NFL 2020 Week 3 Picks

Week 2 did end up a bit weird, although it wasn't quite in the way I expected. Every Vegas favorite except the Saints (and Eagles depending on when you checked the line) won their game, but only half of them covered. Just about all of my 50/50 calls went the wrong way, so hopefully I'm due for some positive regression to the mean.

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Jaguars -3.5 versus Dolphins

My first instinct was to take the points in a battle of bad teams, especially being more than a field goal, but I overreacted to getting lucky last week with a backdoor cover for the road team. Since I typically like the home teams on the short week, I stuck with that even though I liked a lot of the matchups for Miami players in fantasy like Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker, and Myles Gaskin. That should've been my first hint.

Steelers -3.5 versus Texans

After facing Kansas City and Baltimore, Houston's tough schedule continues, and I'm honestly surprised this line isn't a little higher. Things will open up after this, but Deshaun Watson is going to be under pressure all day against the Steelers' blitz. And aside from Bradley Roby possibly slowing down Diontae Johnson's continued breakout, Houston's defense appears vulnerable again.

#Steelers have 4 players ranked in the top 6 of total pressures generated:

▪️ Bud Dupree - 14 (T-2nd)
▪️ TJ Watt - 13 (3rd)
▪️ Stephon Tuitt - 12 (T-6th)
▪️ Cameron Heyward - 12 (T-6th) pic.twitter.com/xMZogha2k7

— PFF (@PFF) September 25, 2020

Patriots -6.5 versus Raiders

Las Vegas turned things around in a big way on MNF from the 2nd quarter on, but now they're on the road against a much better defensive mastermind. Bill Belichick isn't going to let them rely so heavily on Darren Waller in the passing game, and the New England corners should bounce back against the young receivers. On the other side, Cam Newton has looked great and should threaten the Raiders defense much more consistently than Drew Brees was willing to.

NFL 2020 Week 2 Picks

Week 2 is always my least favorite week to make picks because you can't overreact to a small sample size, and most teams that were at home last week are now on the road and vice versa. I'm trying to focus on how teams performed and not just the results from the opening games, so hopefully that will convey in the picks.

Road Underdogs

Bengals +5.5 at Browns

Sometimes bad beats work in your favor.

Vikings +3.5 at Colts

In a battle between two of the most disappointing teams in Week 1, I'll take the points. I don't think that Philip Rivers can pick apart Minnesota's defense in the way that Aaron Rodgers did, but Kirk Cousins could have success with short passes like Gardner Minshew last week. I am curious to see how much Indy features Jonathan Taylor in the wake of Marlon Mack's unfortunate Achilles tear since Nyheim Hines is unsurprisingly a favorite target of Rivers. Eric Kendricks is one of the game's best coverage linebackers, though, so the Vikings should be in good position to bounce back.

Jaguars +9.5 at Titans

Jacksonville won't be sneaking up on another division rival this time, but they showed that they can at least hang in there to keep this a close game. Although I almost wrote about Corey Davis as this year's DeVante Parker as a former 1st round pick with all of the physical tools who struggled with injuries and offensive situation, I'm not sure Tennessee's passing attack is going to blow away anyone to cover large spreads. A.J. Brown's absence with a bone bruise certainly doesn't help in that regard.

Panthers +9.5 at Buccaneers

While I fully expect Tampa Bay to be the team that gets their first W in this one, this is also too high of a spread for my taste. As I feel like I constantly pointed out last, the Bucs have not been a particularly good home team with last season's 2-6 record following three straight 4-4 performances. Carolina's defense (or lack thereof) is going to cure a lot of team's offensive woes this year, but they showed last week that they can put up points themselves with the Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Brady partnership. 

Giants +5.5 at Bears

Daniel Jones gets no reprieve going from Pittsburgh's defense to Chicago's, but aside from the red zone mistake, he looked comfortable moving the ball in the new offense. After the Bears were a bit lucky to pull out their win after that wild fourth quarter, this should be another close one. Maybe they'll get off to a faster start with Allen Robinson fed early and often after being unhappy with his extension negotiations, but I'd like to see Mitchell Trubisky translate that strong finish to a full game before laying the points.

NFL 2020 Win Totals, Breakout Players, and Week 1 Picks

We made it! After some serious doubt about whether there would be an NFL season in the year of COVID-19, kudos to the players, staff members, and league protocols for their diligence in preventing the spread of the virus. Now we can enjoy can enjoy America's biggest game and everything that comes with it. This post will go over picks for each team's win totals, Week 1 spreads, and breakout fantasy players. You can also check out my new post on The Sports Fan Journal, Ranking the Top-10 Rookie WR Situations.

These are win totals listed on FanDuel Sportsbook, which I hope will one day include California; the expected wins stat is from ProFootballReference.com based on points scored and allowed; and the lines are from my usual picks pool on CBS Sports, where I'm the reigning champ with a 145-111 record. The key to my success was not to overrate homefield advantage: home favorites were just 63-99 against the spread while road favorites went 50-44. That could prove even more true this season with the lack of fans in attendance. 

Chiefs: 12-4, 11.4 expected wins, 5-4 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 11.5 wins

As much as it broke my heart, they were worthy champions and locked up their core in the offseason. This is a high win total, but it feels pretty safe considering that they were 11-3 in Patrick Mahomes' starts. That number is now up to 24-7 in his career plus 4-1 in the postseason, and it would be no surprise to see him pick up his second MVP in three years as the starter. He's the face of the league for a reason.

Breakout player: Clyde Edwards-Helaire

I swear this was already my pick before his impressive debut last night as it's hardly an original idea. Andy Reid offenses are always fantasy friendly for shifty, pass-catching running backs like Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Brian Westbrook, and the fact that CEH is the only one he's ever invested a 1st round pick in tells you everything you need to know, especially with Reid's draft day comparison to Westbrook. On a national champion LSU team, he averaged 1.83 yards per team play with 13.96% of the team's receptions, strong numbers for a prospect.

Andy Reid even gave Jamaal Charles’ #25 to CEH. Destined for fantasy greatness

— David Giovanazzi 😷 (@SF_DavidGio) September 11, 2020

Texans: 10-6, 7.8 expected wins, 8-3 in one-possession games

The pick: OVER 7.5 wins

Although they are due for some regression based on their point differential and luck in close games, Houston still has the best quarterback in the division, and Bill O'Brien has won 9 or more games in five out of six years there. Yes, they didn't get enough for DeAndre Hopkins after not wanting to give him the extension he ended up getting in Arizona, but there are still plenty of pieces to work with from last year's team that had a 24-0 lead on Kansas City in the Divisional Round. Returning to the playoffs may be out of reach this year, but .500 is attainable.

Breakout player: Will Fuller

Another one from before last night that got off to a good start. He's coming into the season having only made it through 21 healthy games (including the playoffs) with Deshaun Watson over three season due to injuries for both, but they have shown a brilliant connection. Fuller averages 6.81 targets, 4.57 catches, 72.57 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns in those contests, and over 16 games, that's a 109-73-1,161-11 stat line. With Hopkins gone, his 20.85% target share has plenty of room for improvement, so hopefully his reportedly added muscle helps him stay healthy.

Week 1 line: Chiefs -9.5 versus Texans

It's always nice to start the season off on the right foot.