Saturday, December 3, 2016

2016 NFL Week 13 Picks

We're hitting the home stretch with this being the last week containing any byes. There were some tough picks to choose from, but these lines stood out.

Packers -6.5 versus Texans

The Green Bay offense has gotten their groove back behind Aaron Rodgers, and I think their banged up defense can do enough at home against Brock Osweiler and this inconsistent Houston offense.
After last year's injury plagued campaign, Davante Adams has really found his stride with Rodgers.

Saints -5.5 versus Lions

Detroit's lack of a running game might mean that they can't fully take advantage of this New Orleans defense to keep up in a likely shootout. Drew Brees is showing no signs of slowing down, and although the Lions have Darius Slay at one corner spot, the rest of the pass defense is likely to struggle covering all of Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, and phenomenal rookie Michael Thomas.

Giants +6 at Steelers

Although I am wary of going against Pittsburgh at home, this line seems too high for such an inconsistent defense. Odell Beckham has been hot after his slow start to the season and has a good chance of trying to match Antonio Brown big play for big play.

Panthers +7 at Seahawks

Ditto, but with the Seattle offense being so inconsistent behind that offensive line. Carolina may not be playing as well as last year, but they can still take it to the Seahawks like in the two big wins they had.
Jonathan Stewart had two touchdowns in both meetings with Seattle last year.
Colts -1.5 at Jets

With Andrew Luck back after a long week, I like Indy's chances of bouncing back from their Thanksgiving loss against the #31 team in Football Outsiders DVOA. New York's lack of outside threats besides veteran Brandon Marshall will make it difficult to attach this Colts secondary.

Last week: 2-2-1
Season total: 36-32-3

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