Title Favorites
Those most likely to hold up the Larry O'Brien trophy in June
1. Golden State Warriors (1st in the West) 44-14 (29 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +8.1 (3rd), Offense: 113.7 (1st), Defense: 103.7 (5th)
Kevin Durant's first 50 point game as a Warrior wasn't enough after a couple of close plays at the end of their last game, so they didn't become the first team to have the best record at the All-Star Break for four straight seasons. They also have a lower point differential than we're used to, but who are we kidding? This team is still the heavy favorite to win it all, and their net rating better reflects that, sitting at +10.0 per 100 possessions to lead the league. Injuries to youngsters Pat McCaw and possibly Jordan Bell will lead to further lineup experimentation ahead of the playoffs, and I wonder if staggering Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry will return, at least to a certain extent (something like Durant playing the first nine minutes of the 1st and last nine of the 2nd while Curry sticks with his usual 12 and six minute stints per half) to almost always have an MVP to lean on offensively. The usual unit to start the 2nd and 4th quarters (Shaun Livingston, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Draymond Green, and David West) has a +25.5 net rating rating across 116 minutes, but that's thanks to an incredible 77.5 defensive that might not be sustainable enough to continue overcoming a paltry 103.0 offensive rating that would rank 26th in the league.
2. Houston Rockets (2nd in the West) 44-13 (29 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: + 8.7 (1st), Offense: 113.2 (2nd), Defense: 104.6 (9th)
The sample size of them being 28-1 when Chris Paul, James Harden, and Clint Capela are healthy is getting to be hard to ignore. The surrounding cast has been shifting, and Ryan Anderson coming off the bench since coming back from injury is an interesting wrinkle that not only puts better defenders on the floor but also surprises teams with Harden guarding bigs at times. Buyout additions Joe Johnson and Brandan Wright provide experienced depth, but they had to let go of wing prospect Troy Williams and are now without much point guard depth if Paul or Harden get banged up. A couple big buckets by either of those veterans in the playoffs would make it all worth it, of course.
Beasts of the East
The favorites to be representing the conference in the Finals
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (1st in the East) 34-22 (27 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +0.2 (T-15th), Offense: 110.1 (5th), Defense: 109.8 (28th)
The most difficult team to rank since the performance to date obviously hasn't been impressive, especially since they've won six more games than expected based on point differential per CleaningTheGlass.com, but they completely revamped their team at the trade deadline and of course have LeBron James, who has represented his conference in seven straight Finals and seems rejuvenated by the recent moves. Much like the Warriors being the overall favorites, this is the team to beat in the East until proven otherwise. For what it's worth, they won in Boston and Oklahoma City by a combined 30 points with the new additions in the lineups.
4. Toronto Raptors (2nd in the East) 41-16 (28 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +8.5 (2nd), Offense: 110.7 (4th), Defense: 102.6 (T-3rd)
I really wanted to put them as the Eastern favorites, but they've let me down too many times in the playoffs. Reasons for encouragement include better ball movement on offense, DeMar DeRozan already setting a career high in 3's made as a result, and a 34-11 record since rookie OG Anunoby joined the starting lineup. That last point has led to that unit having a +12.0 net rating in 619 minutes and their eventual second unit of Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright, C.J. Miles, Pascal Siakam, and Jakob Poeltl now getting up to a ridiculous +31.1 in 172 minutes, their second most used lineup. With no back to backs, benches don't play as much in the playoffs, though, so it's unclear how much of an advantage this will be when it counts.
5. Boston Celtics (3rd in the East) 40-19 (32 H, 27 R)
Point Differential: +3.5 (4th), Offense: 104.4 (21st), Defense: 100.9 (1st)
You may have heard about the offensive collapse since the calendar turned to 2018, and although that is an arbitrary cutoff point, being just 10-9 with the 28th ranked offense at 101.9 during that time is concerning, especially since they only have nine home games the rest of the way. Somewhat surprisingly, playing center Aron Baynes alongside the main four starters of Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford in a more traditional lineup has produced better offensive ratings in addition to stronger defense than going smaller with Marcus Morris next to that group, both before and after the New Year. Overall, the lineup with Baynes has a +13.5 net rating compared to having Horford at center next to Morris for a -10.4 net rating, largely due to the latter lineup having a terrible 75% defensive rebound rate, as expected. The looming question over all of these lineup decisions, though, is if/when Gordon Hayward can return to the rotation in some capacity after that gruesome injury in the opening minutes of the season.
How the West Will Be Won
The biggest threats to the favorites
6. Oklahoma City Thunder (3rd in the West) 33-26 (30 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: +3.4 (5th), Offense: 107.2 (10th), Defense: 104.0 (7th)
Andre Roberson may catch a lot of flak for his dismal offense, but since the ace wing defender ruptured his patellar tendon on January 27th, the team is just 4-6 with a -0.5 point differential due to their defensive rating jumping from 103.1 to 108.6. Their ceiling is still there with top-end talent in Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams, and Carmelo Anthony, but there's clearly less margin for error on the defensive end now.
7. San Antonio Spurs (4th in the West) 35-24 (28 H, 31 R)
Point Differential: +3.1 (6th), Offense: 105.1 (16th), Defense: 101.9 (2nd)
I wasn't quite sure whether to drop them after the news of Kawhi Leonard possibly not returning this season came out, but their resume would seem to indicate that Gregg Popovich's infrastructure can overcome anything. Despite the two-time DPOY missing all but nine games this season and facing more games on the road than at home, the defense is still dominant enough to result in the 6th best record and point differential. They need second year point guard Dejounte Murray, whose rise to starter status was handled remarkably well, to run the offense more smoothly since their rating drops down from 106.0 to 103.6 when he's on the court, but he just brings so much on defense with his length that the difference there (96.9/105.2 on/off splits) seemingly makes the trade off worth it.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (5th in the West) 36-25 (31 H, 30 R)
Point Differential: +2.9 (7th), Offense: 111.3 (3rd), Defense: 108.3 (26th)
The defense still is still surprisingly inconsistent for a Tom Thibodeau team with this much talent, but the fact that they've already won more games than all of last season is already an achievement. Something of note is that although they've gone only 6-4 with Tyus Jones filling in at point guard when Jeff Teague has been hurt, the lineups with Jones next to the other four starters has a +24.3 net rating over 259 minutes compared to +8.2 with Teague in 1,067 minutes. That's likely due to a 12.9% turnover rate improving to 9.5% with the younger option in there, but it could be something to watch moving forward as Jones is eligible for an extension this summer after Teague was just signed to a three year pact last summer.
As noted by @Lockedonsports and @DannyLeroux last night, the Timberwolves have struggled defensively of late, with a 116 defensive rating of their past 10 games. Here's their up-and-down journey in 10-game rolling intervals alongside the other teams: pic.twitter.com/g7XPG4cwf2— Positive Residual (@presidual) February 10, 2018
Could Make The East Interesting
It wouldn't be surprising to see these teams pull off an upset or two9. Washington Wizards (4th in the East) 33-24 (27 H, 30 R)
Point Differential: +1.9 (9th), Offense: 107.1 (T-11th), Defense: 105.3 (12th)
Initially going 5-0 after John Wall underwent knee surgery was an interesting storyline, but I wouldn't make too much of it since they proceeded to lose their next two in this small sample size. The positive takeaway could be that they learn to have better ball movement with less reliance on a star to create offense, something Scott Brooks teams have never been great at. They'll need the star point guard back to make any noise in the playoffs, of course (they still have a -0.4 net rating with him off the court compared to +4.3 when he plays), and having a home-heavy schedule down the stretch should help them stay afloat for seeding purposes.
10. Philadelphia 76ers (5th in the East) 30-25 (28 H, 27 R)
Point Differential: +2.0 (8th), Offense: 105.4 (T-14th), Defense: 102.6 (T-3rd)
It's hard to get a full overview of this team since they are (rightfully) so careful with Joel Embiid's workload, but the big number is that they are 27-17 when he plays. Going further, they have a +10.5 net rating when he's on the court compared to -5.2 otherwise, and when he and the other four main starters (Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick, Robert Covington, and Dario Saric) are all available to play together, that unit has a +19.5 net rating in 392 minutes. Adding Marco Belinelli after his buyout with the Hawks should help stabilize bench units that lack a consistent shooter given the strange, prolonged absence of #1 pick Markelle Fultz, so they shouldn't be an easy out in the postseason.
11. Milwaukee Bucks (6th in the East) 32-25 (29 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: 0.0 (17th), Offense: 107.3 (9th), Defense: 106.0 (T-15th)
I almost didn't include them in this tier, but they've gone 9-3 since Joe Prunty took over for Jason Kidd with a 100.4 defensive rating over that span compared to 107.5 beforehand. They could very well have the best player in any playoff series in Giannis Antetokounmpo and can put all kinds of lineups around him with the versatility of Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, and Jabari Parker. However, much like when Parker tore his ACL right before Middleton returned from his torn hamstring last year, Brogdon tore a quad the game before Parker made his debut, costing them valuable time to work out rotations before the playoffs.
The Rest of the West
The playoff seeding can flip in a hurry with all of these teams so close
12. Utah Jazz (6th in the West) 30-28 (27 H, 31 R)
Point Differential: +1.8 (10th), Offense: 106.0 (13th), Defense: 103.9 (6th)
Well, an 11 game win streak can certainly change the way a team is viewed, especially when they sat with just 104.4 and 105.5 offensive and defensive ratings before it started. During this run, those have been boosted to 112.3 and 97.7, respectively, which would rank 3rd and 1st in the league over the course of the year. Some of that started with unsustainable shooting by Ricky Rubio (53% from the field, 54.2% on 3's), but even as rookie wing Royce O'Neale filled in for him in the lineup the last three games with possible ROY Donovan Mitchell being the full time point guard, they've found success to the tune of a +19.3 net rating in 50 minutes of that starting lineup. With Rudy Gobert now fully healthy next to Derrick Favors up front, the defense is for real, and deadline addition Jae Crowder looks comfortable again as a combo forward in a motion offense like in Boston compared to Cleveland. Having only 10 road games the rest of the way should help, but if Mitchell can keep the offense anywhere close to the top-10 with some help from Joe Ingles, whose 3-point shooting has gone from a great 42.8% to an incendiary 54.2% during the streak, then this team could bump up a tier.
13. Portland Trail Blazers (7th in the West) 32-26 (28 H, 30 R)
Point Differential: +1.1 (12th), Offense: 105.4 (T-14th), Defense: 105.0 (T-10th)
They may be two games ahead of Utah in the standings, but per Cleaning the Glass, they've exceeded expectations by a couple of wins so far, which makes sense considering how their offensive and defensive ratings compare. It appears that the defensive improvement that occurred once Jusuf Nurkic was acquired last years was no fluke, but the offense hasn't run as smoothly despite a huge bounce back in shooting from Al-Farouq Aminu. The front court pairing of contract year Ed Davis and rookie Zach Collins has perked up bench units, so they might just need to figure out a perimeter player rotation that can keep the offense from dragging whenever Damian Lillard (107.5/101.1 on/off splits) is on the bench.
14. Denver Nuggets (8th in the West) 32-26 (30 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: +1.0 (13th), Offense: 108.2 (7th), Defense: 107.8 (22nd)
There are just so many fun pieces on offense with this team that you just hope they can get the defense to a respectable level, and when big free agent addition Paul Millsap was in the lineup before injuring his left wrist just 16 games in, they seemed to have something. The presumed starting lineup of him, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, and Nikola Jokic has a +12.0 net rating (112.5/100.5) in 224 minutes, so it will be interesting to see whether the smaller but more talented Will Barton plays over Chandler at small forward when all options are available since that combination has only played 12 minutes together. The unit they've leaned on in Millsap's absence with both Barton and Chandler at forward has also played 224 minutes and juices up the offensive rating to 120.8, but it allows 115.1 on the other end. Shoring up the defense will be key to improving on their putrid 9-19 road record.
15. Los Angeles Clippers (9th in the West) 30-26 (28 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: +0.9 (14th), Offense: 107.1 (T-11th), Defense: 106.0 (T-15th)
Speaking of Chandler on the Nuggets, I've been wondering if the Clips' best case scenario after trading Blake Griffin but holding onto DeAndre Jordan is something like those post-Carmelo Denver teams. They even have the other forward traded with Chandler, Danilo Gallinari! With a 5-2 record and +3.9 point differential since the roster shakeup, it's obviously still in the realm of possibilities that they make a playoff push. Starting two pesky combo guards, Austin Rivers and Avery Bradley, and two combo forwards with range, Gallinari and Tobias Harris, around Jordan has worked so far to the tune of a +13.7 net rating and 3-1 record, all on the road. That's obviously a small sample size with just 62 minutes played, but if they can stay within range of the smothering 90.3 defensive rating that lineup has, maybe they jump up a few spots.
16. New Orleans Pelicans (10th in the West) 31-26 (27 H, 30 R)
Point Differential: +0.2 (T-15th), Offense: 107.7 (8th), Defense: 106.7 (19th)
They are 4-5 with a -1.3 point differential overall since DeMarcus Cousins ruptured his Achilles tendon, but they did win three straight before the Break to possibly show some signs of life as they work out the new rotations with him and Dante Cunningham out and Nikola Mirotic in. Rajon Rondo still plays too much considering he has the worst net rating by far of any of their players getting major minutes at -4.9, so I wish that Darius Miller (+3.7) would take some of his minutes to provide more size, shooting, and defense on the perimeter.
The Other Eastern Contenders
Flawed, but playoff worthy teams
17. Indiana Pacers (7th in the East) 33-25 (31 H, 27 R)
Point Differential: +1.3 (11th), Offense: 108.4 (6th), Defense: 106.4 (17th)
This team should probably be higher up based on their resume thus far, but I'm still dubious that they'll keep this up to this degree. Being 6-1 in games decided by three points or less is a bit on the lucky side, and the fact that they've had a home-heavy schedule means that they have one of the most difficult remaining schedules. Although he's likely banned from Wakanda for not finishing the assist from Chadwick Boseman, Victor Oladipo has obviously been a revelation back in the state where he was a college star to make his first All-Star team, but Domantis Sabonis, the other piece of the PG13 trade, has also been impressive away from the limited role he had in OKC as a rookie. Besides averaging 12.1, 8.2, and 2.2 in 25.3 minutes a game, he filled in remarkably well for starting center Myles Turner over 19 games. Sabonis actually has produced a better lineup with the other main starters (Darren Collison, Oladipo, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Thaddeus Young) at +8.9 in 349 minutes compared to Turner's +0.3 in 498 minutes. What's even more fascinating is that when Cory Joseph is the point guard over Collison, though, the Oladipo, Bogdanovic, Young, and Turner group is +14.6 over 118 minutes, but if you replace Turner with Sabonis in that lineup, they're just +0.3, albeit in just 63 minutes. I'm curious to see if this trend will continue or if they start to pair Joseph/Turner and Collison/Sabonis more.
5 toughest remaining schedules:— Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) February 22, 2018
1. #Spurs
2. #Suns
3. #Wizards
4. #Hawks
5. #Pacers
5 easiest:
1. #Sixers
2. #Warriors
3. #Hornets
4. #Heat
5. #Grizzlies
18. Miami Heat (8th in the East) 30-28 (26 H, 32 R)
Point Differential: -0.9 (20th), Offense: 103.1 (T-24th), Defense: 104.4 (8th)A 1-6 February has put their playoff chances in a more precarious place than when they had a 18-8 stretch between December 9th and January 29th, but they have the opposite situation of what Indiana's facing with an easier schedule down the stretch that features just nine more road games. In the three games he's played so far, the Dwyane Wade addition has done the opposite of boosting the offense, but with more time to integrate him, I'm sure Erik Spoelstra put something together in the perimeter rotation. The more low key return of Luke Babbitt could actually have just as big of an impact since they lack shooters in the front court to provide some much needed spacing.
19. Detroit Pistons (9th in the East) 28-29 (31 H, 26 R)
Point Differential: -0.1 (18th), Offense: 104.6 (T-18th), Defense: 105.0 (T-10th)
The good news for the Heat is that they really only have one team to beat for the last playoff spot, and although they made big trade additions, they only have 10 home games remaining. That's especially a problem since they're just 9-17 on the road so far, and although they're 5-3 with a +1.3 point differential since Griffin joined the lineup, they were at home for all but one of those, which they lost. Reggie Bullock shooting 53%/49%/80% in the 30 games since becoming a regular starter on December 12th is a pleasant surprise but also unlikely to be sustained to that extent. Perhaps getting Reggie Jackson back at point guard will help keep the offense at the level its been performing at, but I think they end up the odd man out.
May the Odds Be Ever In Your Favor
The lottery positioning could come down to the last day in this last year under the current system
20. Charlotte Hornets (10th in the East) 24-33 (30 H, 27 R)
Point Differential: -0.6 (19th), Offense: 104.9 (17th), Defense: 105.8 (14th)
Although there's the slightest of chances they can make up five games in the loss column, it's much more likely they go in the opposite direction and possibly improve their draft position. Amazingly, eight teams have between 18 and 20 wins, so they could shift lottery spots drastically in the final weeks while teams like the Hornets and Knicks may be too late to the tanking party with three or four wins needed to be made up. Maybe they could have been closer to the 8th seed if they weren't 1-5 in games decided by three points or less, but their 9-18 record on the road is pretty damning, especially since they have more roadies than home games left.
21. Los Angeles Lakers (11th in the West) 23-34 (28 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: -2.9 (23rd), Offense: 102.8 (26th), Defense: 105.6 (13th)
They don't have any reason to tank since they don't control their own draft pick, but continuing to develop their young players is the priority. #2 pick Lonzo Ball helped them to four straight wins early in January before spraining his MCL, and after losing the next two they won eight out of 10 before losing the last three before the Break. Now Ball is set to return, fellow rookie Josh Hart increased his hold on a rotation spot in the interim, and last season's #2 pick Brandon Ingram has taken a huge step forward as both a shooter and facilitator, often acting as the pseudo point guard in Ball's absence. The surprising thing is that during this 12-7 stretch, their most impressive rookie early on, Kyle Kuzma, has been in a bit of a slump with 42%/30.7%/54.8% shooting compared to 46.3%/38.4%/74.1% during his first 37 games. How those four mesh will be something to watch as they try to recruit free agents in the coming summers.
22. New York Knicks (11th in the East) 23-36 (28 H, 31 R)
Point Differential: -2.4 (T-21st), Offense: 103.7 (23rd), Defense: 106.6 (18th)
Another season, another Knicks fade as they started 17-14 after playing 20 of those first 31 games at home before going 6-22 in a stretch that included a brutal 20 road games. That does mean that 13 of their last 23 are at home, where they are 16-12, but with the terrible news that Kristaps Porzingis tore his ACL this month, you can expect them to lose a lot of competitiveness. They are 1-10 in games he doesn't play and are currently on an eight game losing streak that started before he got hurt, so if 35 year old Jarrett Jack continues steal minutes from #8 pick Frank Ntilikina and trade addition Emmanuel Mudiay, something has gone terribly wrong.
23. Dallas Mavericks (12th in the West) 18-40 (30 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: -2.4 (T-21st), Offense: 104.5 (20th), Defense: 107.4 (21st)
Even before they were in the news for the explosive sexual harassment story, Mark Cuban was in trouble for admitting to wanting to lose games and fined $600,000 as a result. Things are obviously not good in Dallas right now, but their brutal 2-7 record in close games belies how capable this team can be at times. Seth Curry missing the whole season has hurt them and his free agent stock, but Dennis Smith Jr. has shown the potential that made him the #9 pick last June. He still needs to reign in his decision making and defensive mistakes, but for now that will continue to help them lose games for lottery purposes. How Nerlens Noel plays into that will be something to watch since he had an astounding -23.2 net rating in the eighteen games before tearing a ligament in his left thumb, torpedoing his free agent value in an incredible way since a year ago.
24. Chicago Bulls (12th in the East) 20-37 (29 H, 28 R)
Point Differential: -5.9 (28th), Offense: 101.8 (28th), Defense: 108.2 (25th)
Most of the remaining teams have similarly bad point differentials and ratings, so future outlook is taken a bit more into account here. Lauri Markkanen has lived up to being the #7 pick to provide a solid building block, Zach LaVine looks no worse for wear coming back from his torn ACL, and Kris Dunn has looked more like the talent that made him the #3 pick in the previous draft than he did in Minnesota, making the Jimmy Butler trade more palatable. The fact that they were 3-20 before Mirotic made his season debut, proceeded to win seven in a row and go 14-11 overall with him in the lineup, and have dropped five of seven since then is pretty tankerific. Now they have New Orleans' top-5 protected pick that currently sits 16th to go along with what should be at least another top-8 pick of their own in a top-heavy draft.
25. Atlanta Hawks (13th in the East) 18-41 (30 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: -4.1 (25th), Offense: 103.9 (22nd), Defense: 108.0 (24th)
#19 pick John Collins is averaging 10.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in just 22.3 minutes (16.4, 11.3, and 1.9 per 36), and besides their own high draft pick that will hopefully produce a star, they will have 1st rounders from the Timberwolves and Rockets to add possible rotation pieces. I'm curious what the value will be of the 2019 Cavs 1st round pick they own since that team is of course at risk of losing the best player in the world, but the pick is top-10 protected.
26. Orlando Magic (14th in the East) 18-39 (27 H, 30 R)
Point Differential: -4.2 (26th), Offense: 104.6 (T-18th), Defense: 108.6 (27th)
Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, and Nikola Vucevic combining for just 88 of a possible 171 games is not ideal since you'd like to see how that front court trio plays together ahead of Gordon's restricted free agency this summer and Vucevic's unrestricted free agency the following year. Although they declined his fourth year option, there is some positive news that Mario Hezonja's splits as a spot starter have improved, and in this recent nine game stint Gordon's missed, he's averaged 16.9 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.7 blocks in just 29.6 minutes as something of an small-ball four. Hopefully he'll maintain this steadier play on the wing with Gordon and Vucevic due to return up front.
27. Memphis Grizzlies (13th in the West) 18-38 (30 H, 26 R)
Point Differential: -3.7 (24th), Offense: 102.7 (27th), Defense: 106.9 (20th)
I honestly can't believe that rather than trade him for future help, they held out on their demands of a 1st round pick for Tyreke Evans, whose return to health and improved shooting has been a great story. Because they signed him to just a one year deal at the Bi-Annual Exception, the highest starting salary they can offer him this summer with Non-Bird rights is $3,948,000. So in order to make a competitive offer, they'll have to use some or all of the Mid-Level Exception...which is the same situation they still would've faced if they sent him to another team for the rest of this season. Although rookie Dillon Brooks has shown that his college production will translate to a role in the league and Andrew Harrison's improved shooting is encouraging, there's not a ton of young talent to provide optimism for when Mike Conley returns next season. That top-8 protected 1st they owe the Celtics next season is looking like a nice pick for Boston.
28. Brooklyn Nets (15th in the East) 19-40 (32 H, 27 R)
Point Differential: -4.3 (27th), Offense: 103.1 (T-24th), Defense: 107.9 (23rd)
The ruptured patellar tendon for Jeremy Lin in the first game of the season was a bad omen, but the 1-11 limp into the Break shows just how much of an injury toll they've suffered. Now it looks like they're in danger of suffering the embarrassment of having yet another high draft pick lost to another team after it seemed like the Cavs had overvalued that asset. On the bright side, Spencer Dinwiddie has developed into a starting-caliber player at 24 years of age, and although his shooting and health have been disappointing, D'Angelo Russell is averaging 23.6, 5.6, and 6.9 per 36 minutes to potentially form an interesting back court with nice size. Their other redemption project from the 2015 draft hasn't gone as well: the team has a -26.2 net rating in the Jahlil Okafor 286 minutes he's played compared to -1.9 in the time he's off the court.
29. Phoenix Suns (14th in the West) 18-41 (30 H, 29 R)
Point Differential: -8.9 (30th), Offense: 101.5 (29th), Defense: 110.6 (30th)
It's kind of amazing that they are 5-2 in close games, but it help explains why their expected win total is 4.3 lower than it actually is, just behind the last team on this list. They've lost by double digits 28 times! There aren't a lot of positives right now other than at least they have Devin Booker, whose usage as a Harden-like guard at age 21 is exciting; Elfrid Payton has looked like a steal through three games so far; and besides their own high pick, the 1st they're owed from Miami is currently up to #15.
30. Sacramento Kings (15th in the West) 18-39 (25 H, 32 R)
Point Differential: -8.0 (29th), Offense: 100.9 (30th), Defense: 109.9 (29th)
The man with the most interesting name in the league, Bogdan Bogdanovic, has looked good but is a 25 year old "rookie" after playing overseas and has stalled Buddy Hield's development to a certain degree. De'Aaron Fox's jumper is seeming to come along, but Justin Jackson hasn't been as ready-made as expected while their third 1st round pick, Harry Giles, is sitting out the season entirely to get healthy. They'll have a good chance at a star in this draft, but they don't reckon to be much better next season when they owe an unprotected pick to either the 76ers or Celtics. Set in Sacramento, Lady Bird won two Golden Globes and is nominated for five Academy Awards...but has a large focus on trying to get out of town. Whoops.
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