Wednesday, June 26, 2024

2024 NBA Draft Recap

Happy Draft Day! While I'm constantly updating this tracker for all of the moves being made in the NBA offseason, I wanted to have a separate post just for this event to keep things more organized. In somewhat of a surprise, no players already under contract were traded once things kicked off, so that makes things easier. This will just be a list of what each team did for now since there were a lot of moving around the board. Trade news comes courtesy of tweets from Woj, Shams, and Jake Fischer.

Hawks
#1 Zaccharie Risacher
Traded AJ Griffin for #44...then traded #44 and cash for #43 Nikola Durisic


Wizards
#2 Alexandre Sarr
#14 Carlton "Bub" Carrington
Traded #26 and #51 for #24 Kyshawn George


Rockets
#3 Reed Sheppard
Traded #44 for AJ Griffin


Spurs
#4 Stephon Castle
Traded #8 for a 2031 1st round pick and the right to swap 2030 1st round picks (protected for #1)
Traded #35 for cash and #36 Juan Nunez
#48 Harrison Ingram


Pistons
#5 Ron Holland
Traded #53 for Wendell Moore and #37 Bobi Klintman


Hornets
#6 Tidjane Salaun
#42 KJ Simpson


Trail Blazers
#7 Donovan Clingan
Traded #34 for three 2nd round picks (in 2027, 2029, and 2030)
Traded #40 for #52 and cash...then traded #52 for more cash

7/6 Update: Now that the moratorium is over and the deal is official, the Portland press release is out. Not only was the 52nd pick dealt for just cash as previously reported, but the move down from the 40th pick was also just for financial gain. Alrighty then.

Timberwolves
Traded 2031 1st round pick and a 2030 draft swap (protected for #1) for #8 Rob Dillingham
#27 Terrence Shannon
Traded Wendell Moore and #37 for #53...then traded #53 for #57 and a future 2nd...then traded #57 for cash (per Blake Murphy)

7/6 Update: According to the Minnesota press release reveals that they ended up with a future 2nd round pick and the aforementioned cash considerations as the result of their trade downs.

Wednesday, June 19, 2024

2024 NBA Offseason Tracker

Well that was quick. The new CBA now allows teams to negotiate with their own free agents the day after the Finals ends, and now after seemingly a one day grace period for the Boston Celtics to enjoy their well-deserved championship, we have our first deal! That's created this tracker earlier than usual, which makes things easier in a way to include draft week trades, and I'll just include draft pick thoughts in a separate post. 6/26 Update: You can find what every team did during the draft HERE.

As usual with these type of posts, I'll be updating constantly to make this your one-stop shop for all of the deals, with the newest transactions at the top. I'll make note of the date when whoever broke the news tweeted it along with my projections of the salaries based on reported contract details, and "Command F" is definitely helpful to find specific players as the deals pour in. Figures for existing contracts in trades usually come from Keith Smith on Spotrac, and stats are from Basketball Reference, RealGM, or the NBA's advanced stats page. The visual key consists of player options/team options/not fully guaranteed

6/30 Update: The NBA announced that the official salary cap came in slightly lower than projected: $140,588,00 with the luxury tax at $170,814,000, the First Apron $178,132,000, and the Second Apron $188,931,000. With next year's cap projected to be $154,647,000, I've updated max contract figures below based on this. Now back to the deals:


Sacramento sheds salary on San Antonio (Shams 10/14)

Spurs receive:
Jalen McDaniels$4,741,800
2031 2nd round pick
Cash consideration

Kings receive:
2025 2nd round pick (protected 31-55)

Scotto added the details on the picks as well as cash involved to help cover McDaniels' salary, which reportedly will be waived. After taking him as part of the Vezenkov salary dump, now Sacramento gives themselves a little more breathing room under the luxury tax. San Antonio isn't close to having to worry about that, so they used part of the Room MLE as a trade exception to add yet another future pick.

Magic extend Carter: 3 years, $59 million (Shams 10/7)
Wendell Carter Jr.$11,950,000$10,850,000$18,209,877$19,666,667$21,123,457

WCJ will now always be a part of NBA reporting history as Shams' first scoop since switching to ESPN. Since Carter's previous extension was so cheap, this is the most that he could receive in an extension with the starting salary 140% of the estimated average salary.

10/8 Update: Scotto adds that the last year is a team option.

Pelicans extend Alvarado: 2 years: $9 million (Shams 9/28)
Jose Alvarado$1,988,598$4,500,000$4,500,000

The former undrafted free agent and Two-Way player gets a safe guarantee with the player option to potentially make a lot more if he can stay healthy. This could be structured as $4,326,923 and $4,673,077, but it would make sense to have a flat rate for Alvarado to get a little more right away before opting out of this cheap deal.

Minnesota and New York pull off stunning swap of Kentucky big men (Shams 9/27)

Knicks receive:
Karl-Anthony Towns$49,205,800$53,142,264$57,078,728$61,015,192

Timberwolves receive:
Julius Randle$28,939,680$30,935,520
Donte DiVincenzo$11,445,000$11,990,000$12,535,000
Keita Bates-Diop$2,654,644
2025 Pistons 1st round pick (protected 1-13 in '25, 1-11 in '26, 1-9 in '27, then becomes '27 2nd)

Hornets receive:
TBD draft compensation to absorb salary, including DaQuan Jeffries

I originally started putting in a summary here, but this big of a deal deserved its own post.

Clippers extend Mann: 3 years, $47 million (Shams 9/27)
Terence Mann$11,423,077$15,500,000$15,666,667$16,000,000

Entering the last year of his bargain 2 year, $22 million extension, Mann could've received as much as $51.8 million over this same period, so it seems he's taking the guaranteed offer on the table now again. Marks reports that the first year starts at $15.5 million, so I'm guessing that each year will be relatively flat instead of the standard 8% raises for a $14,506,173/$15,666,667/$16,827,160 structure. And as Bontemps pointed out, Mann is still trade eligible immediately since this wasn't too high of an extension.

76ers extend Embiid: 3 years, $193 million (Shams 9/20)
Joel Embiid$51,415,938$55,224,526$59,539,095$64,302,223$69,065,350

Embiid had a $59,033,114 player option for the '26-'27 season that will be declined and replaced by the first year of this extension that's projected to be for slightly more. That's based on the maximum 10% cap increases the next two years to about $170.1 million and then taking 35% of that as a max player with 10+ years of experience.

Knicks sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/15)
Marcus Morris$2,087,519

Like with Shamet and Okeke, I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed deal to battle for New York's last roster spot. Morris has a more proven track record, though, so I could be wrong with the Knicks just willing to eat a guaranteed salary at final cuts.

Cavs re-sign Okorro: 3 years, $38 $33 million (Woj 9/14)
Isaac Okoro$11,728,395$12,666,667$13,604,938

Being a restricted free agent likely tempered Okoro's market, so keeping this a short deal at the relatively low average value could allow him to hit unrestricted free agency sooner. It looks like Cleveland will be a luxury tax team now barring a trade to shed a little bit of salary.

Update: Chris Fedor adds that it's actually for $33 million with an additional $5 million in incentives. which means that the starting salary will definitely be below what Okoro's $11,828,974 qualifying offer was. The Cavs really used the hammer of restricted free agency here to get a good deal.

Isaac Okoro$10,185,185$11,000,000$11,814,815

Knicks sign Shamet: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 9/14)
Landry Shamet$2,087,519

I'm guessing that this is non-guaranteed as he battles for the last roster spot since New York already has 14 guaranteed deals.

Update: The Knicks officially announced the signing as an Exhibit 9 contract, which is non-guaranteed.

Mavs re-sign Morris: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 9/7)
Markieff Morris$2,087,519

The veteran forward's return gives an already deep Dallas roster another front court option and should round out the option. AJ Lawson's non-guaranteed deal could be in danger now to get them down to 15 players by cut day.

Nuggets (finally) extend Murray: 4 years, $208 million (Woj 9/7)
Jamal Murray$36,016,200$46,394,100$50,105,628$53,817,156$57,528,684

I already had a post for this way back on June 27th when Shams reported that the two sides were close, but I'm putting it here again now that's a done deal with the updated numbers. As expected, it's a touch lower than what I originally had since the cap came in slightly lower than projections.

Clippers extend Zubac: 3 years, $58.6 million (Woj 8/30)
Ivica Zubac$11,743,210$18,086,420$19,533,333$20,980,247

After L.A. used a team option to leverage a bargain extension for Zubac last time, this is much more in line with the current center market.

Pacers extend McConnell: 4 years, $45 million (Woj 8/30)
T.J. McConnell$9,300,000$10,044,643$10,848,214$11,651,786$12,455,357

Going four years for a player who is already 32 is a little questionable, but it could've been to help keep the annual salaries lower after McConnell's great last couple of years.

9/3 Update: Marks reports that the third year is only partially guaranteed for $5 million and that the last year is a team option that then becomes only partially guaranteed for $5 million if picked up. 

Warriors extend Curry: 1 year, $62.6 million (Woj 8/29)
Stephen Curry$55,761,216$59,606,817$62,587,158

This 5% raise for just one year was the most that Golden State could offer the franchise icon due to the Over-38 rule. After a lot of the fanbase has complained about them not going all-in to try to contend with Curry still on the roster, this is a show of good trust between the two sides going forward.

Celtics sign Walker: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/28)
Lonnie Walker$2,087,519

We're at the point in the offseason where solid veterans have to settle for non-guaranteed minimums, and these updates might be coming to an end. If Boston decides to go with a full 15 man roster, Walker would be a some nice perimeter depth.

Pelcians sign Green: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/20)
Javonte Green$2,087,519

Green has been an underrated wing that could help fill out New Orleans' bench well, and Andrew Lopez reports that this deal is fully guaranteed.

76ers sign Yabusele: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams that it was close, then Scotto 8/18)
Guerschon Yabusele$2,087,519

The 16th pick in the 2016 draft has been generating buzz since his standout Olympics performance, where he averaged 14 points in 23:19 minutes as the second-leading scorer for France...and had one of the highlights of the tournament in the finals.
It was up in the air if Yabusele would try to make it back to the NBA since he reportedly has a $2.5 million buyout with Real Madrid, and Philadelphia can only contribute $825,000 towards that, per John Hollinger. That means that most of this season's salary will go towards the buyout since Yabusele only lasted two seasons in his first NBA stint to qualify for the salary above, but the 28 year old could increase his future earning potential by filling a hole for this new-look Sixers squad. While I think the "French Draymond" moniker from when he was drafted isn't that accurate, Yabusele can bring some tough defense and more size (6'8", 260 lbs) than their other forward options. He's shot 41% (345 of 841) on threes across all competitions the past three seasons in Europe, and if he can come close to that with the NBA line, he'll have much more staying power this time around.

Jazz sign Mills: 1 year, minimum contract (Woj 8/14)
Patty Mills$2,087,519

As with other veterans of 10+ years, he'll earn $3,303,771 with the subsidized cap hit.

Jazz sign Mykhailiuk: 4 yeras, $15 million (Woj 8/9)
Svi Mykhailiuk$3,488,372$3,662,791$3,837,209$4,011,628

Going this many years for such a low cost (his minimum as a six-year vet would've been about $12.3 million) is a big odd, so I'm fairly confident that Utah gave him a slight bump this year to have control of his future with non-guaranteed future seasons.

8/12 Update: Keith Smith confirms my suspicions with two non-guaranteed years followed by a team option like I had above.

Spurs sign Flynn: 1 year, minimum contract (Shams 8/7)
Malachi Flynn$2,087,519

San Antonio already has 15 players signed, so I'm guessing that this is a non-guaranteed minimum.

Jazz to renegotiate-and-extend Markkanen: 5 years, $238 million; $220 million in new money (Shams 8/6 Woj 8/7)
Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$39,143,476$42,274,954$45,406,433$48,537,911

Lauri Markkanen$42,176,400$43,720,568$47,218,213$50,715,859$54,213,504

This won't be agreed to until tomorrow or later so that Markkanen can ensure that he won't be traded this season since there will be a six-month waiting period once the deal is signed, and the Trade Deadline is February 6th. In the article from Shams, Slater, and Tony Jones, they reported that the "deal is projected to be worth upwards of $200 million over five years." A 30% max contract that another team could offer Markkanen next summer is expected to be for $199,494,630 over four years based on the rising cap, so that would seem to be the floor for his extension. My projection above is based on Utah using $24,131,856 of their cap space to bump up his current $18,044,544 salary to his max for this season, and then spreading the remaining $175,362,774 over the next four years. 

If it does end up being "only" in that $200 million range for total money as the report indicates, that would be a surprising value for the Jazz. Besides the $199.5 million from other teams, they could offer Markkanen as much as $269 million over five years if he hits free agency. A renegotiation-and-extension in this way would mean that he only goes on the books over the next four seasons for somewhere around that $175 million number above, after the $24.13 million raise this year. Being able to use their cap space to provide their star with the security of the massive deal now rather than waiting for free agency seems to have provided a ton of flexibility in negotiations.

8/7 Update: Well me playing around with the potential numbers based on The Athletic's report turned out to be a huge waste of time because Woj now reports that it's $220 million in new money for a total of $238 million, which makes way more sense. That means that after the $24.13 million raise this year, Markkanen will have about $195.87 million left on his extension over the next four seasons, so the Jazz will have his cap hits at a hair under his max over that span. This is obviously more than the offer that I said other teams could give him next year, and he will earn about $12.15 million more over these five years than if he just re-signed on a four-year deal next summer.