My excitement/relief about today's arrival is probably nothing compared to all of those involved after so much scrutiny they've gone through, and this time of year there's so much misinformation out there. The fact that there are so many conflicting reports out there about what Cleveland is going to do at #1 is amazing, especially with reports that GM John Dorsey has kept Mr. 1-31 aka coach Hue Jackson out of the loop until just recently. It's hilarious that so many reporters suddenly feel most certain about Baker Mayfield being the guy. You know, right around the time that Jackson was told the pick...
4:53 PM PST: Since they have their choice of players at the top, it may seem silly to have "smokescreens" out there about who they'll take, but I think it makes some sense to keep people guessing and create chaos around trade talks for other teams since they're picking again at #4. I hope that Dorsey just told Jackson that Mayfield is the guy just to throw off the scent because he knows how close he is to the media, but IF the former Sooner does end up going #1, that would certainly change up how I see the top of the draft going. Sam Darnold appears to be the only one the Giants appear to be set on ahead of Saquon Barkley, and with the Jets likely to take the next best quarterback, Josh Rosen, that could suddenly create a ton of demand for #4. That could be where Buffalo or Arizona trades up to, but I'll stick with Bradley Chubb to Cleveland for now. Then the Broncos, Colts, or Buccaneers could suddenly be gifted Barkley to fill their running back hole, or they could make that trade down, with Denver potentially taking Josh Allen themselves.
4:58: Almost showtime! Call me crazy, but I still believe it'll be Darnold until I see definitely otherwise. One last what-if thought exercise, though:
1. Mayfield
2. Darnold
3. Rosen
4. Chubb
5. Barkley
6. Allen (Buffalo trade)
7. Derwin James (it's a real coin flip after I had Minkah Fitzpatrick here in my mock)
8. Quenton Nelson
9. Fitzpatrick
10. Roquan Smith (though he could go 6 if Indy isn't who makes the trade)
5:05: Bringing out Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman, and Jason Witten with him didn't stop Roger Goodell from getting booed!
5:14: They're really using up the whole 10 minutes even though they've been on the clock since the season ended...But Mayfield is on the phone apparently! Looks like he really is getting the draft call.
5:17: And it's official: The reigning Heisman winner who was originally a walk on at Texas Tech is the #1 overall pick. I really didn't expect that since Dorsey is known as a "measurables guy" and Mayfield only came in at 6’0⅝”, 215 lbs at the combine (6’0⅜”, 216 lbs at the Senior Bowl, oddly), but apparently Scott McCloughlan really has his ear.
5:20: Troy Aikman is the first to bring up the Johnny Manziel comparison! I've had that sort of feeling for a while, and it'll only grow stronger now that Mayfield is also a Brown. He has kind of won me over, but I still have Darnold and Rosen as better prospects. For what it's worth, the Pro Football Focus has had Mayfield as the top guy going back to October.
5:22: The Giants stuck with Barkley after all. I can understand it more than most running backs thanks to his impact in the passing game, but man, when will they have the opportunity to draft a franchise quarterback again? Eli Manning is 37.
5:28: Jets pick up Darnold and probably rejoice. Rich Eisen points out that he's only 20 years old (turning 21 in six weeks), and that two year edge on Mayfield shouldn't go unnoticed. Being so young when drafted is yet another similarity he has to Jameis Winston, who was also better as a redshirt freshman than in his draft season. They're also similar in size, play more athletically than they tested, have slightly funky deliveries, and can be turnover prone. That wouldn't be too shabby compared to how the last USC quarterback the Jets took ended up turning out, even if they did overpay to move up to this spot weeks ago.
5:36: Another Cleveland stunner: Denzel Ward at #4! I can't knock it since I view him as the best pure outside corner in the draft, but I didn't think they'd prioritize the position since they added E.J. Gaines, T.J. Carrie, and Terrance Mitchell as veterans already. Seems like they tried trading down but were asking for too much and just took their guy higher than expected. With Denver supposedly smitten with him, ideally after a trade down, they must be a bit disappointed.
5:43: I remember Peter King mentioned that Denver loved Bradley Chubb but never thought he'd be there at #5. I'm not sure how great he'll transition to a 3-4 defense, but that might not matter since nickel defense is basically the new base. They'll probably still look for that third corner as Aqib Talib's replacement in the next round or two. My question is if this means they might shop Shane Ray or Shaq Barrett, who just recently signed his 2nd round restricted free agency tender.
5:47: Thank you Indy for not waiting the whole time to pick Quenton Nelson. He could end up being the best player in this draft even if he's "just a guard," and as both the NFL Network and ESPN broadcasts keep saying, this could finally solve their offensive line issues to keep Andrew Luck healthy. Still, I'm a little surprised one of the teams in need of a quarterback hasn't moved up yet for one of the Joshes.
5:51: And right after I press update on here, RapSheet reports that the Bills have made their move! Although the Jets set the market high, trading picks 12, 53 and 56 to move up five spots (and add #255) feels like a bit of an overpay, and the fact that it's for Allen over Rosen makes it even worse to me. Mike Mayock notes that he needs to work on his anticipation, timing, and accuracy. Those are kind of a big deal. But hey, at least got another call right in my mock draft with them moving up for him!
6:01: Bears end up taking Roquan, and like Ward, I can't knock it even if I'm surprised based on roster fit. He probably knocks Nick Kwiatkoski, who came on strong down the stretch last year, to the bench and plays with Danny Trevathan at inside linebacker. He could be the next great Bears linebacker.
6:05: I'm floored that the 49ers take Mike McGlinchey at #9 considering all the options on the board, including trading down. I was hoping for Fitzpatrick as an impact defensive back or Harold Landry as the edge rusher they need, but instead they take a replacement for Trent Brown, who is entering the last year of his rookie contract, that can eventually succeed Joe Staley, whom they just gave a raise to help stave off retirement soon. Although I think McGlinchey will be a real good player and upgrade in the running game, this just doesn't feel like great value. If they end up trading Brown and getting a decent return, then the math changes a bit, but he was already a solid starter, even if not a great scheme fit.
6:10: Arizona makes the trade I projected them to do with San Francisco in my mock draft, trading #79 and #152 to move up five spots. Maybe they just didn't want to make a trade within the division.
6:13: Rosen is officially the pick, and he could be the steal of the draft this late. What a move for the Cardinals.
6:18: And there goes Fitzpatrick. Both ESPN and NFL Network list him as a safety, but as I described in the Niners' needs pieced, he's mostly a slot corner who has played all over since becoming a starter on two Alabama championship teams as a true freshman. That can help the corner issues I addressed in the mock draft, or they can move T.J. McDonald to weakside linebacker.
6:24: I was positive that Tampa's pick would be Derwin James, but another stunner! Nose tackle Vita Vea is surprising since they added a ton of veterans on the defensive line already. He is a monster who I projected to go 13, but there is a concern he's only a two down player. They had a chance to get the guy so many linked to them at #7 even after trading down but alas.
6:31: James' slide continues, but I'm not as surprised since Mayock mentioned Da'Ron Payne as the other option here right before the pick, I had Washington taking a nose tackle, and there were late reports that they preferred Payne to Vea anyway.
6:33: Saints have traded up to #14! This is a not a drill, people. This is a 13 spot jump at the cost of #147 in the 5th and next year's 1st, and it's surely for Lamar Jackson as the quarterback of the future that I had going to them (albeit at #27 but still).
6:40: Holy crap, they gave up that bounty of picks for Marcus Davenport. His upside is through the roof, but that is the kind of trade package that you'd expect for quarterbacks, not projects from UTSA. This draft is certainly living up to expectations as crazy.
6:45: Oakland continues the run of surprises with Kolton Miller as James keeps falling. When they were linked to McGlinchey, I thought that would make a ton of sense for them, especially if they moved down like they ended up doing. Miller is much more of a project, however, so I'm not sure if he'll be ready to be the right tackle from Day 1 before taking over for Donald Penn, aka the McGlinchey plan. This could also validate SF making their pick where they did rather than trading down, as well. At least the Raiders picked up extra picks while still getting a guy they liked.
6:47: Bills are moving up! They're trading #22 and #65 for #16 and #154 for what I'm expecting to be Tremaine Edmunds, who is also a surprising faller.
6:50: Yup, Buffalo fills their need at inside linebacker with another high upside prospect. He only turns 20 years old next week and has incredible athleticism for his size, so there's a clear theme with their aggressiveness tonight.
6:57: FINALLY, Derwin gets selected. He's an athletic freak and unlike some of these other prospects, he has incredible production to back it up. PFF graded him as the best safety in the country in both his true freshman and junior years, and considering that he missed nearly his whole sophomore year, that's pretty damn good. Chargers got a steal at a position of need.
7:00: My biggest regret from my mock draft is not having Seattle move back since they lack draft capital and have a tendency to do so anyway. Looks like Green Bay is moving back up for someone, hmmm.
7:03: Jaire Alexander it is. So they end up taking a corner like I projected, just not Josh Jackson like I expected. Trading picks 27, 76, and 186 for 18 and 248 isn't bad business after they swindled New Orleans.
7:10: The clock is still running even though Jerry Jones has had this annoying smile on his face this whole time as they milk the Arlington crowd. Get it over with already!
7:12: Woah, the Steelers announced that Martavis Bryant is being traded to Oakland for the 75th overall pick. I saw rumors of Pittsburgh considering a deal, and this is a nice pickup considering Bryant is in the last year of his rookie contract and was originally a 4th round pick. The Raiders did pick up an extra 3rd in their move back, though, and having Bryant with Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson is a dangerous receiving trio.
7:14: No surprise that the Cowboys pick is Leighton Vander Esch. Guess I should've followed my instinct when I wrote in my mock draft that Courtland Sutton seemed too obvious as a local replacement for Dez Bryant. LVE is a nice replacement for Anthony Hitchens next to Sean Lee and Jayon Smith.
7:20: Lions swoop on Frank Ragnow one pick ahead of the Bengals, where a lot of mocks recently placed him. Although I thought new head coach Matt Patricia might take a defender like Landry, improving the interior of their offensive line could be an underrated move.
7:26: Shoot, Cincy takes the other top center, Billy Price, that I originally had them going with before submitting my final mock draft last week. Totally understand them addressing that position.
7:28: Now it's Tennessee's turn to join the trading up fun. So much for rumors of them moving back! Field Yates reports it's picks 22 and 215 for 25 and 125, so it's not a bad price at all.
7:31: It's for Rashaan Evans, and that makes sense to jump ahead of Alabama's graduate school -- I mean New England. I had the Titans taking Vander Esch, so with him gone, they went out and got the next best inside linebacker. I like it.
7:38: Patriots take an offensive tackle like I projected, or at least they announced Isaiah Wynn as a tackle. I like that they'll try him there after his terrific track record despite most pundits considering him a guard due to his lack of length. The value of a starting left tackle is worth trying it at least.
7:45: Chalk up a W for my mock draft! With all receivers available, Carolina takes D.J. Moore, whom Norv Turner seemed smitten with at his pro day. I had him ever so slightly behind Calvin Ridley and Sutton but can absolutely understand him as WR1 with his statistical and athletic profile.
7:54: As I mentioned in the intro to my mock, a late signing can change things, and I wouldn't have gone with Ridley to them had the Willie Snead signing occurred earlier since they already added Michael Crabtree and John Brown. Instead they take Hayden Hurst as a tight end upgrade, and although turning 25 already in August may limit his upside, it also means he can likely fill a need right away.
7:58: And there goes Ridley one pick afterwards. To bring up my mock draft one more time (spoiler: it'll probably be more than one more time), I did mention him to Atlanta as a dark horse if he fell. I love him joining fellow 'Bama receiver Julio Jones with Mo Sanu in the slot since becoming a true #1 receiver might have been asking too much of him. He can be a huge upgrade on the Taylor Gabriel role.
8:06: Rashaad Penny going at #27 might have gotten the most audible reaction from me tonight. I obviously am a fan of his as a prospect, but I'm not sure whether this validates me calling him my top sleeper or makes that post irrelevant. I guess they couldn't find a deal they liked that would've kept them in range for him since they lacked 2nd and 3rd rounders coming into tonight and only received #76 in their initial move down. Still, it is a shock considering all the 'backs besides Barkley are available.
8:12: Man, seeing Ryan Shazier walking is so powerful. It almost makes evaluating the pick irrelevant. However, since that's the point of this post, I have to say taking Terrell Edmunds feels like even more of a reach than the last pick. It just seems like I always disagree with Pittsburgh's defensive back evaluations, but hey, at least it's cool he's a first rounder the same year as his brother! That has to be pretty rare.
8:18: That sound you just heard was probably all Jacksonville fans sighing that they didn't take Lamar Jackson as Blake Bortles' replacement. Taven Bryan is a talented defensive lineman, though, and although he's a bit raw, they don't have to rush him with their stacked line. With big money already committed to Malik Jackson and Calais Campbell ahead of Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler needing new deals, Bryan is probably viewed as a cheap replacement for one of them.
8:23: On the one hand, I didn't think Minnesota needed a corner, but on the other, you can never have enough in this passing league. Mike Hughes is viewed by some as being on the same level as Ward in this class, and while I wouldn't go that far, this is solid value for him.
8:25: I see now that Tom Pelissero is reporting that Landry might have been flagged for his medicals, and that could perhaps explain his fall. I thought he would have been a fine pick at #9, so he could end up being a steal for some team.
8:30: Another pick that's a bit out of left field for New England: Sony Michel. I never would have imagined that they'd value a running back in the first round, especially since they have a stable of useful options on the roster already. That being said, I love the fit since he's a capable receiver and can potentially be an even more dynamic two-way threat than they had with Dion Lewis. Well, as much as someone who has Rex Burkhead cheaply in a keeper league could love this addition. I'm still surprised they didn't add a defender or successor for Tom Brady, though.
8:34: The other team I wish I had trading down was Philadelphia since they also lack 2nd and 3rd rounders like Seattle, but what they ended up receiving in this move down was interesting. Yates has them also sending out #132 and only receiving #52 and #125 this year but with a 2nd round pick next year. That's quite a reasonable price for Baltimore to move up 20 spots and take their quarterback of the future in Jackson, especially since being the last pick of the 1st round still allows them to have a 5th year option in his contract. It's funny since there were quite a few mocks with them taking him all the way up at #16, and they threw people off the scent by trading back twice and still not taking him. That 4th rounder they're sending out was one of the extra selections they picked up, as well, so I really like this move for them. It's conceivable that Jackson ends up being the best quarterback in this class; he's that talented.
8:45: With that, this year's opening round comes to and end. My head is still spinning a bit since the only thing that went as expected is that we should have been ready for the unexpected. Landry, Josh Jackson, Connor Williams, Maurice Hurst, James Daniels, Sutton, Derrius Guice, Christian Kirk, and Isaiah Oliver are the best remaining players in my eyes and should be tremendous values tomorrow.
9:17: Last remaining thoughts as I take a look over everything again:
- The Packers got more value in their trade down than the moves involving QBs. In the aggregate, moving down four spots and losing a 3rd (#76) for a 5th (#147) and future 1st is tremendous.
- To that point, I thought the Cardinals did a great job staying patient and ending up with my second rated passer at a more than fair price. There's also some irony to Rosen going to the team that signed Sam Bradford since that's who he's been compared to due to their similar size, arm talent, and durability concerns.
- After showing interest in Colin Kaepernick last year, the Ravens signed Robert Griffin III and drafted Lamar Jackson this offseason, so they're clearly looking to go in a new direction on offense. If they cut Joe Flacco, who is currently 33 years old, next year, they could save $10.5 million against the cap and his entire $18.5 million salary in actual cash according to OverTheCap.com.
- NFL teams like the offensive lineman in this draft more than expected as defenders fell, but there were still only two wide receivers and one tight end drafted tonight. Clear weaknesses in the top tier for those positions.
- In the end, 13 times teams drafted the same position that I had them taking in my mock draft (counting Fitzpatrick as a corner) with some other near misses, and it's a humbling reminder that this whole thing is an inexact science. And I love it. Until tomorrow!
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