Last week: 11-5
Season total: 125-99
Ravens -12.5 versus Colts
Let's just ignore the Colts franchise returning to Baltimore narrative since that clearly doesn't impact these games with the current teams, as evidenced by aforementioned Ravens in Cleveland game last week. The fact of the matter is that Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense has found their groove and are facing an undermanned Indianapolis secondary on a Colts team that seemingly falls apart every second half.
Vikings -2.5 at Packers
This is benefiting from the fact that CBS Sports doesn't update the lines after news happens during the week like Aaron Rodgers going back on IR because Green Bay was eliminated from the playoffs, but hey, I don't make the rules. If I'm going to suffer in fantasy football by losing the star QB I stashed just a week after Carson Wentz also went out, then so are the Packers! (It also doesn't hurt Minnesota's chances that their surprisingly steady passing game is facing the 26th ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA.)
Call this a gut feeling with Tennessee at home with their backs against the wall to save their spot in the playoffs, but I think this will be a letdown game for LA. They're coming off their monster divisional win in Seattle and now have to travel all the way to Nashville to face a team that's strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Hopefully the Titans run more no huddle to keep Marcus Mariota more comfortable like last week.
Lions -3.5 at Bengals
This could be Cincinnati's last stand for Marvin Lewis, but they seem like a team that's checked out because they know changes are coming. Getting Joe Mixon, Vontaze Burfict, and Dre Kirkpatrick back healthy could make a difference, but Detroit's soft run defense probably won't get exploited by the Bengals' poor offensive line.
Redskins -3.5 versus Broncos
I'll admit that although I guessed this line exactly, I have no feel for the matchup at all. If Paxton Lynch is healthy enough to start, I'm definitely going with Washington, but if it's Brock Osweiler, he actually looked impressive on the road last week. In the end, though, Kirk Cousins is better than either and is at home. That should be enough, despite the differences in defenses.
Falcons +5.5 at Saints
On the one hand, Atlanta won this matchup just a couple of weeks ago, but on the other, it was a sloppy game that they were a bit lucky to win at home. I'd lean towards New Orleans winning this time around as the home side, but since it should be close either way, give me the points.
Bears -6.5 versus Browns
I know, I know, Chicago has not won as a favorite under John Fox while Hue Jackson's last two wins have come on Christmas Eve. But think about the 0-33 part of Jackson's last 35 games coached. There is no way I'm picking them again with him as coach.
Patriots -12.5 versus Bills
It might be closer than the 23-3 drubbing in Buffalo a few weeks ago, but probably not by much considering now the game is in New England. Former Bill Eric Lee might not have 1.5 sacks again, but if he can generate any semblance of a pass rush, that would be huge for this defense that severely lacks it. The offensive side of things shouldn't be a problem after Rob Gronkowski showed how dominant he is last week after his suspension for his outrageous hit against these Bills. Although the cheap shot was inexcusable, it came out of frustration over being held on the play that counted as a pick against Tom Brady, and the reason he was interfered with was because they can't cover him. No one can, really.
Chiefs -10.5 versus Dolphins
A defense that is great at creating turnovers at home has Jay Cutler coming to town? Sign me up! And on the other side, a defense that generally struggles against tight ends isn't likely to prevent a bounce back game from Travis Kelce.
Chargers -6.5 at Jets
Although this has the makings of a typical Chargers WTF game against an inferior opponent in December, they might have gotten it out of their system last week. They already won in New York earlier this year against the Giants, and I'm not exactly afraid of Bryce Petty against their strong pass defense or Morris Claiborne trying to keep up with the league's best route Keenan Allen.
Panthers -9.5 versus Buccaneers
This pick has gone back and forth for me because Jameis Winston has started to play better since coming back from injury, and defensive stars Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David could be coming back this week for Tampa, as well. Carolina's defensive front should wreak havoc at home, though, and Cam Newton has a good chance of tearing apart this porous pass defense.
49ers +4.5 versus Jaguars
I'm probably drinking too much of the Jimmy G Kool-Aid, but it's hard to argue against the results so far. Blake Bortles has been playing some great ball in his own right, even after another wide receiver got injured last week, but now he's on the road after those three big games at home. He might also have to carry a heavy load despite Leonard Fournette's return because San Francisco has held four straight opponents to under 100 yards rushing. Part of that is thanks to Garoppolo and the offense keeping them off the field and out of negative game scripts, but the defense also seems to be hitting their stride now that they have more experience in the scheme and consistency in the lineups now that they have more healthy bodies, particularly Reuben Foster.
In his five undefeated starts, Jimmy Garoppolo's average stat line is 23.8 of 34.4 (69.19%) for 300.8 yards with 1.2 TDs and 0.4 interceptions. That's 16.37 fantasy points per game w/ room for red zone improvement— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) December 18, 2017
Cardinals -4.5 versus Giants
Who knows where that offensive explosion came from for New York last week, but it's not likely to continue on the road against an Arizona defense that ranks in the top 10 in both pass and run defense DVOA for the #5 ranking overall. Going back to Drew Stanton isn't inspiring for the Cardinals, but given that we just saw the Giants get lit up by a backup quarterback, it might not matter much either way.
Seahawks +4.5 at Cowboys
Along with Carolina, this was probably my hardest pick of the week since it's hard to trust either of these teams. Dallas won by the slimmest of margins and is on a short week, and although Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension should be a boost, you never know. Seattle just got embarrassed at home and are weirdly feuding in the public eye. I'm taking the points and more consistent quarterback in Russell Wilson while praying that Bobby Wagner is more effective now that he's another week out from the injury.
Steelers -9.5 at Texans
Antonio Brown is out on offense, but Joe Haden should be back on defense, which is the bigger concern for this team as they try to slow down DeAndre Hopkins. Le'Veon Bell can shoulder the load against this underwhelming Houston defense, so as long as the defense can hold onto a lead on the road against T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh should stay in position for a playoff bye to help get Brown more rest.
Eagles -8.5 versus Raiders
Oakland's defense has played better since the switch to John Pagano as defensive coordinator, but it's a tough task to travel across the country to face a team that's still one of the best in the league even after losing their quarterback. Nick Foles looked fine out there in place of Wentz, and their defense should get back to their shutdown ways against the up and down Raiders offense.
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