Summer's Over: It's Football Time!

After a two month hiatus, I'm back and ready for some football. My last post was before the NBA Draft, and my recap of that and the rest of basketball's offseason moves has been on hold during this busy summer. After working with the national champions of summer league baseball, the Santa Barbara Foresters, I went to Las Vegas for my 21st birthday and later to Reno for my dad's birthday with some time back home in between. We explored various sports books looking for the best football odds, and here's what I put my money on:

• -110 that the Colts will win OVER 5 games: $50 to win $45.45
• +105 that the Niners will win OVER 10 games: $50 to win $52.50
• +550 that the Niners will win the Super Bowl: $35 to win $192.50 
• +220 that the Niners will win @ Green Bay in Week 1: $15 to win $33

I feel very good about the value I got in these bets, with the latter two obviously being ambitious and less likely, but after seeing the odds at some other sports books, I know that I got good deals. If I am being honest with myself, I think that the real Super Bowl favorites, the Packers, will win it all, but where's the fun in that? That's what my season preview is for. (For the most part, I was spot on in my picks last year with one glaring omission, but we'll get to that later...)

Came close to betting this SB matchup, but is that my pick?

Part 1: The Big Picture

(Parts 2 and 3 will go team by team through the conferences)

NBA Big Board 2012

Finally, my favorite draft class in a long time is here. Due to the lockout truncated season, the Finals feel like they JUST happened (because they did), but here we are. There are all kinds of rumors out there, and a number of trades have already occurred this week as a precursor to what looks like a busy draft day. It's nearly impossible to predict things in a mock draft with so much mystery looming, so here is my simple big board of prospects--66 was a nice, random number to cut it off at to try to include everyone who could be drafted. I will provide explanation after the draft with the overall draft analysis, but here are my my previous rankings with descriptions and initial lottery mock draft (you can also click the "NBA Draft" tag for more).

1. Kentucky PF Anthony Davis
2. Kentucky SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
3. Florida SG Bradley Beal
4. North Carolina SF Harrison Barnes
5. Kansas PF Thomas Robinson
6. UConn C Andre Drummond
7. UConn SG Jeremy Lamb
8. Weber St. PG Damian Lillard
9. North Carolina PF John Henson
10. Syracuse SG Dion Waiters 
11. Illinois C Myers Leonard
12. North Carolina C Tyler Zeller 
13. North Carolina PG Kendall Marshall
14. Kentucky PF Terrence Jones
15. Baylor PF Perry Jones III
16. Washington SG Terrence Ross
17. Duke SG Austin Rivers
18. Ohio St. PF Jared Sullinger
19. Baylor SF Quincy Miller
20. St. John's SF Moe Harkless
21. Miss St. PF Arnett Moultrie
22. Washington PG Tony Wroten
23. Kentucky PG Marquis Teague
24. St. Bonaventure PF Andrew Nicholson
25. France SG Evan Fournier
26. Iowa St. PF Royce White
27. Kentucky SG Doron Lamb
28. Vanderbilt SF Jeff Taylor
29. Memphis SG Will Barton
30. Syracuse C Fab Melo
31. Vanderbilt C Festus Ezeli
32. UCSB SG Orlando Johnson
33. Vanderbilt SG John Jenkins
34. Kansas PG Tyshawn Taylor
35. Kentucky SF Darius Miller
36. Michigan St. PF Draymond Green 
37. New Mexico PF Drew Gordon
38. Marquette SG Darius Johnson-Odom 
39. Oregon St. SG Jared Cunningham 
40. Tennessee St SG Kevin Murphy 
41. Turkey PF Furkan Aldemir
42. Marquette SF Jae Crowder 
43. Texas A&M SF Khris Middleton
44. Iona PG Scott Machado
45. Duke C Miles Plumlee
46. Czech SG  Tomas Satoransky 
47. Ohio St. SG William Buford
48. Syracuse SF Kris Joseph
49. Xavier PG Tu Holloway
50. Norfolk St. C Kyle O'Quinn
51. Missouri SG Kim English 
52. West Virginia PF Kevin Jones
53. Florida St. C Bernard James
54. Alabama PF JaMychal Green 
55. Virginia PF Mike Scott
56. Georgetown SF Hollis Thompson
57. Alabama SG Tony Mitchell 
58. Georgetown C Henry Sims 
59. Gonzaga C Robert Sacre 
60. Missouri SG Marcus Denmon
61. Purdue SF Robbie Hummel
62. Long Beach St. PG Casper Ware
63. Missouri PF Ricardo Ratliffe
64. Baylor PF Quincy Acy 
65. Wisconsin PG Jordan Taylor
66. LSU C Justin Hamilton

Initial Reaction to Last Night's Lottery Results

We should have know. Well, more specifically, I should have known better than to not bet on the NBA-owned Hornets in the lottery (to be fair, Saints owner Tom Benson should officially become the owner over the summer). [EDIT: I should add that while suspect, I am not one to believe in conspiracy theories. Zach Lowe's excellent coverage of the lottery process make it pretty clear that it is practically impossible to rig the results.] When looking at the betting odds for the lottery, I went with the 8/1 Kings because they almost always drop in the lottery process, and I thought they were due for some positive energy to help harbor their arena situation. Plus, an all-Kentucky frontcourt of Anthony Davis with DeMarcus Cousins would have been incredible. I stared long and hard at the 5/1 odds for the Hornets as a secondary bet but didn't pull the trigger. Alas, it's over now, and the lottery order is now set after the unusual occurrence of just one team jumping up while the rest held to form. Let's mock:

1. Hornets: Kentucky F/C Anthony Davis: A no-brainer that should help the team's chances of re-signing restricted free agent Eric Gordon if they open up the wallet. It's unclear whether or not the team will re-sign Chris Kaman and/or trade Emeka Okafor, but Davis would fit with either of them as well as rookie Gustavo Ayon, who showed to be a solid rotation big man.

The 'Brow is excited to go back to the city where he won the  National Championship.

Revisiting Old Ideas for the Thunder and Lakers

Despite the typical excitement of a Game 7, another slugfest between the Celtics and Sixers is not expected to be the highlight of this Memorial Day weekend (I'm picking Boston at home to continue the streak of alternating wins in this series, by the way). That right is reserved for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and the Spurs. This is the matchup we have been waiting for, and the two teams are a combined 16-1 so far in the playoffs, hardly encountering any speed bumps on their roads to face each other. I should have picked this fairly obvious Conference Finals matchup because, as I said in my playoff picks, if I'm being honest with myself, the Spurs are the best bet to win it all. They are just an absolute machine right now, going 32-3 in their past 35 games (which includes resting their starters), and they are an incredible 43-4 in their last 47 games in which Tony Parker plays, as John Hollinger points out.

I love Leonard 's game, but he lacks the size on KD

However, there are two key factors that I think could give the Thunder the Conference crown. The first is how coach Scott Brooks manages his rotation. As I have consistently argued, Oklahoma City's best lineup is when it goes small with Kevin Durant as the power forward, and as many have pointed out, this strategy can be especially effective against the Spurs. San Antonio prefers to only have one "bruiser" playing inside at a time: coach Popovich usually plays "stretch 4's" Boris Diaw and Matt Bonner alongside Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter. Durant would have no difficulties on defense against them, and this lineup would cause matchup  trouble for the Spurs because the Thunder would have an extra perimeter weapon on the floor instead of another non-threatening big man. San Antonio does not necessarily have anyone with the size to guard Durant (although rookie Kawhi Leonard, who I still maintain was the steal of the draft, has made things tough on him), so how Pop handles his rotations against him will be interesting to watch as well.

Could the Thunder emulate the '05 Suns? What if they signed Steve Nash?

With the Oklahoma City Thunder having swept the defending champs on Saturday, there hasn't been much to think about other than their possible second round opponent and the condition of starting center Kendrick Perkins' hip strain. The former seemed like a near certainty once the Lakers took a 3-1 lead on the Nuggets, but after Tuesday's entertaining Nuggets win in L.A., the series looks very interesting with the series returning to the high altitude of Denver tonight and Kobe Bryant a game-time decision with a stomach ailment. Depending on the result of that series and the status of Perkins' hip (he's still listed as "day-to-day"), the Thunder could face some interesting decisions with its starting lineup.

2012 NBA Playoffs

This is such a great time of year. The weather is amazing, the NFL Draft is in full swing, and the NBA playoffs are about start. Beautiful. This space would be remiss without some "forecasting" about the playoffs, but first I should note that the first big postseason win happened on Friday by a non-playoff team. That's right, the Warriors' process of tanking that has probably received too much coverage is almost complete after winning the random draw with the Raptors to secure the 7th best odds in the Lottery. That means they have a ~72% chance of keeping their pick now and just have to pray that a team below them doesn't win the lottery. Is it sad that their biggest win of the year didn't involve an actual game? Let's move on...

Carmelo is not going to stop LeBron's quest for a ring.

Will Shabazz and Nerlens Team Up, Avengers Style?

As my friend Vince likes to constantly say: Timing is EVERYTHING. Right now, the timing is all coming together in a whirlwind of events in the college basketball world. Today, Nerlens Noel and Shabazz Muhammad, the top two high school prospects, are set to announce their college choices at the same time on ESPNU. Coming away from playing together at the Nike Hoops Summit just last weekend, it wouldn't be surprising to hear the best defensive and offensive players of their class decide to team up at Kentucky.
(By the way, I can't believe Marvel's greatest heroes are set to team up in the highly anticipated Avengers movie in less than a month now! And as I found out today, you can watch all five previous films from the series before the midnight premiere at select locations. Brilliant.)