16. Portland Trail Blazers, 27-27 (27 H/27 A) +0.6. Offense: 7th (104.4)/Defense: 18th (104.3)
- They won 12 of their last 15 heading into the break to get their point differential into the green, arguably warranting a higher spot in these rankings.
- C.J. McCollum has built on his strong finish to last year and provided a lot of value as both the starting shooting guard and backup point guard with Damian Lillard. What that small back court lacks in defense they make up for with dynamic scoring and playmaking, and Allen Crabbe has started to reach his potential as a third guard in a contract year, as well.
- The quick rebuild in the front court has gone well around them with their smart, low-risk acquisitions all paying off. Along with his usual activity, Al-Farouq Aminu is hitting 3's at a career high rate in the first year of a solid contract; Mason Plumlee has started every game like Aminu and contributed positively on both ends, including doubling his assist rate; Ed Davis is finally getting some appreciation for his yeoman's work on the boards and interior scoring; and former top 15 picks Noah Vonleh and Maurice Harkless have shown their talents at times in their roles.
- The calculated risk of the Arron Afflalo rental cost them a talented young wing in Will Barton and potentially a mid-first round pick, somewhat hampering potential trades to try and make a playoff push.
- As fun as the Lillard-McCollum back court is, they'll always be limited defensively, and their young bigs sometimes lack the focus necessary to make up for that.
- They have the most cap room in the league to help facilitate a deadline deal, either to provide an upgrade for themselves or to accumulate assets from desperate teams, and as ESPN's Kevin Pelton has pointed out in his chats, they could actually save money by only paying the prorated amount left on someone's contract instead of owing the difference between their payroll and the salary floor to their current players.
- After a slow start, they bounced back to get up to 5th in the West, thanks in part to taking advantage of an easy schedule to win 11 out of 13 at one point between January and February.
- Jeff Green enjoyed some hot shooting during that stretch, going for 16.4 points in 28.2 minutes on 48.4%/42.9%/82.7%, and they'll more nights like that to help pick up the slack for however long Marc Gasol is out.
- The franchise center broke his foot and could potentially miss the rest of the season. Foot injuries are always a scary concern for big men, and the recently turned 31 year old was already starting to show some decline in the first year of a five year, max contract as his rebounding rate, attempts at the rim, and field goal percentage at the rim are all down.
- Despite some unique protections, they will eventually lose two of their first round picks from past trades and have generally missed in the draft of late.
- I was already writing that with the Gasol injury news, they should consider selling off some of their upcoming free agents, Mike Conley included, for assets to restock the shelves, and it seems they have already started that process before this post went up with their trade of Courtney Lee that netted 4 second round picks. Green and Matt Barnes could be next if they don't see the forwards in their future since they likely won't make much noise in the playoffs.
- They still have a roster full of talent and flexibility, it's just a matter of whether they can put it together, especially on defense, and play like the team that won 56 games and went to last year's Western Conference Finals. They even added talented players like Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell, Ty Lawson and Marcus Thornton, so ideally interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff can find the right combination of lineups to play better.
- Young big man Clint Capella has continued to show the promise he surprised with in last year's playoffs after only playing 90 minutes in the regular season as a rookie, so he should be ready to be a full-time starter if Dwight Howard is traded or leaves in free agency.
- There have been some injuries along with the gamble on Lawson going south, but the regression on defense from last year's 6th place finish is an embarrassment that cost Kevin McHale his coaching job after just a 4-7 start.
- Both of their fourth year power forwards have cloudy futures with the team as they approach restricted free agency this summer. Aside from missing some time, Terrence Jones' play has not been up to par with his shooting, rebounding, and blocks all down, and he has lost his spot to Josh Smith again like last season. Donatas Motiejunas has been limited to just 14 games and shown the effects of the back injury that held him out of the playoffs.
- Howard can opt out of the last year of his contract and try and get one last big payday, so they could move him ahead of time if they fear losing him for nothing or don't want to pay a 30 year old with major recent injury history a max deal. Being in the Luxury Tax and hard-capped limits some of their options in a larger scale deal, though.
19. Orlando Magic, 23-29 (27 H/25 A) -1.4. Offense: 25th (101.0)/Defense: 16th (103.1)
- They have almost too many talented young players on good contracts and a bevy of draft picks, including a future first from the Lakers.
- Out of that group, the continued rise of Evan Fournier has surprised me the most as he has turned himself into a well-rounded player with improved defense in a contract year.
- After following up a 9-6 November with a 10-5 December, they suddenly fell to 2-12 in January and out of the playoff picture, which is not something ownership is happy with after remaining patient the last few years. There has been various lineup tinkering, but some of their core pieces just might not fit well together.
- As I was writing this post, the apparent playoff mandate already forced a shake up with a trade of Tobias Harris after just re-signing him to a solid deal over the summer. I'll have more on that in my trade deadline review, but more moves could be on the way with Channing Frye likely on his way out as they apparently want even more salary flexibility.
- John Wall has continued to solidify himself as an elite point guard, and Bradley Beal has played up to expectations when he's actually been able to stay on the court.
- Keeping their books clean with the hope of Kevin Durant coming home this summer helped them take on a valuable player like Jared Dudley, who's been even better than they could have hoped for, at virtually no cost, and they have a handful of solid players on non-guaranteed contracts to go with all of their own first rounders.
- In their haste to finally embrace 3's and some smallball they forgot that the Nene-Marcin Gortat front court was what made them a top defense in recent seasons, even if they weren't always available. Injuries all over - underrated wing free agent Alan Anderson hasn't even played yet -haven't helped, but they need to get back to their principles in some capacity to even give themselves a shot at competing in most games.
- Unlike most teams that I've pointed this out about, the difference between their home and road performance is that they have no home court advantage, with a 11-16 record compared to 12-11 on the road. Durant coming is likely a pipe dream anyway, but the ridiculous booing of Wall and then KD isn't likely to help their chances.
- That being said, they likely can't make a move that will impact their financial flexibility if there's even the possibility of a free agency splash. They liked Kelly Oubre enough to trade up for him, and the potential he's shown in limited minutes could make Otto Porter available in trades since the former #3 overall pick still hasn't shown much consistency after his strong playoff performance.
- They are 20-24 when DeMarcus Cousins plays, which still isn't good but helps show how much of a difference-maker they have locked up through 2018.
- Rookie Willie Cauley-Stein has played well on both ends, and the superfluous addition of Kosta Koufos, a George Karl favorite, gives them an abundance of riches in the front court, especially with Omri Casspi lighting it up as a stretch 4, as well.
- Rajon Rondo is padding his assist numbers as high as ever but barely tries on defense nowadays, meaning that along with the Marco Belinelli flop, the mismanagement of resources leading to these signings look even worse.
- They're already out two potential first rounders and a pick-swap, so it's scary to think about what else they might do in another desperate attempt to make the playoffs before the opening of their new arena. Caron Butler, Ben McLemore, and even Rudy Gay have been discussed in talks, but it's hard to see what move is out there to help the team both now and down the line.
- The shrewd use of current cap space to renegotiate and extend Danilo Gallinari's contract has been a wise investment as he is back to 100% and playing at a high level. They also got a great contract for Will Barton, who is now a bargain after finally adding some strength and range on his jumper after arriving from Portland in the Arron Afflalo trade.
- Gary Harris has improved by leaps and bounds after I was so disappointed by the young guard's first season, and rookie big man Nikola Jokic has been a revelation since arriving from Europe on a nice four year contract for a second rounder. Jokic is about to turn 21 in a couple of days like Harris and Jusuf Nurkic, while rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is about to turn 20 in a couple of weeks, giving them an obnoxious amount of young talent that will only grow with four potential first round picks this year.
- Things aren't all sunny with some of these prospects, as Mudiay is shooting a horrid 34.0%/27.2%/61.6%, and Nurkic's health has been a question mark all year with just 234 total minutes played.
- Out of those picks they might receive, their ideal scenario besides New York falling below them to swap would likely be for Houston to make the playoffs over Portland since they can still get the Blazers' lottery protected pick next year but not the Rockets'. They could get this year's Memphis pick if it falls in the late lottery, but they might want it to land in next year's potentially stronger draft since it is only top 5 protected then.
- With all of these assets, they have been involved in some of the Blake Griffin rumors with some combination of Gallinari, Barton, Kenneth Faried, and Jokic going to L.A., but I still don't think any potential deal gets done until the summer. The idea is a tantalizing one if they don't have to include Jokic, but I'm not sure if he fits their timeline since he is almost 27 and can opt out of his contract in 2018.
- Where else can you start besides Kristaps Porzingis, whom I defended against New York's callous boos at the draft. The Latvian rookie has become a sensation faster than anyone could've expected and has provided a cornerstone with which to build around if they decide to send the aging Carmelo Anthony to a contender.
- All of their signings have returned value for the most part, including Lance Thomas, who has always been a hardworking defender but is suddenly draining 41.1% of this 3's.
- The Derek Fisher saga is suddenly over, and that abrupt dismissal would almost suggest that the behind the scenes stuff was bigger than it seemed. It's tough to solely base it off of losing 9 out of 10 since 'Melo missed three of them, and it was a difficult part of the schedule for this limited team. He might be a terrible coach, but I'd think you let him ride out the year to try and improve since Kurt Rambis can't be considered an obvious improvement after the job he did in Minnesota.
- It's not like they can try tanking since they don't own their pick this year after the hilarious Andrea Bargnani trade.
- To his credit, Anthony has been a great teammate, not showing any resentment towards the Porzingis frenzy, and he is actually rebounding and assisting at a career high rate. I think he's having fun and likes being in New York, so I don't think he gets dealt with his no-trade clause. However, that could change this summer when he would have more time to get his family settled and would be due a trade bonus since the rising salary cap increases the maximum salary he could make.
24. New Orleans Pelicans, 20-33 (26 H/27 A) -3.0. Offense: T-10th (103.3)/Defense: 27th (106.6)
- Jrue Holiday looks to be fully healthy and is back to playing at a high level next to Anthony Davis.
- They have just been ravished by injuries, but I am still amazed that their defense can be so bad when they have defensive big men like Davis and Omer Asik, who suddenly looks like he might have the worst contract in the league after being overpaid over the summer.
- Ryan Anderson is sure to be among the biggest names on the move since he's set to get a big contract this summer, but I'm curious as to whether Eric Gordon and his large expiring contract will be on the move, as well. Hopefully their moves won't involve losing any first round picks since they have yet to use one since drafting Davis in 2012, which is partly to blame for the lack of young talent around him.
25. Milwaukee Bucks, 22-32 (23 H/31 A) -4.7. Offense: 23rd (101.6)/Defense: 23rd (106.0)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to look like a rising star, and Kris Middleton, John Henson, and even Greg Monroe have lived up to their new contracts for the most part.
- They have a home-heavy schedule the rest of the way, and they are 15-8 in their friendly confines.
- They mismanaged their assets when managing the cap for their signings over the summer, trading a protected Clippers first rounder for Greivis Vasquez in the last year of his deal at $6,600,000 and getting only trade exceptions and heavily protected second rounders for valuable veterans Jared Dudley and Zaza Pachulia.
- Jabari Parker has bounced back from his torn ACL okay enough, but he doesn't seem to mesh well with their other wings, especially since he's shockingly only taken seven 3's this season and 23 in his 73 game career after hitting 38/106 (35.8%) in 35 college games. The team simply needs more spacing than only Middleton can provide, ranking 2nd to last in the league in both makes and attempts. Michael Carter-Williams has improved his shooting to a certain extent, but the drop-off in shooting from Brandon Knight to him has been a stark difference.
- Will they shake things up after this season has gone off the rails without their frantic defense from a season ago sneaking up on teams this year? MCW and Monroe are both only guaranteed to be under contract for next season.and could be moved for better fits, or they could swap out upcoming free agents O.J. Mayo, Vasquez, Jerryd Bayless, Miles Plumlee, or Chris Copeland for some minor help.
- The last two #1 picks, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, are obvious foundation pieces and have generally played like players worthy of being the first players taken in their drafts. Big KAT already looks like a complete player, and although Wiggins' shooting and defensive numbers can be underwhelming, his quick ascension to being go-to scorer is promising.
- Their young supporting cast may have some question marks but all have talent. You could easily see Zach LaVine as a dynamic 6th man, Nemanja Bjelica as a stretch 4, Gorgui Dieng as a third big, and Shabazz Muhammad as a mismatch exploiting wing off the bench. Ricky Rubio might not be able to hit a shot but can definitely get all of these players the ball in the right spot and head a strong defense as a quality point guard who is still just 25.
- After a surprising 8-8 start, they've gone just 9-29, including a 2-14 January.
- With the tragic loss of Flip Saunders, Sam Mitchell has been disastrous as the unexpected head coach. It's nice having veteran leaders like Kevin Garnett, Tayshaun Prince, and Andre Miller to mentor the kids, but his lineup decisions hamper their development. And then there's his old school philosophy leading them to the fewest 3 point makes and attempts and abysmal defense.
- I wouldn't expect them to be too active at the deadline because the mid-tier veteran they could possibly sell for assets, Kevin Martin, has a $7,377,500 player option for next year that will likely scare teams off. The Rubio trade rumors feel unwarranted since he's been mostly healthy this year and is locked up for the next three seasons.
27. Philadelphia 76ers, 8-45 (26 H/27 A) -10.2. Offense: 30th (94.5)/Defense: 19th (104.6)
- They're 7-15 with just a -5.9 point differential since trading for the immortal Ish Smith, who has actually been able to feed their young big men without turning the ball over like crazy.
- Going back to Chandler Parsons in Houston, Sam Hinkie is the master of locking up underrated talents with four year deals that carry almost no risk, so they have some valuable assets like Robert Covington, Jerami Grant, Richaun Holmes, and Hollis Thompson to go along with numerous draft picks and former lottery picks Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, and Jahlil Okafor.
- Despite throwing these past couple of seasons in the tank, they haven't had any luck in the lottery and can't confidently say they've gotten a franchise player given Embiid's scary injury history and the limitations of Noel and Okafor on either end of the floor. The fact that basically all three of them are centers doesn't help things either.
- The immaturity of Okafor off the court with the bar fights and reckless driving hasn't been as much of an issue since the embarassing start to the season, but it painted a bad image on a key piece of this controversial rebuilding process.
- I could go on forever about #TheProcess, but I'll focus on the locker room aspect for now. As much as I like the asset gathering, it's easy to forget the human element of a team sometimes, and even though it's logical to constantly churn the back-end of the roster with the constant 2nd rounders to eventually unearth hidden gems, it doesn't build a positive atmosphere. It was surprising to hear how much they were counting on the veteran presence of Kendall Marshall, whom I'm a huge fan of but is already well traveled in just his fourth season and coming off a torn ACL like the incumbent talented guard, Tony Wroten. After the addition of Jerry Colangelo to help bring an experienced perspective to the front office, the respected Elton Brand was signed essentially as a player-coach, but he took the roster spot of a talented rookie, Christian Wood. It's a tough balancing act.
- Brook Lopez has stayed healthy all year and been his usual efficient self, Thaddeus Young has played well enough in his new deal to be an actual asset, and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has looked as good as expected when he's been able to play.
- They don't have much talent aside from those three players listed above and maybe injured rookie Chris McCullough, and they don't have control of their own draft picks to help add talent no matter how many lottery balls they would have.
- Joe Johnson's gargantuan contract finally coming to an end means they'll have cap space like almost everyone else and that they could potentially pick up assets at the trade deadline if they play their cards right. It would help if they had an actual GM in place, but using that expiring contract to take on some bad money as a sweetener for other teams to give up something of value is a way they could set up for the future. Otherwise, they'll be in the same situation as most teams this summer in a market flooded with money.
- Along with even more future draft picks, the young talent that made this team so exciting a couple of years ago is mostly still there, and they drafted Devin Booker, who has shown off his sweet stroke plenty even as the youngest player in the league.
- They split up the Morris twins in a salary dump to have enough space to sign Tyson Chandler with LaMarcus Aldridge since the center was a preferred partner for the top free agent, but they ended up left at the altar and stuck with $52 million committed to the 33 year old Chandler over four years. This did not go over well with current power forward Markief Morris, and he has been a malcontent the whole season after feeling betrayed by the organization since he took less money in his extension to help get his brother under contract, as well.
- Eric Bledsoe and T.J. Warren are already out for the year, and coach Jeff Hornacek was made to the scapegoat for the team implosion after setting expectations too high with their surprising '13-'14 season.
- It's hard to gauge the trade value of the talented Morris since he's mailed in the season but put his skills on display after Hornacek's firing, averaging 20.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.4 blocks with 4/12 3's made over 5 starts. They also have nice veterans like P.J. Tucker, Mirza Teletovic, and Jon Leuer that could help contenders if the price is right, so I'd expect some kind of action to make the most out of this lost season.
- There's a nice core of first and second year players with D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson, Anthony Brown, and Larry Nance Jr., whom I was down on for being a first rounder but does have some skills, and they made some shrewd signings with veterans Lou Williams and Brandon Bass. They even did well with Brown's contract as a second rounder, as they gave him a few extra bucks upfront to secure a non-guaranteed third year and full Bird rights, as I had hoped, unlike Clarkson's deal that only gives Early Bird rights and restricted free agency a year sooner.
- The fan voting wouldn't indicate it, but Kobe Bryant might be the least valuable player in the league this season, especially with that contract. He's using up 30.9% of their possessions even though he's only shooting 34.9% from the floor and 28.0% on 3's, which are being hoisted up 7.1 times a game. It's like he's single-handedly trying to tank for them to keep their top 3 protected pick.
- He doesn't have to worry, though, because Byron Scott might secure that pick with his coaching alone. The problem is that he's undermining the kids and possibly harming their long term development. They're eventually going to have to give that pick to Philly as it's top 3 protected again next year before becoming unprotected, and then they're going to owe another first rounder to Orlando two years after it's conveyed...which still might be a lottery pick if Scott has his way.
- They might unload Williams and especially Bass to a contender for a 2nd rounder, but it sounds like it's going to be a quiet deadline for them since their contracts are so affordable. The real intrigue will come at the end of the season with tanking position at stake since they're currently in the #2 spot and 3 wins away from both Philly and Phoenix around them. As a reminder, the worst record has a 64.2% chance of a top 3 pick, followed by 55.8% and 42.6%, and you can keep track of all the fun at the lovely Tankathon.com.
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