2017 NFL Week 15 Picks

Hard to contain my excitement that I’m seeing STAR WARS in a couple of hours. Going to miss seeing how my Denver -2.5 pick does, but if ever there was a TNF game to skip...

— David Giovanazzi (@SF_DavidGio) December 15, 2017

First of all, yes, I thoroughly enjoyed The Last Jedi with its character struggles, misdirection, and ups and downs. Second, the Thursday win means I'm now 50-27 against the spread since Week 10. Here's to hoping I don't screw up whatever is working.

Last week: 9-7
Season total: 114-94

Lions -5.5 versus Bears

Admittedly, this line is slightly higher than I expected after Detroit had to squeak out a win in Chicago four weeks ago, but I like them to take care of business now they're at home and stay in the playoff hunt.

Chiefs +1.5 versus Chargers

This is really toss up since Kansas City won handily all the way back in Week 3, but LA has definitely been the better team of late. For as good as the Chargers are against the pass, though, they can be vulnerable on the ground against Kareem Hunt. Give me the home team here.

Saints -15.5 versus Jets

New Orleans will have had 10 days to get over their tough loss on the road, and now they get Bryce Petty at home in his first start of the season. Both the offense and defense should have big days in this matchup.

Jaguars -11.5 versus Texans

I might change this pick in the morning if Leonard Fournette ends up being ruled out, but really, this game is about third string quarterback T.J. Yates going on the road against an elite defense that seemingly has no flaws. This might be one of those games where you expect Jacksonville to score more when they're actually on defense.

Eagles -7.5 at Giants

On the one hand, I stand by my Giants pick last week because they really did hang tough with Dalls through three quarters. On the other, it's a four quarter game, and that final frame showed how badly things can get out of hand for them. I know, Carson Wentz tearing his ACL is horrible for Philly and the NFL as a whole, but Nick Foles can get the job done in easy matchups like this.

Bills -3.5 versus Dolphins 

Miami with the points was my initial pick after how well they've played the last couple of weeks, but then I remembered that they were at home for both of those while Buffalo also plays well at home. This game is in Buffalo, so I won't overreact too much after the 'Phins keep burning me and stay against them once more here.

Browns +6.5 versus Ravens

After venting my frustrations with Cleveland last week, I definitely felt vindicated to see Hue Jackson's team collapse last week, even if they really should have won or at least covered. That being said, this spread feels too high being in Cleveland and with the Baltimore defense suddenly unable to get stops since Jimmy Smith went down. I'm holding my nose and taking the points with the home 'dog.

Vikings -10.5 versus Bengals

Cincinnati's performance at home last week is up there for one of the biggest headscratchers of the year, but they were heavily shorthanded, especially on defense. That's still the case this week, and now their offense that can't stay on the field is on the road against Minnesota's shutdown squad.

Packers +2.5 at Panthers

I'm not saying Aaron Rodgers being cleared to return right after Wentz went down for the year makes Green Bay the favorites in the favorites in the NFC now, but they can certainly run the table with the two-time MVP back under center.

Washington -4.5 versus Cardinals

Not only is Blaine Gabbert a shaky backup quarterback on the road against a decent defense, but Arizona is 2-9 in 10 AM PST starts the last two years, with seven losses by double digits. Take the better QB and the home side.

Rams +1.5 at Seahawks

LA was this close to beating Seattle back in Week 5, and although playing up in Century Link is a much more difficult task, they're also facing an undermanned defense this time around. Maybe Russell Wilson pulls this one out with some ridiculous plays, but I'd say the Rams are the more complete team.

Patriots -2.5 at Steelers

I should have taken New England's struggles in Miami more seriously last week, and while that no-show was shocking, they have won their last four games against Pittsburgh, including a 27-16 win in Heinz Field last year. The Steelers defense has fallen apart without Joe Haden and Ryan Shazier, and although the former is a game time decision for this one, the Pats are getting Rob Gronkowski back from his brief suspension.

49ers -1.5 versus Titans

An 8-5 team being an underdog against a 3-10 squad seems preposterous until you consider how ugly Tennessee's games have been of late and how good San Francisco has looked with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. He set the franchise record with 627 yards passing in his first two starts, won both games on the road (albeit against sub-par teams), and is facing a pass defense that ranks just 23rd in DVOA and will be missing leading sack man Derrick Morgan.

Cowboys -2.5 at Raiders

Oakland looks lost on offense and can hardly field a complete secondary at this point with both defensive backs they took in the first two rounds, Gareon Conley and Obi Melifonwu, on IR. Conversely, I should have stuck with Dallas last week considering how much of an impact linebacker Sean Lee makes on their defense. They should win their third straight to end up being 3-3 during the Ezekiel Elliott suspension.

Falcons -6.5 at Buccaneers

From a Thursday night game all the way to Monday Night Football, Atlanta should be well-rested against a team that's lost eight out of nine and has even more holes on the roster now that start defensive tackle Gerald McCoy suffered another biceps injury. Unless Matt Ryan keeps throwing the ball to the wrong team, I have a hard time seeing Tampa Bay getting a ton of stops.