Saturday, October 22, 2016

2016 NFL Week 7 Picks

I didn't feel great about the games last week and should have went with some of the teams I liked in teasers as my picks like the Patriots and Cardinals. Of course, the Seahawks would have come through on a teaser but failed to cover after a disastrous third quarter following a dominant first half, dropping me perilously close to .500 on the season. Time to change that!

Giants -2.5 "at" Rams (in London)

Odell Beckham Jr. is starting to look like his game breaking self again, and the Giants defense is playing decently enough that I expect them to take care of business on what is essentially a neutral field. In particular, they rank 9th in run defense DVOA on Football Outsiders while the Rams have the 31st best run offense since they can't seem to block for Todd Gurley. Although Case Keenum has been playing over his head, I am not too concerned about him airing it out more than Eli Manning.
This could be a spot for Olivier Vernon to convert his pressures into sacks.
Vikings -2.5 at Eagles

It figures that once I started to come around on Carson Wentz, the Eagles lose back to back games to continue to hurt my picks. I am just going to focus on the fact that the Vikings are undefeated and coming off a bye to prepare for the rookie QB. Hopefully their tackles are a bit more settled into their roles so that Sam Bradford will have some time against this pass rush to continue his sneaky MVP campaign.

Colts +3 at Titans

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that the Colts are underdogs after their defense blew a late lead last week, but I still find it hard to trust this Titans team that let the Browns hang around. I like getting points with Andrew Luck, so even though Tennessee's young tackles are playing like studs for this strong offense, I'm going with the more experienced team.
I was glad Frank Gore was able to get back to a 100 yard game after pulling a Dave Hampton.
Chiefs -6 versus Saints

Although first round defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins returning to practice from IR this week is good news, New Orleans still can't stop anybody, so I'd expect Spencer Ware to run all over them. Even with Jamaal Charles' workload progressing, Ware has still been a workhorse, and if Kansas City can get out to a lead at home, they can limit the amount of possessions for Drew Brees to try to amount a comeback.

Patriots -7 at Steelers

The final score may not have been as indicative of how close the game actually was, but it was impressive how New England put it away against their AFC North opponent last week. Now they get backup quarterback Landry Jones, so I'm going against my recent rule about going against Pittsburgh at home since it was Big Ben who really drove the offensive splits there. With Le'Veon Bell carrying the load. Jones might be able to move the ball more than expected, but the Patriots defense is great at bending without breaking once you get inside the red zone.

It will be interesting to see how much single coverage Malcolm Butler has after his battle with Antonio Brown last year.

Last week: 2-3
Season total: 21-20

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