Sunday, March 18, 2012

Trade Grades

Well, how was that for a trade deadline? With the unexpected decision by Dwight Howard to opt in to his contract for next year, keeping him with the Magic until the summer of 2013, the dominoes began to fall hard and fast. Of course, the first big blockbuster of the week occurred two days before the deadline between the Warriors and Bucks, as I anticipated last week. It takes a while to gain a little perspective to determine who are the winners or losers in these trades, but here's some quick trade grades:
*Note: all salary figures courtesy of ShamSports.com
Warriors: Traded Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson. Then traded Jackson for Richard Jefferson, T.J. Ford, and a lottery protected 2012 first round pick. Purchased a second round pick from Atlanta for undisclosed cash considerations.
B
The good:

  • You have to give the Warriors credit for taking a risk in order to finally secure a franchise center, which Bogut is when healthy. The health is the tricky thing, but his major injuries have never been related and are more of the freak accident variety. Sitting him out the rest of the year should help the tanking cause, however, and it should be noted that (at the time of the trade) since being drafted #1 and #40 overall in the 2005 draft, "injury-prone" Bogut has played 408 games and Ellis has played (wait for it) 413. This is not unlike the Mavericks addition of Tyson Chandler last season, as Zach Lowe points out.
  • The undersized, ineffective backcourt of Stephen Curry and Ellis is finally broken up. It was ill-fated from the beginning, and now the keys to the offense next year can officially be handed to Curry at long last. I'm not completely sold on Klay Thompson as the shooting guard of the future, but he has a lot more length than Ellis and now has the door open for him to see what he's got.
  • In addition to the tanking cause being helped to secure their top-7 protected draft pick, they made sure to at least have a late first round pick in this deep draft, likely in the 25-30 range depending how the Spurs finish, by trading for Jefferson and Ford instead of bringing back the malcontent Jackson, who forced his way out of Golden State in 2009 on bad terms. Of course, he wouldn't have that big contract (due $10 million next season) if they hadn't been dumb enough to give him that idiotic 3 year, $27 million extension in 2008 when he had TWO YEARS left on his current deal.
  • Monta and Udoh were nice additions for the Bucks' playoff push.
  • They also purchased a second rounder from Atlanta that will be whichever is later between the two that the Hawks own. The Hawks couldn't find a deal to get under the luxury tax, so they could use some extra cash for their cheap ownership to pay the bill, and Joe Lacob, to his credit, was happy to oblige.
The bad:
  • The Warriors had to take back Jefferson's albatross contract ($21 million over the next two years), which is a high price to pay for a late first rounder. They also took back the recently retired T.J. Ford, who makes just under $1 million. The Spurs included him just to shave their luxury tax a bit more, and insurance likely covered his buyout from the Warriors.
    • Having to include Udoh as a sweetener in addition to taking on salary and the risk in Bogut's health definitely hurts. He has been their best defensive player while showing a nice mid range jumper, but let's be honest: he's almost 25 already, doesn't have much upside left, and is undersized to play center full time, which he would have to for this team with the presence of David Lee on the roster. Now, the Warriors wouldn't have this problem if they would have done the proper thing at draft time in 2010 and selected Greg Monroe instead of Udoh OR hadn't given Lee such a huge contract in the Anthony Randolph sign-and-trade just a month after the draft.
    • Trading away Ellis, arguably the face of the franchise, is not popular with the fans at all. Of course, the fans aren't paid to make decisions, and they don't always take into account his poor defensive fundamentals or shot selection to go with his empty scoring totals. He had some value for his ability to get his own shot, and this is probably the best deal they could get for him, albeit with the inherent risk. If it works out with Bogut's health, then this is a great move for the long-term because you always take the franchise center over the inefficient, high usage shooting guard. That's a big if, though.

    Bucks: Traded Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson for Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown.
    A- 
    The good:
    • They're definitely the short-term winners, replacing two players who, for different reasons, weren't contributing to their playoff push with two players who should help in a big way. They've long been in dire need for someone who can create his own shot alongside Brandon Jennings, which Ellis, for all his warts, can certainly do at a high level. Their defense has fallen apart without Bogut anchoring it, and Udoh will help fix that.
    • They have some time before committing to the undersized Jennings-Ellis backcourt long-term. Ellis is fairly paid at a steady $11 million, but he has a player opt out after next season, which he hinted he would do if things didn't turn around with the Warriors. That is also when a possible Jennings extension would go into effect, so the Bucks could break up this pairing quickly if they don't like what they see. I think it could work, however, mainly because Ellis will finally be surrounded by competent defenders in a system that will hold him accountable. Having Scott Skiles as coach and players like Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Carlos Delfino around him should hide Ellis' defensive shortcomings.
    • With the differences in salary and Brown's expiring contract, the Bucks open up an extra $9.5 million in cap space this summer, which will help in their efforts to re-sign surging forward Ersan Ilyasova. Depending on what happens with Beno Udrih and Shaun Livingston's contracts or the use of the amnesty clause, they could potentially have max salary-level cap space.
    Spurs: Traded Richard Jefferson, T.J. Ford, and a 2012 first round pick for Stephen Jackson.
    B+
    The good:
    • Jefferson had become somewhat superfluous within the Spurs' rotation with the emergence of Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green playing better than even I expected. Jackson is held in high regard there after winning a championship with them in 2003, and with his passing, he should provide more dynamic contributions than Jefferson, who is now mostly just a spot up shooter. Coach Pop can manage him well and keep him in check in case things go awry.
    • Jackson and Jefferson both make a little more than $10 million next year, but Jefferson has an expensive player option of $11 million the following year that he will almost surely exercise. They also were able to include the recently retired Ford in the deal in order to trim their luxury tax bill.
    The bad:
    • Giving up a first round pick is never ideal, especially since Spurs are so good at finding gems with their later picks, and this is such a deep draft.
    • There is always uncertainty with the risk that comes in Jackson, and although he played there before, he might not fit their system as well as Jefferson, who now has a couple of years in it under his belt.
    Pacers: Traded a second round pick for Leandro Barbosa.
    A-
    The good:
    • The Pacers had over $14 million in cap space, so they were able to absorb Barbosa's $7 million salary without having to give up a player in return. He's not a perfect fit as another scoring guard who isn't great at setting up others, but his ability to create his own shot and outside shooting can certainly help their rotation. Gaining a useful player on an expiring contract for a mere second round pick is a very good deal made available by the smart cap management under Larry Bird's watchful eye.
    The bad:
    • There's no way to tell what offers were available, so it's hard to fault them for not making a better deal.
    The Brazilian Blur could be a welcomed addition to the Pacers.
    Raptors: Traded Leandro Barbosa for a second round pick.
    B
    The good:
    • They gain an asset, albeit a small one, for a player who wasn't in their future plans anyway. They also save some money on Barbosa's salary for the rest of the season while also opening up more minutes for Jerryd Bayless, a very similar player who they can now get an extended look at before his rookie contract ends.
    The bad:
    • You have to wonder if they could have used Barbosa's expiring contract as a part of a better deal, but again, without knowing what was out there, you can't find any criticism in the deal.
    Grizzlies: Traded Sam Young for the draft rights to Ricky Sanchez.
    C
    The good:
    • They got under the luxury tax line, which is the whole point of this deal. They were just over the threshold and shedding Young's $1.2 million salary provided significant savings, something that the Athlanta Hawks failed to accomplish in a similar situation.
    The bad:
    • This was a straight salary dump since Sanchez isn't coming to the NBA. Young had recently lost his rotation spot, but he is still a useful player. Giving him away for nothing because of sloppy cap management is not good.
    76ers: Traded the draft rights to Ricky Sanchez for Sam Young.
    B+
    The good:
    • They gain a rotation caliber playing absolutely free of charge. Young is a tough defender and good slasher from the wing. He's a restricted free agent this summer so there doesn't have to be any commitment if things don't work out.
    The bad:
    • Young isn't a good shooter, which is what they need in their already crowded wing rotation.
    Lakers: Traded Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, and their 2012 first round pick for Ramon Sessions and Christian Eyenga. Traded Derek Fisher and a 2012 conditional first round pick (via Dallas) for Jordan Hill.
    A
    The good:
    • These were both good moves, but the first one was an absolute steal. Sessions is one of the most underrated point guards in the league, and simply replacing the Lakers' mediocre point guard production with his above average play will pay huge dividends. He is terrific in the pick and roll, creating good looks both for himself and for teammates, which will take some of the playmaking pressure away from Kobe Bryant. However, although he has made significant strives this year, Sessions is not a good outside shooter or defender, so he's not a perfect fit on this roster with his inability to properly space the floor. He has a player option for $4.5 million that he may elect to exercise in order to find a long term deal in free agency.
    • Eyenga is a nice throw in as he had lost his spot in the Cavaliers' plans, but he has shown in the past to be a highly athletic wing prospect. Hill has failed to live up to expectations as a lottery pick in 2009, but he is an active big man on both ends of the floor who can provide some much needed athleticism off the bench. He sometimes looks lost, but his rebounding and decent mid-range jumper should be a welcomed addition, especially as an expiring contract.
    • The real crux of these deals are the financial implications. They shed about $550,000 in the Cleveland deal and about $1.3 million in the Houston deal (once you factor in Walton's trade kicker), and those savings are doubled once you take into account the luxury tax. Furthermore, Fisher was on the books for $3.4 million next year, and Walton is now set to make $6.1 million next year. Giving away first round picks in order to drop these contracts was already fair enough, but to also get player upgrades is a huge haul for the Lakers.
    Sessions is a huge upgrade at point guard.
    The bad:
    • First round picks are always valuable, especially in this draft, so it is unfortunate that these contracts were so bad that these picks had to be sacrificed to move them. Even late picks are useful to find cheap, young rotation players, which is what this team needs.
    • Fisher is no longer a productive player, but losing his leadership and veteran locker room presence could prove costly.
    Cavaliers: Traded Ramon Sessions for Luke Walton, Jason Kapono, and a 2012 first round pick.
    B-
    The good:
    • Sessions is more valuable than a typical backup point guard and wasn't in their long term plans with Kyrie Irving, the Rookie of the Year frontrunner, looking the part of a #1 overall pick. Sessions was probably going to opt out of his contract this summer anyway, so turning him into a valuable asset as an extra first round pick helps their rebuilding plans.
    The bad:
    • Having to take back Walton's $6.1 million salary for next year while giving up a valuable player for a pick in the 20's is a high price. One has to think that Sessions could have fetched a better deal elsewhere. Also, I wish Eyenga would have gotten more of a chance this year after flashing some potential last year, but he certainly is no deal-breaker.
    Rockets: Traded Jordan Hill for Derek Fisher and a 2012 first round pick. Traded Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet, and a future second round pick (via Minnesota) for Marcus Camby.
    B+
    The good:
    • The Rockets didn't give up anything of significance while improving their team both now and for the future, although not substantially so. Hill has played well as an undersized back up center and may still have some potential, but turning him into an extra first round pick in this loaded draft and a solid backup point guard in Fisher is a good move, especially with Kyle Lowry out 2-4 weeks with a bacterial infection. Flynn and Thabeet weren't in the rotation, so flipping their expiring contracts for Camby is quite the savvy trade. Now, one of their biggest weaknesses, defensive rebounding, will be shored up for their playoff run by Camby, who has an offseason home in the Houston area and should be amicable to coming home in a better situation as the backup center.
    The bad:
    • This is yet another trade that is merely trimming around the edges while gathering assets instead of the blockbuster that GM Daryl Morey would prefer. At some point, these assets need to actually turn into difference makers instead of just filling the roster with a bunch of above average players and failed experiments. To this point, along with the shipping off of Hill, Flynn, and Thabeet, Terrence Williams was cut, bringing an end to their motley crew of other teams' 2009 lottery picks. Of course, if it weren't for The Veto in December, they would have acquired their star in Pau Gasol, possibly accomplished their goal of signing Nene to pair with him, and probably kept Jeremy Lin as their third point guard after the numbers crunch for roster spots. Thanks Commisioner Stern!
    Trail Blazers: Traded Marcus Camby for Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet, and a future second round pick (via Minnesota). Traded Gerald Wallace for Shawne Williams, Mehmet Okur, and a top-3 protected 2012 first round pick.
    A-
    The good:
    • The sudden rebuilding movement is in full force and off to a great start. They now have an extra lottery pick in this loaded draft class to go with their own likely lottery pick, assuming they continue to lose after firing coach Nate McMillan. Furthermore, Nicolas Batum is going to be a restricted free agent while Wallace could opt out of his $9.5 million salary for next year, and they couldn't afford to pay both of them market value since, despite their versatility, they play the same position. With this trade, they are instead only committed to Williams' $3.1 million while having a trove of cap space to both re-sign Batum and pursue a high-priced free agent--depending on whether or not Jamal Crawford, looking for long-term security, opts out of his $5.2 million salary for next year, they could be somewhere between $25-30 million under the cap.
    • They picked up a (very) small asset in the second round pick while also getting a free look at two formerly highly regarded point guard and center prospects, two areas of need for the long term. Flynn and Thabeet aren't likely to be difference makers, but the Blazers get a chance to evaluate them with no long term commitment. Camby is going to become a free agent, anyway, so they aren't giving up anything while also opening up minutes for smaller lineups of LaMarcus Aldridge at center with stretch fours such as second year player Luke Babbit or the newly acquired Williams. Batum can also now play all of his minutes at forward instead of masquerading as a shooting guard, thereby opening up more minutes for potential laden combo guard Elliot Williams.
      Rebuilding around Aldridge should be swift.
    The bad:
    • The fact that this situation suddenly had to turn into a rebuilding process after a hot start to the season. They had a strong point differential for their record, indicating some tough luck in close games, and they began to tune out their coach, resulting in his firing. The two players supposedly responsible for the "mutiny," Crawford and Raymond Felton, were unable to be dealt, but based on what I have heard, I like the potential of new coach  Kaleb Canales as a former video coordinator.
    Nets: Traded Shawne Williams, Mehmet Okur, and a top-3 protected 2012 first round pick for Gerald Wallace.
    C
    The good:
    • After Dwight Howard took himself off the table, the Nets got the closest thing they could to a star to pair with Deron Williams, a free agent to be. Small forward was by far the biggest hole in their lineup, so filling it with the near All-Star caliber play of Wallace should improve this team significantly. Whether he opts in to his $9.5 million salary for next year or if they re-sign him as a free agent, they shed Shawne Williams' mid-sized contract, so they should be able to pursue a solid free agent, re-sign Brook Lopez in restricted free agency, and, ideally, re-sign D-Will. Wallace was also coveted by the Magic in a possible Howard trade, so he could become an important trade chip if this drama repeats itself next year.
    • They apparently only saw three players--Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Thomas Robinson--as true impact players that they loved, so if the ping-pong balls fall their way in the lottery, the pick is top-3 protected.
    The bad:
    • Just because they see those three players as the top prospects doesn't mean other teams feel the same way! Suppose their pick ends up as the 4th or 5th pick and Harrison Barnes and Andre Drummond get picked in the top three (a possible and likely scenario), then suddenly two of the players they covet are available. This is a huge price to pay for a soon-to-be 30 year old player whose game relies a bunch on his quickness and athleticism and could leave this summer.
    • Either with Wallace or without, Williams could depart for his hometown of Dallas, leaving them with no prospects and without their lottery pick for the rebuilding process. Perhaps a trade of Williams would have been more prudent.
    Clippers: Traded Brian Cook and a future second round draft pick (via New Orleans) for Nick Young.
    A-
    The good:
    • For just an expiring contract and small asset, the Clippers were able to serve as a facilitator in the Nuggets-Wizards deal because they were one of just two teams that Young, an L.A. native, would waive his bird rights to join, therefore approving the trade. He certainly has his flaws as an inefficient, shoot-first, shoot-second, shoot-third shooting guard, but he fills a big need for them on the wings. They were already undersized at the position, but they have especially struggled since Chauncey Billups was lost to an Achiles injury for the year and Randy Foye has been forced into the starting lineup. At 6'7", Young gives them some much needed size and the versatility to play small forward as well, which is a nice upgrade that essentially comes for free.
    The bad:
    • There's not much to criticize with this move, but I suppose he could hurt their already poor defense.   He's better than his shoot-only reputation would indicate, but he's no defensive stopper by any means.
    Nuggets: Traded Nene for JaVale McGee and Ronny Turiaf.
    B
    The good:
    • The Nuggets apparently felt some buyer's remorse after signing Nene to that 5 year, $65 million contract this past off-season. He's 29 and somewhat injury prone, so they swapped him out for the much younger and cheaper McGee, who is arguably just as productive. McGee is looking for a payday in restricted free agency this summer, but he isn't likely to fetch more than the 4 years, $52 million left that was on Nene's deal. They also picked up a useful big man on an expiring contract in Turiaf.
    • In addition to clearing salary that could help them re-sign current restricted free agent Wilson Chandler, who is now eligible to come back from China, and extend Ty Lawson, who is eligible this summer for a contract extension that would kick in for the 2013-2014 season, they also gain a large trade exception that could be valuable in improving their already flexible roster. (Hat tip to John Hollinger for that one.)
    The bad:
    • In the short term, McGee is a significant downgrade from Nene. McGee's on-court antics have been well-documented, such as here (my favorite part of that video is how the creator, while calling him an idiot, describes the 7' McGee as 13 inches taller than the 5'9" Isiah Thomas), but even his gaudy numbers are misleading and the result of his low basketball-IQ. Besides the insensible goaltending, he is often out of position defensively, chases unlikely blocks, and relies mostly on his athleticism for rebounds instead of properly boxing out, which results in the Wizards being a worse rebounding team with him on the court, as noted by Zach Lowe. Maybe he will finally mature under the tutelage of coach George Karl, but right now, Nene is a much better player with his smart positioning and passing.
    Could McGee surpass Nene in the future?
    Wizards: Traded JaVale McGee, Nick Young, and Ronny Turiaf for Nene, Brian Cook, and a future second round pick (via New Orleans).
    B
    The good:
    • They're finally making moves to change the culture of their locker room, shedding themselves of the immature McGee and Young and adding a no-nonsense veteran in Nene. They were wary about committing big time money to McGee in restricted free agency this summer because of those maturity concerns, and rightfully so. They know what they're getting in Nene: a good player on both ends who is a strong finisher at the rim, makes good cuts and passes, positions himself well on defense, and rebounds at a solid rate, and although he does have a large contract going forward, their books are mostly clean with such a young team. Via ShamSports.com, the last year of Rashard Lewis' massive contract only has $10 million guaranteed next season, and, if they so desire, they still have the amnesty clause to use on Andray Blatche, the other poison in the team culture. They'll have another high lottery pick this year to surround franchise cornerstone John Wall with, and all of these rookie contracts will be the only commitments alongside Nene's sizable deal.
    The bad:
    • Picking up a 29 year old, oft-injured big man with a large contract while giving up a potential filled 24 year old center isn't exactly the ideal way to rebuild. If Nene really is on the decline and begins to mail it in with such a bad team around him, then that could severely stunt Wall's growth. 

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