NFL 2020 Week 8 Picks

Appropriately for Halloween, this is a bit of a scary week with some high spreads. There are eight games with teams favored by 3.5 on CBS Sports for my pick 'em pool compared to only one that is under a field goal. That already came back to haunt me in yesterday's game, which makes me a little better about leaning towards divisional favorites the rest of the weekend.

Home Favorites 

Panthers -3.5 versus Falcons

I was worried about laying more than a field goal in this tight divisional affair, and it turned out Carolina's defense wasn't actually good enough to win period.

Packers -6.5 versus Vikings 

Aaron Rodgers kicked off Minnesota's disastrous defensive season and is likely to continue it back at home with Davante Adams firing on all cylinders now that he's healthy. Dalvin Cook's return after the bye is a boost for the Vikings, but if they fall behind early, that could limit how much they're able to run him.

Chiefs -19.5 versus Jets

A spread of this size would lead to me taking the points a lot of the time, but you've got arguably the best team in the league at home against the worst team. Don't get cute; the Kansas City defense proved me wrong last week with their ability to extend a blowout.

NFL 2020 Week 7 Picks

Last week had the potential to be great but ended up just "pretty good" at 9-5. The Houston loss was the biggest swing game in my pick 'em pool, and the fact that they were that close to being up 9 with 1:50 left before giving up the touchdown in overtime to not even cover the +5.5 was devastating. Baltimore's 16 point lead with 7:12 left dwindling to just a two point win was frustrating in a different way since yet another terrible pass interference call kickstarted Philadelphia's final drive. I'm not as mad about Green Bay blowing their 10-0 lead after the first quarter since they ended being dominated the rest of the way, but I am just upset with myself for the Dallas pick after writing about the narratives of Kyler Murray in AT&T Stadium and Andy Dalton in prime time. Alas, I still gained ground in my group, and we're onto another week!

*I also want to plug my latest contribution to The Sports Fan Journal: Six Fantasy Football Buy-Low Candidates to Trade For, which digs into snap rates, rushing share, and target share to find underrated values.*

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Eagles -3.5 versus Giants

Welp, that was a frustrating game with the red zone interception and missed 29 yard field goal keeping New York in the game. There was even still a chance if the first two-point conversion would've worked to make it 21-18 before the winning touchdown, but at the same time, Philadelphia was fortunate to win the game at all. 

Falcons -2.5 versus Lions

There is a little bit of a theme here with teams favored despite having a worse record, and I'm following the money in this case. It's hard to tell how much of Atlanta's turnaround win last week was due to the coaching change and how much was just due to bad Kirk Cousins interceptions, but they looked good on the road. Now they're back at home with Julio Jones appearing back to full speed, so I'm expecting them to put up a lot of points against Detroit. Matthew Stafford could match his buddy Matt Ryan score for score, especially since both are incredibly good in the two-minute drill, but the former hasn't looked quite as sharp in the early going.

NFL 2020 Week 6 Picks

Last week went roughly how I expected with my picks breaking even, but I have more confidence in this slate. The spreads were more in line with how I felt about the matchups, so I'm up to seven favorites this week with a lot of appealing road favorites in particular.

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Patriots -8.5 versus Broncos

I picked the other side of this last week, but since the game was postponed, Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore are back for New England. Having your best player on each side of the ball available obviously makes a bit of a difference, and while Drew Lock is also expected back for Denver, Bill Belichick having extra time to prepare against a young quarterback usually means good things.

Steelers -3.5 versus Browns

Pittsburgh letting Philadelphia hang around last week was a little concerning, but they covered the -7.5 in the end. This spread isn't as daunting, and despite it being (barely) over a field goal in a divisional game, everyone knows Ben Roethlisberger's record against teams from his native Ohio. Against the Browns specifically, the Steelers are 23-2-1 with Big Ben starting.

Dolphins -8.5 versus Jets

It's actually a little surprising that this line isn't even higher considering the dumpster fire that is New York. Adam Gase and Gregg Williams continually blaming others just shows how bad they are as coaches.

Road Underdogs

Texans +5.5 at Titans

I'm mad at myself for not picking Houston last week since I normally go with teams in the first game after firing a coach. Maybe it would've been a different story if Jacksonville's fourth kicker of the season had actually made his attempts, or maybe the Texans can actually turn things around. In a divisional game with Tennessee coming off of an unusually short week, I like the upset here.

NFL 2020 Week 5 Picks

After a subpar Week 4, I don't have a strong feel for this slate of games, either. There were only two mathchups between teams that both have winning records, and after last night's game, only the Browns and Colts affair remains. That's resulted in a lot of high spreads to navigate.

Home Underdogs

Bears +5.5 versus Buccaneers

Well, that wasn't the ending I expected, but I did like getting that many points with a good defense at home for a Thursday game. It was definitely uncomfortable picking Nick Foles against Tom Brady, but it's not the first time he pulled off the upset, of course.

Of all the pirate jokes, I’ve never heard the “how much does it cost to pierce an ear” one Tony Gonzalez just said 🤣. Almost good enough to sway my tentative Bears +5.5 pick

— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) October 9, 2020

Titans +6.5 versus Bills

This game isn't part of the usual CBS Sports slate that my pick 'em pool is on, so I'm using the line form VegasInsider.com, which is quite a bit higher than I thought it would be. Buffalo should have the advantage after all of the nonsense around how Tennessee handled their COVID-19 outbreak, but I think it will still be close. The silver lining of the early "bye week" is that it gave more time for A.J. Brown to get healthy, and if the Titans can get some mismatches with him in the slot, there will be be big plays to be had against a defense that has sprung more leaks than usual in second halves.

Road Favorites

Cardinals -7.5 at Jets

Arizona suffered a harsh wakeup call that they aren't as good as they seemed last week as road favorites, but they get an easier task against the worst team in the league. Sam Darnold wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he at least demonstrated some creativity in a terrible situation. Fill-in starter Joe Flacco isn't likely to have much left in the tank.

Rams -8.5 at Washington

LA likewise didn't cover last week, but they at least won and are now getting Kyle Allen in his first start for Washington. I don't think "knowing the system" will make up for a lack of talent, especially against a defense as capable as the Rams'. 

Colts -2.5 at Browns

Indianapolis has pretty much been in complete control of all of their games after that Week 1 wakeup call, so I feel pretty good about only having to lay a field goal here. Maybe I'm selling Cleveland short after three straight wins of their own, but I still have a hard time believing in their ability to keep up with good teams. It is hilarious that Kevin Stefanski has as many wins (3) in just four games as Hue Jackson had over his 40 game tenure, though.

NFL 2020 Week 4 Picks

That was more like it. I won my pick'em pool last week, and hopefully that will continue as the sample size continues to grow for each team. I'm leaning on favorites a little more than I'd like this week, but the matchups are producing large spreads for a reason.

Road Favorites

Broncos -3.5 at Jets

I was hesitant to lay more than a field goal on the road in Brett Rypien's first career start after it dropped to pick'em in Vegas, but the Jets are just so so bad that I couldn't take them. Adam Gase using his timeouts at the end in a two possession game and then sending the heat at Rypien was the worst, and it's no wonder that Vic Fangio, whom Gase coached with in Chicago, was ready to blow up afterwards.

Colts -2.5 at Bears

My Chicago pick ended up a bit lucky with that big comeback, but their streak of dramatic 4th quarter wins should come to an end against their toughest opponent to date. Indianapolis has coasted to wins after that Week 1 wakeup call against Jacksonville, and they've looked like the playoff contender expected of them on both sides of the ball. Maybe Nick Foles gives the Bears some juice, but I still have no problem laying just a field goal with Philip Rivers against him. 

Cardinals -3.5 at Panthers

I'm not going to overreact to Arizona taking their first loss or Carolina getting their first win; the Cardinals are pretty clearly the superior team, especially with Christian McCaffrey still out. The status of DeAndre Hopkins' ankle is worth monitoring, but the offense should have their way with the unimposing Panthers defense. Expect Kenyan Drake to get on track like the all of the previous running backs that have faced them so far.

Bills -3.5 at Raiders

Similarly, I don't expect the banged up Las Vegas defense to offer much resistance in this one. As mad as I was about Buffalo getting bailed out by a phantom pass interference penalty last week to ruin my upset pick, I can't let that affect my objectivity here. They should put up plenty of points, and their defense should bounce back against a Raiders offense lacking in perimeter weapons at the moment. With the corners the Bills have, they can put them on an island and simply load up in the middle to stop Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller.