reason.

Road Favorites

Broncos -3.5 at Jets

I was hesitant to lay more than a field goal on the road in Brett Rypien's first career start after it dropped to pick'em in Vegas, but the Jets are just so so bad that I couldn't take them. Adam Gase using his timeouts at the end in a two possession game and then sending the heat at Rypien was the worst, and it's no wonder that Vic Fangio, whom Gase coached with in Chicago, was ready to blow up afterwards.

Colts -2.5 at Bears

My Chicago pick ended up a bit lucky with that big comeback, but their streak of dramatic 4th quarter wins should come to an end against their toughest opponent to date. Indianapolis has coasted to wins after that Week 1 wakeup call against Jacksonville, and they've looked like the playoff contender expected of them on both sides of the ball. Maybe Nick Foles gives the Bears some juice, but I still have no problem laying just a field goal with Philip Rivers against him. 

Cardinals -3.5 at Panthers

I'm not going to overreact to Arizona taking their first loss or Carolina getting their first win; the Cardinals are pretty clearly the superior team, especially with Christian McCaffrey still out. The status of DeAndre Hopkins' ankle is worth monitoring, but the offense should have their way with the unimposing Panthers defense. Expect Kenyan Drake to get on track like the all of the previous running backs that have faced them so far.

Bills -3.5 at Raiders

Similarly, I don't expect the banged up Las Vegas defense to offer much resistance in this one. As mad as I was about Buffalo getting bailed out by a phantom pass interference penalty last week to ruin my upset pick, I can't let that affect my objectivity here. They should put up plenty of points, and their defense should bounce back against a Raiders offense lacking in perimeter weapons at the moment. With the corners the Bills have, they can put them on an island and simply load up in the middle to stop Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller.

NFL 2020 Week 3 Picks

Week 2 did end up a bit weird, although it wasn't quite in the way I expected. Every Vegas favorite except the Saints (and Eagles depending on when you checked the line) won their game, but only half of them covered. Just about all of my 50/50 calls went the wrong way, so hopefully I'm due for some positive regression to the mean.

Home Favorites

Jaguars -3.5 versus Dolphins

My first instinct was to take the points in a battle of bad teams, especially being more than a field goal, but I overreacted to getting lucky last week with a backdoor cover for the road team. Since I typically like the home teams on the short week, I stuck with that even though I liked a lot of the matchups for Miami players in fantasy like Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, and Myles Gaskin. That should've been my first hint.

Steelers -3.5 versus Texans

After facing Kansas City and Baltimore, Houston's tough schedule continues, and I'm honestly surprised this line isn't a little higher. Things will open up after this, but Deshaun Watson is going to be under pressure all day against the Steelers' blitz. And aside from Bradley Roby possibly slowing down Diontae Johnson's continued breakout, Houston's defense appears vulnerable again.

#Steelers have 4 players ranked in the top 6 of total pressures generated:

▪️ Bud Dupree - 14 (T-2nd)
▪️ TJ Watt - 13 (3rd)
▪️ Stephon Tuitt - 12 (T-6th)
▪️ Cameron Heyward - 12 (T-6th) pic.twitter.com/xMZogha2k7

— PFF (@PFF) September 25, 2020

Patriots -6.5 versus Raiders

Las Vegas turned things around in a big way on MNF from the 2nd quarter on, but now they're on the road against a much better defensive mastermind. Bill Belichick isn't going to let them rely so heavily on Darren Waller in the passing game, and the New England corners should bounce back against the young receivers. On the other side, Cam Newton has looked great and should threaten the Raiders defense much more consistently than Drew Brees was willing to.

NFL 2020 Week 2 Picks

Week 2 is always my least favorite week to make picks because you can't overreact to a small sample size, and most teams that were at home last week are now on the road and vice versa. I'm trying to focus on how teams performed and not just the results from the opening games, so hopefully that will convey in the picks.

Road Underdogs

Bengals +5.5 at Browns

Sometimes bad beats work in your favor.

Vikings +3.5 at Colts

In a battle between two of the most disappointing teams in Week 1, I'll take the points. I don't think that Philip Rivers can pick apart Minnesota's defense in the way that Aaron Rodgers did, but Kirk Cousins could have success with short passes like Gardner Minshew last week. I am curious to see how much Indy features Jonathan Taylor in the wake of Marlon Mack's unfortunate Achilles tear since Nyheim Hines is unsurprisingly a favorite target of Rivers. Eric Kendricks is one of the game's best coverage linebackers, though, so the Vikings should be in good position to bounce back.

Jaguars +9.5 at Titans

Jacksonville won't be sneaking up on another division rival this time, but they showed that they can at least hang in there to keep this a close game. Although I almost wrote about Corey Davis as this year's DeVante Parker as a former 1st round pick with all of the physical tools who struggled with injuries and offensive situation, I'm not sure Tennessee's passing attack is going to blow away anyone to cover large spreads. A.J. Brown's absence with a bone bruise certainly doesn't help in that regard.

Panthers +9.5 at Buccaneers

While I fully expect Tampa Bay to be the team that gets their first W in this one, this is also too high of a spread for my taste. As I feel like I constantly pointed out last, the Bucs have not been a particularly good home team with last season's 2-6 record following three straight 4-4 performances. Carolina's defense (or lack thereof) is going to cure a lot of team's offensive woes this year, but they showed last week that they can put up points themselves with the Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Brady partnership. 

Giants +5.5 at Bears

Daniel Jones gets no reprieve going from Pittsburgh's defense to Chicago's, but aside from the red zone mistake, he looked comfortable moving the ball in the new offense. After the Bears were a bit lucky to pull out their win after that wild fourth quarter, this should be another close one. Maybe they'll get off to a faster start with Allen Robinson fed early and often after being unhappy with his extension negotiations, but I'd like to see Mitchell Trubisky translate that strong finish to a full game before laying the points.

NFL 2020 Win Totals, Breakout Players, and Week 1 Picks

We made it! After some serious doubt about whether there would be an NFL season in the year of COVID-19, kudos to the players, staff members, and league protocols for their diligence in preventing the spread of the virus. Now we can enjoy can enjoy America's biggest game and everything that comes with it. This post will go over picks for each team's win totals, Week 1 spreads, and breakout fantasy players. You can also check out my new post on The Sports Fan Journal, Ranking the Top-10 Rookie WR Situations.

These are win totals listed on FanDuel Sportsbook, which I hope will one day include California; the expected wins stat is from ProFootballReference.com based on points scored and allowed; and the lines are from my usual picks pool on CBS Sports, where I'm the reigning champ with a 145-111 record. The key to my success was not to overrate homefield advantage: home favorites were just 63-99 against the spread while road favorites went 50-44. That could prove even more true this season with the lack of fans in attendance. 

Chiefs: 12-4, 11.4 expected wins, 5-4 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 11.5 wins

As much as it broke my heart, they were worthy champions and locked up their core in the offseason. This is a high win total, but it feels pretty safe considering that they were 11-3 in Patrick Mahomes' starts. That number is now up to 24-7 in his career plus 4-1 in the postseason, and it would be no surprise to see him pick up his second MVP in three years as the starter. He's the face of the league for a reason.

Breakout player: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

I swear this was already my pick before his impressive debut last night as it's hardly an original idea. Andy Reid offenses are always fantasy friendly for shifty, pass-catching running backs like Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Brian Westbrook, and the fact that CEH is the only one he's ever invested a 1st round pick in tells you everything you need to know, especially with Reid's draft day comparison to Westbrook. On a national champion LSU team, he averaged 1.83 yards per team play with 13.96% of the team's receptions, strong numbers for a prospect.

Andy Reid even gave Jamaal Charles’ #25 to CEH. Destined for fantasy greatness

— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) September 11, 2020

Texans: 10-6, 7.8 expected wins, 8-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 7.5 wins

Although they are due for some regression based on their point differential and luck in close games, Houston still has the best quarterback in the division, and Bill O'Brien has won 9 or more games in five out of six years there. Yes, they didn't get enough for DeAndre Hopkins after not wanting to give him the extension he ended up getting in Arizona, but there are still plenty of pieces to work with from last year's team that had a 24-0 lead on Kansas City in the Divisional Round. Returning to the playoffs may be out of reach this year, but .500 is attainable.

Breakout player: Will Fuller

Another one from before last night that got off to a good start. He's coming into the season having only made it through 21 healthy games (including the playoffs) with Deshaun Watson over three season due to injuries for both, but they have shown a brilliant connection. Fuller averages 6.81 targets, 4.57 catches, 72.57 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns in those contests, and over 16 games, that's a 109-73-1,161-11 stat line. With Hopkins gone, his 20.85% target share has plenty of room for improvement, so hopefully his reportedly added muscle helps him stay healthy.

Week 1 line: Chiefs -9.5 versus Texans

It's always nice to start the season off on the right foot.